A Free Iran

[M79]

Suppose that somehow Iran becomes a free country of some kind in the late 70s/early 80s with genuine popular representation on at least some level. What does the situation look like when the USSR falls? Would a free, more prosperous Iran try to regain its old territories in Azerbaijan, Turkmeistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and possibly elsewhere? Does Iraq mind its own business or does war still occur? And what would it look like today?

[d32123]

Define "free".

[M79]

Free = no more secret police, a regime that can stand because its people want it to but without being utterly repressive against all opponents. Does not necessarily have to be democratic if its people are ok with that.

[baldipaul]

M79, all states have secret police of one kind or another. Don't think thats a definition of freedom. Non interference in who can stand as a representative would be a better definition, along with equality of media access.

[MerryPrankster]

Originally Posted by baldipaul

M79, all states have secret police of one kind or another. Don't think thats a definition of freedom. Non interference in who can stand as a representative would be a better definition, along with equality of media access.

All states? The FBI and Secret Service can in no way be equated to the NKVD and the Gestapo, or in this contest, SAVAK and its successor the SAVAMA.

[MerryPrankster]

Now, for a POD, perhaps an earlier abdication or death of the Shah and ascension of his son, who, being rather young and having served in the U.S. military (I think he was a fighter pilot in Texas at the time of the revolution), might be more amenable to true constitutional rule.

The Shah liked to drive around Tehran in fast cars, so him having an accident and dying or being so injured he decides he cannot govern properly could be a POD. Him getting the cancer earlier than OTL might work too.

It needs to be before there's a critical mass of discontent that would topple the monarchy entirely and install Khomeini.

[anotherlurker]

Originally Posted by MerryPrankster

All states? The FBI and Secret Service can in no way be equated to the NKVD and the Gestapo, or in this contest, SAVAK and its successor the SAVAMA.

FBI/CIA/whatever also have more than enough power to let people disappear, detain them without a reason, raid your home at night and shoot your kid without facing charges.

your closest thing to "free" would probably be switzerland, and they dont play to the USAs rules.

a switzerland iran would be as unacceptable as a religious nutjub iran, it's a far too important strategic location.