WI: Germany Develops Nukes in Early 1944

[superjames1992]

And has them available at D-Day.

What happens next?

Do they nuke the landing beaches?

Would nukes prove decisive on the Eastern Front?

[Germaniac]

Germany didn't have access to all the materials necessary to build a bomb, much less enough to be willing to use on a beach instead of a city. IF, and thats a big ASB if, they were able to get a bomb they would likely use it on a major center of production in the Soviet Union

[wcv215]

Ignoring impossibility for a moment, ifthe Germans manage to build a bomb the Americans will have finished one as well most likely.

Hitler would likely launch a suicide strike against London or hit the Soviets which the Allies will launch total retaliation for. Expect at least one German city to be struck in retaliation, probably more.

[BlondieBC]

There are similar threads in the recent past. Search can find them.

It depends on how many nuclear weapons,and how much the weapon weights.

IMO, Germany would used them on major British ports to stop D-Day from even being launched. One nuclear weapon would not change that much. Ten to 20 nuclear weapons used on the British ports would effectively prevent D-Day for at least a year, and allow Hitler to concentrate on Russia. I don't think this wins the war for him, just delays it long enough for the USA to use nuclear weapons on Germany.

One German nuclear weapon is really ASB, much less enough to make a difference.

[amphibulous]

Originally Posted by superjames1992

And has them available at D-Day.

What happens next?

Do they nuke the landing beaches?

Would nukes prove decisive on the Eastern Front?

Nuking battlefield targets is useless unless you have an ASB type number of bombs - the target is too diffuse and the bombs range of destruction much too small. You'd need to blackmail the Allies by threatening cities.

Ironically, targeting the US might be easier than the UK. The UK is a small defended zone with radar, coastal patrols and massive Allied air superiority - and you won't have bombs to waste. The US otoh has a vast coastline that should make smuggling a bomb on shore from a U-boat relatively safe security-wise. (Although the bomb is big, so it will need to be piggybacked to the US on the back of the sub. Then it's on to a truck and off to New York.

You then have to detonate at least one bomb, either in a city or at an observable test site, to show the Allies what you have. Your negotiating power then will depend on how many bombs you can convince them you have. Remember that the number of deaths isn't huge by WW2 standards - no more than the larger conventional bombing raids - and they won't believe you have more than a handful, so this is mostly a psychological weapon.

Even if you could hit a Russian city, which you can't, they'd certainly tough it out. The US might be an easy target, because it's civilians are assumed to be safe and it's easily the most casualty averse as a combatant. The UK will be somewhere between.

[amphibulous]

Originally Posted by Germaniac

Germany didn't have access to all the materials necessary to build a bomb, much less enough to be willing to use on a beach instead of a city. IF, and thats a big ASB if, they were able to get a bomb they would likely use it on a major center of production in the Soviet Union

Their chances of carrying one that far late in the war are remote. Especially as they don't have a decent heavy bomber, so the bomb would have to go on a transport plane.

[Daylight Savings]

Originally Posted by amphibulous

Their chances of carrying one that far late in the war are remote. Especially as they don't have a decent heavy bomber, so the bomb would have to go on a transport plane.

I think the only way to get a bomb to a major Soviet city is going to be subterfuge. I'm imagining a dozen SS oficers willing to sacrifice themselves being driven posed as prisoners headed for HQ in a truck hiding the bomb.

[JN1]

Germany developing atomic weapons when they had less resources than the Manhattan Project and their leading nuclear scientist, Heisenberg, thought it impossible to actually build a bomb is ASB.

[zoomar]

There has been at least one recent thread about this, but I'll bite again. Accepting that this is actually possible, Germany would be faced with the fact that it lacked a truly reliable delivery system, given the war situation in 1944. Any early nuclear bombs available to Germany in 1944 would be more like "devices" big, heavy, and bulky things. Germany did not have anything remotely approaching the capability of the B-29 (ie a bomber with a massive payload that could operate at ceilings and speeds to avoid both most interceptors as well asthe effects of the bomb explosion), nor could one be fitted on a V-2 or V-1.

Even granting the basic insanity of the Nazi regime, I doubt even they would risk attempting to fly the few nuclear bombs available to them to Moscow or London. The most likely strategy would be to use them more as massive land mines - plant then in sites soon to be invaded or occupied by the Soviets or Western Allies and detonate them. Warsaw, Paris, etc. Possibly a bomb could even be smuggled into a major port like New York in a "neutral" steamer?

[BlairWitch749]

let's say they detonate a nuke or dirty bomb in france to impede the allied advance (cherbourg for argument's sake)... the retaliation will involve the mass anthraxing of Germany and the extermination of their entire culture... there would be some awfully nervous people in the OKW and OKH who wouldn't be enthralled with the idea of employing this

[zoomar]

Originally Posted by BlairWitch749

let's say they detonate a nuke or dirty bomb in france to impede the allied advance (cherbourg for argument's sake)... the retaliation will involve the mass anthraxing of Germany and the extermination of their entire culture... there would be some awfully nervous people in the OKW and OKH who wouldn't be enthralled with the idea of employing this

Not so sure about this.

The western allies were not brutes. Since they didn't immediately line up every German and shoot them after discovering Dachau and the like, I have a hard time believeing they would "exterminate" all of German culture in response to the use of a nuclear weapon in a clearly military context as you describe. Use of biologiocal or chemical weapons against military or civilian targets in retaliation is a possibility.

The allies were already killing tens of thousands of Germans nightly in bombing raids, so I doubt the OKW and OKH would feel too deterred againt using this new wunderweapon. Plus, it woud almost certainly be Hitler's call anyway.

