The Whale has Wings

[High Plains Drifter]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

USAAF Far East Air Force B-17's ... suffer heavy losses but sink 4 ships.

... transports headed for Balikapang are intercepted by the USN cruiser and destroyer force. They find 12 transports, guarded by a light cruiser and seven destroyers.

Shortly before the US force entered the bay, a Dutch submarine torpedoed a 7,000 ton transport ...

... the destroyers were able to torpedo 5 transports, one more being set on fire by their guns, while the Boise left three more blazing and not under control (two of these later had to be abandoned and scuttled).

Amazing, long term devastating results.

IOTL, how late into the war before the IJN sufferred a single day's loss of shipping like this?

[Astrodragon]

The issues of the daily needs of a division is a very difficult figure, even real-world values and estimates differ markedly.

I believe the 700-800t/day figure was for a german division in Europe, which would include POL, for example. The Parachute units I believe could fight on 400-ish tons (but with no artillery, which tends to be the supply killer in terms of tons)

Japanese units would have been considered very light in some areas compared to European armies, but they still had artillery (if not to the scale, for example, of the British army). So I will probably assume a figure of about 500t/division/day as 'working estimate'.

The loss of the railway is going to hurt, and its a shame the British arent able to take as much advantage of it as they would like due to events further south. However every day the Japanese dont push south or west helps Auchinleck; come April, the monsoon will make Burma safe, if the Japanese arent in possession of the major rivers by then they have no hope for 6 months. 6 months gives the British plenty of time to make the country safe from anythin the Japanese can get over the 'roads' in east Burma, so short of a major amphibious action they can concentrate on Malaya. In fact Alexander is already ordering any new troops to Singapore, Burma is just getting the rest of the planned divisions buildup, plus a Chinese division.

The big problem for Britain is, ironically, not their own areas, but the slow collapse of the Dutch in the DEI, and the worry this causes in Australia.

[hipper]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Jan 21st

After a trip by 'roads' so bad that more than a third of the vehicles hadn't made it, and which left many of the tough Ghurkas sick, some 300 men arrives outside Sandakan. Stopping short of the town, they find that in fact they seem to outnumber the Japanese, who seem quite thin on the ground. Typically they decide to attack immediately, and as soon as it is dark they infiltrate the town. Shortly after the night is disturbed by gunshots, grenades and the Ghurka's bloodcurdling battle cry. In a confused action that lasts some hours, the Ghurkas hunt down and kill the Japanese troops, many of whom were initially caught by surprise. The Ghurkas themselves take over a 100 casualties, but by the morning report the town in allied hands again.

I dont think there was in fact a road between Jessleton & Sandakhan in 1940 all communications would be by sea or air.

see here for a recreation of the Sandakhan death march - its quite informative about the difficulties involved in traveling overland in Borneo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9TCh...eature=related

cheers

[hipper]

After World War II, the British colonial administration embarked on the reconstruction of all roads. By 1949, the Governor was able to report that there were 130 miles of metalled roads with asphalt surface, 23 miles of "other metalled roads", 225 miles of earth roads and 578 miles of "bridle paths" (6ft to 8ft wide, where ponies would carry rubber sheets and other produce).

In the late 1950's, a significant effort was made to connect Kota Kinabalu with Papar by road and this was completed in 1964. After independence within Malaysia, road communications became a top priority so that by the 1970's, Kota Kinabalu was linked by road to Kudat in the north, to Keningau via Tambunan in the interior, and to Ranau and Sandakan on the East Coast. Sandakan was linked with Lahad Datu, Sempoma and Tawau


I suspect the troops would have to walk :-)

[sloreck]

During the US Civil War the Union forces were able to put up some rather stout and amazing timber bridges very quickly indeed. Of course there was a dedicated engineering force that got very good at this, led by a very able general (Herman Haupt) with extensive RR experience. At least THEORETICALLY this means the Japanese with 1941 technology should be able to duplicate this...but I expect the engineering assets available are limited and don't have much RR experience. Conscript labor is inefficient at best, and given the way the Japanese treated conscript labor and their current policy of essentially taking all food from the civilians (families of the laborers) I would expect progress to be slow....

While the Japanese are making progress in the DEI it's already way behind OTL, and oil fields that are taken are going to be more thoroughly trashed. Merchant shipping losses already mean tonnage to move "stuff" & personnel to fix these fields will be slower coming as the needs of the military for immediate supplies will take up a higher percentage of a now smaller merchant marine. Because the IJN (and the army as well) are fighting at a higher pace than OTL, it means the stock of POL - especially aviation gasoline - is being consumed faster and the date when the tank hits empty is going to come sooner than the prewar estimates (which were roughly 18 months from PH).

