Retrospective US Presidential Elections

[Nerdlinger]

Would anyone be interested in participating in a project in which we at AH.com would essentially run every US presidential election over again? Each week, I'll put up a thread for an election year (beginning in 1789) with a poll containing all the actual presidential candidates. Anyone here can vote in the poll, and at the end of each week, we'll see how our results compare to the actual election results for that year. What do you think?

~~~~~~

EDIT: Please use this thread for general discussion of the Retrospective US Presidential Election project. The results thread is here.

[ColeMercury]

Just go ahead and do it.

[CT23]

I'll vote in it, go ahead.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by ColeMercury

Just go ahead and do it.

Originally Posted by CT23

I'll vote in it, go ahead.

OK, cool. I'm just gauging potential support for it. Does anyone know if someone here has done this before?

[wolf_brother]

Isn't this something that AH.com does already all the time? Like here for instance, in a thread started just yesterday.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Isn't this something that AH.com does already all the time? Like here for instance, in a thread started just yesterday.

Well, I was thinking of doing it in actual poll form, one election at a time.

[stefanbl]

Originally Posted by wolf_brother

Isn't this something that AH.com does already all the time? Like here for instance, in a thread started just yesterday.

Parsing the information would be too much effort.

Also won't once a week have us going on for more than a year?

I'm we could stretch ourselves to two concurrent threads.

[Nerdlinger]

Originally Posted by stefanbl

Parsing the information would be too much effort.

Also won't once a week have us going on for more than a year?

I'm we could stretch ourselves to two concurrent threads.

I plan to run the first 28 elections (1789-1896) in the pre-1900 forum at the same time as I run the next 28 elections (1900-2008) in the post-1900 forum. That should speed things up.

[ColeMercury]

Originally Posted by stefanbl

Also won't once a week have us going on for more than a year?

Yeah, it'd be 59 weeks for each election from 1789 to 2012 (which would be in the past by the time we've reached it.) So what?

Originally Posted by DJC

I plan to run the first 28 elections (1789-1896) in the pre-1900 forum at the same time as I run the next 28 elections (1900-2008) in the post-1900 forum. That should speed things up.

Or we could do it like that.

[Nerdlinger]

I'll probably start this project up at midnight Eastern Time (US) between Saturday night and Sunday morning. Hopefully it's well-received.

[Yelnoc]

Me likey...

[Samm]

Will you put in the minor candidates that ran as well or just the big two?

[vultan]

Originally Posted by Samm

Will you put in the minor candidates that ran as well or just the big two?

Probably do it like this: if the candidate got at least 1% of the vote historically, put them in the poll. That way, the least significant candidates you would get would be the American Independent Party's John G. Schmitz in 1972, Libertarian Ed Clark in 1980, and Ralph Nader's Green campaign in 2000.

[Tim Thomason]

Originally Posted by vultan

Probably do it like this: if the candidate got at least 1% of the vote historically, put them in the poll. That way, the least significant candidates you would get would be the American Independent Party's John G. Schmitz in 1972, Libertarian Ed Clark in 1980, and Ralph Nader's Green campaign in 2000.