Also, Allied leadership would be fully aware they themselves were developing such a bomb with the obvious intention of using it if necessary.

This might accelerate the Manhattan program as much as possible, and/or press the deployment of the first weapon without testing or as much preparation as in OTL. It would certainly mean that, if the allied bomb was available prior to VE day it would definitely be used against a German target.

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

August 24, 1944: as Allied troops fight their way into Paris, Von Cholitz orders the "kettle" (sitting in an abandoned restaurant on the second level of the Eiffel Tower) to be lit...

[BlairWitch749]

Originally Posted by zoomar

Not so sure about this.

The western allies were not brutes. Since they didn't immediately line up every German and shoot them after discovering Dachau and the like, I have a hard time believeing they would "exterminate" all of German culture in response to the use of a nuclear weapon in a clearly military context as you describe. Use of biologiocal or chemical weapons against military or civilian targets in retaliation is a possibility.

The allies were already killing tens of thousands of Germans nightly in bombing raids, so I doubt the OKW and OKH would feel too deterred againt using this new wunderweapon. Plus, it woud almost certainly be Hitler's call anyway.

Also, Allied leadership would be fully aware they themselves were developing such a bomb with the obvious intention of using it if necessary.

This might accelerate the Manhattan program as much as possible, and/or press the deployment of the first weapon without testing or as much preparation as in OTL. It would certainly mean that, if the allied bomb was available prior to VE day it would definitely be used against a German target.

The city bombing was intensely brutal; this was total war... the only difference from the east was no ground extermination... a nuke which kills 20k troops and sickens 20k more is going to be the excuse that Winston needs to take the gloves off... if Germany surrenders quickly they might survive, but likely Hitler and the leadership are so stunned at the scale of the destruction and collapse from mass anthrax poisoning that they don't do anything and Germany is turned into Carthage

[Astrodragon]

The obvious way to deliver a heavy device is to put it in a U-boat and sail it somewhere...say New York.

Then wait for the Anthrax...

[amphibulous]

Originally Posted by Daylight Savings

I think the only way to get a bomb to a major Soviet city is going to be subterfuge. I'm imagining a dozen SS oficers willing to sacrifice themselves being driven posed as prisoners headed for HQ in a truck hiding the bomb.

A Fatman type bomb is going to weigh 4 metric tons. You can't hide it in a military truck of the period. Even if you could drive deep into the USSR to where the factories were, which would take days to do and require that you pass dozens of checkpoints where credentials and movement orders will be checked.

And if you cost the Soviets 5% of their war production, which would be doing extremely well, so what?

[amphibulous]

Originally Posted by JN1

Germany developing atomic weapons when they had less resources than the Manhattan Project and their leading nuclear scientist, Heisenberg, thought it impossible to actually build a bomb is ASB.

The V2 cost more than the M'Project did. If the German scientists get serious and lucky and they get the attention of the leadership, it's possible. Maybe. Barely.

[iddt3]

Originally Posted by amphibulous

The V2 cost more than the M'Project did. If the German scientists get serious and lucky and they get the attention of the leadership, it's possible. Maybe. Barely.

I don't think so, even with the full industrial might of the western allies behind it, it took until '45, Germany has less resources, less space to work on the bomb (and no where that's going to be immune to bombing). From a German prospective, they made the right decision on the bomb. It wasn't going to be ready in time to make a difference in the war, so devoting serious resources to it would have been a waste.

[juanml82]

Then again, the OP says nothing about nazis and WWII. So, a surviving Weimar Republic which peacefully integrates Austria and employs the best minds in Central Europe watches as France goes communist. Surrounded by communist countries by both west and east, and confident in the lack of readiness of the Soviet Union, it launches a preemptive strike against the Comitern, with the tacit support of the USA and a reluctant UK, which rather see a capitalist power dominating Europe rather than a communist alliance doing so. Germany is not subject to a blockade, the RN even escorting British flagged merchants to neutral Holland.
By 1944, a peace treaty has been brokered with the USSR and D-Day is the German invasion of Algeria, where staunch French forces remain after being expelled from, let's call it, European France in 1941. The bombs are used to clear the beaches. However, due the limited knowledge of radiation, the troops are sent right after the bombs are launched and die shortly after of radiation poisoning.

[wcv215]

Originally Posted by amphibulous

The V2 cost more than the M'Project did. If the German scientists get serious and lucky and they get the attention of the leadership, it's possible. Maybe. Barely.

So? The Manhattan project took 1/5 of the U.S. power generation. Additionally, the Germans didn't have all the necessary, and their scientists had wrong ideas about the bomb.

[M79]

Probably hit these targets in this order:

-Moscow
-London
-St Petersburg
-Portsmouth
-Suez Canal
-Ufa
-Gibralter
-Tankograd, likely designed as a one-way trip via naval recon plane
-Omsk, likely designed as a one-way trip via naval recon plane
-Birmingham
-Murmansk
-Washington, likely designed as a one-way trip via naval recon plane

It would be very difficult to accomplish, but if all research were united under one division and communucation not only permitted but encouraged between the groups it would make a lot of difference. Move the Norsk Hydro plant somewhere much safer and get the Germans to think about using graphite as a component again. Then you *might* get them to a prototype or two in very late 1944 *if* everything goes their way and they get *very* lucky researching all the right things. Or swap out rocket research for nuke research, that might help quite a bit. Most likely they are just closer to a nuke at the end of the war, but then since all that is still secret we won't know for another ~30 years.