AHC and WI: Dutch Keep Formosa

[John Fredrick Parker]

With a PoD no earlier than 1661, how can Koxinga's invasion of Taiwan fail? Subsequently, how can the Dutch hold the island until at least the end of the century? And what would be the effects therein -- on the balance of power in the Pacific, on China, on the Dutch Empire, what have you?

[Color-Copycat]

Have Koxinga die defending Fujian province from Manchu attack. Without his leadership, it'd be hard for anyone to gather the manpower necessary to lay siege to the Dutch garrison in Taiwan, since the Manchus were still busy consolidating their power over the rest of the mainland.

[Color-Copycat]

Alternatively, have the East India Company reinforce the Formosan garrison. IIRC, the Dutch governor pleaded for backup upon realizing the true scale of Koxinga's invasion force, but the higher ups in the East Indies colonies refused to send reinforcements, and the governor believed that to be the reason for his defeat.

[The Ubbergeek]

Maybe the Manchus would strike a deal with another power to share some, and so... seize it back? Like, 'we give you concessions rights for theorical rule of ours on chineses'?

[Tsao]

Originally Posted by The Ubbergeek

Maybe the Manchus would strike a deal with another power to share some, and so... seize it back? Like, 'we give you concessions rights for theorical rule of ours on chineses'?

With who? Who else is there to negotiate with? This is the 1600s, not the 1800s.

[The Ubbergeek]

Originally Posted by Tsao Tongyu

With who? Who else is there to negotiate with? This is the 1600s, not the 1800s.

Spain? Or the portugeses?

[Tocomocho]

Originally Posted by The Ubbergeek

Maybe the Manchus would strike a deal with another power to share some, and so... seize it back? Like, 'we give you concessions rights for theorical rule of ours on chineses'?

China can't seize it 'back' since it never owned it before.

Without Koxinga setting a Chinese kingdom in Taiwan, the Qing would have no incentive to invade, since there would be no fear of it being used as a base to re-invade China and restore the Ming dynasty.

(Gee, it's true that History repeats itself!)

[Faeelin]

The island would pretty much be turned into a sugar colony, IMO: it's what the Qing used it for and its what the Dutch used Java for, mostly.

Hrm. I suppose the British would grab it in something like the *Napoleonic Wars; would they need Hong Kong, then?

(It doesn't have to be the British, but Taiwan is a trading post that's much closer to China than anything else).

[The Ubbergeek]

Originally Posted by Tocomocho

China can't seize it 'back' since it never owned it before.

Without Koxinga setting a Chinese kingdom in Taiwan, the Qing would have no incentive to invade, since there would be no fear of it being used as a base to re-invade China and restore the Ming dynasty.

(Gee, it's true that History repeats itself!)

I am not sure that first, there was no chinese settlers in small numbers before, 'illegaly' or such, and that there was no vague 'we own this island' claim theoricaly.