The Whale has Wings

[MattII]

Yeah but OTOH the Burma railway could never supply enough for Chiang Kai Shek to be a real menace to the Japanese, just enough of a nuisance that they're forced to divert troops.

[Alratan]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

The arguments you present are very logical, but politics =/= logic.

When it comes to the war against Japan, Americans are not looking for proxies, though they are welcome, of course. The American attitude can best be summed up by a line from the best American western of the 1970s, "The Outlaw Josey Wales". The bounty hunter coming after Josey Wales is so determined to destroy Wales that he says: "I don't want to HEAR Wales dead. I want to SEE Wales dead."

Yeah. Americans don't want to read about Chinese armies cutting a swath through the North China Plain, or British fleets bombarding Japanese cities. They want to read about American heavy bombers reducing Japan's wood-and-paper cities to ashes. After Pearl Harbor, America had officially gone postal.

I, unexpectedly, disagree. The China lobby was very powerful and influential at this point, and would have a major hold on policy. It also fits perfectly with the overall Europe First plan, so would be challenging to argue against.

Originally Posted by MattII

Yeah but OTOH the Burma railway could never supply enough for Chiang Kai Shek to be a real menace to the Japanese, just enough of a nuisance that they're forced to divert troops.

You'd be surprised. It actually wouldn't take much to make the Chinese a much, much tougher opponents for the Japanese, given how poorly equipped they were. Remember, iOTL, most of the IJA was deployed in China during World War II, so they don't need to divert troops, just prevent troops that were redeployed from there iOTL from being so. Just look up the 3rd Battle Of Changsha to see what the Chinese were capable of whilst they still had Western supplies. After this, with the Burma Road cut, the pace of Chinese operations collapsed.

[Gannt the chartist]

Yamashita may not realise/bother about his supply state and certainly if he complains about it there is a fair chance he will be replaced by a more aggressive commander who does not care. Something has to happen to change the IJA/IJN mindset – at the moment it’s still going to be offensive minded, prone to beating itself up and if Alex realises this could be cracked dramatically.

A successful defence of the DEI will create a nice turf war in the US. The USN will slip into WPO mode but as Usertron pointed out the quickest way to Japan is through the Phillipines with a converging attack by US forces from Australia and UK from Singapore/DEI. If the Malaya/Burma front goes well quickly then there may actually be more disposable force in SEA than anywhere. I mean comparatively, a full Corps with sea lift in SEA are a massive punch, the same in Europe a big raid.

If anything is happening offensively in 42 early 43 for the WAllies the dominant ground force at least will be UK/CW none of whom will be eager to get involved in a large scale ground war on a continent, been there done that. So people should be thinking more about what Brooke and whoever is 1st Sea Lord and CotAS think rather than Marshall/King. Right now they are the ones with reserves.

Oh and if the US is supplying Singapore it would be across the Atlantic/Indian Ocean using the routes to the UK and Med as far as possible. Who knows it may give rise to the massive Chappatti Bell and Samosa King fast food chains post war.

[Ramp-Rat]

Uesertron2020, you emphasize the difficulties of supplying Singapore, which thus renders it unsuitable as a base for American forces. Sorry but I personally do not see any major difficulty in sending American supplies to Singapore. The world is round, and you do not have to use West Coast ports as the start of your supply chain. Ships sailing from Southern East Coast ports around the Horn and then across the Indian Ocean, would face very few dangers, more like a milk run. And they would only have to be carrying munitions; most of the food required can be sourced from South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. The same ships will return with back loads of strategic materials for American industry.

Nor do I see the long road from Australia being needed, I doubt very much ITTL that the Japanese are going to have the troops or ships for their campaign in what was to become the SWPZ. Yes there is going to be intense political pressure to liberate the Philippines, and FDR will be forced to do something. But why would the American choose to fight there way, island by island to liberate the Philippines. When they can use Singapore as their main base, which has is more than enough room for them there. They can then from advanced bases in Northern Borneo attack the Japanese on the main Island of Luzon, and thus avoid a costly and time consuming campaign.

While I agree there are some questions to be answered about the basing of American submarines in Freemantle in OTL. There is very much a case for basing them out of Singapore, with a top off facility in Northern Borneo, with later an advanced base there. Submarines tended at the time to operate from a submarine depot ship, and all you need for that is a harbour deep enough for her to anchor in. again much of the supplies needed can be sourced locally, with only munitions and engineering supplies needing to come from the US.

Yes there is a lot of bad feeling towards DM, and he is one of those generals that cause people to take a very polarized view. And you are right; it’s very much a case of pot kettle in regard to British comments about him at the time. We had our fair share of incompetents and egotistic fools. Percival in Malay is one who is going to come out of the war with a very different opinion about him than he did in OTL. Seen not as the screw up he was, but as a dam good number two to Alexander, and an effective staff officer.

