Wi Anthony Eden Dies In 1953?

[Peelitebkearns]

Hi all,

On the 12th April 1953, then British Foreign Sec (later PM) Anthony Eden had a Gallstone opperation that seriously compromised his future health.

What if he had died during the opperation?

How does this affect Churchill's final 2 years in office?

Does Churchill retire on schedule, or is his retirement butterflied in either direction because of Eden's absence?

Who takes over from Churchill when he does retire?

I assume the Tories still win the election in 1955?

How does Churchill's successor (or Churchill himself, if he's still PM) handle Suez in 1956?

[Charles James Fox]

Rab Butler was actually the temporary head of government when Anthony Eden was having his operation, as Winston Churchill was recovering from a stroke at the same time. Without Eden in the picture, Butler would be the obvious successor. He often lacked the ruthlessness to seize the position of PM for himself, so Churchill may stay on until 1955 like OTL. An alternative to Butler would be Lord Salisbury, or even Macmillan or Selwyn Lloyd if they progress through government quickly.

[The Oncoming Storm]

Butler would be the obvious next PM. As for Suez, it would certainly help of the PM doesn't think that Nasser is the reincarnation of Hitler and may be more open to a negotiated resolution. Actually taking Eden out of the picture may not make Nasser so hostile to the British, at the signing of the treaty that saw British troops withdrawn from Suez, Eden was extremely rude and patronising to Nasser, it's well documented that he had a visceral hatred for Arabs, something that his drug addiction exacerbated. So with a more personable Foreign Secretary and PM perhaps Nasser honours the original agreement?

[JN1]

The Tory grandees would want anyone other than RAB Butler. Seems they didn't trust him after the events of 1940.

[Peelitebkearns]

Originally Posted by JN1

The Tory grandees would want anyone other than RAB Butler. Seems they didn't trust him after the events of 1940.

He was passed over twice, 1957 and 1963, though my impression was that in 1963 in particular, he came close to becoming leader (with no Peerage act, the Magic Circle might have reluctantly appointed him). If Churchill favours Butler as his successor, I can see it happenning, though in OTL I think Churchill advised the Queen to appoint Mcmillan after Eden's resignation.

I wonder who Eden's replacement at the Foreign Office would be? Perhaps whoever it is would eventually become PM in 55?

[Charles James Fox]

Possibilities for Foreign Secretary:

Selwyn Lloyd (Minister of State at the Foreign Office)
Oliver Lyttelton (Secretary of State for the Colonies)
Lord Swinton (Secretary of State for Commonwealth Relations)
Harold Macmillan (Minister for Housing and Local Government)
Lord Salisbury (Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Lords)

[V-J]

Bobberty Salisbury would probably be the next Fsec. He was already running the department during Eden's illness IIRC, and was close to Eden so there would be a deference to continuity aspect.

I am not sure how this affects Churchill's retirement. I can see reasons for him going on longer, and reasons for him going at around the same time as OTL.

Personally-speaking, I think he'd go on longer, (Rab isn't up to it and all that, and Rab aint going to push it like Eden) and I don't see any reason for Suez being butterflied, so...

[Peelitebkearns]

Originally Posted by V-J

Bobberty Salisbury would probably be the next Fsec. He was already running the department during Eden's illness IIRC, and was close to Eden so there would be a deference to continuity aspect.

I am not sure how this affects Churchill's retirement. I can see reasons for him going on longer, and reasons for him going at around the same time as OTL.

Personally-speaking, I think he'd go on longer, (Rab isn't up to it and all that, and Rab aint going to push it like Eden) and I don't see any reason for Suez being butterflied, so...

Interesting-Salisbury has name recognition as well, so having him succeed Eden isn't a bad idea.

In regards to Churchill's retirement, I'm inclined to agree he remains for a little while longer (say until 1956), but some people argue that Eden was pretty much running the show during Churchill's 1951-55 premiership anyway because of Churchill's own health problems, so Eden's absence could mean Churchill has more pressure, leading to more health scares and early retirement...