[perfectgeneral]

Originally Posted by hipper

I dont think there was in fact a road between Jessleton & Sandakhan in 1940 all communications would be by sea or air.

see here for a recreation of the Sandakhan death march - its quite informative about the difficulties involved in traveling overland in Borneo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9TCh...eature=related

cheers

http://www.awm.gov.au/exhibitions/st...w2sandakan.gif
I must agree that an overland route seems impossible, no A4 being available at the time.

[Astrodragon]

I knew the 'road' net in Borneo was poor, I didnt realise it was non-existant!

I guess the Ghurkas are going to have to swim...

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

I knew the 'road' net in Borneo was poor, I didnt realise it was non-existant!

I guess the Ghurkas are going to have to swim...

That will just make them angrier when they reach the Japanese...

[Astrodragon]

Jan 23rd

The Japanese 55th Regimental Group, numbering about 5300 troops, lands at Rabaul on New Britain Island while the Maizuru Special Naval Landing Force lands at Kavieng on New Ireland Island. The small Australian garrison at Rabaul numbers 76 officers and 1314 other ranks. The garrison is unable to stop the landings, and after initial resistance retire back into the Jungle in the hope a relief operation will be undertaken.

Elements of the Japanese Fourth Fleet invade Kieta on Bougainville (in the Soloman islands) without opposition.

With the Philippines effectively under Japanese control it is almost impossible for Alexander to intervene effectively in the eastern DEI due to lack of air cover - the Dutch air force, though fighting bravely, is short of modern aircraft, and he still needs to defend against the considerable Japanese air force presence in Thailand. The worry is that if the Japanese advance far enough into the DEI they will uncover Australia, meaning more forces will be needed to protect the north of the country. He asks the Dutch to prepare some airstrips so he can deploy torpedo-carrying Beaufighters further forward, although the RAF is worried about the lack of protection on the ground, which has so far shown to be inadequate. He also expects to receive a number of Wellingtons suitable for long range torpedo attacks (already on the way from the Middle East), but their ground support will arrive on Pillar. He also asks if the USAAF can deploy any more fighters to contest the Japanese.

Despite the losses to the USN night attack, the remaining Japanese transports unload their troops at Balikpapan. However due to their heavy losses en route they go no further than the town itself while they wait for an additional convoy. A second convoy passes through the Molucca passage to land troops on Kendari on the east coast of Celebes island, capturing the airfield there.

TF 6814 departs New York for New Zealand and then to New Caledonia. This unit with other additions will become the Americal Division.

Two RAF Hurricane squadrons arrive in Sumatra. Conditions are described as 'primitive even by North African standards'.

In Manila Japan sets up a puppet government, in which three-quarters of the pre-war senate agree to serve.

Jan 24th

400 Ghurkas, who have travelled around the coast of Borneo on a couple of rather ancient ships found in the harbour after the Japanese defeat at Labuan, finally make an arrival off Sandakan. Given the conditions of the voyage, and the fact that few Ghurkas can swim, the troops insisted in immediately offloading and seeking to attack the Japanese. Aided by information from some of the local police who had escaped the Japanese invasion, as soon as it is dark they infiltrate the town. Shortly after the night is disturbed by gunshots, grenades and the Ghurka's bloodcurdling battle cry. In a confused action that lasts some hours, the Ghurkas hunt down and kill the Japanese troops, many of whom were initially caught by surprise. The Ghurkas themselves take over a 100 casualties, but by the morning report the town in allied hands again.

The attack northwards into Burma halts; the British defenders are not certain if this was just a probing attack, or if in fact the damage to the rail system has caused the Japanese to become more cautious. It had been intended to evacuate the British force by sea, but as the attack seems to have stopped for the moment, this is postponed. Alexander expects any serious attack to come in further north (despite the appalling road system available to support it). There is also a small possibility that the force in the south of the 'handle' may be a possible route into Thailand if the Japanese can be pushed back from Malaya.

The Japanese Eastern Invasion Force lands at Kendari on Celebes Island. A USN seaplane tender (destroyer), USS Childs, is leaving Kendari harbor and spots the Japanese. A rain squall obscures the seaplane tender for a while, allowing her to avoid two Japanese destroyers. She is attacked by six Japanese aircraft at 0800 hours but managed to escape to the south. By the evening, Kendari is fully occupied by the Japanese. Most of the Dutch troops are captured by Japanese; some fight a guerilla war for a short period, while others try to escape to safer parts of archipelago. Kendari Airdrome is considered the best in the Netherlands East Indies and was immediately put into operation by the Japanese 21st Air Flotilla. The loss is a blow to the allies, who had been hoping to build the forces at the airfield up once ground troops could be found to make it secure, but the rapid fall of the Phillipines has not allowed them time to find the required men.

USAAf B-17's based at Malang, Java, and Dutch Martin Model 139WHs and Brewster 339s (the export version of the Buffalo) bomb invasion shipping, sinking a number of transports.

