WI: Austria-Hungary is better prepared for WWI?

[General_Finley]

Bogdan Zerajic claimed that he had a chance to kill the Austro-Hungarian Emperor, but decided against it. The idea for the Pod would be that Bogdan Zerajic tries to kill the Emperor, but fails; he fires a couple shot injuring Franz Joseph, but not killing him. War doesn't arise from this incident, but it does shake the officials in Budapest enough to increase the yearly intake of recruits almost two years earlier than OTL, uping the yearly intake of recruits from 0.29% to .47% (the same intake as Germany). Because of the rising feeling after the attempted assasination that war is inevitable, Günther Burstyn's Motorgeschütz is taken more seriously and a contract for the construction of Motorgeschütz is put out to Steyr Tractor. Over the next couple of years the Motorgeschütz evolves some, getting up-armored and uping the gun size slightly. While there is a push for these weapons have their own Corps as somthing like an cavalry or Dragoon regiment they are in the end adopted as a "Heavy Branch" of the Infantry, the idea being that they will be used mostly as infantry support. Along with the Motorgeschütz it is decided that a second look should be taken at Günther Burstyn's armored car idea.

The German War Department is not very excited by the Motorgeschütz and what they think is a bad investment on the part of Austria-Hungary and don't end up building there own Motorgeschütz. They are however enthusiastic that Austria is building up its military.

In 1914 Archduke Franz Ferdinand is assasinated and the world is plunged into war. How does this slightly improved Austro-Hungarian military change the war?

[abc123]

Considering advanced age of Franz Jospeh at the time, I wounder would he survive serious wound?

[Berus]

I think that depends where he was hit.

[Devvy]

Getting shot in the arm is probably damn painful, but it is visible and long-lasting. I doubt many Austrians would take well to seeing their Emperor walking round like Napoleon for some time. However I don't think it's immediately life threatening unlike the chest.

[Monty Burns]

If the AH military is only slightly improved, I don't see that much changes.

However, if they have improved enough so that they can attack Serbia immediately, the whole war might be avoided - for now.

[BlondieBC]

The issue is butterflies. When the Entente see a massive hike in A-H spending, what do they do? Does France go past 3 years conscription? Does France give even more money to help Russia? Is the German Army smaller or larger? How does A-H change its War Plans? Does Serbia even challenge a stronger A-H? Does A-H buy newer artillery? Does Hungary still fight against war spending? How does Italy see a rapidly arming A-H? etc, etc.

[Berus]

Maybe they could build their army secretly or something ? Not sure if that is possible ?

[Keb]

Alternately, you could improve performance by avoiding the investment into armoured trains and pour money into armoured cars (IIRC, the proposed Daimler model was quite good). It doesn't increase the spending, but it does give the Army something more useful than the trains. Not to mention that, given standards of technology, the Motorgeschütz isn't likely to be very useful, tanks were ludicrously short-ranged and unreliable and Austria doesn't need something to take on Serbia (which they could OTL, provided they aren't fighting the bulk of Russia's army at the same time), they need something to fight Russia. Serbia can wait, sure it's a hit to the nation's prestige to leave Serbia unpunished, but the victories in the East (or, at the least, no loss of Przemysl) would more than make up for it.

A better performance can be easily achieved even with OTL resources, just have all reserves (A and B Staffel) sent to Galizia at the war's outset and skip attacking Serbia until Russia is taken care of. OTL, Conrad von Hotzendorf did personally promise Franz Jozef that he'd do so before he changed his mind and split the two groups (then had to pull the group sent to Serbia after the disaster in Galizia ... proceeding to lose that group too immediately afterward).

Furthermore, Austria's multinational structure pretty much devastated their effectiveness after they lost the multilingual officers and NCOs at the start of the war. Keep those intact and the initial size of the army isn't as relevant, since there's a good foundation for growth during the war.

[von Adler]

What Austria-Hungary really need is modern artillery. The guns they went to war with were very old, mostly 1880 vintage. Once they started getting excellent designs out in numbers, most of their well-trained pre-war artillerymen had surrendered at Przemysl.

[Simon]

Originally Posted by General_Finley

Bogdan Zerajic claimed that he had a chance to kill the Austro-Hungarian Emperor, but decided against it. The idea for the Pod would be that Bogdan Zerajic tries to kill the Emperor, but fails; he fires a couple shot injuring Franz Joseph, but not killing him.

What was the date of the claimed opportunity? Just so we have a definate date to work around.

Originally Posted by Keb

Alternately, you could improve performance by avoiding the investment into armoured trains and pour money into armoured cars (IIRC, the proposed Daimler model was quite good). It doesn't increase the spending, but it does give the Army something more useful than the trains.

