Churchill tells the Soviets where to go

[Titus_Pullo]

INJUSTICE! The Week. Communist Party of Great Britain. 16 July 1941.
Comrades! Defenders of Liberty! Champions of Freedom! Peoples and Workers of Great Britain and of the world!
A grave INJUSTICE has been perpetrated by Britain's Prime Minister!
The Soviet people cried out in desperate need and the Prime Minister has ignored them!
He has sided with the Fascists and has shown his war mongering cold capitalist indifference to the sufferings of our brave Russian comrades!
This INJUSTICE must not be allowed to stand!
...
The World At War. Episode 5: Barbarossa Thames Television. 21 November 1973. Transcript.

Narrator Sir Laurence Olivier: The Soviets had expected Britain to join in the fight against their common enemy and had sent Molotov to discuss the terms of this alliance with Churchill. Foreign Minister Molotov was utterly unprepared for the answer he received once in London.

Sir Richard Abercrombe, Executive Assistant to Claude Dansey: In so many words, yes, he did tell Molotov no. But, as Winston was.. well.. Winston, he managed to tell Molotov "no" in a rather more colorful manner. Yes, colorful indeed. I was not in attendance of that meeting but Dansey later told me that those who were, and who had some familiarity with comrade Molotov, had never seen the man quite so distraught and angered in public, as he quickly left the Prime Minister's office. It must have been quite the exchange.

Abercrombe: It was a nasty surprise for them that not only did Churchill refuse to ally England with Russia, but refused to do in so vehement a fashion. This vehemence being due to the Sill Memo from our American friends in their FBI. We'd received that back in mid-1940 and it had caused quite the stir among MI6. Marcus Sill was one of the American businessmen who Dansey had developed as part of his "Z" network. Well, it turns out Mr. Sill had also developed some contacts with America's intelligence efforts and they used him to deliver this information to Dansey directly - completely sidestepping the normal channels of intelligence information sharing we'd developed with them up until that point. But, given the nature of that information, this was somewhat understandable.

Olivier: The Sill Memo, while it didn't list specific names, was specific enough in its listing of the positions held by the Soviet agents working in the British government and MI6 that they were soon identified, put under constant watch, and their actions recorded. The results were damning indeed.

Abercrombe: You have to remember that this was at the height of the Blitz. In the course of our counter-espionage investigation we learned that several of these agents were reporting back to Moscow the results of the daily and then nightly Luftwaffe raids upon England. The Soviets then dutifully shared that information with Berlin and the Jerrys used that to improve their bombing methods. Churchill was absolutely livid when he found that the Soviets, who were officially neutral in the war between the Nazis and England, were so actively aiding the Germans against us. He had Dowding work up a study of how many more Britons died as a result of the increased accuracy of those Luftwaffe raids. The details of that study only further enraged Winston. Those of us in MI6 who were privy to this were somewhat surprised that Winston didn't have Molotov shot the moment he set foot in his office.

Olivier: Far from joining forces with the Soviets, Churchill instead ordered the expulsion of all Soviet citizens from the United Kingdom and further ordered MI6 to arrest and terminate all Soviet espionage efforts in England.

Abercrombe: By that time we'd gotten about all we could from the surveillance of these Soviet agents. So when the Prime Minister gave us the order it was enacted rather sprightly. We later learned that the Soviets were rather astonished at the grasp we had of their spy operations within the United Kingdom. The trials all commenced within a matter of weeks and by late September, I believe it was, they'd come to their conclusion. Winston actually made it a point to personally attend the hangings of those Soviet agents who'd transmitted that bombing information back to Moscow. The man's rage and sense of betrayal at their treason was that deep. I wouldn't have been surprised had he pulled the hangman's lever himself.

Olivier: As Molotov returned to Moscow, the Soviet Union found itself increasingly alone in facing Germany's advance...

...
The Secret War: Episode 12 Allies As Close As Brothers. The History Channel. Los Angeles. 16 May 1996. Transcript.
The Secret War Interviewer William Parsons: And this was their "returning the favor?"

William George - Executive Assistant to Overseas Secret Service Director William Donovan: Well, sort of.
Parsons: Sort of?

