The Whale has Wings

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

I don't get why the Japanese are insisting on attacking Burma. Surely it is a much lower priority than Malaya, for instance.

Ditto with Rabaul.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

I don't get why the Japanese are insisting on attacking Burma. Surely it is a much lower priority than Malaya, for instance.

Ditto with Rabaul.

Because its in the plan and changing the plan would involve realizing that things aren't going as well as they were counting on? Bear in mind that even ITTL the Japanese are assuming that most of the problems they have run into are just temporary setbacks, they don't realize just how much of a predicament Yamashita is in and he may not want to play it up too much for fear of losing face.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Alratan

iOTL, Victoria Point airfield only fell on the 16th, so unless it's been suppressed or demolished already, I'd have thought that the RAF would be staging through there?

They consider it too dangerous (far too close to the Japanese). It was demolished and comprehensively booby-trapped for the delight of the Japanese

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Garrison

Because its in the plan and changing the plan would involve realizing that things aren't going as well as they were counting on? Bear in mind that even ITTL the Japanese are assuming that most of the problems they have run into are just temporary setbacks, they don't realize just how much of a predicament Yamashita is in and he may not want to play it up too much for fear of losing face.

Yamashita is not, however, going to countenance any advance into Burma apart from the southern 'handle'. That bit does make sense, it covers his rear so he can, for the time being, forget about Burma. Note that there have been far fewer air raids too, the JAF has been far too busy in Malaya this time. He also has a small hope it may panic the British into doing something sily, but after the last month he is rapidly losing hope that the British command will be so foolish.

[Ramp-Rat]

We are just over a month into the war in the Far East, and as far as the Japanese are concerned things are going well. Not as well as they hoped, but they have a plan and they are basically sticking to it. We with the benefit of hindsight can see that the plan is beginning to unravel, but they can not. They do not know what we know, nor are they receiving the intelligence they need to understand what is really happening. The majority of the sources in the allied controlled areas have been put out of action, ether rounded up or forced into hiding. And their reporting procedures are not conducive to truthful reporting, as we would understand it.

The next few weeks in the Malaya, Burma, DEI, combat area, will see the course of events rapidly move away from those of OTL. As the Japanese who have spread their forces far to thin, become reactive and not proactive. Time and time again in our OTL, the Japanese had incredible luck, and it wouldn’t have taken much to change things to the allies’ advantage.

Right now Britain and her Empire are in a very good place in comparison to where she was IOTL. She isn’t trying to fight and support a major land campaign in the Middle East, one that had far more vital interests at risk than the Far East. She can as a major maritime power take as little of war as she wishes in the Med. She isn’t under any great threat there, and it is her that is able to cause with minimum forces the greatest threat.

In the rest of Europe, raids on the extensive cost line are becoming another major distraction for the Axis Powers, while the treat of an invasion of Britain has been eliminated. This has a knock on effect, warships held back as an anti-invasion force, are now free to be integrated into the u-boat war. Or be sent east to join in the war there, ships that just weren’t available in OTL. Nor are the desperate needs of convoys for the relief of Malta, which were such a drain on Navel resources now required. The opening up of the Mediterranean will more than offset increased losses on the American East Coast, and the shorter shipping times, enable more and better supplies to be shipped East.

At home the worst of the German air offensive is over, and the disruption and loss to industrial production has ended. British industry is now able, to concentrate on war production, and the majority of fat has been cut out of her economy. Firms that were producing for the civil market have had the time to switch to armaments, and have gone through the learning curve, and are getting fully into their stride. The major Empire industrial nations, Canada and Australia, are now joining the effort as they too have turned over local industry to the war effort. While there will be a dip in supplies from America as she diverts equipment to her own needs, it will not be as problematic as it was.

Without the events in Burma that took place IOTL, the civil disruption that took place in India that arose when it looked like there was going to be an invasion of India, will be somewhat muted. There will still be problems, but more concentrated in major cities, and far fewer in the countryside. And the administration in India will be far better able to deal with them. In Burma itself, as long as Rangoon holds, then the problems encountered IOTL just will not arise. It was the loss of Rangoon and the effective loss of all supply routes, other than by air that caused the problems there.

