The Whale has Wings

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Shevek23

They are?

They sure were OTL, but I thought ITTL the British ASW had pruned back the U-boat threat considerably.

Some U-boats have slipped through the net, sinkings have not stopped and with the German DOW on the USA they are free to converge on the US coasts as OTL. But there are fewer of them, I'm sure.

Still, yeah, just one U-boat would amount to raising hell, until someone stops it.

Still it took an awful long time for the USN to be persuaded to make that a priority OTL. With a weaker U-boat mob, is there any reason to think the American admirals will come around to proper attention to the matter any sooner?

Perhaps again, the embarrassing example of greater British success to date in that field as well as others will counterbalance the lighter threat and bring about doctrinal attention to the mundane matters of coastal patrol and convoy protection at the same belated date as OTL.

Astrodragon may or may not find it interesting to mention, but OTL the American coastal patrol efforts that were employed (and even prepared somewhat in advance, though by no means on the scale eventually employed) included blimps. As these were known from WWI experience to be effective, the literal handful the Navy had were immediately pressed into service on both coasts, as were another literal handful that had been owned by Goodyear in private service. In some cases they were patrolling out there with hand rifles for armament!

I only mention it because I'm a helium-fiend, and also because it was one of the few things the USN did outstandingly well in this mundane and inglorious but important war front.

Shevek23

I think that the ASW has been more successful and also more recently there has been a big move of U boats to the Med, which rather isolates them there, as well as making them even easier to kill.

However as you say a smaller number are still going to be highly destructive if other circumstances are the same and a smaller amount of damage may delay the USN reacting to the threat, or make them more determined to preserve with methods that don't work, such as ASW patrols. Also given events in the Pacific that will be attracting most of their attention until losses really start to mount.

I am presuming that there will be U boats operating off the coast as that was the main reason for Hitler's Dow.

Was vaguely aware of the US blimps but as you say something like that could be pretty effective. Even if not armed themselves they can spot boats for surface ASW units and just keeping the U boats down during the day would help restrict their mobility. Although this is somewhat less important in a coastal situation as opposed to deep ocean.

Steve

[MattII]

Why do I get the feeling that that optimism is going to come back to bite the Japanese?

[Faralis]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

He wanted immediate action to determine how best he could defend against this type of attack, and what needed to be developed to help this defence.

Thanks for the update.

First, I think Somerville is considering something a bit ... well.

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

The Japanese report was surprisingly optimistic

And second: ahhh the wonders of British understatement

[The Oncoming Storm]

So when is the penny finally going to drop for the Japanese?

[MattII]

Second battle I should think, which should see the forces being more evenly matched, and will see more significant damage to Force Z. Going to be some unpleasant realisations on both sides I should think, the British are probably going to find out more than they wish about the destructiveness of the Long Lance, while the Japanese are going to find out more than they wish about the FAA, or at least being on the receiving end thereof.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Battle of the South China Sea (part 7)

While Force Z had been making its withdrawal, covering its damaged ships, the Covering Force had been doing the same. The main damage to the Haruna was to her bow, and this was so bad that she couldn't move forward - the resistance of her damaged bow, and the pressure of the water on her repairs, was simply too great. So after a discussion, the cruisers Mogami, and Suzuya took her under tow. Backwards.
Which view was of considerable interest, and in fact a certain amount of amusement, to the Captain of HMS Triumph as he looked at them through his periscope that morning. He'd already been lurking in the general area, hoping that the Japanese force would come in range, but last night's sighting report from the FAA planes had been all he needed for an estimate of how to intercept the force. He was quite surprised to see so few ships; he assumed that the rest of the force was elsewhere, leaving him this nice, fat, damaged battleship all for his very own.

The Triumph was one of the earlier T-class boats, having four external bow tubes as well as the more usual six internal ones. While the external tubes were a nuisance and impacted her performance sometimes, they did give her a very heavy initial salvo indeed. The sight of the Japanese battleships was simply too tempting not to go for all ten torpedoes at once. The Triumph had no problems lining up her shot - being towed backwards by two cruisers wasn't exactly the fastest form of propulsion - and the captain allowed the boats turn to ripple fire the torpedoes across the battleship. Normally he would then have dived to start his evasion on the assumption that the enemy would be looking for him as soon as they saw the torpedo tracks, but e had only seen one destroyer, which was a good distance away, and he just HAD to watch what was going to happen.

Being towed as she was, the Haruna could do nothing to escape, and the shout from a lookout of torpedoes was greeted with despair on the bridge. In quick succession three huge plumes of water burts over the ship as the torpedoes detonated against her side, and with the damage already done to her, that was more than enough to overcome the old ship. Reconstruction could do only so much, and as with all old rebuilt ships she suffered from weak underwater protection by modern standards. The cruisers had no option but to slip their tows before the increasing weight of the Haruna broke them, and could do little more than circle back to her, watching as she slowly, even gracefully, heeled over on her final trip to the bottom.

