The Whale has Wings

[Geordie]

I can't believe it. I disappear for about 10 days, and find I'm about 40 pages behind on this magnificent timeline. As always, I remain very impressed by your work Astrodragon. The volume of comment and speculation by other posters proves that I'm not the only one who thinks this.

Keep up the good work, and I'll try to dredge up some meaningful comments and questions to post when I've finished work today.

EDIT: Congratulations on reaching 250 pages!

[Gannt the chartist]

Astro

Have I missed something – OTL the first Japanese attack on Victoria point was mid Jan. If there is a delay in the invasion or if there are additional CW forces in Burma from the supply convoy coming in there is a fair chance they will hold longer if not permanently. The logistics problem as I understand it was between Central Burma and India. India to Rangoon and then forwards was much less of a problem.

The OTL IJA advance into central Burma was dependent on the use of trucks, supplies and troops released after the fall of Singapore and the DEI and very confused British command arrangements that are not yet in place.

If that does not happen whatever it does 15th army is likely to run out steam no further than central Burma and probably not that far. Also a delay may mean Smyth is recognised as sick and Cowan has 17 Indian div.

At some point we need an update on allied command arrangements in the Far East, after Wake though.

[Expat]

Originally Posted by perfectgeneral

This becomes a hot issue if the Brits/Commonwealth/Allies push, through northern Yugoslavia, up the Danube valley. Will Tito feel cut off from Soviet Russia or safely cushioned?

Though if this does happen in addition a French and Italian invasion, it does simplify negotiations as well in a cut-throat way. "Whatever you can grab" does seem like the easiest thing to say, and it's the kind of thing Stalin and Britain could agree to, with the US saying, "wait, what?" as they try to orchestrate some grand bargain.

Obviously one can imagine small exchanges of territory here and there- your half of Austria for our half of Hungary, or whatever. Maybe Bulgaria for Finland, since Bulgaria was pretty pro-Soviet (I think?) and Finland was very much not, and the Brits kind of owe the Finns one anyway.

But this has tremendous consequences the world over. The Russo-British invasion of Iran happened ITTL, I assume. The Soviets had a Kurdish puppet state happening IOTL, which has the potential to be a huge game-changer in the Middle East.

China will be a maelstrom if the allies expect to hold onto any of it. I guess it was a maelstrom anyway, but the rest of the world's gonna feel it this time.

[Ramp-Rat]

In regard to imports of Moroccan iron ore, this is a win, win for the British. They were pre-war importing iron ore from there, and any reduction in imports from America/Canada frees shipping space for other goods. While also helping to reduce British reliance on American LL, which is all to the good for the post-war economy. In addition, British ships that have taken war loads to the Mediterranean now have a problem, they can and some will, pick up POL loads in the Middle East, ether for on-carriage to the Far East, there to pick up loads for return to Britain. Or they can do the same with loads of POL for Britain; remember lots of such loads at this time were carried in tins, or drums, and not in tankers.

However, lots of them will be coming back ether empty, or with small loads of raw materials, Egyptian cotton, etc, or tinned fruit etc from Palestine, Spain and Portugal. And those empty ships will need to be ballasted, and at this time, ships ballast was rocks. Did you know, a major section of New York’s water front is built on London, well the rubble from London after the blitz, used as ballast on ships during the war.

Empty merchant ships, need ballast, it improves their handling, and economy, when empty the ships propeller is as much as three quartets exposed. This reduces engine efficiency, and imposes strain on the engine, as the propeller slaps the water, on a regular basis. Now given that the normal ballast is rocks, far better to use rocks you can make use of at the end of the voyage.

Moroccan iron ore was some of the best, with a high metal content, cheap and easy to get hold off. An ideal back-load for ships, that had been sent out full, and were now looking to return empty, or with only minimal loads.

Looking a Greece, with British and Greek forces in Crete, you can expect to see a lot of intervention on the mainland and the islands by the boys from various Special Forces. Who between them will be keeping the Germans very busy, as Greece is such a lovely place for their games. And Crete provides the ideal training ground, to bring the boys up to speed before the head out. This will also impact on events in Yugoslavia, as it too, is now much nearer to an Allied base, and thus easier to supply and get to.

I would expect to see, a regular monthly schedule, as during the no moon period, teams move in and out of Greece and Yugoslavia. Then train and evaluated while waiting for the next window to open. The Germans are going to find that the area is a running sore, drawing in troops and resources, they would much rather use elsewhere. No sitting in the sun peeling grapes, nibbling the odd olive, while sipping wine, and enjoying fresh figs. More like days and weeks slogging through the mountains, chasing will of the wisp partisans and nasty tough British SAS men, all of whom will be trying to kill you.

As to how this might affect the post-war situation there, and the politics of the region, that is up to Astrodragon, but things will be very different to what they were in OTL.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Originally Posted by perfectgeneral

You ninja'd my edit. Well spotted.

