The Whale has Wings

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by Reddog794

I'm curious as to how the respective Commonwealth military are going to look after the war. With the more competent British command, there is justifiable amount of faith built up by the Dominions, in the RN, and Army so far. RAF we're still waiting for the third period, game seven break out, but I feel it's coming, they're cracking the German nut of industrial targets. The mutual blitz that went on was a waste of war materials imo.

Could this lead to a more connected, and cohesive Commonwealth Armed Forces? The question of the Royal Marines growing, could be implemented by having a Royal Marine contingent on every Commonwealth naval vessel. However it need a trade off somewhere...

It certainly seems possible, with a successful defence of the Empire/Commonwealth there's no impetus to question the current arrangements. The post war Commonwealth may be more than a vague talking shop, perhaps something with elements of NATO and the EU(as far as trade goes at least).

[perfectgeneral]

Even more marines would not mean a marine division as the penny packets aboard each ship would lack the divisional support equipment and staff. They would be unused to operating at the divisional scale.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by perfectgeneral

A replacement class of fleet carriers won't be needed until about 1952-1954. Maybe build classes of two every ten years in peace time(1)? Crews and air staff of (6x2,750) 16,500 will still require a large peace time RN. Support and escorts for the carrier groups on top of that of course.

That's EXPENSIVE! There has been a lot of talk-talk-talk on this TL that has ignored four basic problems the RN would face postwar.

1) Naval construction plans that seemed to assume that the Labour Party would never see office again. Or if they did, that they would somehow be every bit as imperialistic and martial as the Tories.

2) The wrong-headed idea that emerged postwar that "all surface naval combatants were obsolete following the development of the Bomb."

3) That there was plenty of $$$ to maintain essentially supercarriers at a cost of 1,000,000,000 pounds a crack indefinitely.

4) That this could be afforded AND support a fleet of Polaris SSBNs and then Tridents to follow.

This is all WAY beyond the scope of this TL, of course. But I thought a little reality check was necessary.

[DD951]

Originally Posted by perfectgeneral

The Escort Carrier does the light carrier's most likely role, only cheaper and in a form that can be re-roled to a merchant ship after the war. The U-boat war needs all the escort/MAC carriers that can be built. ITTL the RN has enough fleet carriers and knows from Audacious class experience that bigger is better for fleet carriers. If any replacements are built they will be more Audacious class. Perhaps with novel features added (deck edge lifts) or an even larger class (adapted from the started hulls). The thinking was that five peacetime fleet carriers would be plenty. Production will be more about merchant shipping, large infantry/mechanised/tank transport/amphibious ships, MAC carriers, Escort Destroyers and maybe fleet ASW and AAA Destroyers.

Troop/vehicle carriers might have ferry roles post war in mind.

You might even get some work start on escort destroyer designs that can be converted to peacetime roles. I'm thinking of the Loch/Bay and River class frigates. These might be adapted to survey or mine sweeping use after the war to clear shipping lanes.

Areas of complaints raised:


Adding the greater electronic requirements, ships will have to be larger where possible.

IOTL 26 Ruler class were ordered and built as lend-lease from the USA. If later light carriers are not built and a dedicated production facility set up, how many Ruler class or Campania class (with post war reefer potential) could be built in Glasgow, Belfast and the North East?

So a light carrier is a little larger and faster? It is neither fish nor fowl. Sixteen light carriers or twice as many escort carriers that will have some commercial value after the war (unlike the lights). twice as many escorted convoys. Twice as effective. Escort carriers can still fulfil the strike role, adding to air power where superiority has already been assured by land based air and/or large fleet carriers. They can also act as aircraft transporters. Quick to build and good enough. The hull protection/floatation system has proven effective. If six Audacious class fleet carriers are all completed how many would the RN need of the older designs post war? Most threats will have been negated by then. Even six Audacious indicates a spare. A maintenance and training carrier to the same hull form?

It seems that the Light carriers are ahead of OTL and slips will be spare for MAC ships soon anyway (all the more reason to make them peace-time convertible).


A replacement class of fleet carriers won't be needed until about 1952-1954. Maybe build classes of two every ten years in peace time? Crews and air staff of (6x2,750) 16,500 will still require a large peace time RN. Support and escorts for the carrier groups on top of that of course.

Whether the escort carrier can have any use as a merchant ship post-war depends on what it was based on- if it was a converted merchant hull, such as the assorted US C3 & T2 conversions or the one-offs the RN built on their own, then it could be converted into a merchant ship post-war.