Do you have any links for anywhere that gives some information on Daimler's designs? I'd be interested in having a look at them. I've got little knowledge of the eastern front but what was the terrain they were likely to be facing their enemies against like, would early armoured cars be robust enough to operate effectively?

Originally Posted by von Adler

What Austria-Hungary really need is modern artillery. The guns they went to war with were very old, mostly 1880 vintage. Once they started getting excellent designs out in numbers, most of their well-trained pre-war artillerymen had surrendered at Przemysl.

Weren't they in the middle of modernising their artillery, especially their heavy artillery, when war broke out? I seem to recall that if it hadn't been interrupted it was planned to be completed some time around 1918 or so, but events overtook them. Start this off a few years earlier or simply have it completed faster and you could give them a major boost, I'd also suggest somehow trying to increase the manufacturing capacity for artillery shells but since everyone ran short in the early stages that's probably a little too much hindsight.


Another factor that could be improved to help them be better prepared would be their transportation network. When Ernst von Koerber became Prime Minister in the early 1900s he proposed and managed to get passed by parliament a large public works program to expand the rail and canal networks in Cisleithenia but was eventually stymied by internal fighting thanks to the finance ministry. Two parts that would of really helped would of been the planned expansion of the rail link the Lemberg in Galicia and the expansion of the one to their main port Trieste which would of finally linked it to Prague in Bohemia, very useful if they decide to go with a Russia first strategy. A planned expansion like this would also likely result in the rolling stock also being updated and expanded. If handled properly it could help both boost the economy, or at least improve it so that it at least pays for itself, as well as help with regards to logistics.

[Max Sinister]

Where does Austria take the money from to build a bigger army?

And then there's the thing about Oberst (colonel) Redl who was blackmailed because he was gay and essentially had to tell everything he knew about the army, and some about the German army as well.

[Keb]

Originally Posted by Simon

Do you have any links for anywhere that gives some information on Daimler's designs? I'd be interested in having a look at them. I've got little knowledge of the eastern front but what was the terrain they were likely to be facing their enemies against like, would early armoured cars be robust enough to operate effectively?

Sorry, but not anymore. I know there were sources (pretty rare, there was only one prototype built), but I can't find them anymore since I don't remember the name of the vehicle.

IIRC, the model looked a bit like the Soviet BA-10. More compact, shorter and instead of a cannon, it mounted two machine guns in a more rounded turret. No secondaries and the turret was open at the rear. Or, alternately, a taller Rolls-Royce Armoured Car, which has the advantage of being from roughly the same period.

As for usefulness, well, given WWI vintage equipment, I'd say they wouldn't be very reliable. Short-range and brief engagements only. Still more reliable than tanks and certainly more useful than armoured trains that Austria poured money into.

[Berus]

I think you mean the Romfell, a pretty cool vehicle
http://www.patriotfiles.com/forum/sh...d.php?t=109680

The Austro Daimler Panzerwagen was from 1904 and was a quite modern vehicle in that time.
http://www.germanmilitaryhistory.com...-armoured-car/

The Burstyn Motorgeschütz, which was a pretty modern tank for its time but was never build
http://landships.activeboard.com/t37...ned-tank-ever/

Another intresting vehicle the "Versuchsgleitboot", the first functional hovercraft was constructed by Dagobert Müller von Thomamühl, but also here only prototypes were build
http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=10713

There is wikipedia article, but it's in German, and Google Translator makes it sound a bit weird.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radpanzer_(Österreich)

http://translate.google.com/translat...96sterreich%29

[Snake Featherston]

Austria-Hungary can do two things: it can prepare rationally to fight a war or it can survive as a harmonious empire ruling multiple ethnicities in an age of nationalism. It cannot do both. It had a multi-linguistic NCO and officer corps who IOTL were destroyed in the opening battles, but a militarily rational policy would demand *one* language for the army, not recognizing all languages. Too, the mobilization policies in both Cislethania and Hungary were extremely cumbersome, and to alter these again requires major political changes in the Empire that long predate WWI and arguably would butterfly away a scenario like OTL. Austria-Hungary was politically required to punch underneath its weight-class and saddled with a good deal of incompetent leaders in its high-command to complicate further these political requirements. Address all of these problems and you remove the reason for punitive war against Serbia in 1914, namely fear that further Serbian nationalist successes would further derail a multi-national state full of nationalisms.

[Keb]

Originally Posted by Berus

The Austro Daimler Panzerwagen was from 1904 and was a quite modern vehicle in that time.
http://www.germanmilitaryhistory.com...-armoured-car/

That's the one. And thank you for the sources, in particular for the hover craft, I've been looking forever for information on that thing.