Having looked at the preface to that paper, "Britain's Middle East Oil and Struggle to save Sterling", I have to agree that ITTL Britain will have a stronger hand because of a greater control over oil resources and the rubber and tin of Malaya. Rubber is a waning commodity because Germany has developed synthetic rubber even if the USA has not.

Umm, not really. Natural rubber is MUCH better for many things than synthetic, even today, especially vehicle tires. Germany made do with synthetic, for lack of anything better, but the US won't if they have a choice, IMO.

[PMN1]

Originally Posted by Ramp-Rat

In regard to imports of Moroccan iron ore, this is a win, win for the British. They were pre-war importing iron ore from there, and any reduction in imports from America/Canada frees shipping space for other goods. While also helping to reduce British reliance on American LL, which is all to the good for the post-war economy. In addition, British ships that have taken war loads to the Mediterranean now have a problem, they can and some will, pick up POL loads in the Middle East, ether for on-carriage to the Far East, there to pick up loads for return to Britain. Or they can do the same with loads of POL for Britain; remember lots of such loads at this time were carried in tins, or drums, and not in tankers.

However, lots of them will be coming back ether empty, or with small loads of raw materials, Egyptian cotton, etc, or tinned fruit etc from Palestine, Spain and Portugal. And those empty ships will need to be ballasted, and at this time, ships ballast was rocks. Did you know, a major section of New York’s water front is built on London, well the rubble from London after the blitz, used as ballast on ships during the war.

Empty merchant ships, need ballast, it improves their handling, and economy, when empty the ships propeller is as much as three quartets exposed. This reduces engine efficiency, and imposes strain on the engine, as the propeller slaps the water, on a regular basis. Now given that the normal ballast is rocks, far better to use rocks you can make use of at the end of the voyage.

Moroccan iron ore was some of the best, with a high metal content, cheap and easy to get hold off. An ideal back-load for ships, that had been sent out full, and were now looking to return empty, or with only minimal loads.

An earlier development of the Ore/Oil carrier???



From Conway’s ‘The Shipping Revolution’: The Modern Merchant Ship




There had been experiments in the 1920’s with small vessels that could carry, alternatively, dry cargo and wet cargo. In the development of the Liberian ore trade from Monrovia to the US east coast after the Second World War, Republic Steel entered a shipping venture jointly with a New York based ship owner. Several ore/oil carriers of 24,000 dwt were designed in the late 1940’s built in European yards and delivered in the early 1950’s. While waiting for the port of Monrovia to prepare facilities for iron ore exports Republic’s first vessel was fixed on charter to Anglo-Iranian for the Persian Gulf- Western Europe oil trade.

[Alratan]

The infrastructure to manufacture large quantities of synthetic rubber is also really quite expensive, and if you can keep on importing the natural variety, you probably wouldn't bother unless the initial construction hadn't been massively subsidised during wartime.

Even if the basic science has been done in Germany, there's no real guarantee that its value will be recognised post war if the US hasn't also done significant work in the field to know what they're looking at.

[Peg Leg Pom]

With all the talk about whether Britain should support Titos Partisans there is one further point that needs to be considered, the Greeks. Greece is the only ally Britain has in the Balkans and will not look favourably on any supplies been given to communists. Supplies that they will fear will end up in the hands of Greek communists at a latter date. They may even go so far as to forbid any supply flights to Tito from Greek soil and until Sicily and southern Italy are taken the Greeks islands are the only location the flights can leave from unless the RN risks a carrier in the southern Adriatic.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Peg Leg Pom

With all the talk about whether Britain should support Titos Partisans there is one further point that needs to be considered, the Greeks. Greece is the only ally Britain has in the Balkans and will not look favourably on any supplies been given to communists. Supplies that they will fear will end up in the hands of Greek communists at a latter date. They may even go so far as to forbid any supply flights to Tito from Greek soil and until Sicily and southern Italy are taken the Greeks islands are the only location the flights can leave from unless the RN risks a carrier in the southern Adriatic.

IDK about that. Tito's partisans were VERY effective in tying up a lot of Axis troops. Far beyond the level called for, really. Typical Fascist overreaction to internal rebellions, really. You have a mixed force of 600 partisans, with 400 rifles, 200 rounds of ammunition, 1 bazooka with 3 missiles, 1 mortar with four shells (two of them smoke), and the Nazis will throw an SS Panzer regiment against it.

This could be a case of parsing things just a bit too much.

[Expat]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

IDK about that. Tito's partisans were VERY effective in tying up a lot of Axis troops. Far beyond the level called for, really. Typical Fascist overreaction to internal rebellions, really. You have a mixed force of 600 partisans, with 400 rifles, 200 rounds of ammunition, 1 bazooka with 3 missiles, 1 mortar with four shells (two of them smoke), and the Nazis will throw an SS Panzer regiment against it.

This could be a case of parsing things just a bit too much.

