Yugoslavia loses Kosovo, Slovenia and Croatia but not BH, Montenegro and Macedonia, is it possible? and what POD is required?
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Yugoslavia loses Kosovo, Slovenia and Croatia but not BH and Macedonia
- Thread starter kasumigenx
- Start date
MSZ
Banned
Slovenia and Croatia could secede without Bosnia and Herzegovina if Belgrade simply accepted them leaving in 1992,but not accepting Bosnia do it. I doubt anyone in the world would lift a finger to help the Bosniaks, and if the Serbs used the same resources they used in the war with Croatia against only Bosnia, they would succeed in keeping it down. Macedonia and Montenegro could stick with Yugoslavia simply by not wanting to leave it - note how long the union between Serbia and Montenegro lasted OTL.
As for Kosovo, that is much more difficult. The only reason Kosovo exists as a seperate entity is NATO bombings, which occured only to the bad press the Serbs got in BBC and CNN during the civil war (and possibly Clinton wanting to be remembered as a war president to help Gore if you want to believe that). So you would need the war with Croatia both be at least as bad as OTL to create the anti-Serbian sentiment, but shorter so that it doesn't get to Bosnia. This would still leave the circumstances necessary for seperate Kosovo, while keeping Yugoslavia with most of its members.
Perhaps some Serbian general acts very stupid and uses chemical weapons against the Croat civilians in 1992. This causes massive global outrage with calls for an intervention, big enough for Milošević to decide to cut his losses and apologizes - beginning peace talks with the Croats and Slovens, granting them independence. In Bosnia, which most likely would begin to protest and demand same treatment he acts more cautiously to prevent attrocities from happening but doesn't quite prevent all of them - Croatia doesn't invade, NATO doesn't bomb, but the Serbs aren't exactly liked either. Once the Albanians start to act, he goes more hard on them, and gets slapped like OTL, but not enough to force him to abandon Bosnia. This last part is however very difficult to pull off - as a Serbian nationalist he would more likely be willing to give up BH than Kosovo. So it would most likely be a NATO demand which only refers to Kosovo as part of a peace agreement.
As for Kosovo, that is much more difficult. The only reason Kosovo exists as a seperate entity is NATO bombings, which occured only to the bad press the Serbs got in BBC and CNN during the civil war (and possibly Clinton wanting to be remembered as a war president to help Gore if you want to believe that). So you would need the war with Croatia both be at least as bad as OTL to create the anti-Serbian sentiment, but shorter so that it doesn't get to Bosnia. This would still leave the circumstances necessary for seperate Kosovo, while keeping Yugoslavia with most of its members.
Perhaps some Serbian general acts very stupid and uses chemical weapons against the Croat civilians in 1992. This causes massive global outrage with calls for an intervention, big enough for Milošević to decide to cut his losses and apologizes - beginning peace talks with the Croats and Slovens, granting them independence. In Bosnia, which most likely would begin to protest and demand same treatment he acts more cautiously to prevent attrocities from happening but doesn't quite prevent all of them - Croatia doesn't invade, NATO doesn't bomb, but the Serbs aren't exactly liked either. Once the Albanians start to act, he goes more hard on them, and gets slapped like OTL, but not enough to force him to abandon Bosnia. This last part is however very difficult to pull off - as a Serbian nationalist he would more likely be willing to give up BH than Kosovo. So it would most likely be a NATO demand which only refers to Kosovo as part of a peace agreement.
abc123
Banned
Never the less, IMO Serbs could easily pull this out. After all, Filipović, Zulfikarpašić and some other Muslim leaders were for staying in Yugoslavia, and if Milošević promised to them that he won't carve BiH out, it is possible. Croats in Croatia would IMO be willing to trade BiH and Croats there for getting out of Yugoslavia without war and Croats in BiH are not strong enough to force separation of BiH alone. About Macedonia, IMO Milošević could easily pressure them to submit.
So, basicly, what you need is that Milošević changes over his mind.
So, basicly, what you need is that Milošević changes over his mind.
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Good luck for any Serbian Yugoslav leadership trying to let Kosovo cedece, or a TL that would achieve that. Internal autonomy with collaborating K-Albanian leadership is a definite possibility once the worst Serb chauvinism cools off, but outside of a hundred days of a strategic bombing campaign from a global superpower there are few things that would dislodge Serbian authorities from Kosovo i Metohije.
At best they'd cedece the southern part and keep the mineral-rich north that's firmly ethnically Serb-majority anyway.
At best they'd cedece the southern part and keep the mineral-rich north that's firmly ethnically Serb-majority anyway.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Another factor that led to Kosovo becoming Albanian was the poor enforcement of border security which allowed Albanians from Hoxha's Albania to cross into Kosovo to live there. Perhaps an earlier PoD where Tito and Hoxha sign an agreement on establishments of border security would help slow down the Albanian exodus.
Never the less, IMO Serbs could easily pull this out. After all, Filipović, Zulfikarpašić and some other Muslim leaders were for staying in Yugoslavia, and if Milošević promised to them that he won't carve BiH out, it is possible. Croats in Croatia would IMO be willing to trade BiH and Croats there for getting out of Yugoslavia without war and Croats in BiH are not strong enough to force separation of BiH alone. About Macedonia, IMO Milošević could easily pressure them to submit.
So, basicly, what you need is that Milošević changes over his mind.
But why would Milosevic leave Croatia alone? There's still half a million Serbs there, and a great majority of them living in an area leaning on BiH and Serbia. And they don't want to live in an independent Croatia.
