Independent (but not Wilsonian) Armenia

Well , after realizing through research that the survival of some kind of Wilsonian Armenia is highly unlikely (the territories allotted in Sèvres were already depopulated of Armenians and DRA had no military, nor interest at that point, in retaking them), I want to reconsider the matter but with a different approach: could it be possible the survival of the Democratic Republic of Armenia in their 1918 borders (current Armenia plus Nachichevan ,Kars province , and probably Karabakh, with the posiibility of adding some territories at the expense of Georgia )? What conditions should be met for allowing this tiny state to become a successful nation, able to resist a Soviet invasion by 1920?. Is it possible for Armenians to arrange some sort of rapprochement with Atatürk?.



For the establishment and survival of TTL Armenia, which has to be anti-Soviet and pro-Western (any other possibility would result in Armenia swallowed by the Soviets), the Armeno-Turkish relations must change dramatically. Atatürk should promote the idea of an independent Armenian buffer-state between Turkey and Soviet Union. For that idea to become plausible, it is necessary to deteriorate Turco-Russian friendship to the point that Kemal perceive the Soviets as a potential threat, or the other possibility is that the Armenian state becomes a temporary ally, or even a stabilizing factor, against other threats (Kurds, etc….)

Any taker?

DRA with her OTL borders has a chance. I doubt the Turks would go after the Caucasian nations if not the Russians went after them. So what we need is a Russian CW PoD that distract the Red Army from invading the Caucasus. That would mean the Georgians and Azeris would remain independent too. One of DRA's problems was of course that they were hostile towards both the Georgians and the Azeris.

yourworstnightmare said:

DRA with her OTL borders has a chance. I doubt the Turks would go after the Caucasian nations if not the Russians went after them. So what we need is a Russian CW PoD that distract the Red Army from invading the Caucasus. That would mean the Georgians and Azeris would remain independent too. One of DRA's problems was of course that they were hostile towards both the Georgians and the Azeris.

Click to expand...

But didn't the Turkish-Armenian war actually precede the Soviet occupation?. The soviets entered in Armenia (and Azerbaijan) after Armenian collapse against Turkey, and they were nearly welcomed as protectors of the remnants of the DRA.

You're right, Turkey struck first, I remembered wrong. I guess one way to get the Turks to not attack Armenia and Georgia would be to butterfly away Wilsonian Armenia all together. DRA actually never agreed to the Wilsonian borders, since they knew they lacked capacity to control the territory. So perhaps some Armenian diplomats could persuade the Entente powers to never suggest those borders in the first place.

We also must remember Azerbaijan was occupied by the Red Army already in April 1920. This caused Turkey to fear the USSR would gobble up all the Caucasus and leave them with nothing, thus they attacked Armenia and later Georgia (both with USSR support) to make sure they got parts of the spoil.