The destroyer accompanying the ships made for where she supposed the enemy submarine was, but by the time she got around to her estimated position, the Triumph had slipped away, slow and silent, and the depth charges did little more than rattle her slightly and kill a considerable quantity of fish. The boat did, after the depth charges died away, take another look - there was, after all, always the chance that a ship might have hung around, and her internal bow tubes were reloaded, but after taking off the crew, the cruisers had decided that there was no point in them hanging around and had headed for port at well over 20 knots, followed by the destroyer (who was already claiming a kill on the submarine) The final act of the Battle of the China Sea was over.

I did wonder if he might get greedy and go for the cruisers, working on the basis their not exactly mobile either and that probably leaves the Haruna a sitting duck. However that would have been very greedy and if the BC did escape he would probably be in for a roasting when he got home.

The reports by both sides on the results of their actions were interesting, and it a shame that an impartial observer was not able to correlate the two, as they made quite different reading.

There are two sides to every story. In this case the IJN one and the correct one.

From the British point of view, the action had been successful. Force Z had lost an AA cruiser and a destroyer, and had a light carrier and a battleship put of out action for a considerable time. However they had sunk two light carriers (granted, old, small ones), two battlecruisers, three heavy cruisers and two destroyers, a quite satisfactory ratio. They had also destroyed the IJN land-based airforce until it could be rebuilt. On the tactical side, the performance of their fighters had been adequate, and the new planes n particular had performed well, although it had been noted that the Japanese pilots were brave, determined and the fighter pilots were highly skilled. The Japanese strikes had been as good as anything the Luftwaffe had done in the Mediterranean, and future missions would have to be undertaken with this in mind. For the time being, the Japanese surface force in the area was so severely weakened as to probably be unable to act for the time being. Somerville intended to keep reasonable pressure on the Japanese, especially with his submarines, but did not intend too aggressive actions unless necessary to protect British possessions - the amount of airpower the Japanese had deployed was still uncertain, and his force was not powerful enough to wage full scale air battle on its own. However for the time being it looked like the east coast of Malay was safe, and life was looking difficult for the Japanese convoys, which he intended to harry as much as feasible. Somerville intended to replace his losses from the ships finishing working up at Ceylon, although he wanted more ships if possible - he was in particular short of carriers and destroyers, and he needed replacement aircraft urgently. He also wanted a small commando force - he thought around 1,500 men would do, plus sufficient landing craft to lift about twice this. He had in mind using the current naval dominance of the area to consider landings behind the Japanese front line, as had proved successful in North Africa.

While the night attack had been an major success, he warned there were still issues. The attack had concentrated too much on the carriers; a more careful approach might have sunk the entire Japanese force. Also, although radar helped, there was still no true counter to a night attack by air, and the Japanese airmen had proved skilled enough to learn how to do this. He wanted immediate action to determine how best he could defend against this type of attack, and what needed to be developed to help this defence.

a) It could still be risky trying to prevent a landing in Borneo but under the circumstances could prove very effective. I also suspect he wouldn't mean this literally as he would realise the Dutch colonies are more important strategically than Borneo. Just wondered what the Brookes monarchy might be like if the Raja isn't forced to flee, especially if possibly he plays a role in defeating a Japanese invasion.

b) I like this idea. With convoys very, very vulnerable the Kra peninsula is going to be vital and especially its railway. A small force operating in the jungle would be a real pig for the Japanese to suppress, especially if it could be moved in and out by water. At the least having to try and garrison several hundred miles of railway line could tie up a hell of a lot of resources. Plus the Japanese hearts and minds approach - kill the hearts and you can ignore the minds - would work wonders on Thai feelings I suspect.

c) I think that might be a bit harsh. Given how uncertain a strike can be, especially at night and that they thought the carriers were fleet ones - rather than longer ranged land based a/c having launched the previous attack - I think it was essential to take them out. Would have been more than a little awkward if they had spread the attack too thinly and one or more carriers have survived as a result. Several pages back but I think it was 18 a/c against each carrier and even so they only scored 2-3 hits each.

