Prince Henry of Prussia: The Rise of U-Boat.

[Richter von Manthofen]

I think Dakar would be the "best" place for a Naval base. Morocco is too much North (Ifni another choice place is Spanish).

If Germany demands Djibouti that place is a threat to the Suez channel from the south side. UK might want to prevent this and agree to swap this place for Zanzibar - which is "equally" important to Germanys Daressallam

I don't think Italy and The Dutch should get too much in the peace - after all they stayed neutral!

Territory trasfer with AH wiould be part of a different negotiation (at least officially)

If I read the thread correctly AH was quite better off TTL, so Karl should be able to transform the double monarchy from a stronger position. Giving up something to settle things with Italy would be a smart move.

If Italy also gets concessions in Albania (Austria might want a naval base to control one side of the Otranto straits - Vlore for example) - Italy might be tied more to the CPs.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

I think Dakar would be the "best" place for a Naval base. Morocco is too much North (Ifni another choice place is Spanish).

Why to much North? To the North are the major shipping lines, and Morocco is perfectly suited to harass trade through the Med, thus it's as big a threat to Britain as a base close to Suez.

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

If Germany demands Djibouti that place is a threat to the Suez channel from the south side. UK might want to prevent this and agree to swap this place for Zanzibar - which is "equally" important to Germanys Daressallam

True.

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

I don't think Italy and The Dutch should get too much in the peace - after all they stayed neutral!

I think the first idea is to push up demands in the negotiations that do not directly benefit the CP, but weaken the Allies. That's good for the initial negotiation position. With time passing by, Germany could then point out that the massive reparation it is demanding can be payed for by selling territories.

[wietze]

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

I don't think Italy and The Dutch should get too much in the peace - after all they stayed neutral!

don't know about the italians ittl, but the dutch in otl were 'neutral', but in reality more leaning towards germany. As for dutch neutrality, seen from the cp side the netherlands was far more valuable neutral than as active CP member.

And i could imagine the CP wants to reward them to ensure at least their 'flexible' neutrality for the future (but can also be a way to draw them closer to the CP camp).

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

If Germany demands Djibouti that place is a threat to the Suez channel from the south side. UK might want to prevent this and agree to swap this place for Zanzibar - which is "equally" important to Germanys Daressallam

Jedda in Arabia is a better base. I can supply from rail directly from Germany, and the coastal artillery can shoot a good portion of the way across the Red Sea. Duba is also a better base, but it would take a massive investment to build a real port. Also, I can't see Germany putting a major fleet here, so we are looking at U-boats, torpedo boats, naval aviation, coastal artillery and mines. I only have to be really able to stop merchant traffic.

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

I think the first idea is to push up demands in the negotiations that do not directly benefit the CP, but weaken the Allies. That's good for the initial negotiation position. With time passing by, Germany could then point out that the massive reparation it is demanding can be payed for by selling territories.

Well selling for reparations is the fall back position. So lets say the UK and France are demanding reparations and the UK absolutely will not accept Germany holding Morocco. Then selling French Morocco to Spain is a good fall back position, but it is not where one starts the negotiation.

Same for Tunisia. The CP will demand the colony, and plan to sell it to Italy. But Italy balks on buying it, the Tunisia just goes back to the Ottomans, or might even be a part of an colony exchange.

[lukedalton]

I don't think Italy and The Dutch should get too much in the peace - after all they stayed neutral!

Regarding Italy, well neutrality leaning to the CP is what Germany in OTL demand and try to negotiate and here obtained. It's just that ITTL A-H decide that for she want pay zero; so the only mean that any italian goverment accepted this and not the Entente offer of everything we want so to block the same scenario who prompted our enter in OTL WWI is some serious promise of later compensation.

Territory trasfer with AH wiould be part of a different negotiation (at least officially)

If I read the thread correctly AH was quite better off TTL, so Karl should be able to transform the double monarchy from a stronger position. Giving up something to settle things with Italy would be a smart move.

Smart move and A-h relationships with Italy are rarely in the same phrase, but maybe due to war destruction, economic and political turmoil, the Magyar, he can think that patch up things with his neighbour is a good thing

If Italy also gets concessions in Albania (Austria might want a naval base to control one side of the Otranto straits - Vlore for example) - Italy might be tied more to the CPs

I don't know how usefull is a naval base surrounded by not so friendly italian troops. It's better demand a strict limit of how much military personell and material can be in Albania

[abc123]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

Bulgaria: Greater Bulgaria: Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria. Maybe some side deals with Romania or Greece on border adjustments.




Comments welcomed.

Bulgaria doesen?t need nor want anything from Montenegro. Also, from Serbia they want Macedonia and part around Niš.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by abc123

Bulgaria doesen?t need nor want anything from Montenegro. Also, from Serbia they want Macedonia and part around Niš.

Well, yes Montenegro would be the easiest thing to compromise on for the Bulgarians.

