After the Arrow

[LostCosmonaut]

After the cancellation of the CF-105 in 1958, the RCAF ended up purchasing the F-101, a design which they had originally rejected, and which was less capable than the CF-105. Assuming the Arrow still gets cancelled as in OTL, what other aircraft could the RCAF have purchased to fill the role? Personally, I think that if it could have been worked out, buying F-106s would have been a good idea.

[Just Leo]

Feb 20, 1959 was Black Friday. The RCAF made a specification. The F-106 met none of them. The Voodoo had 2 engines. They got a deal on them. The F-101 was a clearer crew conversion from CF-100, being a two-seater. The 106 was tied to the SAGE system, and had a single seat.

No other aircraft could have filled the role of unfulfilled legend that was the Arrow.

[bsmart111]

Well the F-4 was just coming out Maybe they get in on some early production slots and jump into the Phantom Phamily

[LostCosmonaut]

After doing some more research, it appears that the Canadians wanted a two seater due to the expected workload associated with interception at long range. I'm guessing that the reasoning behind the two engine requirement was for reliability reasons, although if I was in charge, I would have been willing to bend that to get something better than the 101 (of course, if I was in charge, I wouldn't have cancelled the Arrow in the first place).

[Matt Wiser]

McAir, from several books on the Phantom, made several proposals to the Canadians for F-4s: Ds first, then Es. They even made offers for Canadian firms to produce parts, though final assembly was still going to be in St. Louis. For whatever reason, McAir didn't "make the sale."

[CaliBoy1990]

Originally Posted by Just Leo

Feb 20, 1959 was Black Friday. The RCAF made a specification. The F-106 met none of them. The Voodoo had 2 engines. They got a deal on them. The F-101 was a clearer crew conversion from CF-100, being a two-seater. The 106 was tied to the SAGE system, and had a single seat.

No other aircraft could have filled the role of unfulfilled legend that was the Arrow.

Yep, a missed opprotunity. WITF was Diefenbaker thinking?

[bsmart111]

Originally Posted by Matt Wiser

McAir, from several books on the Phantom, made several proposals to the Canadians for F-4s: Ds first, then Es. They even made offers for Canadian firms to produce parts, though final assembly was still going to be in St. Louis. For whatever reason, McAir didn't "make the sale."

Well the F-101 was also a MacAir product. Maybe they decided that they could make more profit by selling the older plane. By keeping that production line running longer they got more useful life out of the tooling. At the time who could know the Phantom would remain in production as long as it did. Also if the Canadians were offered the D or E phantom that would have been a couple years later. I would think that if it was in the time frame when they decided on the Voodoo they would have been looking at early B's or at the latest C's

[NothingNow]

Originally Posted by Just Leo

Feb 20, 1959 was Black Friday. The RCAF made a specification. The F-106 met none of them. The Voodoo had 2 engines. They got a deal on them. The F-101 was a clearer crew conversion from CF-100, being a two-seater. The 106 was tied to the SAGE system, and had a single seat.

No other aircraft could have filled the role of unfulfilled legend that was the Arrow.

Except maybe the English Electric Lightning (possibly fitted out with Sparrows and/or sidewinders) or the Phantom.

[Matt Wiser]

The B was the Navy/Marine version optimized for carrier operations, while the C was just a B adapted for the Air Force (different tires, oxygen system, flying boom refueling). The D was what the AF really wanted when they were told by MacNamara "You are getting the Phantom as your main fighter, not the F-105". And McAir was pushing exports for the Phantom as early as 1963.

[bsmart111]

Originally Posted by Matt Wiser

The B was the Navy/Marine version optimized for carrier operations, while the C was just a B adapted for the Air Force (different tires, oxygen system, flying boom refueling). The D was what the AF really wanted when they were told by MacNamara "You are getting the Phantom as your main fighter, not the F-105". And McAir was pushing exports for the Phantom as early as 1963.

But if we are looking at the decision process taking place in 1959-60 The D is several years in the future (The Air Force isn't even on board yet) As I remember it the D had the avionics optimised for air to ground not air to air ( I need to look that up)

[Fearless Leader]

I do believe that Avro and the RCAF's first choice was a Canadian built version of the F-105 Thunderchief with an Iroquois engine after a limited run of Avro Arrows but that proposal didn't get very far. For a while I was toying with a scenario in which Avro builts the F-105 Thunderchief under licence and in so doing manages to improve the design so much that it's copied by Republic south of the border...

As for what Diefenbaker was thinking, I think it's important to realize that at the time of the Arrow's cancellation the aircraft was still not ready to be produced and was seeing it's per unit costs balloon far higher than anyone expected or was ready to pay. IMO there are striking parallels between the current debacle with the F-35 and the Avro Arrow. Mind you, I'm not saying that he handled the aftermath of the Arrow's cancellation well, just that his decision to cancel the Arrow is understandable.

The real boneheaded move was Avro completely ignoring the KISS principle in designing the Arrow. The Arrow airframe and concept were amazing and even with American built avionics and engines the CF-105 would've been an amazing fighter. The real killer was the overly complex fire control/missile system Avro insisted on developing. This sucked up millions of dollars and effectively led to the project delays and ballooning costs that caused Diefenbaker to kill the project. In a sense the Iroquois Engine as well was superfluous and also helped kill the project, though not contributing as much as the electronics side of things.