The Japanese report was surprisingly optimistic - at this stage in the war their command seemed rather uncritical of the combat claims of its men. While it was accepted that the covering force had suffered heavy losses, this was only to be expected in action with the Royal Navy, especially as they had been outnumbered. Despite this they had inflicted serious losses on Force Z, and pointed out that the British ships had withdrawn as a sign that they too realised how much damage the Imperial Navy had inflicted on them. A battleship had been nearly sunk, and would not be in action for a very long time, and a second battleship had been hit by the aircraft; it too would no doubt be out of action for some time. A carrier had been sunk by the aircraft torpedo attack, and another one left in flames; since there was no sign of it in Singapore dockyard it had probably sunk from that damage. At least two cruisers and a number of destroyers had been sunk. While it was admitted that they had suffered heavy losses to their land-based air force, the British carriers airgroups had also been savaged. The British had obviously had four carriers with them (as shown by the strength of the night attack), now they only had two, and would need to rebuild their air groups. At least one British submarine had been sunk.

While the Japanese command admitted that their own losses meant it would be difficult to take much offensive action at sea until they had received reinforcement, the same applied to the Royal Navy, and they were much further away from their home bases. This meant that there was no overriding reason why the next phase of landings could not go ahead broadly on schedule, although they would need more planes before this would be entirely safe. Regarding the longer term plans, they pointed out that if the Royal Navy was reinforced again, with the current forces they expected to have it might be difficult to keep pressure on Malaya at sea. They therefore suggested two possible courses of action; first, to send significant reinforcements, this would mean battleships from home waters as well as at least part of the carrier striking force. If this proved impossible, a modification of the plan could be made. Instead of moving on the DEI by means of two pincers from the PI and Malaya, as the actions in the Philippines seemed so far to be going satisfactorily thy could keep the pressure on the British in Malaya with the army, then roll up the DEI from the east against the anvil of their advance into Malaya. This would allow them to keep the planned attack into Burma as soon as the Army had moved sufficiently far into Malaya.

All in all, although they had received a setback at the hands of the Royal Navy, they had damaged their opponent equally severely and the overall plan was still going well, although small modificatiosn might have to be made to keep abreast of the changing situation.

Won't they have doubts about sinking the 2nd carrier when Melbourne reaches Singapore? Unless their stupid enough to think that's a 3rd carrier out of play. Also, if they think that Britain still has 2CV and probably at least 1-2 capital ships still in action that's more than Japan has in the area at the time. Since the navy at least also knows its land based a/c has been badly mauled that means continuing with the current planned landings without substantial increased air support would be 'verging on suicidal/asking for disaster' rather than 'not entirely safe'

I think, given that the army is also having problems and I can see them getting a lot worse, the hammer and anvil approach will have to be necessary. Suspect the Japanese will make little further progress overland against Malaya so they will have to try a right hook through the Dutch colonies to turn its defences and cut supply lines. Sending substantial forces into the S China Sea might seem an option but their likely to met the same problem and be unable to support landings in the area in the face of allied air and naval forces.

All in all it sounds like a not so slow motion car crash as the Japanese plans hit the buffers, or possibly more accurately go off the cliff edge, at high speed.

The battle has gone better than I was fearing. A couple of major ships damaged and one elderly AA cruiser lost but in return the Japanese have seen two CVL and two elderly BCs sunk and the IJN forces in the region smashed while the RN still has a powerful fleet. Furthermore markedly more powerful than the Japanese realise so their likely to run smack into it. Also the Japanese naval a/c have been greatly reduced and the allies have had some warning of and experience on how to handle the Zero and the Long Lance.

Steve

[Astrodragon]

The Japanese analysis is suffering from a number of problems (all of which they had in OTL too...)

They are still new to this war; the more experienced countries like Britain and germany are bu now taking claims (especially by pilots) with suspicion, hence the new techniques such as photos. The Japanese are still taking pilot claims at face value. This is made worse by the Japanese feeling that their pilots are the best )which, on average, they are at the moment), and so wont make mistakes.

They also have an interest in NOT giving up the plan. First, its always (in any country) difficult to break the military off a plan they have spent so long working on and invested so much in. Second, it its all gone off the rails, exactly where does that leave them? Oh, just having pissed off the two largest naval powers in the world at the same time... Denial obliviates this , at least for the time being.

The overoptimism and reluctance to see facts when they were..disturbing.. isnt just a Japanese trait, but in WW2 they certainly managed to do it best...

[HJ Tulp]

To much Pom-action! We want to see the Dutch submarine service getting itself some scalps! Or the Dutch Naval Air Service with their Dorniers

[kellineil]

You know that if you don't post another update soon I'm actually going to have to do some work don't you?

[Alratan]

It seems like there's now going to be something of a race against time. Can the RN replenish their carrier's airwings and finish Bulwark's work up before the Japanese can replace their substantial losses.

It certainly seems that the British now have the strategic initiative at sea. Do the British at this point have the understanding of Japanese politics required to exploit the splits between the IJN and IJA by doing things like hitting IJA occupied airfields?