Actually, the least significant candidates are:

1. 1920's Parley P. Christensen of the Farmer-Labor Party (1.0%)
2. abovementioned Clark (1.1%)
3. 1916's Frank Hanly of the Prohibition Party (1.2%)
4. 1888's Alson Streeter of the Union Labor Party (1.3%)
5. 1912's Eugene W. Chafin of the Prohibition Party (1.4%)
6. abovementioned Schmitz (1.4%)
7. 1884's John St. John of the Prohibition Party (1.5%)
8. 1900's John G. Woolley of the Prohibition Party (1.5%)
9. 1884's Benjamin Franklin Butler of the Greenback Party (1.7%)
10. Chafin again in 1908 (1.7%)
11. The slate of Massachusetts unpledged electors in 1824, if it counts (1.8%)
12. 1904's Silas C. Swallow of the Prohibition Party (1.9%)
13. 1812's Rufus King of a wayward branch of the Federalist Party (2%)
14. 1936's William Lemke of the Union Party (2%)
15. 1888's Clinton B. Fisk of the Prohibition Party (2.2%)
16. 1892's John Bidwell of the Prohibition Party (2.2%)
17. 1932's Norman Thomas of the Socialist Party (2.2%)
18. 1844's James G. Birney of the Liberty Party (2.3%)
19. 1948's Strom Thurmond of the States' Rights Democratic Party (2.4%)
20. 1948's Henry A. Wallace of the Progressive Party (2.4%)
21. 1808's James Monroe (2.5%) - thanks to the Quids and their craziness
22. 1836's Daniel Webster of the Whig Party (2.7%) - thanks to the Whigs grand plan to lose an otherwise easy election that year
23. *and then* the abovementioned Nader 2000 (2.7%)

Here's the full list:

• 1788: Popular Vote: Washington 100% (Electoral Vote: Washington 100% - Adams 49.2% - Jay 13% - Harrison 8.6% - Rutledge 8.6% - Hancock 5.8% - Clinton 4.4% - Huntington 2.8% - Milton 2.8% - Armstrong 1.4% - Lincoln 1.4% - Telfair 1.4%)
• 1792: Popular Vote: Washington 100% (Electoral Vote: Washington 100% - Adams 58.4% - Clinton 37.8% - Jefferson 3%)
• 1796: Popular Vote: Adams 53.4% - Jefferson 46.6% (Electoral Vote: Adams 51.4% - Jefferson 49.2% - Pinckney 42.8% - Burr 21.8% - S. Adams 10.8% - Ellsworth 8% - Clinton 5% - Jay 3.6% - Iredell 2.2% - Henry 1.4% - Johnston 1.4% - Washington 1.4%)
• 1800: Popular Vote: Jefferson 61.4% - Adams 38.6% (Electoral Vote: Burr 52.8% - Jefferson 52.8% - Adams 47.2% - Pinckney 46.4%)
• 1804: Popular Vote: Jefferson 72.8% - Pinckney 27.2% (Electoral Vote: Jefferson 92% - Pinckney 8%)
• 1808: Popular Vote: Madison 64.7% - Pinckney 32.4% - Monroe 2.5% (Electoral Vote: Madison 69.7% - Pinckney 26.9% - Clinton 3.4%)
• 1812: Popular Vote: Madison 50.4% - Clinton 47.6% - King 2% (Electoral Vote: Madison 59% - Clinton 41%)
• 1816: Popular Vote: Monroe 68.2% - King 30.9% (Electoral Vote: Monroe 84.3% - King 15.7%)
• 1820: Popular Vote: Monroe 100% (Electoral Vote: Monroe 99.6%)
• 1824: Popular Vote: Jackson 41.3% - Adams 39.9% - Crawford 11.2% - Clay 13% - unpledged 1.8% (Electoral Vote: Jackson 37.9% - Adams 32.2% - Crawford 15.7% - Clay 14.2%)
