Early 'Meiji' Restoration?

DrakeRlugia · Jan 11, 2012

Is it possible for an earlier Meiji Restoration to occur in Japan? When I say Meiji, I do not mean a Japan which modernizes or westernizes. But rather, is it possible in the early modern period for the Emperor to reassert his authority over the feuding bakufu during the warring states period? I know the Imperial Court was quite impoverished, especially during the 16th and 17th centuries and was often dominated by whatever warlord tended to control the region of Edo (see: Nobunaga and his use of the Emperor to mediate the conflicts). Is there any chance of the Emperor being able to reassert himself?

It certainly won't be a Meiji in that a powerful, centralized, estate is formed. I'm certain any Meiji in the 16th or 17th century would be highly reliant upon the warrior classes and we'd probably see a relatively decentralized government. I'm just curious if there is any way the Imperial party could come out on top. I know pro-Imperialists existed in the Edo period, even before Perry came along, and there were movements in the 14th and 15th centuries that advocated direct rule by the Emperor.

Is it possible, or is the feuding states period bound to see Japan united by a war lord who will mostly certainly take the title of Shogun and keep the Emperor in an iron cage? If the Imperialists can assert himself, what kind of policies will they persue? Most important would be foreign policies towards the Portuguese and other foreigners, and the domestic (and growing) Christian movement?

Fabilius · Jan 11, 2012

There are a myriad´s of TL´s dealing with a Japan opening up in the 16th/17th century. Most of them end up wanking Japan. I´d prefer to see a TL where Japan opening up leads to a healthy competition in Asia, with Korea and China entering the race at some point... but yeah to answer question:

Yes, it´s possible for an earlier Meiji.

If you want it to look more like the actual Meiji restoration you could let some european power, (Britain or even Russia comes to mind) humiliate Japan few decades before US does. In that case the inbuilt tensions of the Edo period will start eroding the system, but there is no guarantee it´d end up like a Meiji.

It could be more like sengoku actually with a civil war between various daimyos going on for a long time, and no central government emerging. That is a possibility.

But most go for the earlier Meiji ending up with a more succesful Japan. And I´m fine with that, I like japanese culture so I don´t mind a Japanwank. But it´s not automatic.

Now, whether the emperor can reassert himself. I don´t think so, those days are long gone, as you say the imperial court is impoverished. But maybe there is some way.

You could go further back. There were emperors that made attempts right before the beginning of Kamakura. And then there is emperor Go-Daigo.

Actually I´d like to see a TL where the emperor makes a comeback and becomes an actual king again. And then how that state deals with Europeans coming in the 15th/16th century.

Draco · Jan 11, 2012

If your main aim is to have the Emperor wield any actual power earlier you could have Emperor Go-Daigo not be quite so incompetent after the Kenmu Restoration. However that’s quite a bit earlier than the time-frame you’ve mentioned. The problem with a later POD is that anyone who gets enough power to change the status quo is far more likely to seize power for themselves rather than hand any real power to the Emperor.

Fabilius · Jan 11, 2012

Draco said:
If your main aim is to have the Emperor wield any actual power earlier you could have Emperor Go-Daigo not be quite so incompetent after the Kenmu Restoration. However that’s quite a bit earlier than the time-frame you’ve mentioned. The problem with a later POD is that anyone who gets enough power to change the status quo is far more likely to seize power for themselves rather than hand any real power to the Emperor.

That´s why we need a series of really clever emperors. Not just Go-Daigo handling things well, but also his successors. It´s a long term, bit uphill battle.

You could have the emperor gain more power, share it with a shogun of sorts, and then have a curious and clever emperor in possession of the territory at around say... Nagoya, at the time Europeans show up.

DrakeRlugia · Jan 11, 2012

Yes, the Kemmu Restoration came to mind.

