The War that Didn't End: A Different 1945

[alternatehistorian]

The man behind the idea of a submarine aircraft-carrier was Admiral Yamamoto. In 1942, Yamamoto envisioned an underwater craft capable of launching attack bombers against U.S. Coastal cities. His original plan called for 18 such submarines, but after his death in April of 1943, the project was deprioratized. Construction plans were scaled back, due to the prevalent steel shortages, and eventually only two were built and entered service.

In 1944, the two submarine carries were organized into a flotilla consisting of I-400, I-401 and two AM-class submarines, which were smaller and carried only two Seiran bombers. The flotilla's total bomber force was 10.

In March 1945, Vice Adm. Ozawa considered a plan to use the flotilla to unleash biological weapons on the U.S. West Coast in revenge for the firebombing of Tokyo. But the idea was shelved for fear of U.S. Response. Instead, a plan to destroy the Panama Canal was given a go ahead.

Then on 6 August, Hiroshima was attacked.

POD: The Panama Canal strike was shelved and Ozawa's plan was given new life. As they waver because of the implications of attacking the US in this way, 9 August sees another attack, this time on Nagasaki.


EDIT based on criticisms:

The Japanese respond to the US attacks on their cities with a gamble--they threaten to send their submarine aircraft carriers to attack West Coast of the US with biological weapons. The Japanese make this threat through the Spanish embassy and it is kept a secret from the public by the administration because it is feared that it would spark panic and chaos on the West Coast.

The idea of submarine carriers is at first unbelievable to the administration and so Truman dismisses the threat as Japanese despair. But because no more bombs are available, the US is reduced to conventional bombing of Japan.

There is also the question of the naval blockade. US Admirals tell Truman that the Japanese won't get through.

Meanwhile, the Japanese continue preparations and the flotilla sails. But then the Emperor declares a surrender and orders all units to stand down.

But one of the Captains refuses to obey orders and sails on. Hours pass before the Japanese learn that one of the subs has not surrendered. They promptly notify the US about this.

[Julian]

Any uprising in Poland would be put down so quickly and brutally that it would be as if it never happened. The NKVD had lists of every single possible leader of an anti-communist resistance, and imprisoned or executed them within days.

[Julian]

Originally Posted by alternatehistorian

That came latter. But in 1945 the bulk of Soviet Army was in Germany.

No, it began in 1944 just days after the Soviets first entered Poland.

[marcus_aurelius]

AIUI the Americans DO have a third weapon in assembly, so there could be another InstaSun over Kokura by September latest.

Also, submarine attack fleet or no, Japan as a society would be coming apart at the seams by late 1945, due to USAAF firebombing and USN naval blockade.

And if the Japanese do go ahead with biological attack, it is likely the US pull a Operation Vegetarian. Halsey's prophecy would come true.

Marc A

[Garrison]

The US has no need to contemplate invasion, even without the A-bomb, and they will do whatever it takes to resume production, they can just carry on with conventional air attacks, utterly wrecking Japanese infrastructure and guaranteeing mass starvation. The eventual result will be the same, only with millions more Japanese dead and the US less likely to engage in post war reconstruction.

[Julian]

Originally Posted by alternatehistorian

So in 1945 the AK, the NSZ and others would no longer be able to do anything with the bulk of Soviet forces in Germany? The NKVD needed two years of occupation to put down all the resistance movements, locking up tens of thousands and pacifying the army.

Yes, they wouldn't be able to do anything. If they had tried they would have been crushed without mercy, and the Soviet advance would barely have been slowed. Poland in 1945 had been utterly broken by the Nazi occupation, and its disparate resistance movements were in no position to stage an uprising.

[SergeantHeretic]

I have to concur with he others, even without another bomb, witch the U.S> DOES have, or rather WILL have by September, all they have to do is keep up the firebombing and effectivly burn Japan's cities and infrastructure to the ground. Japanese society is already falling apart and all these attacks will do is convince the U.S> that they actually HAVE to wipe Japan fro mthe map.

[Sean Mulligan]

Why would the Japanese think that the U.S. was trying to eradicate Japanese civiliation when the U.S. was clearly asking for their surrender and the bombings would stop after the Japanese surrendered. Why would a Soviet Agent sagotage the U.S. bomb project? Why would world opinion condemn Stalin when they didn't condemn the U.S. for the atom bomb attack and the Japanese launched a biological weapon attack on the United States? Also, why would making peace with Japan mean war with the Soviet Union? If the U.S. made peace with Japan the Soviets would do the same.

[CaliBoy1990]

My main question is, why would the Soviets attack the U.S. in the first place?

