WI: Germany Develops Nukes in Early 1944

[MattII]

The only cities the Germans can get anywhere near (due to not having an aircraft even halfway up to the job) are the coastal ones or the railway connected ones, the more poorly defended the better.

[Cook]

Would people please stop saying, ‘they couldn’t have dropped an atomic bomb, they didn’t have an aircraft big enough!’ The never had a requirement for a bomber with such a large payload, so they never issued a specification for one and never attempted to develop one. Had they required one, doubtless they would have developed one.

[RamscoopRaider]

Originally Posted by Cook

Would people please stop saying, ‘they couldn’t have dropped an atomic bomb, they didn’t have an aircraft big enough!’ The never had a requirement for a bomber with such a large payload, so they never issued a specification for one and never attempted to develop one. Had they required one, doubtless they would have developed one.

But how quickly could they get it, when will the specification be issued

The US had the advantage in that we had long range heavy bombers already in the pipeline (and spent more on them than the Manhattan project), Germany doesn't and probably won't as all their enemies are close by and by the time they realize they need one for nukes (as in know they will have a bomb soon), it is probably too late

[Cook]

Originally Posted by RamscoopRaider

But how quickly could they get it, when will the specification be issued

They’d have about two years to develop it, more than enough time given the speed the Germans developed aircraft from the drawing board to operational aircraft. Two years because the size of the bomb was calculated very early on in the Manhattan Program, based on the amount of fissionable material required to achieve critical mass and a chain reaction.

[amphibulous]

Originally Posted by Cook

Would people please stop saying, ‘they couldn’t have dropped an atomic bomb, they didn’t have an aircraft big enough!’ The never had a requirement for a bomber with such a large payload, so they never issued a specification for one and never attempted to develop one. Had they required one, doubtless they would have developed one.

1. Given the development time for such an aircraft that decision would have had to have been made early in the bomb project's life when it was still speculative. This is an unlikely commitment of scarce resources - especially design talent.

2. Given that unlike the German's couldn't hope for the conditions the US had over Japan - an absence of effective defense - and the extreme scarcity of a-bombs at the end of a program, then delivery by air would have been questionable even if the Germans had possessed a long-range escort fighter force. Which they didn't, which they'd have known when considering development of the bomber.

So while it is possible they might have developed a bomber, it wouldn't have been the smart thing to do - not by a long way.

[mowque]

Worrying about the plane is like putting the cart before the horse. Nazi Germany isn't getting a bomb, at least, not following any OTL-like war.

[RamscoopRaider]

Originally Posted by Cook

They’d have about two years to develop it, more than enough time given the speed the Germans developed aircraft from the drawing board to operational aircraft. Two years because the size of the bomb was calculated very early on in the Manhattan Program, based on the amount of fissionable material required to achieve critical mass and a chain reaction.

Yes but were any of these 4 or 6 engine heavies?

Also there is a difference between getting it off the ground and actually getting into service, it took 2 years for the B-29 to go from specification to first flight, it took 2 more years to enter service

And learning how to drop an atomic bomb is a very time consuming task, it took months to work out proper technique (around 6) once you actually have the airframe flying

[amphibulous]

Originally Posted by Cook

They’d have about two years to develop it, more than enough time given the speed the Germans developed aircraft from the drawing board to operational aircraft. Two years because the size of the bomb was calculated very early on in the Manhattan Program, based on the amount of fissionable material required to achieve critical mass and a chain reaction.

The aircraft the Germans developed that quickly were fighters, where they had a great deal of experience and previous success. Fighters were simpler to produce than bombers because of sheer size. And those two-year aircraft all suffered badly from shortened development. A project combining all these factors does not look good!

That's to the extent that the two year claim is true at all. Which isn't much. The 262 had 4 years of development. So did the 190. The Me210 the same - and it was an update of an existing aircraft. The 163 rocket fighter was a conversion of this aircraft

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lippisch_Delta_IV

..work on which started in 1932! Real examples of two year development from scratch come down to a few small and not very successful freak rocket gliders.

[BlairWitch749]

Originally Posted by amphibulous

The aircraft the Germans developed that quickly were fighters, where they had a great deal of experience and previous success. Fighters were simpler to produce than bombers because of sheer size. And those two-year aircraft all suffered badly from shortened development. A project combining all these factors does not look good!

That's to the extent that the two year claim is true at all. Which isn't much. The 262 had 4 years of development. So did the 190. The Me210 the same - and it was an update of an existing aircraft. The 163 rocket fighter was a conversion of this aircraft

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lippisch_Delta_IV

..work on which started in 1932!

The Heinkel 177 B series prototypes (the ones that did the Manchester to Lancaster type 2 to 4 conversion) could have carried a 1945 nuke; their payload was 6000kg

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by BlairWitch749

The Heinkel 177 B series prototypes (the ones that did the Manchester to Lancaster type 2 to 4 conversion) could have carried a 1945 nuke; their payload was 6000kg

Before or after its engines self-immolate?

