Spain, Sweden, and Turkey join the Axis

Let's say that Spain, Sweden, and Turkey decide to join the Axis Powers, sometime between the invasion of France and the invasion of Greece.

Will they serve as significant boosts for the Axis?
Assuming that the Allies are still going to win, will they be able to launch successful invasions of those three countries?

Whilst an interesting concept for the three countries its suicide. Spain and Turkey's militarys were 3rd rate, at best and Swedens military whilst modern for the time is absolutely tiny.

Spain is madly dependent on Imports to feed its people and keep the country running and would be blockaded in short order.

Hmm, if Spain joins, the Brits could be in some real danger in the Med. If Spain is in then Gibraltar is threatened. On the other hand, Spain is situated prett precariously. The Spanish colonies will be gone pretty soon, and if/when the Americans show up, Spain is probably going to take the place of Italy as the "soft underbelly".

edit: and yes, Spain would suffer enormoudly from the lack of imports, especially considering as the situation the country was in without joining the Axis was not exactly rosy, following years of civil war.

Sweden joining the Axis, especially in that timeframe, seems unlikely to say the least. Sweden is in no shape militarily to join in any offensive war, has been at peace since the Napoleonic wars, has a policy of neutrality, has a democratically elected social-democratic prime minister, and is somewhat insured from a German attack by the ability to destroy the iron mines in the north that are supplying Germany's war effort. If you want Sweden in the Axis, you'd be better off going with Sweden joining Finland in the Winter War.

If Sweden were to join the axis, expect no changes other than maybe a few token soldiers on the eastern front, most likely helping the Finns in the continuation war. Sweden most likely won't get invaded by the allies, seeing as how the Red Army stopped in Finland and didn't occupy it, and Norway wasn't liberated by force.

I don't know enough about Turkey at the time to say, but I don't think they ever showed any inclination to join the Axis, being closer to the USSR. If they joined, and later wound up fighting the USSR instead of refusing to fight the USSR, the Germans could station troops in eastern Turkey prior to an attack toward the Baku oilfields. But how many troops would be needed, and what other part of the front would the Germans take them from? Would this slow other parts of the advance?

Spain entering the war could actually help the French, as they are retreating from Paris to set up a base in the Pyranness and continue on the war from there.

If you want the "party" line:

No change, USA still occupies whole europe! Oorah and all that.

Occupying both the Suez and the Gibraltar and getting Sweden into the war fully is ofcourse going to have no effect, axis will probably lose in 1942 due to "Nazi's are so incompetent"

Personal opinion:

German strategic victory in ww2.

Lets see: Sweden joining pushes Finland into the "Let's e go" mode and they join fully in Leningrad and Murmansk. Sweden deploys perhaps 75% of its active army to the various Axis fronts, keeping the rest in reserve. Sufficient to cause Murmansk, Murmansk-Rail road and Leningrad to fall in 1941.

Turkey joining the Axis pushes the pro-axis rebels in the mid-east into overdrive, potentially causing the pro-axis Iran/Persia to also join, though very unlikely. More important than anything else is the logistics to the mid-east that now open up. Combined with the flood of Turkey-Axis units down from Turkey the middle-east falls to the axis before end of 1941. Potentially much much sooner.

Spain joining the Axis pushes Portugal very likely into the war as well. The two provide exquisite U-Boat bases and cut off the Med to Allied shipping and seize Gib.

War ends either in 1941 or 1942. With the european war coming to an end after Axis manage to push UK out of mid-east and position themselves for either an invasion through Iran/Persia into India with Japanese backing, or seek to re-liberate Ethiopia and move south through the Nile.

The added manpower, industry and resources would shift the war so greatly into the Axis favor that by the time the US enters the war it will be unable to produce goods quickly enough to prevent both the British and the SU bailing from the war entirely, and try as you might the US and the disorganized commonwealth forces at this point would be unable to stand their ground in any protracted ground conflict with the axis well into 1944-1945, by which point at the absolute latest, the soviet will collapse thanks to the roughly 1-2 million more men deployed by Germany and the loss of the Iran convoy route due to Turkey and Spain helping Italy eliminate the allied control over the middle east.

In short, if you add Turkey and Spain, Axis wins, if you add just Turkey or just Spain it will probably slightly raise Axis chance of victory, but not much.