George: Yes, when we had Marcus Sill deliver that intelligence information to MI6's Assistant Chief, Claude Dansey, it caused quite a row over there. On the one hand, they recognized that the information was too sensitive to have gone through normal channels as the Soviet agents within MI6 would've caught wind of it. On the other hand however, the way it was delivered seemed to be somewhat insulting to the Brits. There was indeed some ego games going on between the two intelligence operations. The Brits were initially quite haughty and disdainful of our efforts. And they had some reason to be. The US hadn't had the need to be so professional about the intelligence business. The Brits, with their empire to maintain, had. And they weren't hesitant about showing that off. So, when we had the opportunity to rub their noses in how we'd achieved this intelligence coup - and specifically how it revealed all the rats in their own house which they hadn't found themselves - we took it. And they didn't like that aspect of it.

Parsons: And how was the "November Report" a part of that?

George: Well, in the course of their catching all those Soviet rats, the Brits unearthed quite a bit of information about the rats we still had in our house. Specifically, those that riddled the Roosevelt White House and also among the Democrats in Congress. You see, out of necessity, the Brits had developed a very intense understanding of US politics. They learned this in order to not make any misstep in their efforts to get us into the war on their side. So, when they learned how many Soviet spies, Soviet sympathizers, and Soviet dupes were operating amongst the Democrats they realized that if they shared that information with the Roosevelt administration it might get denied and covered up. So, they choose to spread that info around.

Parsons: And that's how Joseph Martin got a hold of it?

George: That caused a real explosion when FDR learned of it. Things got more than a bit hot between Roosevelt and Churchill after that. And it was only after Pearl that the two started talking to each other once again. The Brits got what they wanted though. Martin was smart enough to realize he had a powerful political weapon in his hands. Had the Japanese not attacked Pearl when they did, Martin probably would've used that info to shatter Roosevelt and the Democrats in the 1942 Mid-Term elections. As it was, he used it to wring some huge concessions from FDR and McCormack. It also led to some major house cleaning at the White House. The Soviets lost all their contacts, their spies, and their friends they'd worked so hard to insert in the Roosevelt Administration. The purge within the Democratic Party continued well into mid-42 and even enabled Dies to nail the "fellow travelers" the Soviets had on his committee. Hoover had a field-day with that information and began rolling up one Soviet spy network after another. The FBI was already in the process of that - it's how we got that original information about the Soviet spies in Britain's MI6 after all - but this really helped hone the FBI's efforts.

George: The political fallout of all this was that the Soviet Union became completely untouchable in terms of US assistance. The Democrats weren't going to risk being seen as "Communist dupes" knowing the Republicans had all that intelligence information on hand. And for their part, the Republicans were quite content to stick it to the Democrats for their years of pro-Soviet pandering during the 1930s. The Soviets had painted themselves into a corner with this one and had no one to blame but themselves as all their spying and manipulation efforts were revealed.
...
Churchill, W. Preventing the Nazis from seizing Russia's oil. 5 June, 1942. Speech presented at the British Parliament. London, England:

And so it is with a heavy heart and with no malice toward the suffering people of Russia that I have ordered the armed forces of the United Kingdom to preventatively take control of the oil fields located in the area north of Persia.
Doing so will prevent the Nazis from gaining access to the oil they so desperately need to continue their war against the rest of the world.
We make no permanent claim to this land and will gladly return it to the Russians once we have defeated the Nazi menace and the war is won.
But for the sake of England, we can not allow those oilfields to fall the Hitler's ravenous thugs.

[abc123]

Only thing I can say is: OMG!!! The butterflies, they are so huge......

MOAR

[Titus_Pullo]

Originally Posted by abc123

Only thing I can say is: OMG!!! The butterflies, they are so huge......

MOAR

In this case, Churchill has become convinced that the Soviets are a greater evil than the Nazis and that it serves the interests of the Crown to let the Nazis and the Soviets bleed each other out. Thus, no aid to from the UK to the USSR. And the Brits work extra hard to ensure there's no aid from the US to the USSR either.
As for the ripple effects, think on this a tad. In OTL, the Germans knew the Soviets "had backup" and paced their attacks accordingly. In this ATL, the Soviets stand alone. Thus there's more reason for the Germans to go all in and knock the Soviets out sooner than later.

Also, all that war aid the UK sent to Russia now remains in British hands and they certainly would've put it to use. How about a couple of extra squadrons of Spitfires to the Far East? Or those extra Valentines to Auchinleck.