As to Serbia, ITTL, there are no Serbs left in Serbia, so really they are just taken an empty North of the country. Fifty % of all people in Serbia in July 1914 did not live to see July 1916, and the dead are disproportionally Serbs. The problem with Northern Serbia is that with all the deaths of WW1, there are no populations that can be resettle there after I determined that A-H would not expel the Southern Slavs and Jews would not be forcibly relocated to Serbia.

[wietze]

this tl saw some grim things (just like otl), but the biggest good thing of this timeline i consider the early peace, pretty much butterflying away spanish flu in its otl form.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by wietze

this tl saw some grim things (just like otl), but the biggest good thing of this timeline i consider the early peace, pretty much butterflying away spanish flu in its otl form.

Yes, that and the 18 months fewer war deaths and the higher birth rate in 1918/19. When I get to it, the demographic changes will be profound. There might even be enough whites for some African settler colonies. Right now I lean towards.

1) Algeria, or at least western Algeria, will become a French majority.

2) Libya and maybe Tunisia become majority Italian.

3) UK will have one more white majority settler colony, that last until today. Maybe high lands of Uganda.

4) Germany is harder call, with the extra land, that well have Poles largely leave.

5) A-H is harder call, lot more things going on. Inflows/Outflows.

While I emphasis Serbia, the death toll for civilians will be lower. For every dead Serb, there is one extra Greek alive. The Ottomans never had a reason to expel them.

[wietze]

Agree, stunningly profound differences, even with a lighter spanish flu that gonna have massive political influences too (influential people staying alive).
OTL it was 100-150M dead, so those staying alive changes everything

first 2 are absolutely very likely, Libya essentially becoming the italian version of french metropolitan north africa.

3. not sure what you have in mind for S.A., but continued independence is highly likely. Wouldn't they try to attract white settlers too? with the altered demographics i could see the netherlands earlier starting to stimulate emigration. From this either the dutch colonies or South-Africa could benefit.
(dutch madagascar? )

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by wietze

Agree, stunningly profound differences, even with a lighter spanish flu that gonna have massive political influences too (influential people staying alive).
OTL it was 100-150M dead, so those staying alive changes everything

first 2 are absolutely very likely, Libya essentially becoming the italian version of french metropolitan north africa.

3. not sure what you have in mind for S.A., but continued independence is highly likely. Wouldn't they try to attract white settlers too? with the altered demographics i could see the netherlands earlier starting to stimulate emigration. From this either the dutch colonies or South-Africa could benefit.
(dutch madagascar? )

After spending 500 million to 1,000 million marks on Kamerun, I expect Germany to be trying to attract immigrants down there. While there are horrible Malarial swamps, there are some nicer area at elevation, and the major dam projects provide a lot of electricity. Angola is also appealing.

I am not so sure the Netherlands have enough people to create a major new settler colony. And Greater South Africa has annexed a lot of blacks.

[wietze]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

After spending 500 million to 1,000 million marks on Kamerun, I expect Germany to be trying to attract immigrants down there. While there are horrible Malarial swamps, there are some nicer area at elevation, and the major dam projects provide a lot of electricity. Angola is also appealing.

I am not so sure the Netherlands have enough people to create a major new settler colony. And Greater South Africa has annexed a lot of blacks.

I personally would think that S.A. benefit most of any dutch migrating to africa.
S.A. just had more publicity the last decade, and it may want to re-strengthen the ties with the Netherlands.
but agree, completely filling a new colony is unlikely, more people moving to the colonies is going to change few things though.

Indeed we are going to see a lot more europeans move to other places, and bunches of germans going to their colonies instead of the us etc.

oh btw madagascar a more recent french colony, so could imagine that there is a high chance it gets used as change in negotions.

[Detlef]

Originally Posted by BlondieBC

After spending 500 million to 1,000 million marks on Kamerun, I expect Germany to be trying to attract immigrants down there. While there are horrible Malarial swamps, there are some nicer area at elevation, and the major dam projects provide a lot of electricity. Angola is also appealing.

This.

Parts of Angola could be really attractive to European / German (farmer) settlers. Not equatorial rain forest like Togo or Cameroon nor steppes or desert like South West Africa (slightly exaggerated) .
And some colonies like Cameroon (maybe South West Africa) are now also interesting for industrial workers, miners and so on.
I don´t see a German (European) majority in these colonies but I can easily see more German / European immigrants there than in our TL.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Detlef

This.

Parts of Angola could be really attractive to European / German (farmer) settlers. Not equatorial rain forest like Togo or Cameroon nor steppes or desert like South West Africa (slightly exaggerated) .
And some colonies like Cameroon (maybe South West Africa) are now also interesting for industrial workers, miners and so on.
I don´t see a German (European) majority in these colonies but I can easily see more German / European immigrants there than in our TL.

There is a rich area that is quite attractive. At this time period, it is lightly settled, and has electrical power which Angola will not have. To me, it looks like a tempting place for a Central European to settle or even a landless German living in Brazil.

