Which West African Country seems able to become a Modern superpower?

[Grouchio]

Which West African Country seems able to become a superpower in Africa? What problems and specific details each Country has be solved in order to modernize?

[King Henry]

none of them? I'm not sure a unified West Africa has the tax base or infrastructure, let alone the strategic depth, to be a superpower.

[mrmandias]

None of the above with an after 1900 POD. Absent Peshawar Lancer style weirdness.

[Antiochus]

Nigeria. Its really the only country in Africa that comes close.

Its the most populous country in Africa, it has large supplies of natural resources, a strong military, effectively is the head of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and contributes the most troops by a long way. It is also one of the three regional powers in Africa (along with Egypt and South Africa) and the only real potential power in West Africa.

Having said that it is still a long way from becoming a superpower, probably a hundred years if I'm overly optimistic, to be on the same league as the US, China and other members of the security council.

It is faced with ethnic tension, though nothing bad enough to tear it apart yet. It also has crippling levels of corruption, which completely undermines any work of the government, and is probably the largest single problem.

[Cuāuhtemōc]

None of them really.

[Grouchio]

So how should Nigeria get rid of it's corruption? When should a POD occur so that it modernizes sooner? Perhaps make this an alternate timeline scenario about Nigeria?

[Thande]

Either people who ask this kind of thread question are daft (and there are a lot of them) or they mean something different by superpower. If he means a West African country reaching a similar sort of world power status as the BRIC countries, or the UK/France if you push it, that's a bit more sensible question.

[Grouchio]

Originally Posted by Thande

Either people who ask this kind of thread question are daft (and there are a lot of them) or they mean something different by superpower. If he means a West African country reaching a similar sort of world power status as the BRIC countries, or the UK/France if you push it, that's a bit more sensible question.

Yes, I mean that instead.

[The Oncoming Storm]

Ghana is a country that was tipped to make big progress post independence, both it and Malaya achieved independence in 1957, Ghana was judged to have the better prospects as it is a major producer of gold and bauxite, is quite fertile, had by regional standards decent infrastructure, a budget surplus and a well trained civil service. Sadly Nkrumah lost the plot sending Ghana down the typical African route of corruption, coups and dictatorship whereas Malaysia has become one of the World's most dynamic economies.

Ghana has made big progress in the last 20 years and is now a stable, vibrant democracy but that just emphasises how much better it could have been had the post independence period been better run. It wouldn't have been a "superpower" but like Malaysia it could have a standard of living similar to parts of Europe.

[Antiochus]

Originally Posted by Grouchio

So how should Nigeria get rid of it's corruption? When should a POD occur so that it modernizes sooner? Perhaps make this an alternate timeline scenario about Nigeria?

Well I think you have to look at the differences between Africa and East Asia. Specifically look at the Asian Tigers, a group of nations that have developed extremely fast over the last few decades. The example that The Oncoming Storm gave is extremely poingant. Whilst Asian countries went on to become extremely successfully economically, lots of African countries went into almost immediate decline on independence (and thats saying something!)

Only Nigeria has the population and the resources to become a superpower (and yes when I say that I mean more on BRIC level, and I thought this was in the Future History discussion anything more than that was completely impossible in the 20th century) and luckily it looks like some African countries, like Ghana and Rwanda are starting to actually learn from the South East Asian models. Unfortunately I can't go into much more detail on this, as this more or less covers most of my knowledge of 20th century West African history, but hopefully someone with more knowledge on the subject can help out. There should also be lots of studies available on the internet on the relative success and failure of African and Asian countries post-independence.

[Fabius Cunctator]

Many. Just look at some of the other timelines, altering who one a couple of wars involving significant territorial changes, who took power and ruled effectively, and which economic/governance policies were instituted effectively. 100 years is a long time. I think that those who say not even a united west africa could do so are underestimating the region and the roll of time. Would it require major reforms to make a West African nation a superpower within 100 years? Probably, yes.
Look where China was 40 years ago.

Here's a list with a potential source of candidates to argue about, by an online list of largest african countries, with a few i looked up or remembered were not likely near west region, not all were looked up or remembered:

Country Sq Km Sq Miles

x x Sudan 2,505,813 967,500

2 Algeria 2,381,741 919,595

x x DR Congo 2,344,858 905,355

4 Libya 1,759,540 679,360

5 Chad 1,284,000 496,000

6 Niger 1,267,000 489,000

7 Angola 1,246,700 481,400

8 Mali 1,240,192 478,841

I think though that DR Congo would most likely not qualify for being too far from what most of us would consider West Africa.