[trekchu]

Originally Posted by Alratan

It seems like there's now going to be something of a race against time. Can the RN replenish their carrier's airwings and finish Bulwark's work up before the Japanese can replace their substantial losses.

IMO it could come down on either side but time favours the Allies.

Originally Posted by Alratan

It certainly seems that the British now have the strategic initiative at sea. Do the British at this point have the understanding of Japanese politics required to exploit the splits between the IJN and IJA by doing things like hitting IJA occupied airfields?

I doubt it. From what I've read the scope of the rivalries (going so far that the Army operated it's own freighters so that they wouldn't have to use Navy ships) didn't become known to the west until after the war.

[Peg Leg Pom]

Originally Posted by trekchu

I doubt it. From what I've read the scope of the rivalries (going so far that the Army operated it's own freighters so that they wouldn't have to use Navy ships) didn't become known to the west until after the war.

Never mind the freighters the Japanese army operated its own Transport Submarines and Escort Carriers.

[Paulo the Limey]

Am I the only one who thinks the captain of the T- boat is an idiot? He has enough time to clearly see that the BC is not capable of making any headway on its own, so why not fire a large spread against the two slow moving cruisers? It would take them time to drop the tow and start to accelerate away and he might get a hit on one, or two. Either way the capital ship is left stationary as target practice.
Either that or see if he can get the lone destroyer, and leave the entire force with no ASW capability.

[Peg Leg Pom]

It's his training. Always go for the most valuable target first. Granted in this case he could have got the lot but if he's missed and then been forced to evade the destroyer long enough for the BC to be towed out of range he would have been in hot water when he got back to base. Even at the sitting target he only got 3 hits out of a salvo of 10 torpedos.

[Derek Pullem]

Originally Posted by Peg Leg Pom

It's his training. Always go for the most valuable target first. Granted in this case he could have got the lot but if he's missed and then been forced to evade the destroyer long enough for the BC to be towed out of range he would have been in hot water when he got back to base.

Aye, he couldn't have used the full spread as he would need to sink both cruisers to immobilise the battlecruiser.

So if he lets go with four on the nearest cruiser and if the cruiser does not drop the line and evade the torps he then has to reacquire the battle cruiser and try to sink her with six torps

Maybe he gets enough hits and maybe he doesn't.

Ten torps into the battlecruiser sinks her no questions asked.

[butch4343]

Ok Astro, excellent updates as always, I havent been this firmly gripped by a TL since macgrae’s protect and survive TL,

Ok the mention 10 or 15 pages ago of vickers S-Guns being mounted under the wings of Bueafighters, my understanding is that the main reason large guns died a death on fixed wing aircraft was the weight and perfomance penalites it inflicts on the aircraft, think of it this way after its attack the aircraft is lugging around dead weight (not sure if the gun pods on hurricanes could be jettisioned) , where as if the aircraft has bombs or rockets once these are released then the aircraft has little limitiations in comparioson, especially if in the case of rockets (60lb or HVAR) use the zero zero length launch rails.

Someone in the last few pages brought up the idea of striking airfields at night, I was wondering if this might be the start of one or two bueafighters going out over the airfields for night intruder misisons? I would expect that it would cause some damage to the IJA aircraft and ground crews and if nothing else it would interupt the vital maintinance going on through the night. I believe that the US B25’s were effective in conducting low-level daylight attacks on japanese airfields in China using fragmentation bombs and using white phosphourous as well. I could see decent results for the RAF in this.

Regards

[malcolio]

Originally Posted by Paulo the Limey

Am I the only one who thinks the captain of the T- boat is an idiot?

We can't have every British person (excluding the Air Ministry obviously) make every decision using common sense or taking every fact into account. Bad luck just happens and some people just make simple mistakes. I personally think Astrodragon has given the British a bit too much luck in his TL, so seeing a submarine captain only sink one destroyer seems fine to me!

[Derek Pullem]

Originally Posted by malcolio

We can't have every British person (excluding the Air Ministry obviously) make every decision using common sense or taking every fact into account. Bad luck just happens and some people just make simple mistakes. I personally think Astrodragon has given the British a bit too much luck in his TL, so seeing a submarine captain only sink one destroyer seems fine to me!

Errrrrrr........ one battlecruiser (albeit damaged)

[Landshark]

Originally Posted by Peg Leg Pom

Never mind the freighters the Japanese army operated its own Transport Submarines and Escort Carriers.

You see now we need the British Army to sink a Japanese Army aircraft carrier just to confuse future historians.

Added bonus if it's sunk by British Army planes flying off a British Army aircraft carrier.

[paulo]

Don't forget the Netherlands also need to sunk something of IJN