• 1828: Popular Vote: Jackson 56% - Adams 43.6% (Electoral Vote: Jackson 68.2% - Adams 31.8%)
• 1832: Popular Vote: Jackson 54.2% - Clay 37.4% - Wirt 7.8% (Electoral Vote: Jackson 76.6% - Clay 17.1% - Floyd 3.8% - Wirt 2.4%)
• 1836: Popular Vote: Van Buren 50.8% - Harrison 36.6% - White 9.7% - Webster 2.7% (Electoral Vote: Van Buren 57.8% - Harrison 24.8% - White 8.8% - Webster 4.8% - Mangum 3.7%)
• 1840: Popular Vote: Harrison 52.9% - Van Buren 46.8% (Electoral Vote: Harrison 79.6% - Van Buren 20.4%)
• 1844: Popular Vote: Polk 49.5% - Clay 48.1% - Birney 2.3% (Electoral Vote: Polk 61.8% - Clay 38.2%)
• 1848: Popular Vote: Taylor 47.3% - Cass 42.5% - Van Buren 10.1% (Electoral Vote: Taylor 56.2% - Cass 43.8%)
• 1852: Popular Vote: Pierce 50.8% - Scott 43.9% - Hale 4.9% (Electoral Vote: Pierce 85.8% - Scott 14.2%)
• 1856: Popular Vote: Buchanan 45.3% - Frémont 33.1% - Fillmore 21.6% (Electoral Vote: Buchanan 58.8% - Frémont 38.5% - Fillmore 2.7%)
• 1860: Popular Vote: Lincoln 39.8% - Douglas 29.5% - Breckinridge 18.1% - Bell 12.6% (Electoral Vote: Lincoln 59.4% - Breckinridge 23.8% - Bell 12.9% - Douglas 4%)
• 1864: Popular Vote: Lincoln 55% - McClellan 45% (Electoral Vote: Lincoln 91% - McClellan 9%)
• 1868: Popular Vote: Grant 52.7% - Seymour 47.3% (Electoral Vote: Grant 72.8% - Seymour 27.2%)
• 1872: Popular Vote: Grant 55.6% - Greeley 43.8% (Electoral Vote: Grant 81.9% - Hendricks 12% - Brown 5.2%)
• 1876: Popular Vote: Tilden 51.5% - Hayes 47.5% (Electoral Vote: Hayes 50.1% - Tilden 49.9%)
• 1880: Popular Vote: Garfield 48.3% - Hancock 48.2% - Weaver 3.3% (Electoral Vote: Garfield 58% - Hancock 42%)
• 1884: Popular Vote: Cleveland 48.5% - Blaine 48.2% - Butler 1.7% - St. John 1.5% (Electoral Vote: Cleveland 54.6% - Blaine 45.4%)
• 1888: Popular Vote: Cleveland 48.6% - Harrison 47.8% - Fisk 2.2% - Streeter 1.3% (Electoral Vote: Harrison 58.1% - Cleveland 41.9%)
• 1892: Popular Vote: Cleveland 46% - Harrison 43% - Weaver 8.5% - Bidwell 2.2% (Electoral Vote: Cleveland 62.4% - Harrison 32.7% - Weaver 5%)
• 1896: Popular Vote: McKinley 51% - Bryan 46.7% (Electoral Vote: McKinley 60.6% - Bryan 39.4%)
• 1900: Popular Vote: McKinley 51.6% - Bryan 45.5% - Woolley 1.5% (Electoral Vote: McKinley 65.3% - Bryan 34.7%)
• 1904: Popular Vote: Roosevelt 56.4% - Parker 37.6% - Debs 3% - Swallow 1.9% (Electoral Vote: Roosevelt 70.6% - Parker 29.4%)
• 1908: Popular Vote: Taft 51.6% - Bryan 43% - Debs 2.8% - Chafin 1.7% (Electoral Vote: Taft 66.5% - Bryan 33.5%)
• 1912: Popular Vote: Wilson 41.8% - Roosevelt 27.4% - Taft 23.2% - Debs 6% - Chafin 1.4% (Electoral Vote: Wilson 81.9% - Roosevelt 16.6% - Taft 1.5%)
• 1916: Popular Vote: Wilson 49.2% - Hughes 46.1% - Benson 3.2% - Hanly 1.2% (Electoral Vote: Wilson 52.2% - Hughes 47.8%)
• 1920: Popular Vote: Harding 60.3% - Cox 34.1% - Debs 3.4% - Christensen 1% (Electoral Vote: Harding 76.1% - Cox 23.9%)
