WI The Columbian Expedition was a complete failure?

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Yelnoc

Here is what

Does anyone else have more reliable data on how various diseases affected the natives?

Just from memory, no sources.

1) Most disease such as measles need a population of about 250,000 or they burn themselves out. If measles is introduced to the eastern seaboard of the USA in early 1500's, it will likely burn itself out an remain a local/regional outbreak. The large empires of Aztecs and Incas will be spared for now.

2) The death rate will be high for any new disease like measles. 35% to 65% of population is a good working range.

3) What hurt the Indians so much was not one disease, which they would have likely recovered from, but waves after waves of diseases every 5-25 years. Think of the black death, big changes in Europe, and a similar disease profile to what measles caused. Then imagine another small pox epidemic kill 1/2 the population 15 years later, followed by a typhus 7 years after that. Keep a pattern up like this for over 200 years, and everything collapse.

People are talking about which empire will take what, but the more important factor will be which disease land where, and when. An Inca Empire found in 1575 that collapsed 30 years before with the silver and gold spread among 1000's of small villages may not even attract much European attention.

Also yellow fever came from the old world to new world, but took around 150 years to get established. If Yellow fever can be butterflied into the new world before serious colonization begins, then perhaps it never gets started. Would one more tropical disease be enough to stop the sugar/slave industry?

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Yelnoc

Why not? The Caribbean was thriving with trade at this point in history, facilitated by Mayan merchants in dugouts as long as galleys. The map you linked indicates that the Mayans traded turtles and bird feathers with the Caribbean peoples, and from there it certainly would have been carried into Mesoamerica by traders, and likely would have reached the Incas a year or two after sweeping through the Yucatan on the clothes of traders. I might make a "spread of measles" map at some point, if I ever have some free time.

Even with all the disease in the Caribbean, it took a black crossbowman to bring small pox to the Aztecs. To hazard a guess, Indians grew sick too quickly with small pox, measles, and other disease to travel long distances while contagious. It takes a carrier with at least some resistance or pigs to move the disease long distances.

Just think about yourself being in the situation they were in. You are a Mayan trader who has seen several Cuban villages decimated by some disease. People are dying in your boat. It is possible that you will not return home to help stop the spread. While you may not know how disease work, you might believe them either to be contagious or you might decide the gods have curse you and you want to spare you kids from gods punishment.

[Elfwine]

Yet, see the spread of the Black Plague in Europe - meaning, from the Genoese or whoever onward.

Why will a Mayan trader be different?

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Yet, see the spread of the Black Plague in Europe - meaning, from the Genoese or whoever onward.

Why will a Mayan trader be different?

Well the Europeans were pretty used to plagues by the Black Death. The Mayans might be more spooked. Of course they might react worse instead.

[Hnau]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

1) Most disease such as measles need a population of about 250,000 or they burn themselves out. If measles is introduced to the eastern seaboard of the USA in early 1500's, it will likely burn itself out an remain a local/regional outbreak. The large empires of Aztecs and Incas will be spared for now.

I more or less agree with this. It seems to me that a measles outbreak on the eastern seaboard would remain limited, regional, spreading no farther than the Mississippi River. I think it would be interesting to introduce Old World diseases as soon as possible to the Aztecs and Incas, but maybe this initial case of measles isn't the best candidate for doing so.

Aww, you guys have convinced me to write another installment. I'm thinking of writing up the details of the next few important expeditions to the New World and the beginnings of colonization there. Any requests?

[Elfwine]

Shipwrecks. Ghastly, horrible shipwrecks.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

Yet, see the spread of the Black Plague in Europe - meaning, from the Genoese or whoever onward.

Why will a Mayan trader be different?

Fewer of them, smaller ships.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Hnau

I more or less agree with this. It seems to me that a measles outbreak on the eastern seaboard would remain limited, regional, spreading no farther than the Mississippi River. I think it would be interesting to introduce Old World diseases as soon as possible to the Aztecs and Incas, but maybe this initial case of measles isn't the best candidate for doing so.