On Bataan, II Corps begins disengaging and withdrawing combat troops. The Japanese maintain pressure on the Philippine Division and attack the covering force, but the bulk of the troops withdraw successfully. The situation in the I Corps area is deteriorating rapidly. The 1st Division, Philippine Army, exhausted by prolonged fighting along the main line of resistance and critically in need of supplies and ammunition, remains under pressure.

As a result of the capture of the first Australian territory by the Japanese (the islands of New Britain and New Ireland off Australian New Guinea, the Combines Chiefs of staff put the port of Darwin under the command of ABDA. Unless the Japanese carrier fleet can be eliminated or at least reduced, the RN does not have the strength to defend Singapore/Ceylon and conduct operations off New Guinea, especially as the location of the Japanese fleet is often undetected until an attack - it is pointed out that there is a lot of the Pacific ocean to hide in. There is also the problem of keeping a large force at sea in the area, Darwin, while useful, is hardly a major fleet base. The best suggestion at present is more air power, in particular reconnaissance planes. After pressure on London, the RAF agree to release 12 ASV-equipped Stirlings from Coastal Command - with the current preoccupation of the U-boats off the US coast, these can be spared. It is hoped their range and radar will allow better coverage north of Australia, especially if the US can provide additional Catalinas.

There is some good news for the RAF when they ask about the possibility of more fighters. The Mk8 Spitfire is now in full production, and in addition to its increased performance has a much longer range that the earlier models. While the Spitfires are needed in Europe to face the Me109's and Fw190's (and in any case isn't considered suitable for much of the Far East due to its relatively delicate undercarriage), this means that it will be replacing the fighter version of the Whirlwind (it is considerably cheaper to produce). Park has been talking with his old mentor Dowding, and the suggestion is to refurbish the Whirlwinds as the Spitfires replace them, and also modify some to the earlier reconnaissance version. This will give the RAF in Malaya a long-distance fighter, as well as a very fast reconnaissance aircraft. The planes have enough range to fly out themselves, but this is delayed for a few weeks so the equipment needed to support them can be assembled and sent out. Park is promised the first squadrons before the end of February.

US Marines land on the island of Samoa to protect it from the Japanese. While it is agreed protection of the islands between Australia and the US is important, there is growing criticism of what is seen as an overly defensive mindset that is deploying the available troops far from any likely Japanese action, as well as tying up the carrier forces on convoy escort duties.

[Garrison]

For the Allied point of view this looks bad but the Japanese are spreading themselves might thin with all these attacks. What the British really need is a chance to engage those Japanese carriers; if the KB can at least be put out of the picture for a while, if not destroyed, then the entire Japanese position will unravel.
Are the IJN bold/crazy enough to come within reach of what is now 4 RN fleet carriers? They don't know how many Somerville has of course but it would still be a gamble...

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Garrison

For the Allied point of view this looks bad but the Japanese are spreading themselves might thin with all these attacks. What the British really need is a chance to engage those Japanese carriers; if the KB can at least be put out of the picture for a while, if not destroyed, then the entire Japanese position will unravel.
Are the IJN bold/crazy enough to come within reach of what is now 4 RN fleet carriers? They don't know how many Somerville has of course but it would still be a gamble...

Somerville of course has his own problems, he has to keep Singapore covered, he cant sail all his carriers off unles KB is actually spotted. Both sides are worried about engaging in the DEI, there is lots of land based air around, the RN has to worry about Singapore, the IJN has to worry about the USN.
Expect lots of cautious manouvering unless one or the other sides thinks they have a clear advantage...

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Somerville of course has his own problems, he has to keep Singapore covered, he cant sail all his carriers off unles KB is actually spotted. Both sides are worried about engaging in the DEI, there is lots of land based air around, the RN has to worry about Singapore, the IJN has to worry about the USN.
Expect lots of cautious manouvering unless one or the other sides thinks they have a clear advantage...

But then the Japanese do have that desire to seek the decisive battle. They might talk themselves into thinking they have such an advantage, or try an clever Midway style ambush and have it fall foul of codebreakers and overcomplicating things.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Garrison

But then the Japanese do have that desire to seek the decisive battle. They might talk themselves into thinking they have such an advantage, or try an clever Midway style ambush and have it fall foul of codebreakers and overcomplicating things.

Of course there are two problems with the decisive battle.

First is which navy do you have it with first?? They are in completely different areas...

Second, the theory does rather require some sort of target that the enemy is willing to have the battle over. For the RN, this would logically be either Singapore or Australia. For the US it would be the PI (well, they dont seem interested.. or Hawaii.
But they are running around supporting landings atm, makes it difficult to concentrate the fleet....