• 1924: Popular Vote: Coolidge 54% - Davis 28.8% - La Follette 16.6% (Electoral Vote: Coolidge 71.9% - Davis 25.6% - La Follette 2.4%)
• 1928: Popular Vote: Hoover 58.2% - Smith 40.8% (Electoral Vote: Hoover 83.6% - Smith 16.4%)
• 1932: Popular Vote: Roosevelt 57.4% - Hoover 39.7% - Thomas 2.2% (Electoral Vote: Roosevelt 88.9% - Hoover 11.1%)
• 1936: Popular Vote: Roosevelt 60.8% - Landon 36.5% - Lemke 2% (Electoral Vote: Roosevelt 98.5% - Landon 1.5%)
• 1940: Popular Vote: Roosevelt 54.7% - Willkie 44.8% (Electoral Vote: Roosevelt 84.6% - Willkie 15.4%)
• 1944: Popular Vote: Roosevelt 53.4% - Dewey 45.9% (Electoral Vote: Roosevelt 81.4% - Dewey 18.6%)
• 1948: Popular Vote: Truman 49.6% - Dewey 45.1% - Thurmond 2.4% - Wallace 2.4% (Electoral Vote: Truman 57.1% - Dewey 35.6% - Thurmond 7.3%)
• 1952: Popular Vote: Eisenhower 55.2% - Stevenson 44.3% (Electoral Vote: Eisenhower 83.2% - Stevenson 16.8%)
• 1956: Popular Vote: Eisenhower 57.4% - Stevenson 42% (Electoral Vote: Eisenhower 86% - Stevenson 13.7%)
• 1960: Popular Vote: Kennedy 49.7% - Nixon 49.6% (Electoral Vote: Kennedy 56.4% - Nixon 40.8% - Byrd 2.8%)
• 1964: Popular Vote: Johnson 61.1% - Goldwater 38.5% (Electoral Vote: Johnson 90.3% - Goldwater 9.7%)
• 1968: Popular Vote: Nixon 43.4% - Humphrey 42.7% - Wallace 13.5% (Electoral Vote: Nixon 55.9% - Humphrey 35.5% - Wallace 8.6%)
• 1972: Popular Vote: Nixon 60.7% - McGovern 37.5% - Schmitz 1.4% (Electoral Vote: Nixon 96.7% - McGovern 3.2%)
• 1976: Popular Vote: Carter 50.1% - Ford 48% (Electoral Vote: Carter 55.2% - Ford 44.6%)
• 1980: Popular Vote: Reagan 50.7% - Carter 41% - Anderson 6.6% - Clark 1.1% (Electoral Vote: Reagan 90.9% - Carter 9.1%)
• 1984: Popular Vote: Reagan 58.8% - Mondale 40.6% (Electoral Vote: Reagan 97.6% - Mondale 2.4%)
• 1988: Popular Vote: Bush 53.4% - Dukakis 45.7% (Electoral Vote: Bush 79.2% - Dukakis 20.6%)
• 1992: Popular Vote: Clinton 43% - Bush 37.5% - Perot 18.9% (Electoral Vote: Clinton 68.8% - Bush 31.2%)
• 1996: Popular Vote: Clinton 49.2% - Dole 40.7% - Perot 8.4% (Electoral Vote: Clinton 70.4% - Dole 29.6%)
• 2000: Popular Vote: Gore 48.3% - Bush 47.9% - Nader 2.7% (Electoral Vote: Bush 50.4% - Gore 49.4%)
• 2004: Popular Vote: Bush 50.7% - Kerry 48.3% (Electoral Vote: Bush 53.2% - Kerry 46.7%)
• 2008: Popular Vote: Obama 52.9% - McCain 45.7% (Electoral Vote: Obama 67.8% - McCain 32.2%)

[Nerdlinger]

Here's my tentative list of candidates for each election. For 1789-1800, which was before electors had to differentiate between votes for president and VP (and popular vote tallies seem to be rather lacking), I included everyone who received at least 5% of the electoral vote. From 1804-2008, I included everyone who received at least 0.05% of the popular vote. I made this cutoff low so as to spice up the elections with some wacky third-party candidates. What do you think?