The British aid was not a war winner in and of itself. Originally, its biggest effect was on Russian morale. The Soviet industrial capacity and manpower base was still there. And much of it had already been moved off to the Urals even before the war's start. America's aid only started coming in to Russia in late spring of '42.
So, what I'm seeing is a stronger UK and a weaker USSR - but not a mortally weaker USSR. At least not so initially. I'm also seeing a harder German push into Russia. That, as of necessity, means less force to go 'round elsewhere in the Reich - i.e. North Africa. Perhaps Erwin never gets any desert sand dermabrasion treatments but, instead, gets sent to swelter in the steppes. Thus the Brits have more forces on hand to reallocate there along the Soviet border on the contingency that the Soviets can't contain Fall Blau.

Oh, and they'd also have had at least some extra force in place out there in Singapore to "greet" the Japanese. Not much, but, considering how close a run thing it actually turned out to be... AND all that US aid which would've gone on its scenic rail journey across Siberia is instead now in arsenals in the US and UK. That too would make quite the difference.

So, come the summer of '42, the Soviets have held on but at a much more grievous cost. Which considering how grievous the cost was in OTL is saying quite a bit. By that time however, the harder push by the Germans is paying off. The Red Army hasn't been able to stem its losses fast enough to allow the replacement pipeline to fill up enough. And they've been falling back and falling back. Moscow held in this ATL as British materials were not much, if any, factor in that fighting. The next several months though is where their want shows up ever more vividly. Same same with the US aid. Hence the British recognition of the Baku fields priority.

I don't think the Red Army would've been able to face down the Wehrmacht coming in from the north and the British coming up from the south. And after having slogged through all the depth of prepared defenses the Red Army had set up to stop them, the Germans would then have to deal with the Brits who would be otherwise fresh in their condition not having had to do such slogging.

[abc123]

One nitpick: British taking over of oil in Baku is equall declaration of war against of USSR. So, British will not do something like that except if Soviet Union is on his knees and Nazis are inches away from taking of Baku.

Also, IMO Britain has not enough trained soldiers for such operation.

[Titus_Pullo]

Originally Posted by abc123

One nitpick: British taking over of oil in Baku is equall declaration of war against of USSR. So, British will not do something like that except if Soviet Union is on his knees and Nazis are inches away from taking of Baku.

Also, IMO Britain has not enough trained soldiers for such operation.

The POD here occurred a full year before Barbarossa kicked off. In this ATL, Churchill learned not just of the fact that the Soviets had deeply penetrated Britain's government, and its various intelligence services, but that the Soviets were actively operating with the Nazis to help them better kill Britons. As this was at the height - or rather, the depth - of the Blitz, this didn't sit too terribly well with Churchill.

And in this ATL he had a full year to "get his Irish up" about it. Thus, he performed a different calculus when it came to the Nazi vs. Soviet equation. Thus, Churchill not only didn't view the Soviets as a worthwhile ally against the Germans but was hostile to the situation the Soviets found themselves in.
Part of that calculus is realizing that the Soviet Union was just as great a threat to the Kingdom as were the Nazis. Better then, to let the two evil empires bash each other's heads in and thus then allow the UK forces to come in later and put down which ever mortally weakened force was still standing. Or so goes the rationale.

In terms of manpower,the United Kingdom was superior to Nazi Germany. Superior in terms of industrial base. Superior in terms of resource access. Their militaries were essentially equivalent in terms of fighting capacity. The Brits were better at defense. Applying the advantages that Britain had in the long run meant defeat for the Nazis even if they knocked the Soviets out of the war first. The Brits simply had too many more men, too much bigger and economy, and too superior access to resources.

Yes, the Nazi's situation would be improved upon their securing the western portion of Russia and exploiting what they could from it. This primarily being the breadbasket of the Ukraine. There'd be more mineral wealth, yes, beyond that? The Heer would've had to have gotten up to, over, and through the Urals to get at the Soviet industrial capacity. And I rather doubt the Soviets would've left any of that intact for the Germans to have made any use of. Same same with the oilfields in the Caucuses. Squeezed between the Nazis coming in from one side and the Brits the other, those wells, their pumping stations, their pipelines, and their refineries all would've been blown. After that, both the Soviets and the Brits would be doing everything in their power to ensure the Germans gained nothing from those fields.

