WI: Franz Ferdinand Lives

I was wondering, what sort of effects would there be if Franz Ferdinand survived his assassination attempt (or it simply didn't take place)? I don't honestly think this would prevent World War 1 from happening, though in my opinion it would likely be a different sort of war.

Anywho, what butterflies might his living create?
 
world war 1 still takes place...itll just happen differently....austria-hungary might come out of it still alive, or might not be in it at all....but itll still happen
 
world war 1 still takes place...itll just happen differently....austria-hungary might come out of it still alive, or might not be in it at all....but itll still happen

One thing I was actually amazed to find out was that apparently Ferdinand had an idea/proposal thing that would have changed Austria-Hungary into something called the United States of Greater Austria.

That would have been cool to see.
 
One thing I was actually amazed to find out was that apparently Ferdinand had an idea/proposal thing that would have changed Austria-Hungary into something called the United States of Greater Austria.

That would have been cool to see.
Actually I believe that's false. He wanted to centralize Austria-Hungary even more, while also wanting to create a Triple Monarchy. The USGA was a proposal, but pretty sure it wasn't made by Franz.
 

Cook

Banned
Actually I believe that's false.
You are correct, it was false. Franz Ferdinand didn’t like the concessions granted to the Hungarians to create the Dual Monarchy and wanted to do away with them. He also harboured ambitions of reclaiming lost Habsburg territories in Italy.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Actually I believe that's false. He wanted to centralize Austria-Hungary even more, while also wanting to create a Triple Monarchy. The USGA was a proposal, but pretty sure it wasn't made by Franz.

It is true. He went through several solutions at various times.

Francis Ferdinand regarded the nationality question as the most serious problem of the empire. Initially he sought a solution in terms of "crownland federalism," with the historic borders more or less retained (except for Hungary). Later he favored the idea of the "United States of Greater Austria," which called for a thorough restructuring along ethnic lines. Simultaneously, Francis Ferdinand also toyed with the "trialistic" solution, which was to be achieved by granting the South Slavs an equal partnership with the Austrians and Hungarians in the empire. Finally, due largely to threatening Serbian irredentism, he returned to a modified dualism, calling for a special position for Bosnia-Herzegovina as the "Kingdom of Rama."

http://www.bookrags.com/biography/francis-ferdinand/

Only god knows what solution he would have chosen if not assassinated and there was no WW1. It is quite understandable that he would go through different options, since it was such a hugely hard problem. He did not originate the idea, but in truth, how often do world leaders really come up with original ideas.

You could have also found the information on Wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Greater_Austria
 
WWI happens when Franz Ferdinand botches the next Ausgleich and all attempts to forestall the outbreak of an Austro-Hungarian civil war.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
WWI happens when Franz Ferdinand botches the next Ausgleich and all attempts to forestall the outbreak of an Austro-Hungarian civil war.

Yes it could happen. Will happen is too strong.

Germany has interest in it working. Russia has a interest both working and failing. France and the UK are unlikely to want to fight a war over A-H internal issues. It could easily result in a wider war, but it could also work out where A-H survives. France will be the key. Russia is not going to intervene without French support when A-H has German backing. And with all Russia internal issues, it is hard to know exactly what Russia would be like in 1917. And depending on the deal offered, Hungary might quickly accept the new arrangements.
 
Actually I believe that's false. He wanted to centralize Austria-Hungary even more, while also wanting to create a Triple Monarchy. The USGA was a proposal, but pretty sure it wasn't made by Franz.

You are correct, it was false. Franz Ferdinand didn’t like the concessions granted to the Hungarians to create the Dual Monarchy and wanted to do away with them. He also harboured ambitions of reclaiming lost Habsburg territories in Italy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Greater_Austria

Wikipedia states that it wasn't LITERALLY him who came up with it, but he did support the proposal.

There's at least one partial TL that I know of that starts with this.

thanks
 
If FF was "only" wounded, I think it would have gone quite as IOTL, Austria would simply demand the same /similar things from Serbia...

If the attempt never happened,... well then we will have days weeks monts (years) for something to come up - and war will start later, probably with different nations involved

Anarchists killing the Czar - Russia goes to civil war (Reds?) - Some nation (coalition) intervenes to restore the Romanoffs (rescue captured family members) - that would make a totally different TL

Otherwise the basic outcome will be the same.

It would get interesting if FJ dies and FF takees over - wondering if he could "save" a Habsburg - Monarchy (one thing why he was murdered was that Serbia feared that he could reform enough to keep the Croats, Slovenes /Cechs in the Monarchy...
 
A World War was by no means inevitable, the German General Staff estimated that by 1916/17 the combined strength of Russia and France would be too great for them meaning Germany would need to adopt a defensive posture. Certainly there would have been plenty of other Agadir style crises and a war of some kind over A-H or the Balkans would probably have happened but with the right diplomacy it need not have flared up as IOTL.
 
I concur,

'World War 1' or the 'Great War' if there was one, would be so alien to us that very little of the history of the 20thC would be repeated.

Without the Great War aviation development would have been far slower, the Communists would have probs never had there revolution without Tsar Nicolous making a massive blunder somewhere (unlikely). The 'Tank' would have never been developed and treaties like the Geneva Protocol would have never been signed. France and England woul not hae lost the 'flowers of their youth' nor have been bankrupted, and the US will most definiatly stay very isolationist.


What this means geopolitically?

The Colonial Empires of Britian and France would have retained much of their power into the early 20thC. Gandhis movement might never get up off the ground, and without the massive manpower losses of the Great War your going to see continued and greater industrialisation in Britian and France than there was historically.

While there will be more in Germany due to its greater wheat fields and heavy industry that developed as a later industrialisation process, your going to have all the 'high technology' of the world be primarially of British development.

Globally this will mean that with an isolationalist and 'anti-millitary' America Britian is going to retain and become stronger in her Great Power possition.

While not a superpower, it would be difficult for the continental powers of Europe rivial her, and between the three Great Powers your going to get a form of co-operative 'Cold War' where each is going to try to build the biggest penis on land, sea and air.

But without a major war lessons that were learned won't be.

By the mid-late 20s your still going to have infantry heavy armies, without the great artillery arsenels, machinguns will still be a fairly religated weapon, and mass stockpiles of chemical weapons will exsit, and these will be sat in a fairly passive-aggressive border post line.

Depending on how threatened the Entente powers feel towards the Kaiser of the given year you might get a detente forming into the late 20s to 30s if Germany does'nt pursue 'Großdeutschland' ideology.

This depends on Austria-Hungary's ability to keep the Slavic nation together. If the nation 'survives' to the late 20s, and the regining Kaiser is pro-Großdeutschland, then you might get a war between Austria-Hungary and Imperial Germany over Austria and the Sudenten lands.

Due to the industrial might, proximity and national sense. This war would be breif and over before it could ever develop into the trench warfare we have seen in our timeline. Hence Austria-Hungary would be forced to collaspe, and the Slavic states would fall into a civil war of self determiniation, that might not go well for the Hungarians and the Magyars.

This would be the kind of behaviour that might prevent a detente and might lead to the 'Great War' occuring in the mid 1930s. But I stress, only might.

Their is no reason to believe that we can actually predict a future without Princip succeeding, because it is such a pivotal moment in history. Europe was a specific tinderbox at the time, and any delay can change the course of events drastically.

The Short Answer: Nearly any possible history can result from Principe not succeeding.
 
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