W.I Mussolini had ?

[warlock]

Over on the naval board a interesting question came up. W.I. Mussolini had followed Franco's lead ,what would the Italian navy look like in 1942/43?What if Mussolini had join the allies say 1942/43?

[lukedalton]

Well probably Falco and/or Sparviero, basically cruise liner transformed in aircraft carrier, will become operational and the battleships of the Cavour class will be dismissed and the two new Littorio Class (Roma and Impero) will be on their place.

[Cook]

Originally Posted by warlock

W.I. Mussolini had followed Franco's lead?

By that I take it you mean Mussolini remain a non-belligerent rather than declare war?

[warlock]

Originally Posted by Cook

By that I take it you mean Mussolini remain a non-belligerent rather than declare war?

Yes ,Mussolini remains neutral (or maybe joins the allies.)

[Cook]

Originally Posted by warlock

Yes ,Mussolini remains neutral (or maybe joins the allies.)

Okay, firstly it needs to be clarified that for much of the war Franco’s Spain was not neutral; Spain became a Non-belligerent following the fall of Paris. In this Franco was following Mussolini’s lead; Italy had become a Non-belligerent in August 1939. For most of the war German U-boats were able to operate discretely from Spanish ports.

Given the very close political ties between the two nations at the time, Italy remaining entirely neutral is rather unlikely and joining the allies is totally out of the realms of realism. But Italy remaining Non-Belligerent seems less likely, the Germans weren’t particularly keen on Italian entry into the war in June 1940.

The immediate question is how and why? Remaining Non-Belligerent and providing passive support may be the logical decision with the benefit of hindsight, but that isn’t what it looked like in June and July 1940, when France was clearly doomed and it looked like Britain wasn’t far behind. It’s worth noting that Franco wasn’t any more prescient than Mussolini, he just had a much more limited power base to act from and was therefore necessarily more circumspect in his actions; as already mentioned, Spain became a Non-Belligerent supporter of Germany on the day Paris fell to the Germans, they also seized the city of Tangier which at the time was an open city administered by the League of Nations.

If Italy didn’t enter the war directly, then the war doesn’t move south. The British would still need to station forces in the Mediterranean to deal with the threat posed by Mussolini but it would not be the significant theatre of operations that it was. The Italians would likely be suffering severely from a shortage of fuel; the British and Americans wouldn’t be selling to them and the Germans aren’t likely to be as keen to spare them any either. You may see the Italian fleet largely confined to port due to shortages unless the Germans saw the benefit of the threat posed to the British Empire by an active Italian fleet.

[lukedalton]

The immediate question is how and why? Remaining Non-Belligerent and providing passive support may be the logical decision with the benefit of hindsight, but that isn’t what it looked like in June and July 1940, when France was clearly doomed and it looked like Britain wasn’t far behind. It’s worth noting that Franco wasn’t any more prescient than Mussolini, he just had a much more limited power base to act from and was therefore necessarily more circumspect in his actions; as already mentioned, Spain became a Non-Belligerent supporter of Germany on the day Paris fell to the Germans, they also seized the city of Tangier which at the time was an open city administered by the League of Nations.

Well maybe he follow the suggestion of Ciano and the military, they were aware of the problem of the armed forces and a little more cautious, so Benny supress his intention of 'Buon Romagnolo' to follow is instinct and wait some more time; will probably accept the bribe of UK/Frace to remain neutraly so to grab something. The Navy will have enough autonomy for peacetime operation and something more, Supermarina had good reserve, but in the end she must divide that with the airforce and the crucial industry, so with no war and a very lessened operational pace she can be still functional.

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

This requires changes likely as early as the Anschluss issue, there was a point in time during which Hitler and Mussolini's status as Axis buddies for life was in serious jeopardy, mostly over conflicting spheres of influence in Austria, Hitler wanted his homeland back, Mussolini didn't want Austria falling into the German sphere of influence, but by the time Anschluss happened Mussolini had written them off.

Earlier though, when Germany was not ready for war and Italy had a stronger military... things could have gotten nasty.

I also agree with Cook that allied Italy is pretty unlikely unless you go really far back, neutral Italy that just sort of watches the world go by and quietly lets German shipping refuel at Italian ports while looking for prize pieces of various countries to snag up during the war (like Slovenia) is more possible.