I'm also not sure that this would've knocked the Soviets out of the war enough so as to free the Heer to fully turn on the Brits in the West. And a UK backed by the US industrial might - with none of that might being diverted to help the Soviets - would be in a much better position to go after the Germans across the breadth of the Mediterranian. North Africa, in this scenario, would've already fallen the the Desert Army's lightning advances since it would've been strengthened by the weaponry not diverted to the USSR and faced a weaker opponent as the Germans would've concentrated on Russia and left the Italians to fend for themselves in that mess.

Or perhaps, instead of sending Rommel on a fool's errand to bail out the Italians, they'd sent someone who could actually understand the intent of his orders. Originally, the Afrika Corps was deployed with the intent of staving off the complete collapse of Italy's hold of North Africa. Rommel turned that into a license for a pell mell rush to the Suez. That forced some massive diversion of resources away from the Soviet campaign and it suffered as a result. Have Rommel seeking his glory in a panzer in the Ukraine and not in one in Tunisia, and the Axis might well have remained on the defensive in the desert.

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by Titus_Pullo

INJUSTICE! The Week. Communist Party of Great Britain. 16 July 1941.
Comrades! Defenders of Liberty! Champions of Freedom! Peoples and Workers of Great Britain and of the world!
A grave INJUSTICE has been perpetrated by Britain's Prime Minister!
The Soviet people cried out in desperate need and the Prime Minister has ignored them!
He has sided with the Fascists and has shown his war mongering cold capitalist indifference to the sufferings of our brave Russian comrades!
This INJUSTICE must not be allowed to stand!
...
The World At War. Episode 5: Barbarossa Thames Television. 21 November 1973. Transcript.

Narrator Sir Laurence Olivier: The Soviets had expected Britain to join in the fight against their common enemy and had sent Molotov to discuss the terms of this alliance with Churchill. Foreign Minister Molotov was utterly unprepared for the answer he received once in London.

Sir Richard Abercrombe, Executive Assistant to Claude Dansey: In so many words, yes, he did tell Molotov no. But, as Winston was.. well.. Winston, he managed to tell Molotov "no" in a rather more colorful manner. Yes, colorful indeed. I was not in attendance of that meeting but Dansey later told me that those who were, and who had some familiarity with comrade Molotov, had never seen the man quite so distraught and angered in public, as he quickly left the Prime Minister's office. It must have been quite the exchange.

Abercrombe: It was a nasty surprise for them that not only did Churchill refuse to ally England with Russia, but refused to do in so vehement a fashion. This vehemence being due to the Sill Memo from our American friends in their FBI. We'd received that back in mid-1940 and it had caused quite the stir among MI6. Marcus Sill was one of the American businessmen who Dansey had developed as part of his "Z" network. Well, it turns out Mr. Sill had also developed some contacts with America's intelligence efforts and they used him to deliver this information to Dansey directly - completely sidestepping the normal channels of intelligence information sharing we'd developed with them up until that point. But, given the nature of that information, this was somewhat understandable.

Olivier: The Sill Memo, while it didn't list specific names, was specific enough in its listing of the positions held by the Soviet agents working in the British government and MI6 that they were soon identified, put under constant watch, and their actions recorded. The results were damning indeed.

Abercrombe: You have to remember that this was at the height of the Blitz. In the course of our counter-espionage investigation we learned that several of these agents were reporting back to Moscow the results of the daily and then nightly Luftwaffe raids upon England. The Soviets then dutifully shared that information with Berlin and the Jerrys used that to improve their bombing methods. Churchill was absolutely livid when he found that the Soviets, who were officially neutral in the war between the Nazis and England, were so actively aiding the Germans against us. He had Dowding work up a study of how many more Britons died as a result of the increased accuracy of those Luftwaffe raids. The details of that study only further enraged Winston. Those of us in MI6 who were privy to this were somewhat surprised that Winston didn't have Molotov shot the moment he set foot in his office.

Olivier: Far from joining forces with the Soviets, Churchill instead ordered the expulsion of all Soviet citizens from the United Kingdom and further ordered MI6 to arrest and terminate all Soviet espionage efforts in England.