[J.D.Ward]

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

but a militarily rational policy would demand *one* language for the army, not recognizing all languages.

Does anyone know anything about how the present-day Belgian and Swiss armed forces deal with the language problem?

[Snake Featherston]

Originally Posted by J.D.Ward

Does anyone know anything about how the present-day Belgian and Swiss armed forces deal with the language problem?

When did they have to fight a major war recently?

[Simon]

Originally Posted by Berus

I think you mean the Romfell, a pretty cool vehicle
http://www.patriotfiles.com/forum/showthread.php?t=109680

Huh, it apparently also had a morse telegraph in them. Makes you wonder if even if it's limited to the roads or good terrain what the possible improvement in communications at the front lines might have caused.

Originally Posted by Snake Featherston

Austria-Hungary can do two things: it can prepare rationally to fight a war or it can survive as a harmonious empire ruling multiple ethnicities in an age of nationalism. It cannot do both. It had a multi-linguistic NCO and officer corps who IOTL were destroyed in the opening battles, but a militarily rational policy would demand *one* language for the army, not recognizing all languages.

It should probably of tried to achieve some sort of lingua franca for normal every day and economic use as well as in the military sphere. Best thing I can think of would of been to allow mandatory education to be taught in the local languages but make it so that a fair section of time is spent learning to speak and read and write in Austrian German. Doesn't have to be highly technical so that you can hold deep philosophical debates in it but basic proficiency to handle day to day affairs and for military service it should also more than suffice. For that though you'd need to start a bit earlier than the current point of departure.

[General_Finley]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

The issue is butterflies. When the Entente see a massive hike in A-H spending, what do they do? Does France go past 3 years conscription? Does France give even more money to help Russia? Is the German Army smaller or larger? How does A-H change its War Plans? Does Serbia even challenge a stronger A-H? Does A-H buy newer artillery? Does Hungary still fight against war spending? How does Italy see a rapidly arming A-H? etc, etc.

I don't really think France would change anything because its wouldn't be dealing with Austria-Hungary. It's war plan is altered to emphisize the Eastern Front, because after seeing that the Russians will without a doubt stand by the Serbs they want to knock out the Russians as quickely as possible and then take out the Serbs. The increase in the size of the Austro-Hungarian Common army and its adoption of armored , tanks, and new artillery wouldn't really change the German army who has mixed feelings about the modernization (They are happy about the increase in the army's size, but think that some investments are a waste of money). one interesting thing though might be that with the Austro-Hungarians emphisizing the eastern front more the Germans might have less troops in the East and more in the west to try and knock out France faster, thinking that the Austro-Hungarians will pick up the slack in the east. As the OP says the Hungarians concede after the attempted assasination ofthe emperor and become less obstructive to military spending agreeing to an increase in the yearly intake of recruits, almost two years earlier than OTL. As for Italy, well they would be a wild card, the build up might frighten them out of the Central Powers, but if it doesn't and when the war starts and the Austro-Hungarians do better they might either stay neutral or ally with the central powers.

Originally Posted by Simon

What was the date of the claimed opportunity? Just so we have a definate date to work around.

It was 12 days before his attempted assasination of General Marijan Verešanin on June 15th 1910 so it would have been in June 3rd.

Originally Posted by Simon

Huh, it apparently also had a morse telegraph in them. Makes you wonder if even if it's limited to the roads or good terrain what the possible improvement in communications at the front lines might have caused.

That is incredibly interesting; I wonder what better communication with the front would have ment for the Battle of Galicia?

Originally Posted by Simon

It should probably of tried to achieve some sort of lingua franca for normal every day and economic use as well as in the military sphere. Best thing I can think of would of been to allow mandatory education to be taught in the local languages but make it so that a fair section of time is spent learning to speak and read and write in Austrian German. Doesn't have to be highly technical so that you can hold deep philosophical debates in it but basic proficiency to handle day to day affairs and for military service it should also more than suffice. For that though you'd need to start a bit earlier than the current point of departure.

When would be a better PoD to get this?

[Simon]

Originally Posted by General_Finley

When would be a better PoD to get this?

Not sure, I'm not really expert on the Austro-Hungarian Empire I've just got an irrational soft spot for it and have been mulling over some of the reforms they should of undertaken at one time or another in order to survive and prosper. The main problem is that the whole language question was also wrapped up in the whole nationalities affair, and as such it was hideously complex from what little I've read about it. Even with a 1910 point of departure four years still probably isn't long enough to have a major positive effect, you'd need to start it pre-1900 and the earlier the better which is way outside the timeframe we're talking about.