Sweden is a nice bonus but counts for very little alone. But if you add Swe-Turk-Spain you will have a very strong additional axis power.

Assuming the allies win, it will be over a glowing Europe sometime in the 1950's.

Given that for any of these countries joining the axis requires a level of insanity in their leaders of the sort that leads them to invade the Frisian Islands, just WHY would they???

Countries dont join wars just for yuks, there has to be something in it for them, or their leader.

Since OP didnt ask for "think of a reason why" just "what happens IF" I dont focus on the why.

All 3 joining?

Spain given enough concessions in Africa + say, Franco dies during the war and some redicilously pro-Axis guy gets to power during the civil war.

Turkey given all arab majority areas in the middle east outside of Africa from Turkey to Yemen.

Sweden i got nothing for. Nothing short of a POD in the political climate that goes back quite a long ways would convince them to join. That or SU being stupid enough to actually escalate the winter war with more "accidental" bombings.

Astrodragon said:

Given that for any of these countries joining the axis requires a level of insanity in their leaders of the sort that leads them to invade the Frisian Islands, just WHY would they???

Countries dont join wars just for yuks, there has to be something in it for them, or their leader.

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This.

Now assuming an ASB does this: The Axis get a significant boost for a Mediterranean strategy. The addon of these countries could be sufficient to throw the Brits out of the Med. IMHO that could be sufficient to throw Britain out of the war - but only if by then the Axis didn't declare war on the US or the Soviets, which is highly unlikely.

Against hte Soviets, I don't see a significant contribution by either of these. In fact if Britain or the US are still in the war Spain and Turkey will need German help for defense, reducing the available ressources on other fronts.

The only remote possibility I could see out of the three is Sweden getting dragged into things as a semi-axis member through getting more involved in helping Finland.

Hmm...Spain prob did not have the military power to do so, but if they had a bit more formidable military, then they could have probably got France from the south west, and even could have potentially got Portugal.

Sweden I dont think would have have much impact because of the geographical location of it, and they would have to sail to even get anywhere beside Finland. They could have potential to take over Denmark, however, since their military was tiny and militia based, this is unlikely.

Turkey could have brought the war to the middle eat easily if they joined the war. They could have gotten more territory for the Axis, and perhaps they could have invaded the part of Asia that Japan didn't get.

Hkelukka said:

If you want the "party" line:

No change, USA still occupies whole europe! Oorah and all that.

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There is a reason it is a party line.

Personal opinion:

German strategic victory in ww2.

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Let's see how this plays out....

Lets see: Sweden joining pushes Finland into the "Let's e go" mode and they join fully in Leningrad and Murmansk. Sweden deploys perhaps 75% of its active army to the various Axis fronts, keeping the rest in reserve. Sufficient to cause Murmansk, Murmansk-Rail road and Leningrad to fall in 1941.

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Maybe? Maybe not, how many troops can Sweden really send, supply and arm? Let's talk hard numbers here. How effective are Swedish troops going to be?

Turkey joining the Axis pushes the pro-axis rebels in the mid-east into overdrive, potentially causing the pro-axis Iran/Persia to also join, though very unlikely. More important than anything else is the logistics to the mid-east that now open up. Combined with the flood of Turkey-Axis units down from Turkey the middle-east falls to the axis before end of 1941. Potentially much much sooner.

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All this does is piss of the Vichy French in Syria and such. Turkey does not have the ability to just 'flood the middle east'. Not against British military power in Mesopotamia, and the fact that most Turks will stay home for when the USSR moves against them.

Spain joining the Axis pushes Portugal very likely into the war as well. The two provide exquisite U-Boat bases and cut off the Med to Allied shipping and seize Gib.

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Portugal isn't automatically pushed. Germany already had great ports due to France. Spanish ports are going to be poorly run, poorly armed and full of Allied spies.

War ends either in 1941 or 1942. With the european war coming to an end after Axis manage to push UK out of mid-east and position themselves for either an invasion through Iran/Persia into India with Japanese backing, or seek to re-liberate Ethiopia and move south through the Nile.

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None of this helps Rommel in Egypt or Libya.

India? You are crazy.