Aww, you guys have convinced me to write another installment. I'm thinking of writing up the details of the next few important expeditions to the New World and the beginnings of colonization there. Any requests?

If you want an interesting story have the disease epidemics about the same time frame with minor randomness, but delay the main settlement colonies by 50 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

Say small pox 1518, measles 1527, typhus 1540, flu 1548. If the major settlements start around 1600 (sugar plantations), you could have a small change (no gold rush) lead to a much different war. With a couple of generations to recover, maybe the successor empires could have formed. It may be a bit of a stretch, but if the Mayan, Aztec, and Incas are in anarchy before the European gold explorers arrive, maybe they find much gold, and it will be a century two or late before the great Mexican and Bolivian silver mines are found.

[Elfwine]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

Fewer of them, smaller ships.

What does that have to do with their feelings on how to respond to sudden plague?

[Yelnoc]

To achieve the slowed colonization, you could have the Italian wars turn into even more of a mess. How, I don't know. I'm in the middle of The Prince which provides an interesting window into the period, but I'm still lacking in substance when it comes to that time period. Requests? Nope. I would really like to work on the eastern North American tribes sometime, if that's alright. Let's keep the measles. Note that because of the sparse records, a lot of my entry will be based on most likely largely distorted oral records I've heard from friends and family (I'm part Cherokee, and though I didn't learn much from my westernized family, I have learned stuff from knowledgeable friends).

[Hnau]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

Say small pox 1518, measles 1527, typhus 1540, flu 1548. If the major settlements start around 1600 (sugar plantations), you could have a small change (no gold rush) lead to a much different war. With a couple of generations to recover, maybe the successor empires could have formed. It may be a bit of a stretch, but if the Mayan, Aztec, and Incas are in anarchy before the European gold explorers arrive, maybe they find much gold, and it will be a century two or late before the great Mexican and Bolivian silver mines are found.

Oh, I definitely want to introduce diseases to the Americas as soon as possible so that the native cultures can have more time to recuperate, but when the diseases arrive and where has a lot to do with where Europeans are exploring, don't you think?

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

To achieve the slowed colonization, you could have the Italian wars turn into even more of a mess. How, I don't know. I'm in the middle of The Prince which provides an interesting window into the period, but I'm still lacking in substance when it comes to that time period. Requests? Nope. I would really like to work on the eastern North American tribes sometime, if that's alright. Let's keep the measles. Note that because of the sparse records, a lot of my entry will be based on most likely largely distorted oral records I've heard from friends and family (I'm part Cherokee, and though I didn't learn much from my westernized family, I have learned stuff from knowledgeable friends).

There are two interesting PODs so far that we can use to exacerbate the Italian Wars: an economically weaker, more disorganized France that is more overstretched than IOTL and also the Papal States are weaker and Venice is stronger. Let's see how we can twist all that to make the Italian Wars last longer and bloodier.

As far as the eastern North American tribes, be my guest, take the initiative into figuring out what happens to them. If the Spanish are more active in this area, that means more trading with the natives up and down the coast, more slaving, more shipwrecks, more disease. I don't see Spanish Virginia expanding too quickly, without tobacco from Trinidad they won't have a good cash crop. I expect a population under a thousand for at least its first fifty years, it'll be mainly just a fort. On the other hand, I think Spanish Florida would be much more successful, though not as much as Cuba or Hispaniola would be. I also foresee a number of Spanish forts and missions being built in the area between Florida and Virginia.

[Yelnoc]

Originally Posted by Hnau

There are two interesting PODs so far that we can use to exacerbate the Italian Wars: an economically weaker, more disorganized France that is more overstretched than IOTL and also the Papal States are weaker and Venice is stronger. Let's see how we can twist all that to make the Italian Wars last longer and bloodier.

As far as the eastern North American tribes, be my guest, take the initiative into figuring out what happens to them. If the Spanish are more active in this area, that means more trading with the natives up and down the coast, more slaving, more shipwrecks, more disease. I don't see Spanish Virginia expanding too quickly, without tobacco from Trinidad they won't have a good cash crop. I expect a population under a thousand for at least its first fifty years, it'll be mainly just a fort. On the other hand, I think Spanish Florida would be much more successful, though not as much as Cuba or Hispaniola would be. I also foresee a number of Spanish forts and missions being built in the area between Florida and Virginia.