An irregular chain of mountains, hills, and plateaus known as the Cameroon range extends from Mount Cameroon on the coast—Cameroon's highest point at 4,095 metres (13,435 ft)[57]—almost to Lake Chad at Cameroon's northern border at 13°05'N. This region has a mild climate, particularly on the Western High Plateau, although rainfall is high. Its soils are among Cameroon's most fertile, especially around volcanic Mount Cameroon.[57] Volcanism here has created crater lakes. On 21 August 1986, one of these, Lake Nyos, belched carbon dioxide and killed between 1,700 and 2,000 people.[58] This area has been delineated by the World Wildlife Fund as the Cameroonian Highlands forests ecoregion.

At the link below you will see the appeal of the region. I would think the chance to be a rich tea grower would appeal to a farmer from Europe. It is a lot better land than the crap my grandparents farmed in America. It is also high up, out of the malarial zone. The temperature drops 6-10 C degrees for every 1000 meters. So a hot 30-40 degree tropical Kamerun, gets into a much more workable mid 20's. Now it is not a huge area, but to me, a smaller area of excellent land where you can create a white setter colony will have a lot of appeal.

http://www.coolest-traveling.com/201...y-destination/

[Monty Burns]

Considering demographics as a whole, a lot depends on the economic situation after the war. If you have stable countries and economies, population growth would be a lot higher, adding to the lesser demographic losses.

Considering Germany in particular, you have a significantly lower death toll, not only with soldiers, but also with civilians thanks to a less severe blockade. Poles will be leaving, but I don't see that as significant. A Pole in Prussia has the choice of staying where he lives (many would do that), going to the Ruhr or Berlin or other German industrial centres, or going to Poland. The overall demographic loss wouldn't be that large.

On the other side, as already discussed, the new German lands will attract many Jews from Eastern Europe as well as Germans from Russia. That should be a major demographic gain. Not to mention that in the German dominated lands (Poland, Baltics), industrialization still lacks behind, so we'll likely see a steady migration to the German industrial centres (most people in the new states of Eastern Europe will know German after all). Now the question is how many of those people Germany is willing to accept - but sending them to the colonies is the obvious choice if they should not stay in Germany proper. The German settler colonies will therefore be distinctively Jiddish and Eastern European. Emigration from AH most likely will also go to Germany and German colonies to a large degree.

Aside from that, I don't see many Germans emigrating as settlers. What will happen, though, is Germans migrating as specialists. I don't see white settlement in Cameroon as it happened in Australia, but there'll be a sizeable and well integrated white minority descendant from white officers, officials and experts needed to develop the colony in a major base. The same will happen in Eastern Africa and Angola.

[Richter von Manthofen]

even if the war is over earlier , I would not take out the "Spanish" Flu completely. It came probably from the US with the Soldiers (1st wave of flu early 1918). Peace might even enhance the spread as
1. Soldiers go home
2. peacetime traffic will increase over IOTL frontlines

IOTL the flu took between 25-70 Mio. dead...

[wietze]

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

even if the war is over earlier , I would not take out the "Spanish" Flu completely. It came probably from the US with the Soldiers (1st wave of flu early 1918). Peace might even enhance the spread as
1. Soldiers go home
2. peacetime traffic will increase over IOTL frontlines

IOTL the flu took between 25-70 Mio. dead...

the evolution of the spanish flu in otl is thought to have taken place in the trenches of france. the peculiar situation of the slightly sick staying in the trenches, and the severe sick being transported promoted the evolution of a virulent version of the flu. The normal situation is that slightly sick people keep going on, and the very sick stay home, thus spreading the less virulent version. In the trenches this was reversed.
And in addition to that the us never joined the war, so them moving of the virus to europe never takes place.

virus evolution and appearance is very much result of lots of factors adding up, and due to the earlier peace the virus might not even jump from animals to humans. so many of the factors are subject to randomness that it could very easily change, and even if the virus appears i expect it to evolve into a less virulent strain, which probably has slightly more lethality than the usual flus. It still will make a big difference (ps wiki gives 50M-130M killed for the flu).

apart from all this stopping of the hostilities will lead in a quick improve of medical conditions because the men no longer need to be stacked together in cramped & humid conditions (trenches), plus that the men are under far less stress, which also heightens their resistance to disease.

Its not that the era didn't have other scary diseases http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica

[Richter von Manthofen]

I was away for 2 weeks and no new posts?

[TradeMachine]

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

I was away for 2 weeks and no new posts?

Maybe its hard to the peace offer.

[BlondieBC]

Originally Posted by Richter von Manthofen

I was away for 2 weeks and no new posts?

Originally Posted by TradeMachine

Maybe its hard to the peace offer.

No, its is more that I am taking a break. I was spending too many hours on the board, I started playing a online game again, and other personal issues. For health reason I need to lose 40-50 pounds, so after I spend 2-3 hours per day exercising, play the online game while I do a few post and read the online news, the time used to write the TL has been used up. I plan to come back in a few months to this TL, and I may have a few post in the interim. I basically have the peace deal researched along with the A-H issues, so it is just sitting down and writing it.