DM however is going to be in a worse position to the one he was in IOTL. His failure to defend the Philippines will stand in stark contrast to Alexander’s successful defence of Malay. That is assuming this is the way Astrodragon sees and writes the TL. And given events to date in the TL, I for one do not see the Japanese being successful or progressing any further than they have to date.

In regard to Australia, without the Japanese success in Malay and the subsequent events in the DEI and Papua etc, they will not feel threatened in the way they were IOTL. And as long as, what I am sure will soon get a new name, Force Z is in existence, their major beef with Britain, its failure to send a fleet as promised pre war, doesn’t exist. It was this feeling that Britain was unable and unwilling to honour its commitments that caused so many problems in Anglo-Australian relations. Remember at the end of the day, it’s to Britain that most Australians look to as their mother country. And it’s to Britain that they expect to export post war, America wasn’t ever going to be a major market for Australian goods and produce.

Italy isn’t a problem, its going to fall into the allied camp sooner or later, it’s just a question of when not if. It might require a ground invasion to push her over the edge, but even this isn’t a given. Yes America is as she did going to be beating the drum for an invasion of continental Europe. But until things settle down in the Pacific and everyone has time to draw breath and think a bit, Britain is easily going to brush this aside. That is not to say that their wouldn’t be a much stronger push by the Americans for an attack in 1943, and depending on the Dragon, we might actually see that.

[Astrodragon]

My reason for disliking DM isn't so much that his defence of the PI was equalled in its incompetance only by that or Percival (and what was redeemed was due to Wainright), but the fact he profited massively from it, taking the credit from the people who had been doing the heavy lifting (and indeed carried on doing this for the entire war), and basing military decisions (which cost lives, not just money), on what beneffited him personally.

Incompetance can be forgiven, how he acted can't.

[Astrodragon]

By the way, just to worry a few people..

The fate of MacArthus is NOT the same as OTL...

I'm not saying what it will be, though....

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

By the way, just to worry a few people..

The fate of MacArthus is NOT the same as OTL...

I'm not saying what it will be, though....

A Japanese prison camp sounds like a good idea. Then he has to dress as a geisha girl and dance for the Japanese newsreels.

Just a suggestion.

[paulo]

Originally Posted by Devolved

A Japanese prison camp sounds like a good idea. Then he has to dress as a geisha girl and dance for the Japanese newsreels.

Just a suggestion.

Not a bad one you softie

[Astrodragon]

The relations between Australia and Britain are noticeably better in TTL.

For a number of reasons...

Before the war, the building of the new carriers by the RN offered Australia an option to show they would do more to defend themselves without going as far as an (unaffordable) Battleship.

The success in NA was to a considerable extent due to Australian troops, and the win (rather than the continuing to-and-froing in OTL) made that more obvious.

When things heated up in the East, the better position allowed 2 of the 3 Australian divisions to go back, plus a British division in place of the 3rd that remained in the Med. The RN also sent the promised substantial fleet presence, and the RAF at least has some modern aircraft deployed. Park (NZ) and Blamey(Aus) have much more prominent roles in the defence of the area, which has gone down well (our blokes are leading British units as well as ours). The top man is British, but the British own most of the military force in the area, and Alexander is competant (which helps a lot)

Australia always considered Singapore the main point of defence in the area, and Britain can be seen to have gotten serious about defending it - if it falls, it will be due to a level of attack no-one could have forseen or countered, given the war in Europe.

So Britain sees Australia as doing more, and complaining less about things the British really cant do much about, the Australians see Britain as fulfilling its obligations to them (even more than promised prewar, which only promised a fleet). So both sides trust each other more.
This isnt going to mean there arent tensions, there are, and at some point they will cause problems, but so far the situation is OK. Doesn't mean Churchill likes the Australians more either, but he and his advisors are (were) always pragmatic, and as its working he isnt going to mess with it too much. Hopefully.

Ironically (and unfairly) its the Americans that the Australians arent too happy with right now - where are the US troops to help defend the area??
The Japanese are all over the islands close to Australia like flies, and the USA is defending..some miserable little islands in the middle of no-where??
OK, they lost ships at PH, but they keep telling us how powerful they are.

The people in charge realise the realities (military and political), and arent going to say anythnig too rude or disruptive, but there are a certain amount of ascerbic comments and resistance every time the US tries to take charge of something without having the boots on the ground to back up their assertions.

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

By the way, just to worry a few people..

The fate of MacArthus is NOT the same as OTL...

I'm not saying what it will be, though....

Irregardless of his rank and his performance in the Philippines, could MacArthur actually make a better second in command than the actual top commander in theater?