I've got a word document I'm brainstorming in, but it might be a while until I have a post. One thing I just thought of; does Amerigo Vespucci still play a role in this timeline, and if so, what? There is still a chance that the Americas can keep their name in this timeline.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Elfwine

What does that have to do with their feelings on how to respond to sudden plague?

It can change the speed of the spreading disease.

Originally Posted by Hnau

Oh, I definitely want to introduce diseases to the Americas as soon as possible so that the native cultures can have more time to recuperate, but when the diseases arrive and where has a lot to do with where Europeans are exploring, don't you think?

Yes, you probably need a large ship traveling from a new world base to get the disease to Mexico.

[Hnau]

Originally Posted by Amerigo Vespucci

I've got a word document I'm brainstorming in, but it might be a while until I have a post. One thing I just thought of; does Amerigo Vespucci still play a role in this timeline, and if so, what? There is still a chance that the Americas can keep their name in this timeline.

Well, all of what I've written is subject to change and retcon, you know, we're just brainstorming here. I like to keep a loose structure like that. But, what I've come up with so far is that Vespucci was too old to get involved directly by the time the Spanish start getting interested in the Americas. At the most he merely finances or supplies the Bastidas expeditions.

I've been thinking that South America could be called Cabralia (it was for quite a while in OTL by the Portuguese) and that the Americas as a whole could be called Occidentia, or Westland. As far as North America, the Spanish have yet to give it a name that could stick.

[Yelnoc]

Originally Posted by Hnau

Well, all of what I've written is subject to change and retcon, you know, we're just brainstorming here. I like to keep a loose structure like that. But, what I've come up with so far is that Vespucci was too old to get involved directly by the time the Spanish start getting interested in the Americas. At the most he merely finances or supplies the Bastidas expeditions.

I've been thinking that South America could be called Cabralia (it was for quite a while in OTL by the Portuguese) and that the Americas as a whole could be called Occidentia, or Westland. As far as North America, the Spanish have yet to give it a name that could stick.

I like the name Cabralia. I also like the idea of the two continents having their own names. However, if they don't have the same name, I imagine that the Americas as a whole would simply be called the New World or the Occident (with variations by language) rather than a set name. Just my two cents.

EDIT: One thing we might want to cover is the evolution of seafaring ships. Around this time in OTL, the Portuguese developed the fighting caravel (caravela redonda) to escort cargo caravels to and from Brazil.

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by Yelnoc

I like the name Cabralia. I also like the idea of the two continents having their own names. However, if they don't have the same name, I imagine that the Americas as a whole would simply be called the New World or the Occident (with variations by language) rather than a set name. Just my two cents.

I think a term akin to "Eurasia" might develop. It would be nice to have a continent name that doesn't start with a vowel though.

[kasumigenx]

South America could be called as Brazil actually..

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Hnau

I've been thinking that South America could be called Cabralia (it was for quite a while in OTL by the Portuguese) and that the Americas as a whole could be called Occidentia, or Westland. As far as North America, the Spanish have yet to give it a name that could stick.

I like Occidentia. It starts and ends with a vowel, and it fits well into the Europe as the center of the world. We have Europe, Occidentia, and the Orient.

[Yelnoc]

In the Spring of 1507, the first Spanish expedition passed close by the shores of the Carolinas[1]. Bad weather and unfamiliar waters sank two of the five caravels. Some sailors drowned, others were rescued by the other ships, but a handful made it to shore where they encounter natives. The sailors, numbering perhaps a dozen, were welcomed by the coastal peoples and taken to the town of Usi Sanapa, where they were fed corn and venison. Among the rescued was thirty-two year old Vasco Núñez de Balboa, captain of a smaller caravel and natural leader of the Spaniards.