I had the idea of a longer and much more indecisive Sengoku. No men such as Nobunaga to unite the island, if just briefly. The Ashikaga Shogunate continues to exist in it's very moribund form, the a series of clever Emperors begin the task of trying to regain some of their lost powers, wooing over the southern Daimyo who have contacts with the Portuguese, and taking great interest in gunpowder weaponry. It'd be a few generations, but ultimately we'd see an Imperial Restoration, replacing the military oligarchy with a more civilian one that is dominated by the nobility and the land owners. The Samurai class would continue to exist of course, and would play a vital role. I was also toying with the idea of the Emperors taking a very large interest in gunpowder weaponry and armies, creating a sort of caste of warriors who use muskets. I know the weapon was widespread, but fell into disuse after Sekigahara and guns were ultimately abandoned. Gun technology it's self was severely retarded during the Edo period due to the policies of the Shogunate.

Draco · Jan 11, 2012

The problem with having a more indecisive and drawn out Sengoku is that I think its more likely that Japan ends up like the Holy Roman Empire a state in name only. The Chōsokabe and Shimazu will almost certainly become de facto independent given enough time.

DrakeRlugia · Jan 11, 2012

Draco said:
The problem with having a more indecisive and drawn out Sengoku is that I think its more likely that Japan ends up like the Holy Roman Empire a state in name only. The Chōsokabe and Shimazu will almost certainly become de facto independent given enough time.

Then possibly have a strongman like Tokugawa or Nobunaga unite the island, but not quite as intelligent? Someone whose abilities could be manipulated by an especially cunning Emperor?

I want this Japan to emerge united. It doesn't have to be uber centralized, but I want the Emperor to wield some form of authority. It doesn't have to be an automatic process: if it has some set backs, or takes a few decades, that's okay too.

Draco · Jan 11, 2012

Thinking it over a possible starting point might be to have Tokugawa Ieyasu die an early death before he can consolidate his position leaving Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s son Hideyori as his father’s successor. Then once the infighting between the Council of Reagents starts have it arranged for the underage Hideyori to be put in the care of the Emperor as a compromise which wouldn’t be completely implausible seeing as quite a few Toyotomi loyalists didn’t care for Ishida Mitsunari and seeing as the Emperor at this time was pretty powerless he might seem like a safe choice.

tonsofun · Jan 11, 2012

The only way for Japan to modernize much earlier is for Japan to feel the need to modernize much earlier. The main reason Japan clsoed it self off was because they felt they could take on anyone who attacks them. During the 16th and 17th centuries they mostly likely could defeat any foriegn power who attacks them. Hency why I believe the Americans didn't attack them until the mid 19th century.

Lord Grattan · Jan 11, 2012

tonsofun said:
The only way for Japan to modernize much earlier is for Japan to feel the need to modernize much earlier. The main reason Japan clsoed it self off was because they felt they could take on anyone who attacks them. During the 16th and 17th centuries they mostly likely could defeat any foriegn power who attacks them. Hency why I believe the Americans didn't attack them until the mid 19th century.

Attacked? More like pushed open (granted - assertively) the door. Regardless, DrakeRlugia was asking about imperial power/assertiveness, not westernization and modernization.

Nice strawman BTW.

DrakeRlugia · Jan 11, 2012

Draco said:
Thinking it over a possible starting point might be to have Tokugawa Ieyasu die an early death before he can consolidate his position leaving Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s son Hideyori as his father’s successor. Then once the infighting between the Council of Reagents starts have it arranged for the underage Hideyori to be put in the care of the Emperor as a compromise which wouldn’t be completely implausible seeing as quite a few Toyotomi loyalists didn’t care for Ishida Mitsunari and seeing as the Emperor at this time was pretty powerless he might seem like a safe choice.

Sounds like a good jumping off point. I create a similar scenario or something like that. We just need someone strong enough to unify Japan but fail to consolidate themselves. A powerless and caged Emperor would make a very good caretaker for a young Shogun. Ideally We could see a full blown Imperial Restoration by the 1620s or 30s. Like I said, it doesn't have to be an immediate process: it can be drawn out and even have set backs if necessary.