The bottom line is, without a very, very early PoD (going well before 1900) the scenario as set up in the OP isn't going to happen. Because of the population structures and internal Yugoslav borders, Croatia and BiH pretty much go together. In other words, there's three options: 1) Serbia forces both to remain in Yugoslavia, 2) both lose chunks to Serbia and get independence for the remaining parts, or 3) both get independence and secede from Yugoslavia (which is basically what happened in OTL, the internal mess in BiH notwithstanding). One staying in Yugoslavia and the other not is just not going to happen unless we have a very early PoD that drastically altered the situation in the region, and such a PoD may well have butterflied Yugoslavia away anyway.
This helps, but probably keeps Yugoslavia together as some sort of a confederation which eventually leads to a (more) peaceful dissolution.
The trick is to find a potential Serbian leader who could do this in what was a very difficult time and who would not play the populist nationalist card when it was clear that doing so would help him/her get to power.
Why would Belgrade let Croatia go like that? In 1992 there's half a million Serbs there in RSK who want to unite with Serbia. In 1992 there's almost 3 million Bosniaks and Croats in BiH (which gives them a solid 60%+ majority) who have just seen Serbs go completely nuts in Croatia, why would they want to stay in Yugoslavia? And why would Croatia refuse to support them in their independence quest? By weakening Serbs in BiH it's helping Croats there, and also creating conditions to liberate its own areas taken over by Serbs most of which leaned on BiH. There's no way Serbs can avoid a war in Bosnia in this situation. The best they can do is modify their behaviour to avoid the worst excesses, but they'll struggle to get to keep all of Bosnia in Yugoslavia. In fact it'll be impossible for them.
Like I said, there's three ways it could go, and not one of them is that all of Croatia is out of Yugoslavia, and all of BiH in it.
I think you are right.
Unless, maybe a longterm population exchange, like Pakistan/India after 1947, partly paeceful partly violent.
Having the Croatian Serbs going to Bosnia and the Croatic Bosnians going to Croatia, this still leaves the Mslims in Bosnia, probably won't work.
Kosovo leaving an still somehow intact Yugolavia is in my humble opinion historically impossible, even with a fundamentalistic islamic Albanian State.
Oh, I agree that if the population structure of BiH and Croatia is different (along the lines you've suggested) then that's another story.
But this would require a much earlier PoD than the OP had in mind (at least that's how I understood it).
Mother Teresa was an Albanian from Kosovo actually and was born before Tito was in politics..
No, just no.
Kosovo has been ethnically Albanian for centuries, as can be seen by this map from 1898;
A "Greater Serbia" held BiH wouldn't be the whole BiH. Herzegovina is predominantly Croat and would either a) have a sort of Anschluss with Croatia or b) the Serbs try keeping it and it turns into a war with Croatia and just as much of a clusterfuck as OTL.
It may be possible to get a stable border with some level of population exchange. Serbia could get Eastern Bosnia, whilst Croatia gets the rest. This is quite similar to the Tudjman-Milosevic deal in OTL, but perhaps more stable. Will likely cause significant tensions between Bosniaks and Croatia, as the Bosniaks will want their own state, but it would be so small that it would be unviable (similar to the Chechnya situation).
Having Serbia give up Kosovo relatively peacefully? Sorry, but not in a million years, and thats the truth.
Slovenia is pretty easy, quite similar to OTL.
It may be possible to get a stable border with some level of population exchange. Serbia could get Eastern Bosnia, whilst Croatia gets the rest. This is quite similar to the Tudjman-Milosevic deal in OTL, but perhaps more stable. Will likely cause significant tensions between Bosniaks and Croatia, as the Bosniaks will want their own state, but it would be so small that it would be unviable (similar to the Chechnya situation).
Having Serbia give up Kosovo relatively peacefully? Sorry, but not in a million years, and thats the truth.
Slovenia is pretty easy, quite similar to OTL.
Cook
Banned
Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority predates the state of Yugoslavia itself (by several centuries); the Paris Peace conference in 1919 knew of it and was reluctant to have Serbia control Kosovo, but since no western forces could be committed and the Serbians already had forces on the ground it was a fate accompli.
Err... Who the heck are Valaques? ?? Wallachians=Romanians? ?? and if so, what are they doing down there? If not, who?
Aha http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valaques native Romance speakers, even if not "Romanian".
Hunh. Didn't know there were any down there, that late.
Angel Heart
Banned
As Hrvatskiwiki said, Serbs giving up Kosovo is not going to happen.
As for dividing Bosnia ethnically (Serbia + Republika Srspka, Banovina Croatia and a Muslim rump state) it would have been managable if the international community tried to solve this mess in a pragmatic way instead of insisting on unnecessary melodrama. The world could also hold single individuals who commited warcrimes accountable for their deeds instead of whole ethnic groups so that the whole talk about the
moral injustice
towards ethnic group X is rendered moot. This will of course create a precedence for the Greater Albanian movement in Serbia and Macedonia, though I do not see how this would be different from OTL.
EDIT: Keeping the Muslims in Yugoslavia might have been managable if Abdić was president of Bosnia.
A Serb nationalist who? A communist and opportunist hyena like Milošević? Not in this universe at least.
As for dividing Bosnia ethnically (Serbia + Republika Srspka, Banovina Croatia and a Muslim rump state) it would have been managable if the international community tried to solve this mess in a pragmatic way instead of insisting on unnecessary melodrama. The world could also hold single individuals who commited warcrimes accountable for their deeds instead of whole ethnic groups so that the whole talk about the
EDIT: Keeping the Muslims in Yugoslavia might have been managable if Abdić was president of Bosnia.
A Serb nationalist who? A communist and opportunist hyena like Milošević? Not in this universe at least.
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