Abercrombe: By that time we'd gotten about all we could from the surveillance of these Soviet agents. So when the Prime Minister gave us the order it was enacted rather sprightly. We later learned that the Soviets were rather astonished at the grasp we had of their spy operations within the United Kingdom. The trials all commenced within a matter of weeks and by late September, I believe it was, they'd come to their conclusion. Winston actually made it a point to personally attend the hangings of those Soviet agents who'd transmitted that bombing information back to Moscow. The man's rage and sense of betrayal at their treason was that deep. I wouldn't have been surprised had he pulled the hangman's lever himself.

Olivier: As Molotov returned to Moscow, the Soviet Union found itself increasingly alone in facing Germany's advance...

...
The Secret War: Episode 12 Allies As Close As Brothers. The History Channel. Los Angeles. 16 May 1996. Transcript.
The Secret War Interviewer William Parsons: And this was their "returning the favor?"

William George - Executive Assistant to Overseas Secret Service Director William Donovan: Well, sort of.
Parsons: Sort of?

George: Yes, when we had Marcus Sill deliver that intelligence information to MI6's Assistant Chief, Claude Dansey, it caused quite a row over there. On the one hand, they recognized that the information was too sensitive to have gone through normal channels as the Soviet agents within MI6 would've caught wind of it. On the other hand however, the way it was delivered seemed to be somewhat insulting to the Brits. There was indeed some ego games going on between the two intelligence operations. The Brits were initially quite haughty and disdainful of our efforts. And they had some reason to be. The US hadn't had the need to be so professional about the intelligence business. The Brits, with their empire to maintain, had. And they weren't hesitant about showing that off. So, when we had the opportunity to rub their noses in how we'd achieved this intelligence coup - and specifically how it revealed all the rats in their own house which they hadn't found themselves - we took it. And they didn't like that aspect of it.

Parsons: And how was the "November Report" a part of that?

George: Well, in the course of their catching all those Soviet rats, the Brits unearthed quite a bit of information about the rats we still had in our house. Specifically, those that riddled the Roosevelt White House and also among the Democrats in Congress. You see, out of necessity, the Brits had developed a very intense understanding of US politics. They learned this in order to not make any misstep in their efforts to get us into the war on their side. So, when they learned how many Soviet spies, Soviet sympathizers, and Soviet dupes were operating amongst the Democrats they realized that if they shared that information with the Roosevelt administration it might get denied and covered up. So, they choose to spread that info around.

Parsons: And that's how Joseph Martin got a hold of it?

George: That caused a real explosion when FDR learned of it. Things got more than a bit hot between Roosevelt and Churchill after that. And it was only after Pearl that the two started talking to each other once again. The Brits got what they wanted though. Martin was smart enough to realize he had a powerful political weapon in his hands. Had the Japanese not attacked Pearl when they did, Martin probably would've used that info to shatter Roosevelt and the Democrats in the 1942 Mid-Term elections. As it was, he used it to wring some huge concessions from FDR and McCormack. It also led to some major house cleaning at the White House. The Soviets lost all their contacts, their spies, and their friends they'd worked so hard to insert in the Roosevelt Administration. The purge within the Democratic Party continued well into mid-42 and even enabled Dies to nail the "fellow travelers" the Soviets had on his committee. Hoover had a field-day with that information and began rolling up one Soviet spy network after another. The FBI was already in the process of that - it's how we got that original information about the Soviet spies in Britain's MI6 after all - but this really helped hone the FBI's efforts.

George: The political fallout of all this was that the Soviet Union became completely untouchable in terms of US assistance. The Democrats weren't going to risk being seen as "Communist dupes" knowing the Republicans had all that intelligence information on hand. And for their part, the Republicans were quite content to stick it to the Democrats for their years of pro-Soviet pandering during the 1930s. The Soviets had painted themselves into a corner with this one and had no one to blame but themselves as all their spying and manipulation efforts were revealed.
...
Churchill, W. Preventing the Nazis from seizing Russia's oil. 5 June, 1942. Speech presented at the British Parliament. London, England:

And so it is with a heavy heart and with no malice toward the suffering people of Russia that I have ordered the armed forces of the United Kingdom to preventatively take control of the oil fields located in the area north of Persia.
Doing so will prevent the Nazis from gaining access to the oil they so desperately need to continue their war against the rest of the world.
We make no permanent claim to this land and will gladly return it to the Russians once we have defeated the Nazi menace and the war is won.
But for the sake of England, we can not allow those oilfields to fall the Hitler's ravenous thugs.

