Confederate Industrial centers.

Reggie Bartlett

Banned
An idea taken from this thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=226433&page=12

The subject came up about Birmingham/Elyton, Alabama emerging post-war, and how Nashville, Knoxville, Richmond, New Orleans, Atlanta, and possibly Dallas, Houston, Charlotte, Chattanooga and Louisville, and whatever places further west as the CS gains territory could rise to manufacturing prominence in the CSA.

This scenario is the same as the one in the linked thread, it's an 1862 CS victory, that as Snake stated, involves a Super-Perryville event and Lee still scores recognition for the CSA in Maryland. The CSA holds Kentucky, Arizona and Indian territory in TTL, no other border states. Maxamillian is in charge of Mexico, and may be toppled after he sells of Sonora and Chihuahua to the CS in the 1880s.
 
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mowque

Banned
Of course, it'll all be owned by Wall Street anyway. I can't wait for US Steel to buy TCI in this scenario.
 

King Gorilla

mowque said:
Of course, it'll all be owned by Wall Street anyway. I can't wait for US Steel to buy TCI in this scenario.
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Yup. I suspect most southern industrial concerns will be acquired over the course of the fairly frequent gilded age recessions, or in commodity price collapses be it from the boll weevil, downturns in the textile industry, or competition from India, Egypt, Brazil, and/or central Asia. But than again, this wasn't an unusual occurrence for nations with commodity export based economies.
 

Reggie Bartlett

Banned
King Gorilla said:
Yup. I suspect most southern industrial concerns will be acquired over the course of the fairly frequent gilded age recessions, or in commodity price collapses be it from the boll weevil, downturns in the textile industry, or competition from India, Egypt, Brazil, and/or central Asia. But than again, this wasn't an unusual occurrence for nations with commodity export based economies.
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In TTL (which is the same as the other thread) the Boll Weevil is introduced to the traditional CSA several years earlier through the purchase of the states of Sonora and Chihuahua.

So in 1885-1886 or so, cotton from those two states have made their way to the ports of New Orleans and Savannah. With little hidden passengers onboard.

So this emergence of large scale industrialization in places like Richmond, Nashville, Knoxville, Atlanta and Birmingham is occuring with the backdrop of the Weevil infestation.
 
Kome

Kome

mowque said:
Why do you take such large scale industrialization for granted?
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Mowque's got a point. If Boll Weevil is happening right when industrialization starts, its going to grind to a halt since without the money from cotton you wouldnt be able to pay for industrialization.
 

King Gorilla

Reggie Bartlett said:
So in 1885-1886 or so, cotton from those two states have made their way to the ports of New Orleans and Savannah. With little hidden passengers onboard.

So this emergence of large scale industrialization in places like Richmond, Nashville, Knoxville, Atlanta and Birmingham is occuring with the backdrop of the Weevil infestation.
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That's still going to cause a major recession, in all likelihood a depression with a accompanying severe social and political strife. As was the case, with OTL industrial era recessions the result will likely be corporate consolidation. I'd imagine JP Morgan having a field day. The big prizes will probably be ownership of the CSA's railroads, iron and steel plants, sugar refineries, and port facilities/grain elevators.

That being said, there are likely to be several domestic confederate trusts emerging from the chaos (presuming the CSA survives) consolidating corporate control of tobacco, coal/coke, timber, liquor, newspapers, and quite possibly other light/heavy industries as well. These trusts will carry with themselves all of the problem's of OTL's monopoly's however they will be very efficient means of consolidating and to a lesser extent investing capital.

Truth be told, I don't think the confederacy will be heavily industrialized. This doesn't mean it won't have industry, its just that the structural problems with confederate governance and society combined with the relative ease of establishing extraction industries off of traditional land ownership means their is very little incentive for the elites to pursue an economic model which undermines their traditional economic and political power.
 

mowque

Banned
King Gorilla said:
These trusts will carry with themselves all of the problem's of OTL's monopoly's however they will be very efficient means of consolidating and to a lesser extent investing capital.
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Where might the Confederate Stock Market go? Richmond is a natural but New Orleans is a major commodity port...
 

Reggie Bartlett

Banned
Kome said:
Mowque's got a point. If Boll Weevil is happening right when industrialization starts, its going to grind to a halt since without the money from cotton you wouldnt be able to pay for industrialization.
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Industry in Nashville, Louisville, Richmond, Atlanta, New Orleans and to an extent Birmingham has already occured by this point there may have been a few important Planters taking an interest into the phenomenon.

We'll just say the CSA purchases the two Mexican states in 1885, the Boll Weevil doesn't hit most of the CSA until about a year or so later.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
The CSA will have two major industrial centers, Richmond and Nashville. Both are more likely to specialize in the kind of industry the Confederate Army would need, and the need to maintain slavery will necessitate a larger CS peacetime army than was the case in the old USA. The Confederacy will have one great commercial port, New Orleans, which will be to it what New York City is to the USA. It is unlikely in the extreme that the CS ruling class would favor the growth of CS industrial areas at the expense of the planters until they have no choice to do so, whether by putsch or by economic collapse.
 

Reggie Bartlett

Banned
mowque said:
Where might the Confederate Stock Market go? Richmond is a natural but New Orleans is a major commodity port...
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The Confederate stock market, we'll say it's in New Orleans, N.O. would be in better financial shape compared to OTL. Possibly other stock markets might pop up in Richmond, Charleston and Atlanta in the following decades.
 

King Gorilla

mowque said:
Where might the Confederate Stock Market go? Richmond is a natural but New Orleans is a major commodity port...
Click to expand...