Questions have been asked about native troops in Burma and Malay, and their effectiveness, and what use they were. In Burma the major problem was that the local troops lacked training and equipment, and this along with the fact that most saw their families left behind enemy lines. Left the troops in an insidious position did they carry on fighting with the British and abandon their families to the tender mercies of the Japanese and their own people, or did the desert and try to save their families?

Malay was a very different proposition, it as we understand it, didn’t exist; it was at the time of the outbreak of the Second World War, a hodgepodge of semi autonomous Princely States, and various other administrative enteritis. And so it didn’t have a single National Native Army, that only came about post war. That is not to say that during the events OTTL, such a force will not be cobbled together from local units and war establishment units razed under the pressure of events. But it will be a least 1943, before such forces can play any significant part in the fighting.

The war as of now, is going to be a very different one to the one we know, and events are going to rapidly take very different paths to the ones we are accustomed to. More and more, the axis powers are going to find that it’s the allies who set the pace and direction of events.

[malcolio]

Originally Posted by Ramp-Rat

Nor are the desperate needs of convoys for the relief of Malta, which were such a drain on Navel resources now required.

That just made me realise, Malta won't be awarded the George Cross. Pity, made for a great flag!

[Peg Leg Pom]

Originally Posted by malcolio

That just made me realise, Malta won't be awarded the George Cross. Pity, made for a great flag!

Malta doesn't need the George Cross on its flag, it can use the Maltese Cross instead. (Or if who ever designed the flag is a film buff a falcon)

[Garrison]

The Japanese are approaching a tipping point where the momentum violently swings away from the, probably when Yamashita launches his fresh offensive in Malaya. Given the literally suicidal courage of his soldiers his forces may essentially be destroyed, that happens and the Burma offensive is right off, and what happens to those troops on Borneo depending on seaborne supply?

[perfectgeneral]

He did try a probing attack down the east coast. He may have realised by now that the way ahead is hard. The next Japanese action could be the first re-examination of the grand plan.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by perfectgeneral

He did try a probing attack down the east coast. He may have realised by now that the way ahead is hard. The next Japanese action could be the first re-examination of the grand plan.

Actually its the next British action in Malaya which will cause this...

[perfectgeneral]

The grin-o-meter is red-lining...

[Hyperion]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Actually its the next British action in Malaya which will cause this...

Send forth the SAS or SBS.

[Paul_Sussex]

Astrodragon - great timeline and one of the few I'm following from the start at the moment!

With the draw down (and eventual stopping?) of Commonwealth LL to Russia, could I suggest that Canadian production of Hurricanes and Valentines be continued to support the FE theatre.

Hurricanes remained a viable fighter-bomber in the East long after being replaced in Europe. If even half OTL production of about 3000 was sent to India, this could support perhaps twenty squadrons of an expanded Indian Air Force (based on OTL production and deployment of Whirlwinds). Minor changes might be swapping two .50's for a pair of cannon and installing a clear view hood? If necessary, losing the Vokes filter and accepting shorter TBO, as suggested in FFO, should maintain adequate performance, certainly against the majority of JAAF aircraft.

The Valentine is a good tank in Commonwealth use ITTL - reliable, almost as heavily armoured as Matilda and low profile. The 2pdr is a good AT gun, even if the Japanese rush development of their later medium tanks and with production of the Australian designed HE shell can also be used for infantry support. But concentrate on the MkIII and/or MkV with the three man turret.

[Ramp-Rat]

If Singapore and Borneo hold, and it is increasingly looking as if the will, this is going to put a whole new completion on the events in the Far East. Britain has in Singapore a major established base that can and will be used to a far greater extent than it was. The Japanese never really got the best out of the place, and Britain got it back only after the war was over. This will have a major effect post war, as the basically Chinese lead Malay Communist Parties insurrection is going to be a very different game. Without the British encouragement that took place in the occupation years, there will be no formation of a guerrilla arm as took place in OTL. And development in Singapore will be more advanced than it was, due to the demands off both the British and Americans on the area.

