Abe Lincoln killed in a duel: 1842

While temporarily out of political office in 1842, Abraham Lincoln wrote an inflammatory letter to a Springfield, Illinois, newspaper, in which he poked fun at the Illinois State Auditor...a hot-tempered Irishman named James Shields. Shields, who in OTL would go on to become a Union general in the Civil War and a great personal friend of Lincoln, took offense at the article, and demanded "satisfaction." The incident escalated to the point where the two men met in Missouri to participate in a duel. Just prior to engaging in combat, however, the two participants' seconds intervened and were able to convince the two men to cease hostilities.

But what if the intervention of the two men's seconds had failed, and the duel went on as planned? Lincoln and Shields, pistol in hand, each walk ten paces, turn and fire. Lincoln's shot whizzes by Shields' ear, but Shields' shot find's it's mark, right between Lincoln's eyes. Lincoln's gaunt, six-foot frame collapses to the ground, lifeless. Shields is later charged with murder, but acquitted.

So how does history proceed from here? Who replaces Lincoln on the Republican ticket in 1860? Without the famous Lincoln-Douglas Debates, during which Stephen Douglas made statements which infuriated the Southern wing of the Democratic Party, will there still be a Democratic split in 1860? If Douglas is nominated as the sole candidate of the Democrats, will he defeat the Republican challenger? Will there be a Civil War in 1861, or if not then, later? Any other possible effects?

civil war not prevented

Although I have to be honest I don't know much about the political situation in the USA around that time, but I think that the civil war would probably not have been avoided.

It was more a change in the society and differences of interests of ruling parties than that it was bound or caused by 1 person.

How ever I think there might have been a good chance that the outcome might have been different, a different union president (a less determent and idealistic man) might at some point may have made peace with the confederates, thus we will end up with the USA being divided for a period of time.

This in term might influence events other where on the globe.

Seward would've gotten the presidency, he was actually surprised he didn't anyway, in fact. and regardless of his pre war record, his plans for keeping the nation together made him seem bi-polar. The Union would've proabably found themselves embroiled with a war with spain, and the CSA(Seward had designs on Cuba) , or Seward would've settled with the cotton secession outright. ( he also wanted to secede all federal forts in the seceded states without a battle, which at the time would've been a treasonable offense.) Of course the generally accepted school of thought was he was trying to make lincoln look bad by giving him ill advice.

I had no knowledge of lincolns duel, yet another important POD when concerning the ACW.

What I heard was that Lincoln did not want a duel. He chose swords because given his hieght and reach anyone would be crazy to fight him with that weapon. That was why there was no duel

I accept that there must have been lots of times given 19th century health care and lack of same that Lincoln could have died before 1860.

pisces74 said:

Seward would've gotten the presidency, he was actually surprised he didn't anyway, in fact.

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I agree it is likely that Seward might have gotten the Republican nomination. But the Republicans were by no means certain to win the election, especially in the absence of a Democratic split. Seward was kind of an abrasive character, from what I have read, and probably would not have done as well in the election as Lincoln. I think we probably end up with President Stephen Douglas.

Derek Jackson said:

What I heard was that Lincoln did not want a duel. He chose swords because given his hieght and reach anyone would be crazy to fight him with that weapon. That was why there was no duel.

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That may indeed be why the seconds were able to persuade Shields to agree to end the duel...I had not read the actual details of the duel itself, only that the seconds were able to prevent it from going forward. But we need only modify the scenario...Lincoln takes a clumsy swipe at Shields, who deftly ducks under Lincoln's sword and then drives the point of his saber into Lincoln's belly. Lincoln dies in agony ten days later.

Lincoln is just as dead, and the same POD results.

Lincoln dies 1842

The Civil War would still happen though maybe not until later. LIke Lincoln actually did a dark horse candidate possibly Edwin Stanton wins the White house and succession still happens result War even before Sumter. Union not ready and neither is the South but Stanton antagonizes everyone even worse than Lincoln did. Border states join the Rebel cause. CSA wins freedom.
Alternately Stanton looses, Douglas wins South stays until next congressional impasse. Douglass dies in office after naming Andrew Johnson VP. Johnson prosecutes war in much the same manner as Lincoln however names W.T. Sherman sec of war Big shake up in the miltarty and Grant comes to fore two years earlier war ends at Antietam with a Union victory. Sherman and grant strong enough to influence Johnson to not be overly harsh to returning states and reconstruction is not a harmful thing to the South. Slavery not outlawed but dies on the vine with the cessation of hostilities.Just some random meandering thoughts. Neil

neil macmillan said:

The Civil War would still happen though maybe not until later. LIke Lincoln actually did a dark horse candidate possibly Edwin Stanton wins the White house and succession still happens result War even before Sumter. Union not ready and neither is the South but Stanton antagonizes everyone even worse than Lincoln did. Border states join the Rebel cause. CSA wins freedom.
Alternately Stanton looses, Douglas wins South stays until next congressional impasse. Douglass dies in office after naming Andrew Johnson VP. Johnson prosecutes war in much the same manner as Lincoln however names W.T. Sherman sec of war Big shake up in the miltarty and Grant comes to fore two years earlier war ends at Antietam with a Union victory. Sherman and grant strong enough to influence Johnson to not be overly harsh to returning states and reconstruction is not a harmful thing to the South. Slavery not outlawed but dies on the vine with the cessation of hostilities.Just some random meandering thoughts. Neil

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In our timeline, Johnson would have found Lincoln's reconstruction harsh. Grant and Sherman would want him to push a harder line on the South, not a softer one.