The added manpower, industry and resources would shift the war so greatly into the Axis favor that by the time the US enters the war it will be unable to produce goods quickly enough to prevent both the British and the SU bailing from the war entirely, and try as you might the US and the disorganized commonwealth forces at this point would be unable to stand their ground in any protracted ground conflict with the axis well into 1944-1945, by which point at the absolute latest, the soviet will collapse thanks to the roughly 1-2 million more men deployed by Germany and the loss of the Iran convoy route due to Turkey and Spain helping Italy eliminate the allied control over the middle east.

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Britian is not quitting and the USSR can't bail, the Nazi's simply won't let them. And the USSR is not going to fall under Nazi power, not when they have to send troops to help Spain and Turkey now.

Any Swedish alliance with Germany is only possible as a result of a direct allied invasion post-April 1940. Any Swedish politician arguing for allying with the occupiers of Denmark and Norway would be deposed almost immediately.

Talk about burdens on Germany between Spain's lack of so many basic needs and a majority of Turkey's army lacking rifles...

Didn't Spain just emerge from the Spanish Civil War? And why would Turkey join the Axis?

I think the Murmansk railroad could be cut, and that would be important, but then, Murmansk only accounted for about 25% of military aid to the USSR. Keep in mind that the addition of Swedish troops in Finland would further tax the area's poor logistical system. A capture of Murmansk would be extremely unlikely in 1941, but the railroad might be cut. A useful benefit would be the diversion of Swedish aircraft to assist the operatiosn up north, where the Germans only allocated 60 for the entire sector.

As for Leningrad, I don't see why the Germans would waste Swedish troops in a frontal assault when they didn't do that in OTL.

One possibility is that Hitler would send Swedish troops to defend Norway to free up German troops for Barbarossa.

Still, I don't see why Sweden, or any of these countries for that matter, would declare war. They don't have much to gain at all.

One more thing, why are we assuming that the declaration of war from Spain would necessarily entail the collapse of Gibraltar? It was well fortified with direct access to the most powerful navy in the Atlantic.

Other than that, mowque pretty much hit the nail on the head already.

The only way I could see Spain joining in is if France continued to resist in June 1940 and the Germans were thus wiling to offer a chunk of France, Morroco and part of Algeria to Spain, Franco would have to have some delusional moments to even think about it but since Mussolini was delusional in June 1940 maybe its possible.

Instead of the Battle of Britain, the Germans move as much airforce as they can supply into Spanish Africa and southern spain and try to secure the area.

Grimm Reaper said:

Talk about burdens on Germany between Spain's lack of so many basic needs and a majority of Turkey's army lacking rifles...

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I tried to address this, but thanks for making it more clear.

KyleB said:

One more thing, why are we assuming that the declaration of war from Spain would necessarily entail the collapse of Gibraltar? It was well fortified with direct access to the most powerful navy in the Atlantic.

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I don't know much about Gibralter, but it's importance is somewhat overstated. Most WW2 material went around the Horn, not through the Med, which was a war-zone.

Other than that, mowque pretty much hit the nail on the head already.

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Thank you.

In terms of accesibility, the Iberian penisular might as well be an island. It's much easier to supply and support military forces on it by sea than by land, even in the 1940s. What does this mean? More fronts for German forces to be expended on (at the very least a Portugese front and a Gibraltan front). Even if British forces can only maintain a slim beachhead they will maintain it as they will be far more easily supplied than any Axis force can be. As I always say, great logistics beats great tactics (The Nazis never did learn this in ww2).

For Turkey, they have a very long land borders with the USSR, British Empire and French Empire. Once Syria either goes Free French or is taken by the Free French, Turkey will go down the pan. Again logostics is the key, the Allies have better logisitics than the Axis here.

For Sweden - they aren't vulnerable to the Allies the way that Spain and Turkey are but they aren't strong enough to significantly change the balance of things

In the final analysis, if these three countries join the axis it will delay the end of the war a bit, maybe even long enough for Berlin to get a dose of instant sunrise, but the Axis still loses

Why would Sweden join the Axis? It was quite happy to provide them with araw materials in OTL. It has no territory to gain.

So...

Faeelin said:

Why would Sweden join the Axis? It was quite happy to provide them with araw materials in OTL. It has no territory to gain.

So...

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You'd really have to get Sweden into the Winter war first. If you do that, and the winter war still has the same basic outcome, you might see Swedish participation in the Continuation war. Still unlikely, but far more likely than Sweden just up and declaring war on all of Germany's enemies.