[Tyg]

It's difficult to keep in mind that the war with Japan is still barely a month and a half old! So far, the Japanese have been fighting (and struggling) against (pretty much) only what the Allies had in theater at the time, not what they can fully bring to bear.

The realization that the Allies are rapidly replacing their losses is going to be a most unpleasant revelation for the Japanese, even if they attempt to remain in denial.

[Peg Leg Pom]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

Actually, this was indeed part of the Military-Industrial Complex that Eisenhower denounced in his final address to the nation, the incestuous nature of senior military officers and the procurement process. There are laws at the lower levels, such as the Lincoln law, and the very expensive anti-sub-subcontracting laws, but that's about it.

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised. It's not only the torpedos that were crippled by politics. In the First World War the US Army was saddled with perhaps the worst light machine gun ever to see sevice, the French Chauchat LMG because the Chief of the Ordanance Department General William Crozier for some reason disliked Colonel Isaac Newton Lewis the designer of the very successful Lewis Gun and refused to have it issued to the army. He even made the US Marines in France give up their Lewis Guns and use the Chauchat.

Nice to see a General who doesn't let mens lives get in the way of a personal grudge.

[Ramp-Rat]

Perfectgeneral, I bow to your superior knowledge regarding tonnages and capacity on Siamese railways. I was using the figures I used more as an exemplar than as fact, I didn’t know the facts. I do think that it wouldn’t be too hard to up the tonnage figures, if the Japanese were prepared to divert all available rolling stock to just this one line. And you are right 20 mph is a best speed, not what would be archived in reality. However IMSR, the French in 1914 mobilized, and set the speed of their troop trains at 10 mph.

With regard to tempory bridges, timber pile is not the best solution, nor is trestle ether, the best solution is to replace the damaged bridges with steel bridges, ether by repairing what had been damaged. Replacing with undamaged bridges from other parts of the network, or new bridges imported from Japan. However timber pile is the quickest and easiest to do with the labour and tools available. Once you have a service up and running, then you can look at putting in trestles, as a stop gap until repairs or replacements can be completed.

This is not in anyway the most efficient way or doing things, but it is by far the quickest. And that from the point of view of the military is what matters. There will be a shortage of qualified Japanese railway engineers to oversee the work. But there will be some in country, as they were at the time seen to be a vital part of the military establishment. And all major armies at this time had a dedicated railways unit, trained to take over and maintain an enemies rail network, never enough of them, but when does ab army ever admit it has enough of anything.

As for the rest of the events ITTL, the Japanese have spread themselves very thin, which worked IOTL against the weaker and badly lead force in place then. Now against better combat experienced troops, who are well lead, better supported and far better lead. The Japanese are soon going to find themselves in a whole world of hurt. That is only going to get worse, as the days go by.

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

I wonder when the USAAF will stop using their B-17s to "drop a marble on a mouse from four stories up" and start using them to hit the Japanese ON THE GROUND where at least they can be hit?

It looks like if the KB turns west the first to learn of it (the hard way) will be the American contingent of ABDA.

I'd say the US is doing fine so far, compared to OTL.

B-17s sank 4 transports.

The cruiser/destroyer force sank 8 transports and support ships, the only damage being to Boise.

OTL Boise was forced to leave the area due to running aground, and took no further part in the Pacific in 1942 or 1943, so if she has to go stateside to repair the Long Lance hit, not a crucial loss.

[MattII]

It occurs to me that that Thai railway could become a real bane for the Japanese, oh they'll have guards on all the bridges and cuttings for sure, but all it takes is one log across the tracks, or the tracks blown up on an isolated stretch and boom, one train down.

[DD951]

Originally Posted by Hyperion

OTL Boise was forced to leave the area due to running aground, and took no further part in the Pacific in 1942 or 1943, so if she has to go stateside to repair the Long Lance hit, not a crucial loss.

Not quite right about Boise playing no further role in the Pacific during the next 2 years- she was at Cape Esperance & scored several hits on the Japanese force before taking an underwater hit in the forward magazines from an 8" AP shell (probably from Kinugasa)- the only known instance of the diving shell trick working in combat- which caused much of the ammunition & powder to explode, wrecking the 3 forward turrets & causing a massive fire that burned out much of the forward part of the ship.

[jlckansas]

Running railroads is a rather specialized item. There was a reason that the Germans, British, Russians, French, Italians and US had Railway operating and maintenance units in the war. You cannot just expect regular supply or engineering troops to run them, the scheduling and maintenance of trains alone was a nightmare on normal tracks let alone the type they had in Thailand. Engineering bridge units could build replacement bridges if they had the equipment to do it but I don't think the IJA had anything like a Bailey bridge unit in the army at the time. You could do it with pontoon bridges if you had the right types available to use, but they are limited in weight and speed that you can do on them.