However, if it was designed from the keel up as a CVE, such as the US Casablanca & Commencement Bay classes, then that won't be possible, & you're stuck with a bunch of mostly useless hulls- with those classes, other than a handful that were retained for ASW work (until planes became too big), hosting Marine squadrons for CAS in the Korean War, early experimental LPH's, or aircraft ferries, they were a collection of nearly 100 worthless ships that sat in mothballs for 15-20 years, eating maintenance funds from the budget until they were sold for scrap.

Don't recall if AD's really gone into any specifics of the British CVE design of TTL other than saying that they used engines salvaged from small WW1 destroyers scrapped in the 1930s (which probably isn't something one would want in a freighter due to fuel consumption & maintenance issues.)

On the other hand, the CVLs will have some use in the post-war fleet, especially since TTL's designs seem closer to the OTL Centaur than the Collosus/Majestics of OTL- there's secondary roles such as being an ASW carrier or helicopter assault ship that they could fill if an older fleet carrier such as Ark Royal or Formidable would be excessive or too expensive to run for that job, while being better able to handle post-war aircraft. Plus, as was done with quite a few of the OTL CVLs, they could be sold off to Dominions & other friendly powers looking to upgrade their navies with war surplus but for whom a full-on fleet carrier would be too expensive to buy or run

[Simon]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

2) The wrong-headed idea that emerged postwar that "all surface naval combatants were obsolete following the development of the Bomb."

Que? Later on certainly, in the 50s and a lot of 60s they were still maintaining large numbers of ships in the reserves - eating up cash and manpower for little if any benefit. At the start of the 50s they had nearly 300 various types of ships tied up there ranging from battleships and fleet carriers all the way down to anti-submarine escorts and minesweepers. I'd have to dig out some other books to get the exact 1960s numbers.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Simon

Que? Later on certainly, in the 50s and a lot of 60s they were still maintaining large numbers of ships in the reserves - eating up cash and manpower for little if any benefit. At the start of the 50s they had nearly 300 various types of ships tied up there ranging from battleships and fleet carriers all the way down to anti-submarine escorts and minesweepers. I'd have to dig out some other books to get the exact 1960s numbers.

Que?

Check out the postwar B-36 controversy and the cancellation of the USS United States for an idea of where this problem lay. The "idea" that surface warships were obsolete was an obsession for many USAAC/USAF strategic bomber generals from Hiroshima to the detonating of the first Soviet Bomb and the start of the Korean War. IOW, 1945-1950.

[El Pip]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

Check out the postwar B-36 controversy and the cancellation of the USS United States for an idea of where this problem lay. The "idea" that surface warships were obsolete was an obsession for many USAAC/USAF strategic bomber generals from Hiroshima to the detonating of the first Soviet Bomb and the start of the Korean War. IOW, 1945-1950.

Yes but that was the US. You may have noticed this TL is, in fact, about the UK.

More seriously who actually thinks Japan is going to last long enough for nukes to be deployed? At this rate Japan will end up with no oil, under complete blockade and being regularly visited by the RAF and USAAF, in that order, sometime in 1943. Even if the Allies don't go for an invasion, can Japan really survive two years under blockade, will to win is all very well but there are limits.

So no nukes in the Far East and I can't see how the butterflies can seriously (or at all) extend the war in Europe so no nukes there. Plus of course this is before you allow for the possible delays in actually building a nuke due to the weaker Anglo-American co-operation TTL, so I would expect the actual bomb to arrive later than OTL.

With no actual combat use it has to be a harder sell to claim they've made every other weapon obsolete. Maybe the tests will be enough, but frankly I'd be surprised.

[Astrodragon]

Jan 28th

It is decided to make the remaining two brigades of 18th Division available for use in the DEI/Borneo area, as they have completed training in the local conditions. The 51st Division will undergo similar training while acting as Alexander's emergency reserve. Given the difficulty in moving around Borneo, mainly infantry will be used, but it is hoped to quickly build up the Imperial force on the island up to some 5,000 men. Given the small size of the Japanese landings, it is hoped this will be sufficient, so long as sufficient coastal transport can be obtained.. Alexander also allocates them half the landing craft that came with the commandoes, to use off the coast for transport - in order to supplement this, available coastal shipping and vessels are being commandeered in Borneo, and acquired in southern Malaya. While the eastern side of the island is looking problematical, the western and southern areas are, so far, under Allied control.

