Wi Bremer Shoots Nixon?

Not sure if this has been done before, but apparently Arthur Bremer (the guy who killed George Wallace in OTL), originally wanted to assassinate Richard Nixon, but abandoned that idea because he thought it would be impossible.

What if Bremer had decided to shoot Nixon however?

Instead of the assassination being successful however, let's assume Nixon ends up with simelar injuries to Wallace in OTL. Would Nixon be able to run again in this instance? If he does, how will this affect the campaign and does Watergate (or something simelar) happen?

Alternatively, might he find himself removed as a 25th amendment case?
Personally, I'm inclined to say no on that-noone wants President Agnew if they can help it.

If Nixon serves out his term but doesn't run for a second, who's the Republican nominee and who do the democrats nominate?
 
My offhand guesses (I was 20 in 1972, so I generally recall the events of OTL):
  • Nixon is not declared disabled since he retains full intellectual capacity--and there is the FDR precedent. But at the same time, learning to cope with a disability while president means that neither gets the attention it warrants. Thus, Nixon-with some "assistance", shall we say-determines that he will finish out his term but not run for re-election.
  • Agnew, while popular with the masses, is seen as unelectable as president by GOP elders. He's a useful attack dog, but not viable as a chief executive. As such, he gets told politely but definitively that under no circumstances will he be a candidate for president in 1972.
  • Nelson Rockefeller, while not without baggage of his own, is viewed as probably the best hope for the GOP in '72. He can probably deliver New York, has some cachet with moderates and even liberals, and has the executive experience necessary. A more conservative Republican-possibly Ralph Yarbrough, Gerald Ford, or even Ronald Reagan-would be Rockefeller's running mate. That last intrigues me, by the way: a GOP ticket based in NY and CA might just ensure those two states are in the GOP column, which would be a major leg up in the election.
  • I don't see that the attempt on Nixon's life would derail McGovern's nomination; if anything, the perceived chaos among Republicans would have some Democrats thinking McGovern might actually have a shot. I'd say that the election results wouldn't be grossly different, though.
  • Viet Nam would probably wind down somewhat more quickly than in OTL.
  • Clearly, with Rockefeller as the candidate, "Watergate" remains the name of a place and nothing more.
  • Should Rockefeller run for a second full term in 1976, we might well be faced with another in-term change: in OTL, Rockefeller died in late January 1979, a matter of days after the midpoint of that second term. That would put whomever in the Oval Office then, with the likelihood of becoming the '80 nominee barring some further disruption. If it's Reagan, I'd say he serves out what's left of Rockefeller's second term (just barely under two years / just barely less than half of the term), runs in his own right in '80 and-since he filled in for less than half of Rockefeller's second term-again in '84. Hence the Reagan Revolution would go on as in OTL.
 
As much as I loved the Reagan Revolution I don't think it's possible to have the Republicans rule the White House from 1968 to 1988. That's five elections which is just waaay to long. Much more likely imho is whoever the GOP puts up in 1972 annihilates McGovern (Amnesty, Acid and Abortion), winning again in 1976 without the baggage of Watergate but then probably loses in 1980 under the what of stagflation, and the GOP having been in office for 12 years. Also after having lost both '72 and '76 the Dem's will probably put up a moderate in 1980 who should be able to get over the line.
 
I largely agree with both LaSalle and Arachnid. What I doubt is Rocky's nomination for VP. If I'm remembering my Nixonology correctly, IOTL he was wary of picking either Rocky or Reagan for fear of splitting the party. Better choices might be Ford or maybe Ford's second choice IOTL: Bush 41.
 
If Nixon decides not to run again then Agnew would get the nomination. He would pick Rockefeller as his running mate. The Agnew Rockefeller ticket would surely defeat McGovern, but by a somewhat lower margin. Agnew would have to resign when his bribery tax evasion become public. Reagan defeats Rockefeller for the Republican nomination in 1976.
 
I agree on the question of the Reagan Revolution, if you remove Jimmy Carter and Watergate from the picture odds are the Reagan Revolution won't happen. If a moderate, country club Republican like Rockefeller gets the nod and holds the White House for most of the 70s the rise of the Religious Right as a major force in American politics will also at the very least be delayed until '84 at the earliest. If the RR ends up in an insurgency role inside the GOP that's going to pretty dramatically change a lot of things in culture and politics going into the 90s and the rest of the decade.

The butterflies are thick around this one :)
 
If Bremer shot at Nixon on April 14, 1972, the most likely outcome is he misses and gets arrested. Which means Wallace is healthy and runs as the American Independent Party nominee in the fall. I think he gets 6 or 7 % of the vote and carries Mississippi and Alabama. He may draw enough votes from Nixon for McGovern to carry Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Minnesota and South Dakota. So Nixon wins a smaller landslide and nothing much changes.
 
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