1789 (6): George Washington, John Adams, John Jay, Robert Harrison, John Rutledge, John Hancock
1792 (3): George Washington, John Adams, George Clinton
1796 (7): John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Pinckney, Aaron Burr, Samuel Adams, Oliver Ellsworth, George Clinton
1800 (4): Thomas Jefferson, Aaron Burr, John Adams, Charles Pinckney
1804 (2): Thomas Jefferson, Charles Pinckney
1808 (3): James Madison, Charles Pinckney, James Monroe
1812 (3): James Madison, DeWitt Clinton, Rufus King
1816 (2): James Monroe, Rufus King
1820 (2): James Monroe, DeWitt Clinton
1824 (4): John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson, William Crawford, Henry Clay
1828 (2): Andrew Jackson, John Quincy Adams
1832 (3): Andrew Jackson, Henry Clay, William Wirt
1836 (4): Martin Van Buren, William H. Harrison, Hugh White, Daniel Webster
1840 (3): William H. Harrison, Martin Van Buren, James G. Birney
1844 (3): James K. Polk, Henry Clay, James G. Birney
1848 (4): Zachary Taylor, Lewis Cass, Martin Van Buren, Gerrit Smith
1852 (5): Franklin Pierce, Winfield Scott, John Hale, George M. Troup, Jacob Broom
1856 (3): James Buchanan, John Fremont, Millard Fillmore
1860 (4): Abraham Lincoln, John Breckenridge, John Bell, Stephen Douglas
1864 (2): Abraham Lincoln, George McClellan
1868 (2): Ulysses Grant, Horatio Seymour
1872 (4): Ulysses Grant, Horace Greeley, Charles O'Conor, James Black
1876 (4): Rutherford Hayes, Samuel Tilden, Peter Cooper, Green Smith
1880 (4): James Garfield, Winfield Hancock, James Weaver, Neal Dow
1884 (4): Grover Cleveland, James Blaine, John St. John, Benjamin Butler
1888 (4): Benjamin Harrison, Grover Cleveland, Clinton Fisk, Alson Streeter
1892 (5): Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison, James Weaver, John Bidwell, Simon Wing
1896 (6): William McKinley, William Jennings Bryan, John Palmer, Joshua Levering, Charles Matchett, Charles Bentley
1900 (6): William McKinley, William Jennings Bryan, John Woolley, Eugene Debs, Wharton Barker, Joseph Maloney
1904 (6): Theodore Roosevelt, Alton Parker, Eugene Debs, Silas Swallow, Thomas Watson, Charles Corregan
1908 (7): William Taft, William Jennings Bryan, Eugene Debs, Eugene Chafin, Thomas Hisgen, Thomas Watson, August Gilhaus
1912 (6): Woodrow Wilson, Theodore Roosevelt, William Taft, Eugene Debs, Eugene Chafin, Arthur Reimer
1916 (5): Woodrow Wilson, Charles Hughes, Allan Benson, James Hanly, Arthur Reimer
1920 (7): Warren Harding, James Cox, Eugene Debs, Parley Christiansen, Aaron Watkins, James Ferguson, William Cox
1924 (7): Calvin Coolidge, John Davis, Robert La Follette, Herman Faris, William Foster, Frank Johns, Gilbert Nations
1928 (6): Herbert Hoover, Alfred Smith, Norman Thomas, William Foster, Verne Reynolds, William Varney
1932 (7): Franklin Roosevelt, Herbert Hoover, Norman Thomas, William Foster, William Upshaw, William Harvey, Verne Reynolds
1936 (6): Franklin Roosevelt, Alfred Landon, William Lemke, Norman Thomas, Earl Browder, D. Leigh Colvin
1940 (5): Franklin Roosevelt, Wendell Willkie, Norman Thomas, Roger Babson, Earl Browder
1944 (5): Franklin Roosevelt, Thomas Dewey, Norman Thomas, Claude Watson, Edward Teichert
1948 (7): Harry Truman, Thomas Dewey, Strom Thurmond, Henry Wallace, Norman Thomas, Claude Watson, Edward Teichert
1952 (4): Dwight Eisenhower, Adlai Stevenson, Vincent Hallinan, Stuart Hamblen
1956 (5): Dwight Eisenhower, Adlai Stevenson, T. Coleman Andrews, Eric Hass, Enoch Holtwick
1960 (6): John Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Eric Hass, Rutherford Decker, Orval Faubus, Farrell Dobbs
1964 (3): Lyndon Johnson, Barry Goldwater, Eric Hass
1968 (6): Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, George Wallace, Henning Blomen, Dick Gregory, Fred Halstead
1972 (6): Richard Nixon, George McGovern, John Schmitz, Linda Jenness, Benjamin Spock, Louis Fisher
1976 (9): James Carter, Gerald Ford, Eugene McCarthy, Roger MacBride, Lester Maddox, Thomas Anderson, Peter Camejo, Gus Hall, Margaret Wright
1980 (6): Ronald Reagan, James Carter, John Anderson, Edward Clark, Barry Commoner, Gus Hall
1984 (7): Ronald Reagan, Walter Mondale, David Bergland, Lyndon LaRouche, Sonia Johnson, Bob Richards, Dennis Serrette
1988 (5): George Bush, Michael Dukakis, Ron Paul, Lenora Fulani, David Duke
1992 (6): William Clinton, George Bush, Ross Perot, Andre Marrou, James Bo Gritz, Lenore Fulani
1996 (7): William Clinton, Robert Dole, Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, Harry Browne, Howard Phillips, John Hagelin
2000 (7): George W. Bush, Al Gore, Ralph Nader, Pat Buchanan, Harry Browne, Howard Phillips, John Hagelin
2004 (6): George W. Bush, John Kerry, Ralph Nader, Michael Badnarik, Michael Peroutka, David Cobb
2008 (6): Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader, Bob Barr, Charles Baldwin, Cynthia McKinney

[stefanbl]

Could you include Victoria Woodhull (Equal rights party) for the 1872 election?