In the north of Malaya, 7th Australian division, backed by tanks, attacks the Japanese positions in a limited attack. Given the damage to the Thai railroad clearly visible in photographs, Blamey intends to see just how bad the Japanese supply situation is. The attack manages to penetrate some 5 miles before increasingly intense counterattacks bring it to a halt. As there is now an armour reserve at Singapore, Blamey informs Alexander he intends to press the attack with Australian and Indian troops the next day as well, to see how fragile the Japanese defence is.

At Rastenburg Hitler decorates the ace pilot Adolf Galland with the Diamonds to the Knight's Cross. Goering is appalled that the jewels are paste.

The Japanese land on Rossel Island, the easternmost island of the Louisade archipelago. The island is located about 490 miles east-southeast of Port Moresby, New Guinea, and 420 miles west-southwest of Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands, an ideal position to block shipping from either point. The Japanese immediately begin building an airfield.

Jan 29th

The British offensive in Malaya continues, backed by the RAF who both attack the Japanese airfield and the troops on the ground. The Japanese air force return the compliment. Aided by fresh Indian troops and a further armoured attack, the Australians advance another 3 miles, causing a serious dent in the Japanese defensive line. One so severe in fact that overnight the Japanese retire to new positions, leaving a noticeable bulge in their defence line. The Australians also retire slightly in order to give them a better line to hold. While the attack has been successful, the fanatical defence the Japanese have put up is worrying to the staff, who see it as making the re-conquest of northern Malaya expensive - infantry casualties have been high.

Based on the results, the most effective operations seem to be by the tanks, for which the Japanese have no real answer. However the need to use the available armoured force to reinforce the defence lines means there is no substantial reserve (even allowing for the reinforcements on Pillar). The staff suggest that unless the Japanese get substantial reinforcements themselves, the best plan might be to wait for the Australian's armoured division, currently packing up in North Africa ready to move, arrives to be the centre of a new attack intended to break the Japanese defence and push them back into Thailand. Given that the need to use his forces to help protect the DEI is looking more and more likely, Alexander and Blamey agree that planning will start on this option. This is a disappointment to them, but just pushing the Japanese back to the Thai border won't do much to change the situation in the north; unless the force is available to press on, they consider it best to stay in position and let the Japanese blunt their attacks on prepared defences. The continuing need to bolster the Dutch forces is a drain, and Alexander again asks when US ground forces will be available to help.

Japanese General Headquarters orders the Navy to secure Lae and Salamaua, New Guinea and then Tulagi, Solomon Islands. The Army and Navy are ordered to combine their efforts and seize Port Moresby, New Guinea. Both Navy and Army staff officers foresee problems.

The Japanese land at Badoeng Island and Mampawan on Celebes Island in the DEI.
The Combined Chiefs of Staff establish the ANZAC Area, covering ocean expanses between Australia, New Zealand, and the French territory of New Caledonia in the New Hebrides Islands. This area is to be under U.S. naval command

Five-inch (12.7 cm) projectiles containing radio-proximity fuses are test fired at the Naval Proving Ground, Dahlgren, Virginia, and 52 percent of the fuses functioned satisfactorily by proximity to water at the end of a 5-mile trajectory. This performance, obtained with samples selected to simulate a production lot, confirmed that the radio proximity fuse would greatly increase the effectiveness of anti-aircraft batteries and led to immediate small scale production

Jan 30th

The Japanese invade 314 square mile Ambon Island in the DEI which has the second largest naval base in the East Indies. The defenders include Dutch troops and the Australian 2/21 Battalion plus supporting troops. During the night of 30 January two Japanese landings are launched; the 1st Kure Special Landing Force lands at Hitu-Iama and the 228th Infantry lands on the southern coast of Laitimor. The defenders are at a disadvantage to contest the landings, only a few Dutch detachments were in the area. At Hitu-Iama on the north coast the defending infantry and machine-gun crews are quickly overwhelmed and bridges on the road leading to the town of Paso are left intact allowing the Japanese to speedily advance south across the Hitu Peninsula. Other landings occurred around Hutumori; the Japanese split westward to the town, and northward to Paso using captured Ambonese compelled to act as guides.

Jan 31st

Two small transport ships leave Singapore bound for Darwin with some of the supplies from the Pillar convoy. This includes additional AA guns and material to expand the capabilities of the air base there, such as torpedoes to allow Beaufighters to operate anti-shipping strikes. In addition two transport planes fly out today with spares for the radar at Darwin, which is down to its last tubes for some equipment.

