Alternate Electoral Maps

[ColeMercury]

...and this is the 1992 map:

[Thande]

Very good work. Tends to show the US is less polarised on a state level than we think (though of course 1992 was a rather unusual year what with the big third party campaign).

[ColeMercury]

I wanted to see how big the landslide would be if it was done with proportional EVs. Map will not be up today. Probably tomorrow.

1984 Presidential Election

RESULTS:
Ronald Reagan / George Bush (Republican) -- 325 EVs
Walter Mondale / Geraldine Ferraro (Democratic) -- 213 EVs

Results by state:
Alabama: 6 Republican, 3 Democrat
Alaska: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
Arizona: 5 Republican, 2 Democrat
Arkansas: 4 Republican, 2 Democrat
California: 27 Republican, 20 Democrat
Colorado: 5 Republican, 3 Democrat
Connecticut: 5 Republican, 3 Democrat
Delaware: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
District of Columbia: 3 Democrat
Florida: 14 Republican, 7 Democrat
Georgia: 7 Republican, 5 Democrat
Hawaii: 2 Republican, 2 Democrat
Idaho: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
Illinois: 14 Republican, 10 Democrat
Indiana: 8 Republican, 4 Democrat
Iowa: 4 Republican, 4 Democrat
Kansas: 5 Republican, 2 Democrat
Kentucky: 6 Republican, 3 Democrat
Louisiana: 6 Republican, 4 Democrat
Maine: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
Maryland: 5 Republican, 5 Democrat
Massachusetts: 7 Republican, 6 Democrat
Michigan: 12 Republican, 8 Democrat
Minnesota: 5 Democrat, 5 Republican
Mississippi: 4 Republican, 3 Democrat
Missouri: 7 Republican, 4 Democrat
Montana: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
Nebraska: 4 Republican, 1 Democrat
Nevada: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
New Hampshire: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
New Jersey: 10 Republican, 6 Democrat
New Mexico: 3 Republican, 2 Democrat
New York: 19 Republican, 17 Democrat
North Carolina: 8 Republican, 5 Democrat
North Dakota: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
Ohio: 14 Republican, 9 Democrat
Oklahoma: 6 Republican, 2 Democrat
Oregon: 4 Republican, 3 Democrat
Pennsylvania: 13 Republican, 12 Democrat
Rhode Island: 2 Republican, 2 Democrat
South Carolina: 5 Republican, 3 Democrat
South Dakota: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
Tennessee: 6 Republican, 5 Democrat
Texas: 19 Republican, 10 Democrat
Utah: 4 Republican, 1 Democrat
Vermont: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
Virginia: 8 Republican, 4 Democrat
Washington: 6 Republican, 4 Democrat
West Virginia: 3 Republican, 3 Democrat
Wisconsin: 6 Republican, 5 Democrat
Wyoming: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat

[Æsir]

That makes me curious; would John Anderson get any EVs in 1980 under this system?

[Tim Thomason]

Originally Posted by Æsir

That makes me curious; would John Anderson get any EVs in 1980 under this system?

Yeah, definitely. For example, in California, Anderson received 8.67% of the vote, which would give him around 4 electoral votes in that state alone. That's probably the biggest amount per state.

[Plumber]

The collapse of Bear Sterns and the subsequent fall of Lehman Brothers in May 2008 sent the economy into a death spiral. John McCain, declaring that the "fundamentals of our economy are sound," suspended his campaign to vote for bailouts of the banking and auto industry. A desperate McCain interviews Sarah Palin for the VP slot, only to realize that she would be a disaster. At the Republican convention, he informs Palin that Joe Lieberman will be his Vice-Presidential choice. All hell breaks lose, and Palin announces she has been stabbed in the back. A 'Draft Palin' movement leads to a floor fight where Lieberman is confirmed as Vice President on the fourth ballot. Instead of a post-convention bounce, the Republicans get a post-convention collapse. To enraged conservatives, McCain declares "I never considered myself a maverick. I consider myself a person who serves the people of America to the best of his abilities." In November 2008, a George W. Bush with a 10% approval rating proudly announces that "only 652,000 jobs were lost this past month."


Barack Obama / Kathleen Sebelius (Democratic) -- 420 EVs
John McCain / Joe Lieberman (Republican) -- 188 EVs

[Archangel Michael]

You know, if a candidate wins both NE-01 and NE-02, they're probably going to win the entire state.

