What if Ögedei Khan lived for another 20 years?

Yelnoc · Mar 26, 2012

As a POD, let's say that Ögedei does not fall sick during a campaign in China. Thus his youngest son Tolui does not sacrifice himself, and Ögedei does not fall into an alcoholic spiral (the cause of his OTL death). So Ögedei lives and rules until 1261 to the ripe old age of 75.

How far do the Mongols push into Europe. I know that Subutai was planning for an invasion of the Holy Roman Empire before hearing of Ögedei's death. What of the other spheres? How far can the Mongol conquest machine extend?

MarshalBraginsky · Mar 26, 2012

Ogedei could easily stabilize the line of succession, although Jochi's descendants may not be that lucky. If Ogedei is ambitious enough, the Balkans could end up as part of the Mongol Empire.

Malta · Mar 26, 2012

Sibirskaya said:
Ogedei could easily stabilize the line of succession, although Jochi's descendants may not be that lucky. If Ogedei is ambitious enough, the Balkans could end up as part of the Mongol Empire.

Poland as well most likely, by the time of the Mongol retreat they had defeated the Poles in one epic battle and ravanged the countryside.

Easterling · Mar 26, 2012

Why would Ogodai waste men and resources for the conquest of some far away lands of questionable economic value, when there are much more valuable targets closer to home (like southern China)? The only chance Batu had of gathering support for his campaign in Europe was if he himself got elected Khan after Ogodai's death.
Besides, the Balkans aren't good cavalry country, so the mongols will have trouble conquering them and subduing the native population.

WhatIsAUserName · Mar 26, 2012

Tolui was Ogedei's brother, not son. And regarding the lines of succession, you can't just hand-wave them away, because Mongol successions generally weren't like that, and will probably end up with violence sooner or later.

And right now I'm not going to discuss real and alternate Mongol invasions of Europe, because that's been done enough times on this board.

eliphas8 · Mar 26, 2012

WhatIsAUserName said:
Tolui was Ogedei's brother, not son. And regarding the lines of succession, you can't just hand-wave them away, because Mongol successions generally weren't like that, and will probably end up with violence sooner or later.

And right now I'm not going to discuss real and alternate Mongol invasions of Europe, because that's been done enough times on this board.

Well Mongol succession wasnt always a disaster, it just hinged on the fact the old Khan and his son where good enough at their jobs to impress the local leaders into accepting them (admittedly a rarity but still).

Elfwine · Mar 26, 2012

eliphas8 said:
Well Mongol succession wasnt always a disaster, it just hinged on the fact the old Khan and his son where good enough at their jobs to impress the local leaders into accepting them (admittedly a rarity but still).

The problem is impressing the brothers and nephews and cousins (of the khan or his successor) into it.

MarshalBraginsky · Mar 26, 2012

Elfwine said:
The problem is impressing the brothers and nephews and cousins (of the khan or his successor) into it.

This was true when Genghis Khan was thinking of appointing Ogedei as successor because both Jochi and Chagatai were arguing over a strategy to capture the city of Urgenc.

MerryPrankster · Mar 26, 2012

Sibirskaya said:
This was true when Genghis Khan was thinking of appointing Ogedei as successor because both Jochi and Chagatai were arguing over a strategy to capture the city of Urgenc.

Jochi's dubious paternity probably didn't help.

MarshalBraginsky · Mar 26, 2012

MerryPrankster said:
Jochi's dubious paternity probably didn't help.

Being the son of the rival Merkit chief who kidnapped Borte certainly dampens Genghis Khan's choices of a successor. The Golden Horde's rulers might as well call themselves Jochids instead of Genghisids.

MerryPrankster · Mar 26, 2012

Sibirskaya said:
Being the son of the rival Merkit chief who kidnapped Borte certainly dampens Genghis Khan's choices of a successor. The Golden Horde's rulers might as well call themselves Jochids instead of Genghisids.

I don't think it's been proven one way or the other. Genghis always claimed Jochi as his, but IIRC he was specifically excluded from the succession.

(That doesn't necessary mean Genghis didn't think he was his son, but he would want a stable succession to preserve the empire and Jochi wouldn't have meant that.)

YLi · Mar 26, 2012

Jochi wasn't really excluded from succession, but he died prematurely, which may have made things difficult for his descendants. Genghis split his lands amongst his 3 older sons as per Mongol tradition and gave most of his men to Tolui, his youngest son.

MarshalBraginsky · Mar 26, 2012

So the key is to have Jochi survive long enough for Genghis to make his own succession a lot easier.

Elfwine · Mar 26, 2012

Sibirskaya said:
This was true when Genghis Khan was thinking of appointing Ogedei as successor because both Jochi and Chagatai were arguing over a strategy to capture the city of Urgenc.

And then there's Batu and Guyuk, which nearly came to the point of civil war, and Kubolai's succession did involve one to establish rule.

The whole Mongol (and other groups) system is not conducive to a stable succession from father to son. It practically begs for factions to form to get their candidate elected (Yes, elected).

MarshalBraginsky · Aug 20, 2012

Also, if Jochi's dubious paternity was revealed by Chagatai (indirectly), could he also be driven to say, rebel against his father's authority? IOTL he and Chagatai never got along really well.

Malta · Aug 20, 2012

Easterling said:
Why would Ogodai waste men and resources for the conquest of some far away lands of questionable economic value, when there are much more valuable targets closer to home (like southern China)? The only chance Batu had of gathering support for his campaign in Europe was if he himself got elected Khan after Ogodai's death.
Besides, the Balkans aren't good cavalry country, so the mongols will have trouble conquering them and subduing the native population.

The Mongolian forces in Europe had recieved reinforcements prior to news of Ogodai's death. Also, they would have just used fodder troops from the area like they did across the breadth of Eurasia. If the Mongols found out they didn't have something they usually went out and got it and then burned down entire cities.

Elfwine · Aug 20, 2012

King of Malta said:
The Mongolian forces in Europe had recieved reinforcements prior to news of Ogodai's death. Also, they would have just used fodder troops from the area like they did across the breadth of Eurasia. If the Mongols found out they didn't have something they usually went out and got it and then burned down entire cities.

And fodder troops will perform as you expect, which is a lot easier for European forces to tackle than the Mongols proper.

MarshalBraginsky · Aug 20, 2012

Not a good strategy to use auxilliary cannon fodder against Europeans, since that would guarantee a huge defeat.

Malta · Aug 20, 2012

Elfwine said:
And fodder troops will perform as you expect, which is a lot easier for European forces to tackle than the Mongols proper.

It worked for them rather well in China. And Persia. And Poland. And Hungary.

Elfwine · Aug 20, 2012

King of Malta said:
It worked for them rather well in China. And Persia. And Poland. And Hungary.

China took decades to conquer, Persia wasn't overrun mostly by locals, and Poland and Hungary weren't conquered - or again, facing mostly nonsteppe troops.

I'm not saying the Mongols couldn't win, but I'd bet on a German army doings better against a "Mongol" army made up mostly of conscripted/enslaved Slavs than it could possibly hope for against a "pure" Mongol army, and not because Slavs suck but because they don't have any great advantages.