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by Sean Mulligan

Why would the Japanese think that the U.S. was trying to eradicate Japanese civiliation when the U.S. was clearly asking for their surrender and the bombings would stop after the Japanese surrendered. Why would a Soviet Agent sagotage the U.S. bomb project? Why would world opinion condemn Stalin when they didn't condemn the U.S. for the atom bomb attack and the Japanese launched a biological weapon attack on the United States? Also, why would making peace with Japan mean war with the Soviet Union? If the U.S. made peace with Japan the Soviets would do the same.

Yeah, that's an awful lot of legitamate questions that I would love to have answered as well.

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by alternatehistorian

The US has no choice in helping Japan rebuild after the war, unless it wants it to fall into Soviet orbit. So destroying Japan isn't really a realistic strategy.

It is if Japan starts Biobombing Amertican cities, and while we're o nthe subject why would they do that when the AMericans have made it plain they would welcome a Japanese surrender?

The bombs were only used because of Tojo's foot dragging.

[Julian]

Originally Posted by alternatehistorian

The US has no choice in helping Japan rebuild after the war, unless it wants it to fall into Soviet orbit. So destroying Japan isn't really a realistic strategy.

The US didn't care. They literally would have bombed and starved Japan back several centuries until it surrendered. The Soviets weren't their concern in 1945.

[Julian]

Also, the Japanese did not have a viable bioweapon developed in 1945, or a way to deliver it if they did in any reliable way. Further if they did somehow use a bioweapon the British, and US would make the Home Islands uninhabitable using anthrax and chemical weapons.

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by Julian

The US didn't care. They literally would have bombed and starved Japan back several centuries until it surrendered. The Soviets weren't their concern in 1945.

Co-Rect-amundo!

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by Julian

Also, the Japanese did not have a viable bioweapon developed in 1945, or a way to deliver it if they did in any reliable way. Further if they did somehow use a bioweapon the British, and US would make the Home Islands uninhabitable using anthrax and chemical weapons.

Exactly Japan does NOT want to "Go there" in these terms as it only ends bad for them.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by alternatehistorian

The US has no choice in helping Japan rebuild after the war, unless it wants it to fall into Soviet orbit. So destroying Japan isn't really a realistic strategy.

It's the one they were pursuing, no surrender and Japan will be destroyed, by fire bombing, famine, and nukes. That is not speculation, it was an ongoing process IOTL and would have continued if Japan has not given in. You've offered up several PODs here and haven't plausibly explained any of them.

[Julian]

Originally Posted by alternatehistorian

Unfortunately, Stalin has beat the US to the punch and attacked Japan with gas he stole from the Nazi stockpiles. The attack cause great casualties and world's public opinion turns against Stalin and the allies when the Pope and the Archbishop of Canterbury both issue a join statement condemning Stalin's actions.

No. Just, no. The world did not care what methods were used to defeat Japan, at least in 1945. The Allies themselves had destroyed almost every urban center in the nation, inflicting millions of deaths through firebombing. If Stalin wants to use chemical weapons than the Allies will honestly not care.

[Asnys]

It would take far less than a year for more weapons to be produced, even if one of the production plants was taken out. The US stockpile at the end of 1945 was 6 weapons; at the end of 1946, 11 weapons. This is after production rates fell off drastically due to the end of the war; if kept on a wartime footing, figures would likely be much higher.

Even knocking out an entire production facility won't be enough. The US had two completely separate paths to a bomb: uranium enrichment and plutonium. Damaging a facility responsible for one approach would not effect the other approach. Furthermore, in most cases production was spread out amongst multiple facilities that were too dispersed to all be damaged by a radiation leak. For example, the Hanford site had three separate reactors, deliberately built far enough apart that even a complete meltdown of one plant would not force the shutdown of another plant. (Of course, part of that was due to much lower radiation safety standards of the time). The US will have the bombs, one way or another.

For that matter, replacing Oppenheimer with Teller is not going to appreciably speed production. By this point the remaining limits on production are physical, not a matter of management. Besides, Oppenheimer was in charge of R&D, not production.

[SergeantHeretic]

Originally Posted by alternatehistorian

Stalin initiates hostilities against the US after he perceives that the US has sided with Japan against him.

You know that makes no sense at all right, I'm just saying.

[Julian]

Originally Posted by alternatehistorian

Stalin initiates hostilities against the US after he perceives that the US has sided with Japan against him.

Stalin isn't a moron. He knows that his nation is crippled from WW2 and isn't about to start WW3 unless he's directly attacked.