[Makemakean]

Originally Posted by stefanbl

Could you include Victoria Woodhull (Equal rights party) for the 1872 election?

You beat me to it!

DAMNED YOU!!!

[stefanbl]

Originally Posted by Makemakean

You beat me to it!

DAMNED YOU!!!

This has gave me a thought, I think I'll do a

Who would you have voted for in UK general elections since 1832?

Thread.

(Not as individuals, as a list).

[Makemakean]

Originally Posted by stefanbl

This has gave me a thought, I think I'll do a Thread.

(Not as individuals, as a list).

Oooh, that list would include some problematic questions: Should I vote Asquith Liberal and Lloyd George Liberal in 1918 and 1922, and should I vote National Liberal or just plain Liberal in the 30s (wait that one isn't difficult: plain Liberal, I would have supported the resignation over the tariffs!)...

If we went with candidates, things would be, slightly different. I don't believe in tactical voting, so I'd most likely be inclined to vote LibDem even if they seemed to have no chance of winning at all, but there are circumstances in which I'd vote different. First, if the Conservative Party or the Labour Party had a particularly nice leader, the candidate they nominated stood relatively close to me and the LibDems looked like they were going to lose big anytime, I might vote for that candidate. And then of course there are two LibDem candidates I would have problems to vote for: Simon Hughes for appealing to bigotry in the 1983 election when he ran against LGBT-rights activist Peter Tatchell ("The Straight Choice for Bermondsey"?) and for Adrian Sanders for pushing over Mark Littlewood after being angered by Littlewood's concern that his seat was at risk of being lost in the next election.

At least Simon Hughes has had the dignity and the guts to apologize for those pamphlets:

Mr Hughes told the BBC’s Newsnight programme: “I hope that there will never be that sort of campaign again. I have never been comfortable about the whole of that campaign, as Peter knows, and I said that to him in the past . . . Where there were things that were inappropriate or wrong, I apologise for that.”

“The Liberals fought a very dirty campaign during the Bermondsey by-election,” Peter Tatchell told PinkNews.co.uk. “Some of their male canvassers went around the constituency wearing lapel stickers emblazoned with the words ‘I’ve been kissed by Peter Tatchell’, in a blatant bid to win the homophobic vote.”

But Mr Tatchell, now a Green Party member, revealed that it’s time to “forgive and forget,” he said: “Simon Hughes is the best of the Lib Dem leadership candidates. If I was a party member, he’d get my vote.”

so I might actually forgive him, and throw him my vote. He has had more honor than Ron Paul in that he actually has taken personal responsibility for what his campaign did, and that does deserve some respect.

[stefanbl]

Originally Posted by Makemakean

Oooh, that list would include some problematic questions: Should I vote Asquith Liberal and Lloyd George Liberal in 1918 and 1922, and should I vote National Liberal or just plain Liberal in the 30s (wait that one isn't difficult: plain Liberal, I would have supported the resignation over the tariffs!)...

Vote Asquith!

Lloyd George was doing his best to destroy the Liberal party.