Singapore will end up as the principal base for three conflicting campaigns, the first and most important; the northern campaign, to clear Malayan territory of the invaders, and then clear Siam and FIC. The second is to clear the DEI and secure the sea lanes to Singapore, while insuring the defence of Australia. Lastly, and to an extent only once the first two have been completed, the American might want to base their efforts to liberate the Philippines from Singapore and Northern Borneo.

Now this is going to cause a major problem, no way are the British going to allow the Supreme Allied Commander in the area to be an American, and especially not Douglas MacArthur. They will insist that the post is held by a Brit, and that the commander Navel forces be a Brit too. Given that the majority of Navel Units in theatre will for some time be British, as too is the case for ground and air units. It’s going to be very hard for the Americans to justify any other arrangement. MacArthur is on a hiding to nothing right now, and is not going to be a very happy bunny.

The Australians don’t need him to defend the nation against the impending Japanese attack, which now doesn’t exist. The British have their own chaps thank-you very much, all of whom have a much better record than he does. And Admiral King has no place for him in his plans. At best he will be given command of the American effort to liberate the Philippines, but only as ground commander. Will a small organic Navel and Airforce attached to facilitate his efforts.

Douglas MacArthur is going to find himself a subordinate commander in a minor campaign that is very low down the priorities list for men and materials. In truth the best bet for the allies is to avoid the Philippines, and to leave them isolated to wither on the vine, while they concentrate on taking the war to the Japanese homelands.

[MattII]

Hells, even if the Japanese do end up taking Singapore they're going to lose a lot sooner, they're down a carrier and a couple of lights already on OTL, and they're going to lose probably a couple more carriers, and a lot more troops, which means that they're going to be in less of a position to menace Australia, while the Aussies are going to be in a better position, since I imagine the RN will rebase there, and take their ships with them.

[perfectgeneral]

wiki/HMS_Glengyle

The Admiralty acquired Glengyle shortly after her launch, and she was converted into a fast supply ship. During April and June 1940, she underwent further conversion into an Infantry Landing Ship capable of transporting an embarked force of up to 34 officers and 663 other ranks and carrying 12 LCAs on Welin-McLachan davits and 1 LCM stored in chocks on deck and launched by 30-ton derricks.[3][4][5]
She was accepted into service on 10 September and, on 31 January 1941, Glengyle sailed around Africa to the Mediterranean, where she became part of Force Z.

The LCM would have to be an LCM(2) given the 30 ton limit of the derrick unless the tank was loaded into the LCM once afloat. The LCM(2) could carry a Tetrarch light tank or a Mk1 Matilda while on the derrick. Once refitted with a 50 ton derrick, she can carry 24 LCAs and 2 LCM(3) - able to carry a 30 ton medium tank.

This represents the full extent of amphibeous projection in theatre beyond that of the submarines and the limited range of the assault landing craft 50-80 miles (depending on engine and water absorption of the wooden hull)? It is unclear if she has remained in the Eastern Med or continued to Trincomalee ITTL.

Please carry on. Excellent work.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Ramp-Rat

Development in Singapore will be more advanced than it was, due to the demands off both the British and Americans on the area.(1)

1) Other than for a sub base and the American contingent of ABDA, I doubt the Americans will have a large presence. Historians have even made the American sub base in Freemantle controversial. Of course, that was Christie's cockup.

Singapore will end up as the principal base for three conflicting campaigns, the first and most important; the northern campaign, to clear Malayan territory of the invaders, and then clear Siam and FIC.(2) The second is to clear the DEI and secure the sea lanes to Singapore,(3) while insuring the defence of Australia.(4) Lastly, and to an extent only once the first two have been completed, the American might want to base their efforts to liberate the Philippines from Singapore and Northern Borneo.(5)

2) I don't see the Allies launching what would be a major offensive in a relative backwater (Siam and FIC) while Italy is still in the war and France is German occupied. Stopping the Japs is one thing. Starting the drive to Tokyo is another.

