No Hundred Days

[Thande]

What if (a) Napoleon never escapes from Elba or (b) he is exiled somewhere more suitably remote in the first place, and either way there is no return, no Hundred Days, and no Waterloo?

What would be the knock-on effects of this?

Would the conservative system put into place at Vienna be more resilient if there wasn't such an obvious example of it being overturned?

Would French revolutionary ideals be less pervasive and long-lasting if there was no example of utter defeat followed by triumphant return?

How would the lack of a Waterloo mythos affect British, German and wider European politics in the years to come?

Would the revolutions of the later nineteenth century still come to pass?

Discuss.

[Wendell]

Originally Posted by Thande

What if (a) Napoleon never escapes from Elba or (b) he is exiled somewhere more suitably remote in the first place, and either way there is no return, no Hundred Days, and no Waterloo?

What would be the knock-on effects of this?

Would the conservative system put into place at Vienna be more resilient if there wasn't such an obvious example of it being overturned?

Would French revolutionary ideals be less pervasive and long-lasting if there was no example of utter defeat followed by triumphant return?

How would the lack of a Waterloo mythos affect British, German and wider European politics in the years to come?

Would the revolutions of the later nineteenth century still come to pass?

Discuss.

Better yet-WI Napoleon is sent to Devil's Island, French Guiana, and ends up conquering Brazil?

[Anaxagoras]

Possible cause: the Bourbons pay Napoleon's stipend, which they had promised to do in the treaty establishing Napoleon on Elba but then, being Bourbons, refused to actually implement. Many of his comments in the initial phase of the exile indicated that he might have been happy staying on Elba and writing his memoirs had he been able to do so (though he may have been fooling himself).

Possible effects:
1. France emerges as a somewhat stronger power post-1815, as it would avoid paying for a long-term Allied army of occupation.

2. There is no myth of Waterloo, but the mystique of the British army is not particularly affected because of their outstanding performance in the Peninsular War. Wellington keeps his reputation as one of the great generals (and silly AltHistory fans spend countless hours speculating as to what would have happened had Napoleon and Wellington ever actually fought one another).

3. Napoleon's military repuation is even greater than it is in OTL. Not only does he avoided losing the most famous battle of all time, but he published a series of memoirs regarding his military exploits.

4. Bonapartism remains a strong force in French politics. There would be no "White Terror" in the post Hundred Days, and Napoleon's writings on subjects ranging from international finance to education reform would pour from Elba.

5. Prussia is a weaker power vis-a-vis Austria and Russia, since Prussia has played only a secondary role in the defeat of Napoleon. This would have interesting ramifications on the future development of Eastern and Central Europe.

6. Talleyrand manages to make a huge deal of money under the table, while sleeping with a lot of beautiful women (since he managed to do this under any and all circumstances in OTL, I think it would still take place in this TL).

[Redbeard]

I actually think the Napoleonic wars will be seen what it was: a mainly continental affair, and with UK only in the sideshows. Wellington and the British army will be seen as good, but not better, as they never really met the ultimate challenge - meeting Napoleon himself ahead of the Grande Armee. They had the chance once (1809) but fled all they could towards the habours of the Iberian peninsula, and were only saved by the Austrians invading Bavaria - and diverting Napoleons attention. If one thing would be sure about the Napoleonic wars it would be that Napoleon always was where the Austrian main army was.

Prussia will not have the same appeal to the Germans as the uniting factor of Germany, and Austria will thus be much stronger for much longer. On the continent whatever Austria and Russia agrees upon is what happens, but monarchial France will gradually recover and again become a factor not to be overseen.

Conservatism will in general be stronger, and the liberal and nationalistic rebellions in mid 19th century probably be crushed with more determination. The unification of Italy and Germany will at least be postponed and in the north Denmark will for longer keep control of Slesvig-Holsten. Denmark and a lot of European states will probably be like Belgium - ie. at least two main languages and eternal quarrels over anything.

Without Prussia through the de facto vassalisation of Denmark after 1864 in OTL being a convenient blockade of the Baltic exits the British and Russians are likely to clash over Denmark as they did over Crimea/Black Sea exits.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

[LordKalvan]

A strange idea: Napoleon stays on Elba, but Bonapartists back all the insurrectional movements. In 1821 (ok, a bit long in the tooth, but this nappy has had 7 years in Elba to rest and recovery) Nappy lands in Southern Italy and takes command of the insurrectionists...

[Anaxagoras]

Important question: how long would Napoleon have lived? If he did indeed die of stomach cancer, he likely would have died around the same time as he did in OTL. But if he actually died of arsenic poisioning on St. Helena, he might have lived a good deal longer than he did in OTL.

[LordKalvan]

Originally Posted by Anaxagoras

Important question: how long would Napoleon have lived? If he did indeed die of stomach cancer, he likely would have died around the same time as he did in OTL. But if he actually died of arsenic poisioning on St. Helena, he might have lived a good deal longer than he did in OTL.

I am a fan of the rsenic conspiracy. Anyway, the Hundred Days and Waterloo would in any case weaken his fibre a lot