As for Canadian Phantoms, the RCAF wanted them badly in the late 60's but Trudeau effectively killed that idea. Get someone more conservative inpower and Canadian F-4's are practically guaranteed.

[Riain]

I think the time is tight for RCAF Phantoms, which was the most abvious plane to replace the Arrow in my mind. The first USN F4B sqn was operational in mid 1961, with the USMC in mid 1962 and the USAF F4Cs went operational in late 1964. The RN order in mid 1964 was the first authorised export sale.

Where in those hectic years would Canada get their Phantoms? Would Congress authorise a Phantom sale to Canada before they authorised one to Britain? With the US force re-equipping quickly when would Canadain Phantoms be delivered?

[bsmart111]

Originally Posted by Riain

I think the time is tight for RCAF Phantoms, which was the most abvious plane to replace the Arrow in my mind. The first USN F4B sqn was operational in mid 1961, with the USMC in mid 1962 and the USAF F4Cs went operational in late 1964. The RN order in mid 1964 was the first authorised export sale.

Where in those hectic years would Canada get their Phantoms? Would Congress authorise a Phantom sale to Canada before they authorised one to Britain? With the US force re-equipping quickly when would Canadain Phantoms be delivered?

Maybe McAir sets up Avro as a second source? I think Canada could easily take the place of Britian as the first foreign sale. After all it isn't really Foreign its Canada!!! Seriously with the integration of the RCAF in Norad I don't see that as a problem. I don't see the F-105 T'chief as a candidate for this role. Maybe as a strike fighter (competing against the CF-104) but not as an air defense fighter

[Riain]

I don`t think Congress would be much of a problem since Canada was already in NORAD and had access to SAGE. I do wonder about the scheduling; Canada needed a fighter by 1962-3 and not even the USAF had the Phantom by then, a stopgap would be needed.

I`ve just had a thought. BOMARC was a nail in the Arrow coffin, so WI Canada bought the Bloodhound (which I`ve seen described as a mini BOMARC) instead?

[Mig114]

When I saw this thread, I thought it was a WI or something on what aircraft would succeed the Arrow if it did enter service

[Bureaucromancer]

Originally Posted by Mig114

When I saw this thread, I thought it was a WI or something on what aircraft would succeed the Arrow if it did enter service

Interesting question, but not really one that you can come up with anything solid on. You're looking at a program happening in the late seventies and early eighties but beyond that a lot depends on the Arrow's in service reputation and what kind of butterflies are attached to the aircraft. Canada certainly has the capacity to keep building it's own aircraft, but I think that there is a very big question mark over whether we actually do or not. It does strike me that if the Arrow did enter service, and especially if there is a domestic replacement there is a very good chance that the F-35 could become a truly international program (actually, methinks however that aircraft shakes out in service we'll being seeing a LOT of TLs about different versions of it in coming years).

[Matt Wiser]

Originally Posted by bsmart111

But if we are looking at the decision process taking place in 1959-60 The D is several years in the future (The Air Force isn't even on board yet) As I remember it the D had the avionics optimised for air to ground not air to air ( I need to look that up)

Nope: fully optimized for air-to-air and air-to-ground. Ask Brig.Gen. Steve Ritchie (USAF, Ret.) about the D in air-to-air: he scored all five of his MiG kills in a D.

[TheMann]

To answer the original question of what happens after the Arrow, one should wonder how long the (fairly antiquated) electronics of the CF-105 would have lasted, and if and when replacements had been in order.

Assuming the full production run had been ordered and no major delays, the RCAF would have its first Arrow squadron in late 1962 or early 1963, with the full fleet being there by the end of 1965. Assuming the RCAF makes up six Arrow squadrons, that's about 80 aircraft produced. The Arrow was such a high performer that I would imagine that foreign sales would be nearly inevitable, but they would have to make upgrades to account for improving missile and electronic technology. I would imagine most CF-105As being rebuilt to later standards in the late 1960s and early 1970s to make use of Sparrow missiles. Thus equipped and rebuilt, many CF-105s would probably stay active until the early 1990s.

[Wet Coast]

Originally Posted by bsmart111

Maybe McAir sets up Avro as a second source? I think Canada could easily take the place of Britian as the first foreign sale. After all it isn't really Foreign its Canada!!! Seriously with the integration of the RCAF in Norad I don't see that as a problem. I don't see the F-105 T'chief as a candidate for this role. Maybe as a strike fighter (competing against the CF-104) but not as an air defense fighter

There was actually a proposal from the UK in 1964 for a coproduction agreement which would have seen Spey engined Phantoms built in Canada for both the UK and Canada. The RCAF strongly supported this but Paul Hellyer killed the idea. He did not trust the RCAF service chiefs and thought he had better ideas on air power. Can someone please write a timeline that has Hellyer abduced by the aliens he evidently now believes in (anal probing encouraged).

[simssss]

In hindsight f-4 would have been a better choice, but early f-4s had problems.

F-106 could have been another choice, but weapons on it were kinda bad.

Draken, mirage iii or english electric lightning maybe, but politcally not sure they would buy an european plane.