Since when does military effectiveness trump political concerns?

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Expat

Since when does military effectiveness trump political concerns?

Going after partisans traipsing around occupied capitals, cities, and towns is one thing. Villages, hamlets, and deep forests and mountains in the middle of bumfuck nowhere is another.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Roisterer

As I asked in the 'Happy and Glorious' thread, will the western allies switch support from the Chetniks to the Partisans as OTL? If so, this complicates matters as it means that Tito will assume power after the war. The good news is that he was no friend of Stalin.

Regards

R

I'm not sure about switching support to the Partisans...
But Tito WAS friend of Stalin up to 1948, even more "the best Stalin's student"...

[abc123]

Originally Posted by perfectgeneral

This becomes a hot issue if the Brits/Commonwealth/Allies push, through northern Yugoslavia, up the Danube valley. Will Tito feel cut off from Soviet Russia or safely cushioned?

If Britain/USA land's in Adriatic coast, Tito's partisans were under orders to fight AGAINST them, together with Germans. Partisans were only allies of Soviet Union, never the West.


Ironicly enough, the only allies that British could find in easter side of Adriatic were Chetniks ( to insure return of the King and restoration of Yugoslavia ) and part of NDH forces ( that had plans to switch side if British forces back them out by landing at Adriatic coast, if promised independent Croatia after the war ).

[The Oncoming Storm]

There's an apocryphal story about a British diplomat in WW2 being told by a journalist about attrocities committed by Tito's partisans, his blunt response was "Yes he's a bastard, but he's our bastard." Given how effective Tito's men were I really can't see Britain sticking with the Chetniks.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

There's an apocryphal story about a British diplomat in WW2 being told by a journalist about attrocities committed by Tito's partisans, his blunt response was "Yes he's a bastard, but he's our bastard." Given how effective Tito's men were I really can't see Britain sticking with the Chetniks.

About the effectivness, Partisans were effective because Balkans was unimportant area for Germans. The only important thing for Germans was railroad Germany-Turkey, and all else was left to Chetniks/Ustashe forces to control. Only when their allies showed as too uncompetent ( that means when Partisans went out of mountains and captured some city ) then germans were obliged to show them that they can't do what they want and make some sort of offensive ( that in reallity was running as fast as possible to escape in some other mountain area and preying that Germans will say: Enough for this year. That will teach them a lesson! )
Something like NATO forces-Taliban fighting in Afghanistan these days.

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Originally Posted by abc123

If Britain/USA land's in Adriatic coast, Tito's partisans were under orders to fight AGAINST them, together with Germans. Partisans were only allies of Soviet Union, never the West.
;

Cite, please.

[Gannt the chartist]

All of which goes to show why sensible people and timelines stay out of that part of the Balkans.

The threat of doing so, possibly on the back of landings across the Greek Islands and with Thessalonki a Bulgarian military zone would be interesting and if it ever happened an allied Army Group in Macedonia is a whole different prospect for partisans of whatever persuasion than a few plane loads of stens.

Of course at this particular moment the US is not at war with Romania, Bulgaria or Hungary and I am sure lots of things could be done to worry OKW while preparations are ongoing for whatever the Allies do do in the Med.

One other butterfly if Burma holds that might release ~60 C47 from the Hump thats a lot of airlift, even if it does not the a/c diverted to Egypt could still go to 10th AF in India on schedule

[Simon]

Speaking of Greece is the Greek government continuing to hold Crete, thereby not being a Government in Exile, and an increase in raids and support for the resistance enough to derail the Communist Party and the EAM or at least the pro-EAM mutiny? The monarchy not being too popular, the various resistance groups, and something like three competing governments towards the end of the war made it a complete mess. It's all very well building up the Greek forces if only for them to become 'politically unreliable'.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

Cite, please.

Memoires of Vladimir Velebit, Tito's secret negotiator with Germans.
I dont have the book and I don't know exact page...

Also, here: ( from monography of 3rd dalmatian partisan brigade )



This page speaks about partisans conducting mobilisation ( in fact mobilisation at gunpoint ) of soldiers in Dalmatian hinterland to become stronger to resist possible Anglo-American invasion of eastern Adriatic coast.

Also here, memoires of Walter Schellenberg, that Hungarian Secret Service caught courier that carrier Stalin's orders to Tito to "take military measures" against Anglo-American landing.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by abc123

Memoires of Vladimir Velebit, Tito's secret negotiator with Germans.
I dont have the book and I don't know exact page...

Also, here: ( from monography of 3rd dalmatian partisan brigade )



This page speaks about partisans conducting mobilisation ( in fact mobilisation at gunpoint ) of soldiers in Dalmatian hinterland to become stronger to resist possible Anglo-American invasion of eastern Adriatic coast.

Also here, memoires of Walter Schellenberg, that Hungarian Secret Service caught courier that carrier Stalin's orders to Tito to "take military measures" against Anglo-American landing.

Well cited!