[amphibulous]

Originally Posted by BlairWitch749

The Heinkel 177 B series prototypes (the ones that did the Manchester to Lancaster type 2 to 4 conversion) could have carried a 1945 nuke; their payload was 6000kg

http://www.historyofwar.org/articles/weapons_he177.html

Normally retained internal bomb bay for 1000kg of bombs (2205lbs) plus under wing pylons for a variety of advanced munitions.

So a Fatman isn't going to go in that bomb bay, and carrying 6000kg under either wing isn't going to be feasible.

But the best targets are in the US anyway, and getting bombs there by u-boat is safer than flying through air defenses over Russia and the UK.

[amphibulous]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Before or after its engines self-immolate?

The 4 engine version shouldn't have that problem, surely?

[MrChief]

Originally Posted by wcv215

Ignoring impossibility for a moment, ifthe Germans manage to build a bomb the Americans will have finished one as well most likely.

Hitler would likely launch a suicide strike against London or hit the Soviets which the Allies will launch total retaliation for. Expect at least one German city to be struck in retaliation, probably more.

Just a note here don't forget that the Americans completed their development of the Bomb with a lot of aquired German knowledge aka the paperclip conspiracy.

Additionally a V2 rocket had a payload of 1000kg, so if they had developed smaller nukes, rather than fixate on the American design and go a little outside the box here. Could they have developed a 1000kg nuclear device, it is a possibility, I know technology possibly was not there at the time, but if it was, then what?

This, after all, is a forum dedicated to the question what if?

[BlondieBC]

Most of the weight of fatman was the iron casing to protect against AAA. If the Germans build the bomb without a heavy iron case, it easily fits in a German bomber. The unneeded iron was over half the weight of the bomb. The USA made it big because we could, not because we had to.

[mowque]

Originally Posted by MrChief

Additionally a V2 rocket had a payload of 1000kg, so if they had developed smaller nukes, rather than fixate on the American design and go a little outside the box here. Could they have developed a 1000kg nuclear device, it is a possibility, I know technology possibly was not there at the time, but if it was, then what?

Then it doesn't happen.

[BlairWitch749]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Before or after its engines self-immolate?

the lancasterized he-177B didn't keep the prone to fire coupled engine layout

[The Red]

Originally Posted by BlairWitch749

let's say they detonate a nuke or dirty bomb in france to impede the allied advance (cherbourg for argument's sake)... the retaliation will involve the mass anthraxing of Germany and the extermination of their entire culture... there would be some awfully nervous people in the OKW and OKH who wouldn't be enthralled with the idea of employing this

The Germans didn't know about Anthrax however.

[MrChief]

Originally Posted by mowque

Then it doesn't happen.

I think you are missing the point here, after a little research the technology, and weapons wise Germany were far more advanced than the US in 1944, it was German scientists that completed the Manhatten project................it was also German Scientists that enabled space travel for both the USA and USSR. (the paperclip conspiracy).

So it could have happened. The Reich were dangerously close to nuclear technology had the sabotage of Vemork, Norsk Hydro not been successful who knows where that could have gone. Therefore it is possible that this could have happened. Hitler was about in estimate 6 to 8 months away from developing a nuclear bomb at this time and all that prevented it was the destruction of the material that would have fused it.

The planned delivery medium eas the V2 rocket, which automatically leads to the assumption that a 1000kg payload was the plan, although there were plans for a 2000kg version of the rocket, but that had an estimated completion date of 1948. So, the prospect of the Third Reich developing nuclear weapons in this period is highly possible for the following reasons:

1 They had the scientific know how the success of the Manhatten project owes its accellerated success to captured German scientists.

2 They had the material to build it, until a commando mission in Norway removed it

3 They had the ideal delivery medium in the V2 long before anyone else.

4 A 1000kg payload nuke was possible. The radiation leakage from lack of cladding may have been an issue but this was an unmanned missile, so does does it matter?

So the what if comes into play in a very big way now:

I have no doubt that because of Hitler's inbuilt affinity to the British (a war that by his own admission, Hitler never wanted) London would have only received conventional payloads. However, Moscow is another situation altogether. The Russians were not even considered human in Nazi ideology, so frying a few hundred thousand would have meant nothing, lets face it the horrors of the holocaust on the Jews show what they were prepared to do to pervieved sub-humans.

Therefore I think that the precept here is a valid one and worthy of some research.

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by MrChief

I think you are missing the point here, after a little research the technology, and weapons wise Germany were far more advanced than the US in 1944, it was German scientists that completed the Manhatten project................it was also German Scientists that enabled space travel for both the USA and USSR. (the paperclip conspiracy).
*snip*

No. Germans went to a complete dead end with their technology. Whether Heisenbeg deliberately sabotaged the project or just did not have access to right team to work with him is open to discussion. German atomic program took direction more toward energy producing purposes than weapons. Their initial calculations convinced them that no amount of uranium would suffice for weapon grade criticality. German nuclear scientists in fact initially refused to believe Americans exploded the bomb over Japan.

[BlairWitch749]

Originally Posted by The Red

The Germans didn't know about Anthrax however.

The abwehr knew a little bit about it; just not the scale and destructive power