3) If there's anywhere that the Japanese will "stab a dagger into the map" it is the DEI. There, they either win the campaign and keep fighting, or lose the war. Essentially, if the DEI is secured for the Allies, the Japanese will be in the same boat as they were when the Philippines were liberated. No more oil for Japan.

4) That's something where the US may come into play more quickly. The BRITISH may feel Australia is no longer threatened, but if Rabaul falls, the Australian people's feelings on that subject will quickly change. Especially if the Japanese follow up with landings in northern New Guinea. That political pressure building in Australia in favor of Labour can't be help back forever. The rightwing parties in Oz are heading for dissolution.

5) That is one fantastically long and circuitous supply line. For the US to supply SWPAC was hard enough, Singapore would likely be a backbreaker. What with all those Japanese controlled sea-lanes between Hawaii and the SCS.

Now this is going to cause a major problem, no way are the British going to allow the Supreme Allied Commander in the area to be an American, and especially not Douglas MacArthur. They will insist that the post is held by a Brit, and that the commander Navel forces be a Brit too. Given that the majority of Navel Units in theatre will for some time be British, as too is the case for ground and air units. It’s going to be very hard for the Americans to justify any other arrangement.(6) MacArthur is on a hiding to nothing right now, and is not going to be a very happy bunny.(7)

6) It's impossible. That's why ABDA OTL was a British, then Dutch command.

7) I swear to God, this website is rapidly developing more "MacArthur gets professionally screwed and/or killed" TLs than Confederacy Triumphant and Unmentionable Seamammal TLs put together!

Anyway, what happens to MacArthur will depend to a large degree on what happens in the SWPAC, Rabaul, New Guinea, the Solomons, and possibly the Coral Sea. The US will eventually be in a position to launch an offensive in the SWPAC, assuming the RN is keeping the KB busy, but we'll see. The USN has neither the ships nor planes yet to take on the IJN, as the US Atlantic Fleet is still redeploying.

The Australians don’t need him to defend the nation against the impending Japanese attack, which now doesn’t exist.(8) The British have their own chaps thank-you very much, all of whom have a much better record than he does.(9) And Admiral King has no place for him in his plans.(10) At best he will be given command of the American effort to liberate the Philippines, but only as ground commander.(11) Will a small organic Navel and Airforce attached to facilitate his efforts.(12)

8) That's the opinion of the British, not necessarily those in all circles of the corridors of Australian power. And OTL, it was unfortunately to the discredit of the British (particularly in Winston's mind) that Australia was NEVER in any real danger whatsoever. The usual bureaucratic dodges used OTL by London did nothing to assuage Australian fears. Winston was issuing general reassurances to Curtin long after the RN was no longer in a position to render aid. We know NOW the logistical impossibilities of an invasion of Northern Australia. We didn't know then.

ITTL, however, Australia is for the moment well protected enough. At least from every possible direction except from Rabaul and the Coral Sea. But that's well into the future. The problem is, with the distances involved, the Australians can argue that they will need MORE forces than you would normally expect to need for defense just for the sheer size of what they have to defend.

9) I doubt you could have said any differently of any number of French and British generals in France in May 1940, who had much more time to prepare in an ACTIVE war than he did.

10) King wouldn't have had any place in his war plans for MacArthur even if MacArthur had shot the Japanese air forces out of the skies, sunk their invasion forces, and driven every last Japanese soldier and sailor into the sea!

11) Actually, if the US wants to liberate the Philippines, Australia/New Guinea will be their best line of advance. The Central Pacific Strategy will take too long, though that works as a better route to Japan. And while the British may be all too happy to snub the Americans in a fit of foolish nationalistic pique, the Australians won't be so stuffy or choosy. It's not like they can provide or expect from the British the number of land-based aircraft and ground troops that America can provide as the war progresses. That may mean a separate Supreme Commander for the "South-West Pacific Zone" comprising MacArthur's OTL command, but not including the DEI. Whether it is MacArthur who gets that command, is another question.

12) To liberate the Philippines will require far more than that.