It would probably end up being New Orleans. The most likely location would be where the most cotton gets bought and warehoused before being exported. Said location necessarily has to be a transportation hub, and has to have enough commerce in order to justify the creation of a futures market (as most initial confederate companies will primarily be involved in the production and trading of commodities) I think Richmond is too distant from the cotton belt, to engage in said financial transactions.
 

mowque

Banned
King Gorilla said:
That's still going to cause a major recession, in all likelihood a depression with a accompanying severe social and political strife. As was the case, with OTL industrial era recessions the result will likely be corporate consolidation. I'd imagine JP Morgan having a field day. The big prizes will probably be ownership of the CSA's railroads, iron and steel plants, sugar refineries, and port facilities/grain elevators.
Click to expand...

Do you think we'll see UK ownership or will it be investment, like it was in the North?
 

King Gorilla

mowque said:
Do you think we'll see UK ownership or will it be investment, like it was in the North?
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I'm thinking a split. The UK has more capital to invest, but the confederacy is closer to the US's sphere of influence and its investors have better (if not more immediate) information about economic conditions.

The UK will be most interested in keeping the confederacy as an exporter of raw materials and a continued importer of its goods. I'd imagine them trying to create an Argentina'esque situation where their investors have a hand in every part of the confederate cotton industry. Expanding the Argentina idea further, I could see them being a major buyer of Texan cattle.

The North will probably be more corporate minded, at least in the JP Morgan mold. Their investors will try to merge the confederate acquisitions with their existing American operations (granting them a permanent backdoor into the confederate market). Though I hate to be cliche, I think American investors would be more orientated to confederate industrial assets. Rail would be a prime target, as would iron and steel works, coke ovens and chemical plants.
 

Reggie Bartlett

Banned
King Gorilla said:
I'm thinking a split. The UK has more capital to invest, but the confederacy is closer to the US's sphere of influence and its investors have better (if not more immediate) information about economic conditions.

The UK will be most interested in keeping the confederacy as an exporter of raw materials and a continued importer of its goods. I'd imagine them trying to create an Argentina'esque situation where their investors have a hand in every part of the confederate cotton industry. Expanding the Argentina idea further, I could see them being a major buyer of Texan cattle.

The North will probably be more corporate minded, at least in the JP Morgan mold. Their investors will try to merge the confederate acquisitions with their existing American operations (granting them a permanent backdoor into the confederate market). Though I hate to be cliche, I think American investors would be more orientated to confederate industrial assets. Rail would be a prime target, as would iron and steel works, coke ovens and chemical plants.
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So much of the CSA's industry is going to be tied up with home grown Companies, British owners and shareholders and Yankee owners and shareholders? Got it.
 

MAlexMatt

Banned
mowque said:
Of course, it'll all be owned by Wall Street anyway. I can't wait for US Steel to buy TCI in this scenario.
Click to expand...

Nonsense.

This is the middle of the 19th century, they'll be owned by Lombard Street.

:p

No, but seriously, in a scenario with an independent CSA where the planters predominate, they'll have a significant native source of capital to draw on. They'll draw on both Northern and British capital, like the US did IOTL, especially while they're recovering economically from fighting the war, but it'd be a mix, not total ownership.

Here is a fascinating question, though: IOTL there wasn't a single incorporated bank in most of the Deep South states. Almost all lending was private, between planters and clients. As urbanization sets in, so will urban economic development. I except New Orleans to take a serious lead ITTL: Louisiana had a free banking law similar to New York, and I suspect the Confederacy would never politically tolerate something similar to the National Banking System. State banks in the South will remain the primary note issuers, which my understanding of financial economics leads me to believe the South will actually have a more stable banking system than the North (although, naturally, a MUCH smaller one for a long time).

How will the industrial city look in a South where the financial oligarchs of the Gilded Age are replaced by planter aristocrats and their pet bankers? Keep in mind that a lot of the plutocrats of the Gilded Age were 'New Men', men who had risen to wealth from more moderate social standing (even if still fairly well off in many cases). ITTL, the banking elite will most likely be subservient to, if not mostly made up of, a planter aristocracy that is the very definition of Old Money in America at the time.
 

Reggie Bartlett

Banned
CSA cities which may experience such trends in TTL:

Frankfort
Lexington, KY
Louisville
Norfolk
Charlottesville
Petersburg, VA
Charlotte
Knoxville
Chattannooga
Birmingham/Elyton
Atlanta
Charleston
Savannah
Selma
Houston
Dallas
El Paso
Tucson
Chihuahua City
Hermosillo
Guayamas

Are there any other towns which could see a significant change from all this?
 

sloreck

An independent CSA will NOT have lots of capital to draw on. One of the reasons the south was so poor after the CW was that most of the capital vanished - no more slaves. In the CSA, unlike the north, most capital was tied up in slaves with land being the other "investment". The USA OTL was a net importer of capital until the late 19th century (exactly when it flipped cannot recall). Don't forget that the Union was way more populous than the south, and a large percentage of the south was slaves who consumed very little. Given this, it should be clear that European money would flow north not south. Furthermore a UK capitalist/company being a major owner of a southern industrial plant (steel mill for example) that utilized slave labor to a significant extent (and slaves were used in southern industry at least in dangerous/dirty lower skill jobs) would run in to a lot of political flak at home.

Most importantly the political leadership and power class in the CSA was very much against industrial development - directly, and by not spending on infrastructure improvements (southern representatives had fought these in congress prior to the CW) or having any protective tariffs. An independent CSA will count on importing industrial products (from UK, France, or USA) paying with money earned from "King Cotton". Local development will be that deemed absolutely essential for the Confederate military and not much more. Once "King Cotton" is dethroned by any combination of non-CSA cotton and the boll weevil, they will be thoroughly screwed. OTL when the cotton economy took serious hits late 19th century/early 20th the northern economy was there to prevent complete collapse..not present in an independent CSA.
 
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