Fewest NATO nations possible

[Sydneyinspace]

Fewest NATO nations possible that includes France and West Germany during the Cold War?

I'm thinking Greece and Finland go Red, East Germany larger, cuts off Denmark, and Iceland, Portugal, and Luxembourg go neutral. With Sweden, Finland, and Denmark not in NATO Norway stays neutral as well. Turkey would still be allied to the U.S. but it would be similar to Australia or Japan.

So with only eight countries: USA, Canada, UK, France, West Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium, and Holland. Are there many differences during the Cold War? Could there be fewer? I can't really see countries like Italy, Spain, or Holland leaving NATO.

[FlyingDutchman]

Plenty of possibilities for Italy to go communist too, from the elections of 1948 onwards untill far into the '80s. A communist Italy would quit NATO in a heartbeat.

France could easily be lost to NATO too, either because of reasons as IOTL or also by some sort of communist takeover.

The Benelux I can't see going red either.

[MerryPrankster]

IBC defended the revisionist school of the Cold War by saying that if the Soviets were truly balls-to-the-wall expansionist, they could have taken Denmark at the end of WWII*.

Let's say that Stalin decides to snatch that prize, to push the Soviet defensive zone wider or simply aggrandize Soviet power. This means control of the mouth of the Baltic and a much greater ability to threaten Hamburg and the North Sea.

Of course, it's going to upset the West rather much.

*At least that's what I think he said--it's been awhile. OTL the Soviets did take/liberate Bornholm, but actually getting to Denmark proper would require a longer line of march across northern Germany or island hopping.

[Sydneyinspace]

I don't know about a communist Italy without Soviet troops occupying them but maybe a united left can win? A big tent party filled with socialists and communists could definitely choose to stay out of NATO. With an "economic miracle" after WWII like in Germany and Japan could easily see that party stay in power. I don't know too much about Italian history but I remember reading about there being a united left or something similar and then it split so I'm thinking about a time line where Italy stays out of NATO after the 1948 elections until the big tent left party splits, the conservatives take over and enters NATO maybe during the 70's. Would be very interesting.

[freivolk]

Spain didn´t join NATO till 1982, but it naturally was under Franco an inoffical NATO-Allie. Still it seems possible, that Spain may become left-neutralist after Francos death. In 1974/75 there was the fear, that Portugal may become communist and leave NATO. Maybe neighbored by a a communist Portugal, the neutralist trend in Spain is stronger in 1975 and it never joins NATO. So France, W.-Germany, Benelux, USA and Canada seem to be the the smallest possible NATO.

[Sir]

Surely it's possible to kill NATO altogether?

[Oddball]

Originally Posted by Sydneyinspace

... With Sweden, Finland, and Denmark not in NATO Norway stays neutral as well.

Bollocks!

Norway after OTL ww2 was desperate to join an alliance. The neutrality project had failed, and all political shades, except the communist, had a consensus about this. When talks about NATO came up in '48-'49, Norway backed out of the talks about a Scandinavian Defence Union before Denmark did.

In addition Norway was very much needed in NATO to make the Atlantic reinforcement route atleast teoretical defendable.

You need an neutral Norway during ww2 or a successful communist coup in 1945 to not have Norway join NATO. Sorry...

PS! A communist Sweden in 1948 would change the subject to more uncertain, but I still think Norway would have joined.

[Sydneyinspace]

But why would a country of a little over three million not just want to take a Swedish or Irish route? I know little of Norwegian history so tell me what was the mood right after WWII? Were Norwegians really that anti-soviet? Couldn't they hate the idea of a conflict with them more?

[Oddball]

Originally Posted by Sydneyinspace

But why would a country of a little over three million not just want to take a Swedish or Irish route? I know little of Norwegian history so tell me what was the mood right after WWII? Were Norwegians really that anti-soviet? Couldn't they hate the idea of a conflict with them more?

He, not so much anti-soviet, no. Norway probably ejoyed and still do one of the best relations with Soviet/Russia.

But as I said, the Neutrality project that keept us out of WW1 just had failed misserably, so the consencus was a alliance. IMO they correctly deducted that in case of a new major war in Europe, standing outside the alliance system was not possible. War would engulf us no matter...