DrakeRlugia · Jan 11, 2012

tonsofun said:
The only way for Japan to modernize much earlier is for Japan to feel the need to modernize much earlier. The main reason Japan clsoed it self off was because they felt they could take on anyone who attacks them. During the 16th and 17th centuries they mostly likely could defeat any foriegn power who attacks them. Hency why I believe the Americans didn't attack them until the mid 19th century.

Modernization isn't what I was talking about. I was talking about a restoration of Imperial power. The two don't necessarily go hand in hand.

Antipater · Jan 11, 2012

DrakeRlugia said:
I had the idea of a longer and much more indecisive Sengoku. No men such as Nobunaga to unite the island, if just briefly. The Ashikaga Shogunate continues to exist in it's very moribund form, the a series of clever Emperors begin the task of trying to regain some of their lost powers, wooing over the southern Daimyo who have contacts with the Portuguese, and taking great interest in gunpowder weaponry. It'd be a few generations, but ultimately we'd see an Imperial Restoration, replacing the military oligarchy with a more civilian one that is dominated by the nobility and the land owners.

This might very well be doable. The interesting thing about the Japanese Emperors was the fact that succession was not purely based upon Primogeniture. Thus, there was actually a good deal of flexibility when it came to Imperial Succession. There was also the ever-present possibility of "retirement" from the throne, voluntary or not. So the POD you need does not necessarily have to involve figures that actually served as Emperor IOTL, making the task a bit easier. I am sure that, in every generation there was at least one ambitious nephew seeking to imitate the Chinese Emperor.

A prolonged Senguku Jindai that sees the continuation of the moribund Ashikaga Shogunate could set the stage for an eventual Imperial Restoration, as the longer the Shogun remains a tool of whatever Daimyo controls Kyoto, the lesser the office's credibility. However, given Japan's history it could just as easily happen that the new "arrangement" would become institutionalized.

After the Gempei war, the first Shogun Minamoto no Yoritomo was only nominally succeeded by his son in 1199. Real power remained in the hand of the Shikken, or "Shogunal Regent" for the next 120 years. Especially if a Daimyo held Kyoto who lacked the proper pedigree to claim the title of Shogun himself, it might have been more convenient for him to take the less prestigious, but no less powerful role of Shikken.

Another issue would be the possibility of the Emperor cooperating in any way with the Portuguese, or nanban as they were known as the time. It is my understanding Christians were held in very low esteem by the older nobility at the time, presumably the Emperor included. I don't think the Emperor could be seen to be interacting with the "Southern Barbarians" without undermining his authority, which was entirely based upon the belief that he was a direct descendant of the Sun God. For these reasons I think the Emperor could only deal with foreigners indirectly, keeping them at arm's length.

An Imperial Restoration is probably achievable, and a weak shogun is a necessary condition for it. However, that is just one of many obstacles to be overcome, and I do not think that interaction with the West and the acquisition of gunpowder weapons is a silver bullet for all of them.

DrakeRlugia · Jan 12, 2012

Antipater said:
This might very well be doable. The interesting thing about the Japanese Emperors was the fact that succession was not purely based upon Primogeniture. Thus, there was actually a good deal of flexibility when it came to Imperial Succession. There was also the ever-present possibility of "retirement" from the throne, voluntary or not. So the POD you need does not necessarily have to involve figures that actually served as Emperor IOTL, making the task a bit easier. I am sure that, in every generation there was at least one ambitious nephew seeking to imitate the Chinese Emperor.

A prolonged Senguku Jindai that sees the continuation of the moribund Ashikaga Shogunate could set the stage for an eventual Imperial Restoration, as the longer the Shogun remains a tool of whatever Daimyo controls Kyoto, the lesser the office's credibility. However, given Japan's history it could just as easily happen that the new "arrangement" would become institutionalized.