I think FDR would also be livid at the Russians if he found out that Russian spies were riddling the White House. Whatever else he was, good or bad, he was a US nationalist and would NOT take kindly to ANYONE planting moles inside of the US government.

[Julian]

I think you have the right idea, and would add that lend lease overall was very ineffective until 1943. The British primarily gave the Soviets obsolete aircraft and vehciles, as did the Americans. Supplies of food and raw materials were minimal at best. This is because the Western Allies felt that the Soviet Union would inevitably lose to Germany and didn't want to sacrifice technology and materials for no reason. In the end Soviet victories from 1941 to early 1943 were entirely due to logistics, manpower, and improved Soviet performance. Further German advances beyond OTL would actually have resulted in even greater German defeats and an earlier Soviet victory.

[deamy]

Originally Posted by Julian

I think you have the right idea, and would add that lend lease overall was very ineffective until 1943. The British primarily gave the Soviets obsolete aircraft and vehciles, as did the Americans. Supplies of food and raw materials were minimal at best. This is because the Western Allies felt that the Soviet Union would inevitably lose to Germany and didn't want to sacrifice technology and materials for no reason. In the end Soviet victories from 1941 to early 1943 were entirely due to logistics, manpower, and improved Soviet performance. Further German advances beyond OTL would actually have resulted in even greater German defeats and an earlier Soviet victory.

Sure, but how would the Soviets manage without the radios, trucks and locomotives they got?

18,700 aircraft, obsolete or not, was also pretty significant.

[Julian]

Originally Posted by deamy

Sure, but how would the Soviets manage without the radios, trucks and locomotives they got?

18,700 aircraft, obsolete or not, was also pretty significant.

Not really, all the aircraft did was give the Germans more aces. And the majority of the locomotives, trucks, etc only came from 1943 onwards, AFTER German defeat was guaranteed.

[Titus_Pullo]

Originally Posted by Julian

I think you have the right idea, and would add that lend lease overall was very ineffective until 1943. The British primarily gave the Soviets obsolete aircraft and vehciles, as did the Americans. Supplies of food and raw materials were minimal at best. This is because the Western Allies felt that the Soviet Union would inevitably lose to Germany and didn't want to sacrifice technology and materials for no reason. In the end Soviet victories from 1941 to early 1943 were entirely due to logistics, manpower, and improved Soviet performance. Further German advances beyond OTL would actually have resulted in even greater German defeats and an earlier Soviet victory.

What might happen is that the battlefields of the Caucuses would be the only place in Europe where each side could get at each other on the ground. And both would be at the extremes of their supply lines. The Germans might have numerical advantage in total force but they'd have to put up with the Soviet's battling them to try and regain the rest of their country. And the Brits wouldn't have such problems.

Even with Churchill's not directly aiding the Soviets, that says nothing nor changes anything when it comes to Britain's being at war with Germany. The UK's fight against Germany would've continued but the Brits would've been in an arguably better condition to press it quicker and more favorably.
Especially if the Brits have secured North Africa such that they can transfer their military focus to Persia and points north. True, the Soft Underbelly would still be beckoning but the fight in hand would be in the Caucuses. The Turks would be playing a greater role as the battles then would be right next door to them.

What I'm envisioning is a war with a stronger UK after the middle of 1941 than in OTL. And a vastly weaker Soviet Union after the middle of 1942. Especially if they do lose the oilfields of the Caucuses.
It would be an awfully long, long way back into Europe's heart for the Brits to drive the Germans if they used the Caucuses as the jumping off point. So, I don't see that happening. There'd have to be something a whole lot closer. That Underbelly thing again.

Out in Asia, there's a strong likelihood that the Japanese might decide to throw in with Hitler in having a go at the Soviets once more. Particularly if it is more apparent that the Far East of the USSR has truly been stripped bare by mid '42. The Japanese had all those troops sitting around in China doing little else aside from consuming vast amounts of logistics and slaughter as many Chinese as they'd a fancy for each day. But then, at that time, Siberia really was just a great big wasteland full of nothing but trees and steppes. Not much in the way of developed resources to make worth invading.