[ColeMercury]

Originally Posted by Archangel Michael

You know, if a candidate wins both NE-01 and NE-02, they're probably going to win the entire state.

Not necessarily. Democratic wins in NE-01 and NE-02 are likely to be slim, and if the Republican gets NE-03 in landslide then they carry the state.

Originally Posted by Plumber

Barack Obama / Kathleen Sebelius (Democratic) -- 420 EVs
John McCain / Sarah Palin (Republican) -- 188 EVs

I'd suggest switching the colours here, since it's the other way around on the map.

[Tim Thomason]

Originally Posted by Archangel Michael

You know, if a candidate wins both NE-01 and NE-02, they're probably going to win the entire state.

It's possible a faithless elector is involved.

And, more seriously, if the count is close in some districts while way off in others, it could easily result in a one-district but still statewide win.

For example, out of a sample of 21 voters in three groups (A - 7, B - 7, C - 7):
* A - 4 voters vote Democrat, 3 Republican. Democrat wins 1 EV.
* B - 4 voters vote Democrat, 3 Republican. Democrat wins 1 EV.
* C - 5 voters vote Republican, 2 Democrat. Republican wins 1 EV.
* Total - 11 voters vote Republican, 10 Democrat. Republican wins 2 EV.

[Tim Thomason]

Originally Posted by Plumber

Barack Obama / Kathleen Sebelius (Democratic) -- 420 EVs
John McCain / Sarah Palin (Republican) -- 188 EVs

I suggest renaming "Sarah Palin" to "Joe Lieberman" if I follow your text paragraph correctly. Unless Lieberman was removed from the ballot by Election Day.

[Archangel Michael]

Originally Posted by ColeMercury

Not necessarily. Democratic wins in NE-01 and NE-02 are likely to be slim, and if the Republican gets NE-03 in landslide then they carry the state.

Assuming a five point swing to Obama in NE-01 (the bare minimum needed to win there) and a similar swing in NE-02, then McCain still only needs 60% in NE-03 to win the state. But there are much larger swings in neighboring states. An eight point swing in both NE-01 and NE-03 (which seems in line with other states) would give Obama a five thousand point victory across the state.

Tight voting in NE-01 and NE-02 gives McCain Nebraska. But I don't think things would be that tight given the rest of the map. For Kansas, West Virginia and the Dakotas to go Democratic, I'd think Obama would have a larger margin of victory. Plus you have to take voter turnout into account. In a situation like this, I could see voter turnout in NE-03 being lower than in NE-01 and -02.

[ColeMercury]

Originally Posted by Æsir

That makes me curious; would John Anderson get any EVs in 1980 under this system?

I consider that a challenge!

So, yeah, I did the 1980 numbers as well. I think I'll make both maps later today.

(In Alabama the vote for "Other" exceeds the vote for Anderson, but I'm going to assume that the "Other" vote was split between several candidates and so Anderson still came third as there's no further information.)

1980 Presidential Election

RESULTS:
Ronald Reagan / George Bush (Republican) -- 290 EVs
Jimmy Carter / Walter Mondale (Democratic) -- 228 EVs
John B Anderson / Patrick Lucey (Independent) -- 20 EVs