Heck, even if he stays in the Army, what's to say he would stay in the Pacific. Put him in charge of 5th US Army in Italy in place of Mark Clark or something. Granted he might loose his fourth star and go down to a three star. Who knows, different rank, different theater, different command setup, he could actually do fantastic, both in combat, and even end up running a successful political campaign back home. Five successful terms in the US House, one or two terms in Congress, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Manpower or whatever, followed finally by a two or three year tour as US Ambassador to Malta.

[Astrodragon]

Jan 17th

Hitler is busy removing some of teh Generals he sees as having failed him by not victory in Russia. He sacked Field Marshal Walter von Brauchitsch on 19 December and took the opportunity to make himself C-in-C of the army. Field Marshal von Leeb, the commander of Army Group North, resigned yesterday after Hitler refused permission to retreat from Demyansk where 100,000 men are nearly surrounded.

Another Field Marshal, von Bock of Army Group Centre, was relieved on 20 December at his own request because of stomach trouble brought on by his failure to take Moscow. Field Marshal von Rundstedt of Army Group South was sacked for telling Hitler it was madness not to retreat after the loss of Rostov. Today von Reichenau, who took over from von Rundstedt, died when his plane crashed while flying him to Leipzig for. General Guderian was sacked on Christmas Eve for a withdrawal in defiance of Hitler's orders. Hitler is now in supreme command.

A heavy series of raids by French medium bombers out of Malta causes considerable damage to Italian installations and airfields in Sicily. This comes as aq surprise to the Italians - the area around Malta has been relatively quiet of late, and as a result the defences in Sicily are rather caught by surprise. The raids target ports and airfields in particular, causing the Italian command to start to worry at the possibility that this is a prelude to further action or even an invasion.

On Bataan, the II Corps counterattacks to restore the western portion of the line, and makes limited progress. The U.S. 31st Infantry, moving north from the Abucay Hacienda area, reaches the Balantay River on the left but is unable to make much headway on the right. Reserves move forward to plug a gap between the assault battalions. The Japanese encircling column begins an unopposed march down the Abo-Abo River toward Orion. In the I Corps area, Moron defenders fall back under enemy pressure to a ridge south and southeast of Moron.

The Japanese Carrier Striking Force sails to participate in operations in the Bismarck Archipelago.

The Japanese air force continues to make raids into Burma, although General Yamashita protests that they should be concentrating on Malaya - he sees Burma as an unnecessary diversion at this point in the campaign. The raids do cause the RAF to lose a number of aircraft on the ground, and damage is caused to Rangoon again, with a steady trickle of losses in the air for both sides. So far the RAF in Burma is confident that they can cope with this level of attack, particularly as substantial reinforcements of Hurricanes are on their way via the Middle East.

Using the dark of the moon for concealment, Operation Stiletto kicked off last night, using two British and three US submarines. They slip up the east coast of Malaya, reaching the Thai border after dark. Using small boats the submarines put some 200 commandoes and volunteers ashore in 10 groups. The men head for the vital rail line that goes down the coast, along which the bulk of Yamashita's supplies are being transported. The main aims are any parts of the railway that will be difficult to repair - bridges, cuttings, any part where an explosion can collapse rock onto the line, as well as the line itself.

While the Japanese have guards along the line, these view it as an easy post , mainly to deter the local population from doing anything. They are completely unprepared for the raiding parties that slip out of the dark and slit their throats before planting explosives on the track. The raiders slip back to their submarines that night, only losing 9 men in total; the submarines head out and then submerge ready for daylight. By the time the men are heading back to their boats, the handful of men left to detonate the charges see the rail line cut in at last 22 places, many of them in positions that will be difficult to repair, as well as taking down a number of bridges. The only disappointment to them is the lack of any trains running - they would dearly have loved to blow the bridges with a train on it. Yamashita's already tight logistical situation has just got a lot worse.

Jan 18th

Burma's prime minister, U Saw, was arrested in Haifa when his plane touched down while he was returning to Burma from talks with British representatives. He had been trying unsuccessfully to secure a British promise of Burmese independence in return for supporting the war effort. The nationalist U Maung Saw is unpopular with the British authorities, who see him of suspect loyalty. This suspicion is now justified, because he contacted Japan's legation in Lisbon on his return flight. He was unaware that Britain had broken Japanese codes and knew of these overtures.

The Alies continue to mop up the Japanese forces at Labuan, at the cost of considerable losses themselves; the Japanese infantry fight to the last, and the RAN cruisers have had to withdraw southward to meet up with the rest of the force after an abortive attack from some 10 Japanese bombers - although the cruisers escaped without damage, they were considered too valuable to risk on just a fire support mission.