I could see one of their more "intense" local army commanders taking things into his own hands and charging across the border to avenge the humiliations of Nomonhan back in '38. And, depending on just how drawn down the Soviet outpost he comes across, it might inspire a wider attack or yet another humble abasement from Tokyo.

Plus, if the Soviet Union implodes - perhaps by '43, let's say, there might then be room for the various Western states to suddenly discover all these new and independent Russian liberation movements calling for Western aid in fighting the Fascists. Sort of like a replay of things in Russia prior to the Bolsheviks getting a grip on things. The Independent Democratic Republics of Vladivostok allying with the United States and joining in its fight against the Japanese might be something to consider.

Same same with the newly Independent Republic of Azerbaijan formally applying for membership in the United Nations after being recognized by the US, the UK, and France and having been granted co-belligerent status. This, alongside the Georgians applying for the same thing. Depending on how badly and how quickly the Soviet Union implodes in the face of the continued German assaults and their lack of go-juice now that the Germans and the UK has either occupied and / or smashed everything around Baku, we could see such a dissolution take place as well.

As to the body counts of the Nazis, the Final Solution ran up a butcher's bill of what 10 million including six million Jews? And that equates to the Soviet's 50 million plus?

[The Red]

Originally Posted by Titus_Pullo

As to the body counts of the Nazis, the Final Solution ran up a butcher's bill of what 10 million including six million Jews?

Let's not forget the 27 Million Soviets, or the 5 million Poles, or the other 2 million across the rest of Europe. All in 5 and a half years.

[Arachnid]

Looking forward to seeing where you take this. I love a good combi Nazi-Soviet-screw, I hope you can deliver

[Julian]

Originally Posted by Titus_Pullo

Snip

Reading the works of David Glantz and other authors, I would say that it is decidedly impossible for Fall Blau to achieve any kind of strategic victory. At most there will be short term victories, but taking Stalingrad or Baku are well out of reach, and the cost of trying to get there is enormous. The distance from the Mius River to Baku is further than the distances the Germans covered in Barbarossa IOTL.

On Japan, the Soviets cycled in 600,000 men from various units in order to forestall Japanese aggression. Any Japanese attack, even if the Soviets are doing worse, will be torn apart.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by deamy

Sure, but how would the Soviets manage without the radios, trucks and locomotives they got?

18,700 aircraft, obsolete or not, was also pretty significant.

They won't overrun Europe and run out of steam after clearing the Germans out of the USSR proper. Which their strength is over-sufficient for. Past that? No.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Titus_Pullo

What might happen is that the battlefields of the Caucuses would be the only place in Europe where each side could get at each other on the ground. And both would be at the extremes of their supply lines. The Germans might have numerical advantage in total force but they'd have to put up with the Soviet's battling them to try and regain the rest of their country. And the Brits wouldn't have such problems.

Even with Churchill's not directly aiding the Soviets, that says nothing nor changes anything when it comes to Britain's being at war with Germany. The UK's fight against Germany would've continued but the Brits would've been in an arguably better condition to press it quicker and more favorably.
Especially if the Brits have secured North Africa such that they can transfer their military focus to Persia and points north. True, the Soft Underbelly would still be beckoning but the fight in hand would be in the Caucuses. The Turks would be playing a greater role as the battles then would be right next door to them.

What I'm envisioning is a war with a stronger UK after the middle of 1941 than in OTL. And a vastly weaker Soviet Union after the middle of 1942. Especially if they do lose the oilfields of the Caucuses.
It would be an awfully long, long way back into Europe's heart for the Brits to drive the Germans if they used the Caucuses as the jumping off point. So, I don't see that happening. There'd have to be something a whole lot closer. That Underbelly thing again.

Out in Asia, there's a strong likelihood that the Japanese might decide to throw in with Hitler in having a go at the Soviets once more. Particularly if it is more apparent that the Far East of the USSR has truly been stripped bare by mid '42. The Japanese had all those troops sitting around in China doing little else aside from consuming vast amounts of logistics and slaughter as many Chinese as they'd a fancy for each day. But then, at that time, Siberia really was just a great big wasteland full of nothing but trees and steppes. Not much in the way of developed resources to make worth invading.