The U.S. Military Mission to USSR, which is to advise and assist Russians on lend-lease matters, arrives at Basra in Iraq; the group subsequently proceeds to Tehran, Iran, where they establish their headquarters.

New Zealand continues to dig in for war by introducing air-raid shelter regulations, and inviting women to join the Emergency Precaution Service as fire-watchers. All men must register for the Emergency Defence Corps. So far the sheep are not being called up.

On Ambon Island 2,000 Japanese troops attack Laha late in the afternoon; they are repulsed by an outnumbered platoon of Australians on the northeast of the airfield.

Task Force Eleven (Vice Admiral Brown), formed around the aircraft carrier USS Lexington , departs Pearl Harbor to cover the retirement of TF 8 (Vice Admiral Halsey) and TF 17 (Rear Admiral Fletcher) from the Marshall and Gilbert Islands.

In preparation for a bombing raid on Japan, Captain Donald B. Duncan,USN, flies to Norfolk, Virginia to make arrangements with Captain Marc A. Mitscher, USN, captain of the USS Hornet, to prepare to have three B-25 Mitchell medium bombers hoisted aboard on the next day for trial takeoffs.

Major General Eaker is designated Commanding General, Bomber Command, U.S. Army Forces in British Isles (USAFBI) and ordered to proceed to the UK.

[iopgod]

Hmm. Looks as if the Japanese air raid on Darwin might be reduced in severity, and that planning for the Dolittle raid is going ahead.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by iopgod

Hmm. Looks as if the Japanese air raid on Darwin might be reduced in severity, and that planning for the Dolittle raid is going ahead.

The Doolittle Raid was FDR's own personal baby, and he was going to see it go forward as long as it was technically possible to do so. At one point, even B-17s were considered (using rocket assisted take-offs!). But the rate of acceleration was too great for the airframes to take.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by El Pip

Yes but that was the US. You may have noticed this TL is, in fact, about the UK. (1)

More seriously who actually thinks Japan is going to last long enough for nukes to be deployed? At this rate Japan will end up with no oil, under complete blockade and being regularly visited by the RAF and USAAF, in that order, sometime in 1943. Even if the Allies don't go for an invasion, can Japan really survive two years under blockade, will to win is all very well but there are limits.

So no nukes in the Far East and I can't see how the butterflies can seriously (or at all) extend the war in Europe so no nukes there. Plus of course this is before you allow for the possible delays in actually building a nuke due to the weaker Anglo-American co-operation TTL,(2) so I would expect the actual bomb to arrive later than OTL.(3)

With no actual combat use it has to be a harder sell to claim they've made every other weapon obsolete. Maybe the tests will be enough, but frankly I'd be surprised.(4)

1) With a little help from their friends.

2) Not really. If there is one thing you don't skimp on in WWII, it is The Bomb. Besides, wouldn't weaker cooperation between the US and UK on Manhatten do far more to weaken Soviet atomic efforts, rather than American? Besides, the UK going solo on the Bomb (to the point of procurement in any reasonable timeframe) DURING WWII is ASB, patriotic chest beating not withstanding.

3) See 2

4) I wouldn't. Not considering what happened OTL. Not when the newsreels showed the world the first atomic tests at sea displaying the old battleship Arkansas being lifted hundreds of feet up out of the water and perpendicular to the surface of the sea. I didn't say these beliefs about "obsolescence" were RIGHT. Merely that they existed.

[Faralis]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Goering is appalled that the jewels are paste.

Here is a man with well chosen priorities

[DD951]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

(snip)

At Rastenburg Hitler decorates the ace pilot Adolf Galland with the Diamonds to the Knight's Cross. Goering is appalled that the jewels are paste.

Interesting choice of priorities & material shortages there...

Task Force Eleven (Vice Admiral Brown), formed around the aircraft carrier USS Lexington , departs Pearl Harbor to cover the retirement of TF 8 (Vice Admiral Halsey) and TF 17 (Rear Admiral Fletcher) from the Marshall and Gilbert Islands.

Hmm, did we miss something about what Halsey & Fletcher were up to over the last few days in those parts?

[Shevek23]

There's no reason to think the MP is going to go faster than it did OTL. In fact, with Britain in a stronger position, it could be that there is less inclination on Churchill's part to hand over as much of Tube Alloys as he did OTL; with less data and people moving to Alamogordo, the US effort may be a bit behind.