The Spanish sailors were a novelty amongst the native people, who continued to treat them with kindness and hospitality. However, within a week of their arrival the native people of Usi Sanapa began to fall ill with measles. None of Balboa’s men had the disease, though at least one of them must have been a carrier. There was nothing to be done, particularly not for a people with absolutely no resistance like the natives. In desperation, the Orata[2] ordered Balboa and his men to leave. Just then, armed men from the city Cofitachequi arrived to collect tribute from Usi Sanapa. The Orata handed Balboa and his men over, who were brought back to Cofitachequi as prisoners.

Balboa recalls being surprised by the size of Cofitachequi, which he estimated housed around 10,000 people[3] . He also remarked on the orderliness and cleanliness of the society and the richness of the land. Cofitachequi was located on the bank of a river and bound on the other side by heavily forested hills, though a large space of surrounding land was cleared for agriculture; shoots of corn stalks were just appearing in the spring soil. At the time, he thought this land must be claimed by Spain; in time he would do his best to prevent that.

His immediate concern, however, was convincing the natives he and his men were not demon spirits. They had not been on the new land for two weeks, and communicated with their captors almost entirely with sign language, though he knew a few words in the local Muskogean dialect. Balboa was surprised to be brought before a young woman with pearls around her neck; the Queen of Cofitachequi. The testimony of the tribute collectors was enough to convince her to place the Spaniards under arrest. They were bound and placed in a dilapidated hut where they remained for several weeks.

Soon after their imprisonment, traders from the coast arrived, bringing news that the disease had wiped out a fifth of their people[4]. They also brought the disease itself, and before long the people of Cofitachequi lay in their huts covered in bumps, doing their best to care for each other. The Queen sent for Balboa in hopes he might have a cure to the illness. He tried to convey to them the concept of bloodletting, but the Queen had no intention of giving him one of the copper swords[5]. Desperate to prove useful to the people (and thus be released from captivity), Balboa picked up a sharp rock from the ground and cut his bicep with it. Somehow, Balboa’s meaning was impressed upon the Queen, who ordered a handful of patients sliced open on their arms. Through some miracle, that group survived the measles, causing the Queen order all sick patients bloodletted.

Balboa and his men were freed and he was presented with a sword by the Queen. One of his men commented that the blade appeared to contain gold mixed with the copper, but they had no means of testing the theory. Balboa tried to ask her about gold, but as precious metals were not precious to the people of Cofitachequi, the idea could not be communicated. The Spaniards stayed in Cofitachequi, tending to the sick, learning to plant corn and sweet potato (in place of the sick townsfolk), and eventually learning Muskogean.

In the fall of 1507, the Spaniards prepared side by side with the people of Cofitachequi for the harvest. Before they could begin, couriers from Guiomae, a tribute town to the south, brought word that a raiding party from the city of Orista had sacked the town, stealing their stores of food and their pearls, which were a sort of currency among the societies of the area. The Queen sent a call throughout her kingdom for men to come and form a raiding party for retaliation. When not as many people showed up, presumably due to the effects of the measles, the Queen armed Balboa and his men and allowed them to come on the raid, arming them with axes and knives. The party travelled south to Orista, which they sacked, burning the villages and taking off as much loot as they could carry.

With this action, the Spaniards were accepted into Cofitachequi society. They took wives from the townspeople, learned to hunt with bows, and faded in. When Europeans arrived for a second time, Balboa and his men did not feel rescued; they felt trapped.

Map of native settlements in the Carolinas, created from the OTL second expedition of Juan Pardo. In orange is the extent of the tributary Kingdom of Cofitachequi.

[1] The Carolinas need to be renamed
[2] Orata comes from the Muskogean term úrata which refers to the leader of an intermediate town leader or chieftain.
[3] Balboa’s estimate is very rough; the actual number is likely closer to 5,000, though I have no sources one way or the other.
[4] Measles killed perhaps 33% of the native peoples it affected. That report is still in the early weeks of the disease.
[5] I have found references to “celtic blades” by the few authors that cover this subject. Whether the Cofitachequi had smelting technology or the blades were imported is unknown to me. They are most likely long knives rather than any sort of sword (as we know the word).

[Beedok]

Quite the kingdom!