I could see one of their more "intense" local army commanders taking things into his own hands and charging across the border to avenge the humiliations of Nomonhan back in '38. And, depending on just how drawn down the Soviet outpost he comes across, it might inspire a wider attack or yet another humble abasement from Tokyo.

Plus, if the Soviet Union implodes - perhaps by '43, let's say, there might then be room for the various Western states to suddenly discover all these new and independent Russian liberation movements calling for Western aid in fighting the Fascists. Sort of like a replay of things in Russia prior to the Bolsheviks getting a grip on things. The Independent Democratic Republics of Vladivostok allying with the United States and joining in its fight against the Japanese might be something to consider.

Same same with the newly Independent Republic of Azerbaijan formally applying for membership in the United Nations after being recognized by the US, the UK, and France and having been granted co-belligerent status. This, alongside the Georgians applying for the same thing. Depending on how badly and how quickly the Soviet Union implodes in the face of the continued German assaults and their lack of go-juice now that the Germans and the UK has either occupied and / or smashed everything around Baku, we could see such a dissolution take place as well.

As to the body counts of the Nazis, the Final Solution ran up a butcher's bill of what 10 million including six million Jews? And that equates to the Soviet's 50 million plus?

Except that IOTL the USSR was able to crush with extreme prejudice Nazi military power before Lend-Lease had any major effects whatsoever. Even without it Soviet power is plenty sufficient to clear their own soil of the Nazi rapists and butchers occupying it. The locals here for one thing prefer the devil they knew to the Omnicidal maniacs they did not. In any event the absence of UK Lend-Lease still doesn't change anything, it requires US Lend-Lease not be given. And why precisely does FDR give a rat's ass what Churchill says here? It's not like the USA and UK were working for the same ends in a serious sense past crushing Nazi Germany to start with.

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by Julian

Reading the works of David Glantz and other authors, I would say that it is decidedly impossible for Fall Blau to achieve any kind of strategic victory. At most there will be short term victories, but taking Stalingrad or Baku are well out of reach, and the cost of trying to get there is enormous. The distance from the Mius River to Baku is further than the distances the Germans covered in Barbarossa IOTL.

On Japan, the Soviets cycled in 600,000 men from various units in order to forestall Japanese aggression. Any Japanese attack, even if the Soviets are doing worse, will be torn apart.

It depends on how much worse. If it becomes a choice between Moscow and Siberia, Moscow will win EVERY TIME.

[Karelian]

So, no declaration of war against Finland this time I assume?

[Johnrankins]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Except that IOTL the USSR was able to crush with extreme prejudice Nazi military power before Lend-Lease had any major effects whatsoever. Even without it Soviet power is plenty sufficient to clear their own soil of the Nazi rapists and butchers occupying it. The locals here for one thing prefer the devil they knew to the Omnicidal maniacs they did not. In any event the absence of UK Lend-Lease still doesn't change anything, it requires US Lend-Lease not be given. And why precisely does FDR give a rat's ass what Churchill says here? It's not like the USA and UK were working for the same ends in a serious sense past crushing Nazi Germany to start with.

If FDR is pissed at the Russians for them having spies in his government (and he would be) the USSR might get much less or even no lend-lease while everything goes to GB. If he holds on to his temper he will still demand concessions from the Russians to prove their good faith.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

I think FDR would also be livid at the Russians if he found out that Russian spies were riddling the White House. Whatever else he was, good or bad, he was a US nationalist and would NOT take kindly to ANYONE planting moles inside of the US government.

But would he engage in a public spectacle of handling this with the USA poised to enter a major war? The sheer degree of Soviet spying on the West arguably would have been dismissed as misinformation were it known and understood in the scale that it existed. The USA never liked the USSR, but FDR would spill American blood to save the British Empire when Hell froze over and not a second before that.

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by Johnrankins

If FDR is pissed at the Russians for them having spies in his government (and he would be) the USSR might get much less or even no lend-lease while everything goes to GB. If he holds on to his temper he will still demand concessions from the Russians to prove their good faith.

Which they'll give from desperation and rescind the moment the war's over. And to be crude everybody spied on everybody, but nobody did so to the sheer scale of the USSR. Now, would the USA of the 1930s believe things like HUAC having a Soviet spy on it?