A Japanese convoy anchors at Sandakan in northern Borneo. Due to bad weather (monsoon rains and wind), the convoy remains in the port during the day. As a result of the weather, the Japanese troops had not unloaded and take the effectively undefended port, but the Allies are now aware of its presence. Admiral Crace asks permission from Somerville to engage in a night attack, which is given. His force moves north up the western coast that day, and by 2300 is in position to launch an attack on the ships. His light carrier holds 12 SeaLance and 12 Cormorants, and all are launched (with some difficulty in the poor weather).

Due to the limited preparation, not all the planes manage to find the port - 6 of the Cormorants never manage to locate it, and have to head back to the carrier. However the remaining aircraft spot the anchored transports illuminated by their flares. They only spot two transport ships, and the dive bombers are found not to be needed as the torpedo planes sink both of them. Gunfire is noticed from a number of large fishing boats also in the harbour (these had been carrying many of the men), and the aircraft strafe these, setting some on fire before they withdraw.

Crace sets sail southwards after recovering his aircraft, to get under cover of the fighters at Kuching before the Japanese air force has a chance to respond. While the strike has destroyed the invaders equipment and most of their supplies, it has only killed a few of the troops, who were being carried on the fishing boats. With only their small arms the Japanese commander now has to decide whether to land or retreat the next morning.

[Hyperion]

So overall how badly is the rail line damaged, and how long will it take to repair it, if they even have the equipment and resources to start repairing the damage first thing in the morning.

I'm guessing that even if the British never mount a raid like this again, at least in this area, Yamashita will have no choice but to deploy forces along the rail line and other rear areas for security purposes. Even if nothing happens, it will tie down a lot of troops that aren't going to be able to go into the line against the inevitable British attack.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Hyperion

So overall how badly is the rail line damaged, and how long will it take to repair it, if they even have the equipment and resources to start repairing the damage first thing in the morning.

I'm guessing that even if the British never mount a raid like this again, at least in this area, Yamashita will have no choice but to deploy forces along the rail line and other rear areas for security purposes. Even if nothing happens, it will tie down a lot of troops that aren't going to be able to go into the line against the inevitable British attack.

Yamashita will be getting a report in a couple of days after the engineers have been over the line.
It isnt going to help make him a happy bunny....

[Simon]

Originally Posted by Devolved

A Japanese prison camp sounds like a good idea. Then he has to dress as a geisha girl and dance for the Japanese newsreels.

A compromise - he has to dance but no news reels, however just before the camp is in is liberated by US forces he dies of a heart attack whilst on the toilet during the intermission of that night's performance?

[Alratan]

With the line cut in so many places the Japanese have a big issue. There's not much spare track in Thailand, and with the lack of a road network, they have to fix the damage one at a time, starting from the northernmost one. The single spot that can be worked on at any pone point then makes a nice, high value target to be dive bombed or strafed.

To make it clearer how bad it is, the Japanese won't even be able to tell how bad it is for quite a while, as they meed to ship the required engineers from site to site.

[Peg Leg Pom]

Originally Posted by Alratan

With the line cut in so many places the Japanese have a big issue. There's not much spare track in Thailand, and with the lack of a road network, they have to fix the damage one at a time, starting from the northernmost one. The single spot that can be worked on at any pone point then makes a nice, high value target to be dive bombed or strafed.

To make it clearer how bad it is, the Japanese won't even be able to tell how bad it is for quite a while, as they meed to ship the required engineers from site to site.

Well that gives the submarines something useful to do while waiting for dark so they can land more raiders.

[Garrison]

So Yamashita will have to cover the line with troops to prevent attacks on the repairs or further damage. At the same time The japanese will doubtless be looking for the Thais to 'volunteer' labour to help with repairs and haul supplies making themselves even more popular with their allies no doubt. Even worse for Yamashita I can't imagine he's going to be allowed to delay his attack for too long by his superiors, probably just long enough for the British supply convoy to arrive.
I can't see the Japanese at Sandakan retreating, they will plunge onwards however bad an idea it is.
The operations in the Bismarck Archipelago means the IJN is still planning to invade New Guinea, and one can only assume are still believing the reports about how much damage they did to the USN at Wake, with any luck the USN will have the opportunity to demonstrate how mistaken they are.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Garrison

I can't see the Japanese at Sandakan retreating, they will plunge onwards however bad an idea it is.

I agree, they will most probably continue the war in jungles of Borneo in isolated groups until 70s-80s...
Intresting butterfly for Konfrontasi trough...

[The Oncoming Storm]

Operation Stilletto is certainly going to make for a great movie ITTL! Maybe David Niven would have a starring role, though he might have been involved in the mission itself

[Simreeve]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

Operation Stilletto is certainly going to make for a great movie ITTL!

Unless it's made in Hollywood: John Wayne or Errol Flynn or even Frank Sinatra leading an all-American team that does the job?