Since OTL the Bomb was just barely ready to administer the coup de grace to Japan, and Germany surrendered a considerable time before the Trinity test, it seems entirely likely the war will be over before any of the Allies has anything to test, let alone deploy.

So then the question is, does anyone--Americans, Britons, or Russians--go ahead and continue the development program once peace is concluded?

General Groves will certainly want that; he stepped on a lot of toes pushing his top-secret project forward and even a successful bomb test might not save his career, but just mothballing the whole thing will sink him for sure.

OTOH I am not so convinced the Soviets needed to steal US and British secrets to be capable of their own bomb project--what they needed was resources and motivation. The biggest tip-off the Western Allies gave the Soviets OTL was Truman quietly informing Stalin at Potsdam that the US would be shortly using a weapon of devastating power on the Japanese. The big thing was the demonstration that efforts to develop an A-bomb would pay off; there is no way either Western power could have the capability of making the bombs without the Soviets, with their spy network, knowing we have it. Knowing that, their ability to steal US and British secrets as to the details of how to do it is a bonus for them but not strictly necessary--I believe Soviet science was more than capable of putting the pieces together entirely on their own, once Stalin, Beria, and so forth know for a fact it can work and therefore the considerable diversion of badly needed resources will pay off.

By that same token though, if both Western powers just wrap it up and put it on the shelf without following through on an actual test, it might seem a lot more dubious to the Kremlin.

So that's the question--are either Americans or Britons going to go ahead with their projects after the war, to the point of actually testing a device? If they do that the Russians will know no matter how security-obsessed either nation might become in this matter, then it's only a matter of time before the Soviets have their own Bombs. If they don't--

Well I find it hard to believe that after so much effort, the developments just stop cold. Too many top-notch physicists and other first-rank scientists in the USA would know about it; the argument might be made that if the country doesn't go ahead at least on a slow track toward the conclusion there will be no enforcing secrecy restrictions on their gossiping, or at least implicitly tipping their hand, about what the heck they were doing in the war.

Britain is another matter; while I expect the Commonwealth to be better off after this war than OTL they still will be rather straitened and even if there is no transAtlantic brain drain whatsoever the UK is just a smaller base for operations.

And if both Western powers do indeed file and forget their atomic programs, I do think the Russians will get around to it eventually, perhaps decades later but by and by, considering they will probably have intelligence indicating roughly how close the Western nations came.

The question of who has what bombs when then hinges largely on what the situation is with MP in the ATL when Japan finally collapses (or Germany does, considering that here the Germans might hold out longer) and what sort of mood US leadership is in and what sort of resources are available, considering that the urgency and cover of wartime crash projects are now gone.

We have to wait and see about that. But the odds are, no A-bomb goes off in anger in this war. Peacetime testing, even if comes before 1945 ends, won't have the same impact.

[Simreeve]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

New Zealand continues to dig in for war by introducing air-raid shelter regulations, and inviting women to join the Emergency Precaution Service as fire-watchers. All men must register for the Emergency Defence Corps. So far the sheep are not being called up.

Not even by the Catering Corps?

[Ramp-Rat]

No the sheep will not be called up. Standard British Empire policy is you are not allowed to take your girlfriend to war with you.

[Astrodragon]

I have ideas on where the bomb programs are going to go, but as to what happens at the end of the war..

It all depends on whether the bomb is ready in time to be used. If it isn't, then the program(s) will almost certainly continue (by that point, they will know the device is practical, and certainly cant just hope no-one else builds one), but would slow down.

As to Russia, while the stolen data helped speed things up a bit, the most important data is knowing it can be done. Designing an A-bomb isnt hard - building it is harder, as it requires resources and skilled engineers, but Russia has those (as long as it wants to give the bomb priority)

The likely bomb options at present are either a Manhatten project as OTL, or a joint UK/Canada/US one as was considered.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Ramp-Rat

No the sheep will not be called up. Standard British Empire policy is you are not allowed to take your girlfriend to war with you.

No wonder NZ didnt supply many troops...

[Alratan]

There's on thing that's essential to the Soviet atomic bomb project, and that's access to the Czech uranium mines. If the changes to the European theater are enough to bring the Czech republic into the western zone (quite possible given how much more of a kicking the Italians have taken), then the Soviet bomb may be delayed by five years or so.

[Ash's Boomstick]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

No wonder NZ didnt supply many troops...

Maybe they can be folded into the welsh regiments :P