After the Gempei war, the first Shogun Minamoto no Yoritomo was only nominally succeeded by his son in 1199. Real power remained in the hand of the Shikken, or "Shogunal Regent" for the next 120 years. Especially if a Daimyo held Kyoto who lacked the proper pedigree to claim the title of Shogun himself, it might have been more convenient for him to take the less prestigious, but no less powerful role of Shikken.

Another issue would be the possibility of the Emperor cooperating in any way with the Portuguese, or nanban as they were known as the time. It is my understanding Christians were held in very low esteem by the older nobility at the time, presumably the Emperor included. I don't think the Emperor could be seen to be interacting with the "Southern Barbarians" without undermining his authority, which was entirely based upon the belief that he was a direct descendant of the Sun God. For these reasons I think the Emperor could only deal with foreigners indirectly, keeping them at arm's length.

An Imperial Restoration is probably achievable, and a weak shogun is a necessary condition for it. However, that is just one of many obstacles to be overcome, and I do not think that interaction with the West and the acquisition of gunpowder weapons is a silver bullet for all of them.

Ah yes, I don't think gunpowder weaponry would solve everything, especially considering it'd become widely available to throughout Japan and it'd be available to more than just the Emperor. It'd provide an edge, of course, but I don't think it'd fix everything of course.

Lots of good and interesting ideas in this thread. Have some stuff to think over.

Blackfox5 · Jan 12, 2012

Highly unlikely.

It's important to note that the Meiji Restoration did not actually restore any power to the Emperor who remained a figurehead. Instead, "restoring" the emperor was simply the pretext for modernizing nobles to remove the Shogunate which monopolized political power.

The only way the Emperor can wield power is he become militarily powerful enough to assert his authority over the daimyos. At most, he becomes one warlord out of many, with no more chance of winning than any other warlord. He has the added prestige of being emperor, but that is balanced by making himself and the imperial line a target. A far more likely occurence in this case is what happened ITOL - the imperial family becomes hostage to a much more powerful and cunning military family - except that certain individuals are killed for being upstart threats.

The Ubbergeek · Jan 13, 2012

Hideyoshi may have done if he lived longer, focused on winning and having solid bases on Japan and such. He was not a samurai originally, had ties with merchants and Osaka, so he, unlike Tokugawa, saw more the real world outside Japan in those days - maybe.

DrakeRlugia · Jan 14, 2012

Blackfox5 said:
Highly unlikely.

It's important to note that the Meiji Restoration did not actually restore any power to the Emperor who remained a figurehead. Instead, "restoring" the emperor was simply the pretext for modernizing nobles to remove the Shogunate which monopolized political power.

The only way the Emperor can wield power is he become militarily powerful enough to assert his authority over the daimyos. At most, he becomes one warlord out of many, with no more chance of winning than any other warlord. He has the added prestige of being emperor, but that is balanced by making himself and the imperial line a target. A far more likely occurence in this case is what happened ITOL - the imperial family becomes hostage to a much more powerful and cunning military family - except that certain individuals are killed for being upstart threats.

This is true vis a vis the Meiji Restoration, especially given the Meiji Oligarchs believed that the Emperor should assume his traditional role in spiritual manners while his ministers handled governmental matters. But it wasn't as if the Emperor was always a powerless figure, as the Kemmu Restoration comes to mind. Any restoration not connected to modernization and westernization would likely be connected to just that - the restoration of Imperial authority. It'd be unlikely yes, in the time frame I've given, but not impossible.

DrakeRlugia · Jan 14, 2012

The Ubbergeek said:
Hideyoshi may have done if he lived longer, focused on winning and having solid bases on Japan and such. He was not a samurai originally, had ties with merchants and Osaka, so he, unlike Tokugawa, saw more the real world outside Japan in those days - maybe.

I get the feeling that Hideyoshi, had he lived, would've simply been an earlier Tokugawa. He would've certainly centralized power into his own hands, not handed it over the Emperor. Even though he wasn't a Samurai, he leaned on that class for support. IIRC it was he who banned all except Samurai from bearing arms.