Next here are populations:
Nigeria 135,031,164
X Ethiopia 83,700,450
X Egypt 80,335,036
X Congo-Kinshasa 65,751,512
X South Africa 43,997,828
x Tanzania 39,384,223
x Sudan 39,379,358
x Kenya 36,913,721
9 Morocco 33,757,175
10 Algeria 33,333,216
I x'ed out the ones that are not north african based.

Next here are economies:

rank flag name nominal gdp in billions 08 / 09 / 10
X South Africa 275.596 283.977 357.259 X Egypt 162.435 188.608 218.466
3 Nigeria 207.116 168.846 216.803
4 Algeria 170.228 139.763 160.270
5 Morocco 88.879 91.374 103.482
6 Angola 84.178 75.508 85.312
7 Libya 88.888 60.239 74.232
8 Sudan 58.028 55.802 68.441
9 Tunisia 44.878 43.523 44.290
x Kenya 30.031 29.394 32.163
x'ed some of these as out of region


Some regions to become superpowers may need the old fashioned alternate timeline treatment, meaning geographic gains and leadership towards reforms.

Candidates that keep reappearing include Nigeria, Morocco, and Algeria. Nigeria has a clear advantage on key issues of population and economy in Original Timeline, so Alegeria and Morocco may be an either/or through consolidation to outpace Nigeria. This is if they are even included as West African (northern part) versus North African.

[Laqueesha]

Nigeria in 150 years.

[Henriksson]

Originally Posted by Grouchio

Yes, I mean that instead.

You'd need some sort of help from other world powers in a post-1900 PoD. I suspect it may be possible, but it would be bloody difficult.

[Alex Richards]

Potentially a reformed French West Africa which largely sticks together might work, but would be tough.

Nigeria has the potential definately.

I'd say better post-Colonial policies could definately mean better standards of living even if political power remains low.

[wolf_brother]

Originally Posted by Laqueesha

Nigeria in 150 years.

She'll have a *communist uprising long before then.

To the OP if Mali had managed to keep Senegal in its federation it'd have had a chance of being at least a BRIC-level rising power.

[El Danoo]

Nigerian oil reserves last longer than anywhere else. While the rest of the world descends into post-oil chaos, Nigeria invades its neighbouring countries. As they do they 'commandeer' their neighbours military arsenals and recruit locals to help continue their campaign. To the west, Nigerian forces reach Sierra Leone while to the south, Nigerian forces reach the border of Angola, while additional Nigerian forces are drawn into a guerilla conflict in what was the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Nigerian Empire becomes a 'modern' superpower but since they're are the only power left in the world, it's a given.

Timeline: +100 years in the future.

Was that what you were looking for?

[Henriksson]

Originally Posted by El Danoo

Nigerian oil reserves last longer than anywhere else. While the rest of the world descends into post-oil chaos, Nigeria invades its neighbouring countries. As they do they 'commandeer' their neighbours military arsenals and recruit locals to help continue their campaign. To the west, Nigerian forces reach Sierra Leone while to the south, Nigerian forces reach the border of Angola, while additional Nigerian forces are drawn into a guerilla conflict in what was the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Nigerian Empire becomes a 'modern' superpower but since they're are the only power left in the world, it's a given.

Timeline: +100 years in the future.

Was that what you were looking for?

http://peakoil.com/consumption/viole...petrol-prices/ (note the date)

[yourworstnightmare]

Nigeria, but they have serious issues. So not even they are very likely.

[CanKiwi]

It would sure take Peshawar Lancers style PoD to achieve this one. Worked there for a while so its personal for me. It would take a complete cultural change which is almost impossible to achieve.

The Asian Tigers were far far behind Africa in the 1950s, all you have to do is look at Nigeria in the early 1950s to see the enormous potential that has been firittered away in the last 50 years. It would be hard to get Nigeria to where it was 50 years ago in the next 50 years without a major and complete cultural shift and that is not going to happen. The Islamic movements in the north like Boko Haram make this even less likely - Nigeria is more likely to implode and split in two (or three) rather than make it as a working state.

And Nigeria is the only country with the size to potentially achieve what you are looking for.

[Alayta]

Originally Posted by Thande

Either people who ask this kind of thread question are daft (and there are a lot of them) or they mean something different by superpower. If he means a West African country reaching a similar sort of world power status as the BRIC countries, or the UK/France if you push it, that's a bit more sensible question.

A different kind of superpower? Like Spiderman?
If some country gets bitten by a spider or drinks some mystirious liquid or comes into a radioactive cloud......wait!!! Japan! It might have developed some powers that it has to discover yet!
What might the extra-ability of Japan be?