Results by state:
Alabama: 4 Republican, 4 Democrat, 1 Independent
Alaska: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
Arizona: 4 Republican, 2 Democrat
Arkansas: 3 Republican, 3 Democrat
California: 24 Republican, 17 Democrat, 4 Independent
Colorado: 4 Republican, 2 Democrat, 1 Independent
Connecticut: 4 Republican, 3 Democrat, 1 Independent
Delaware: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
District of Columbia: 3 Democrat
Florida: 10 Republican, 7 Democrat
Georgia: 7 Democrat, 5 Republican
Hawaii: 2 Democrat, 2 Republican
Idaho: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
Illinois: 13 Republican, 11 Democrat, 2 Independent
Indiana: 8 Republican, 5 Democrat
Iowa: 5 Republican, 3 Democrat
Kansas: 5 Republican, 2 Democrat
Kentucky: 5 Republican, 4 Democrat
Louisiana: 5 Republican, 5 Democrat
Maine: 2 Republican, 2 Democrat
Maryland: 5 Democrat, 5 Republican
Massachusetts: 6 Republican, 6 Democrat, 2 Independent
Michigan: 11 Republican, 9 Democrat, 1 Independent
Minnesota: 5 Democrat, 4 Republican, 1 Independent
Mississippi: 4 Republican, 3 Democrat
Missouri: 6 Republican, 6 Democrat
Montana: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
Nebraska: 4 Republican, 1 Democrat
Nevada: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
New Hampshire: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
New Jersey: 9 Republican, 7 Democrat, 1 Independent
New Mexico: 2 Republican, 2 Democrat
New York: 20 Republican, 18 Democrat, 3 Independent
North Carolina: 7 Republican, 6 Democrat
North Dakota: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
Ohio: 13 Republican, 11 Democrat, 1 Independent
Oklahoma: 5 Republican, 3 Democrat
Oregon: 3 Republican, 3 Democrat
Pennsylvania: 14 Republican, 12 Democrat, 1 Independent
Rhode Island: 2 Democrat, 2 Republican
South Carolina: 4 Republican, 4 Democrat
South Dakota: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
Tennessee: 5 Republican, 5 Democrat
Texas: 15 Republican, 11 Democrat
Utah: 3 Republican, 1 Democrat
Vermont: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
Virginia: 7 Republican, 5 Democrat
Washington: 5 Republican, 3 Democrat, 1 Independent
West Virginia: 3 Democrat, 3 Republican
Wisconsin: 6 Republican, 5 Democrat
Wyoming: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat

[Dean501]

From a TL I've always wanted to do...

2000

[/IMG]

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/ General Colin Powell (R-NY): 271 EV
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)/ Secretary Bill Richardson (D-NM): 267 EV

2004



President John McCain (R-AZ)/ Vice-President Colin Powell (R-NY): 283 EV
Governor Howard Dean (D-VT)/ General Wesley Clark (D-AR): 255 EV

2008



Vice President Colin Powell (R-NY)/ Secretary Condoleeza Rice (R-MS): 473 EV
Governor Mark Warner (D-VA)/ Governor Russ Feingold (D-WI): 65 EV

2012



Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/ Senator Barack Obama (D-IL): 306 EV
Vice President Condoleeza Rice (R-MS)/ Jeb Bush (R-FL): 232 EV

[ColeMercury]

1984 proportional-EVs map from this post.

Just to repeat the results:
Ronald Reagan / George Bush (Republican) -- 325 EVs
Walter Mondale / Geraldine Ferraro (Democratic) -- 213 EVs

[ColeMercury]

1980 proportional-EVs map from this post.

Anderson is represented by shades of green. Here are the overall results again:
Ronald Reagan / George Bush (Republican) -- 290 EVs
Jimmy Carter / Walter Mondale (Democratic) -- 228 EVs
John B Anderson / Patrick Lucey (Independent) -- 20 EVs

[Thande]

Originally Posted by ColeMercury

(In Alabama the vote for "Other" exceeds the vote for Anderson, but I'm going to assume that the "Other" vote was split between several candidates and so Anderson still came third as there's no further information.)

The full details can be found here. Your guess was right--Anderson came third, the other two named 'Other' candidates behind him being the Alabama Conservative Party (which I've never heard of) and the Libertarians.

And well done on the data and maps!

[Ariosto]

1908 Presidential Election - A Tenuous Hold to Power[continuation of the series]



Senator William J Bryan (L-NE) / Governor Robert M Lafollette (R-WS) - 263 Electoral
Vice President Joseph B Foraker (R-OH) / Governor L M Shaw (R-IA) - 220 Electoral


[When I have the time and state of mind, Histography will come]

[vultan]

Originally Posted by Thande

The full details can be found here. Your guess was right--Anderson came third, the other two named 'Other' candidates behind him being the Alabama Conservative Party (which I've never heard of) and the Libertarians.

And well done on the data and maps!

The Alabama Conservative Party seems to have been a state affiliate of the American Independent Party, as they nominated that ticket for President (former Congressman John Rarick and Eileen Shearer).

[Ariosto]

Originally Posted by vultan

The Alabama Conservative Party seems to have been a state affiliate of the American Independent Party, as they nominated that ticket for President (former Congressman John Rarick and Eileen Shearer).

Pretty much. Just like the Courage Party of New York in '68.

[Jay Cruger]

1968 Presidential Election

Jacob K. Javits/ George W. Romney 344
Hubert H. Humphrey/ Edmund S. Muskie 149
George C. Wallace/ Curtis E. LeMay 45