Douglas MacArthur is going to find himself a subordinate commander (13) in a minor campaign that is very low down the priorities list for men and materials.(14) In truth the best bet for the allies is to avoid the Philippines,(15) and to leave them isolated to wither on the vine, while they concentrate on taking the war to the Japanese homelands.(16)

13) He's a four-star general.

14) Not that low. That priority is being determined in Washington, not London.

15) Nope. If there is one situation where MacArthur can politically outmaneuver everyone, it's the Philippines. Between its strategic location, large very friendly civilian population, strong guerilla forces (when organized), and ITTL the largest population of POWs waiting to be liberated, Mac is holding all the cards. Even FDR can't face the voters in 1944 (17) without a Philippines Liberation, and no one knows it better than he and MacArthur.

16) That's where the USN Central Pacific Strategy comes in. The RN has bags and bags of moxie and mojo in this thread, but for the Pacific War its still for them a defensive war, until the back of the IJN is broken. Even then, the RN has to redeploy to take care of its commitments all around the rest of the world. As Astrodragon has said, good as the RN/FAA is, they can't do it all by themselves.

It appears that ITTL the RN will be the instrument by which the IJN's offensive is BROKEN, but not destroyed. More like an inglorious end for the Japanese, like after Leyte Gulf, when they still had plenty of ships, but they were immobilized for lack of fuel. This leaves Britain free to return in strength to the Med, and the USN to go on (when ready) to begin its long march to Tokyo. (18) But at a pace that doesn't hurt the ETO War.

17) FDR would still be re-elected, but he'll have almost negative coattails in the Congress. Insuring Republican control of Congress after the off-year elections of 1946!

18) Thankfully, the OP has written ITTL an American Ally that CAN find both asscheeks at night with a flashlight, compass, roadmap, and GPS!

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by MattII

Hells, even if the Japanese do end up taking Singapore they're going to lose a lot sooner, they're down a carrier and a couple of lights already on OTL, and they're going to lose probably a couple more carriers, and a lot more troops, which means that they're going to be in less of a position to menace Australia, while the Aussies are going to be in a better position, since I imagine the RN will rebase there, and take their ships with them.

Winston Churchill: "Not by the hairs of my chinny-chin-chin! The fleet will go to Ceylon where they belong, to protect the way into India."

[Alratan]

On the US side, the real difference is that the China Lobby's hand will be massively strengthened. The argument that the war should be won by sending Lend-Lease to the Nationalists to defeat the IJA on the ground rather than spending American boys' lives in a drive across the Pacific will be very hard to refute. With the Burma Road open and the railway under construction, then that option isn't closed off as it was iOTL.

This is also why the campaign to drive the French out of FIC is a major strategic priority, as that opens a much better and more direct supply route to the Chinese.

Whilst we may know that Japan wins or loses the war in the DEI, the Allies don't know that, but they do know that a substantial majority of the IJA is in China, and defeating them there should end the war.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Alratan

On the US side, the real difference is that the China Lobby's hand will be massively strengthened. The argument that the war should be won by sending Lend-Lease to the Nationalists to defeat the IJA on the ground rather than spending American boys' lives in a drive across the Pacific will be very hard to refute. With the Burma Road open and the railway under construction, then that option isn't closed off as it was iOTL.

This is also why the campaign to drive the French out of FIC is a major strategic priority, as that opens a much better and more direct supply route to the Chinese.

Whilst we may know that Japan wins or loses the war in the DEI, the Allies don't know that, but they do know that a substantial majority of the IJA is in China, and defeating them there should end the war.

The arguments you present are very logical, but politics =/= logic.

When it comes to the war against Japan, Americans are not looking for proxies, though they are welcome, of course. The American attitude can best be summed up by a line from the best American western of the 1970s, "The Outlaw Josey Wales". The bounty hunter coming after Josey Wales is so determined to destroy Wales that he says: "I don't want to HEAR Wales dead. I want to SEE Wales dead."

Yeah. Americans don't want to read about Chinese armies cutting a swath through the North China Plain, or British fleets bombarding Japanese cities. They want to read about American heavy bombers reducing Japan's wood-and-paper cities to ashes. After Pearl Harbor, America had officially gone postal.