Cortés kills Narváez at Veracruz, 1520

What if the great conquistador Hernán Cortés decides to kill Pánfilo de Narváez when he defeats his small army of 1,100 men at Cēmpoalātl (Cempoala) in May 1520, instead of taking him prisoner?

After a successful night ambush, Cortés captures Narváez and is overcome with anger as Narváez describes how Cortés is wanted for treason against the Spanish Empire. When his enemy begins to describe how he'll be executed when he's caught, Cortés loses control. He unsheathes his sword and stabs him in the gut. Realizing that Narváez won’t die quickly from his first wound he stabs him a second time with a thrust to the vital organs. Narváez bleeds out and dies shortly thereafter.

His men are shocked; it wasn’t good form to kill a fellow Spaniard in cold blood, especially in response to being condemned as a traitor to the Spanish Empire. It's almost like Cortés knows that he is a criminal and accepts it. The unnerving and disheartening nature of it all makes convincing Narváez’s men to follow Cortés to gold and glory a little bit more difficult, but it happens anyway. He leads them back to Tenochtitlan where Alvarado has pissed off the Aztecs by causing a massacre during a religious festivity. On the trip back, though, the memory of murdering Narváez pushes Hernán Cortés to a dark place. He begins to take very seriously a plan that has been knocking around his head for a while: taking the great Indian metropolis for himself instead of handing it over to King Carlos I after he's done conquering it. It seems like he’d increase his chances of living if he just outright rebels against his homeland.

There are so many damn butterflies possible during the events to come that this darker, more rebellious Cortés might not even be as successful as he was in OTL. Take La Noche Triste, for instance, which is coming up fast. The timeline could easily change to “WI Cortés and his men are massacred in 1520?” which we've talked about before. Could this different Cortés decide to take a different route in escaping from Tenochtitlan, perhaps along the north causeway which would involve a longer route through the city, but a safer one and a shorter distance to Tlaxcala on the other side? Perhaps the southern causeway? If they still decide to take the shorter western route out of the city, they could be killed, and it is very likely Alvarado will die. His escape in OTL was very lucky. Maybe Cortés’ altered objectives cause him to avoid overburdening himself and his men with the gold and treasures of the palace and more Spaniards would survive. But, the Battle of Otumba might not be butterflied away and that was a dangerous time as well for the Spanish.

Once he arrives in Tlaxcala, it is likely he will succeed in re-establishing his alliance, but what about the reinforcements he received from the Spanish colonies at this time? It is estimated that in OTL nearly 500 Spaniards joined Cortés group in the interval between La Noche Triste and the Siege of Tenochtitlan, and they were supplied intermittently with horses, harquebuses, crossbows and cannons from Veracruz. Is it possible he will receive less reinforcements or even no resupply whatsoever if it is discovered in Cuba that he had murdered Narváez? I mean, in OTL it was already known that Narváez had been imprisoned at Veracruz, but murder could be different. I assume most of that resupply wasn’t official, rather, it was provided by Cortés’ friends and allies in the Caribbean, but news of murder could have spurred Velazquez to take an even harsher stance against Cortés and limit resupply.

Even if he does get his reinforcements and supplies, the siege of Tenochtitlan could have gone awry. The rebellious tributary states were ready to leave their alliance with the Spanish with the first notice of failure at the battlefront. Cortés himself faced some dangerous moments when he could have lost his life, and without their ingenious leader, the Spanish would have been forced to flee to Veracruz and few would have survived.

What if the news of Cortés murdering Narváez in cold blood leads to a formal response from King Carlos I himself? If Velazquez sends word immediately in June 1520, Carlos I could be informed by the end of the year. He would likely send some kind of expedition to arrest the rebel conquistador, a small army of at least 3,000 men I would think and possibly more than that. Such a force could arrive at Cuba by July of 1521 and make landfall at Veracruz by August, just as Cortés might be finishing up his conquest. And, provided that Cortés is still around and has attained victory over the Aztecs in Tenochtitlan, what might happen if Cortés decides to turn his forces against this punitive expedition?

We’ve all seen Cuauhtemoc’s awesome timeline concerning a turncoat Cortés, but even he would admit that he has to go to considerable lengths in order to procure such an easy and graceful set-up to nation-building. Without pushing the timeline towards any one direction, what would likely happen if Hernán Cortés decides to turn against the Spanish throne?

This is all just food for thought so please; any and all kinds of comments are welcome even if you don’t answer any of the questions I’ve asked directly.

Working out the Butterflies

I am estimating that there is a 60% chance Cortés still takes the western causeway, a 30% chance he changes his mind and goes north, and a 10% chance he takes the southern causeway. Using random.org to generate random numbers the result is: OTL decision, Cortés will take the western causeway.

Okay, but might he avoid encumbering himself and his men with so much treasure because of his altered state of mind? I estimate a 75% he will still be overly greedy and make the same mistake as in OTL. Generating random numbers: yes, he foolishly orders the maximum amount of treasure to be taken with him on his flight from Tenochtitlan.

So far so good. Who dies then during La Noche Triste? I think Cortés and the others on horses had a good chance of escaping, they just formed a vanguard party and left the rest of their group to try their luck at making a run for it. There's no reason to butterfly the casualty rate just because Cortés has diverged psychologically from OTL, as he made the same escape plans and left the soldiers to fend for themselves. It was very likely at some point that Aztec sentries would detect their departure. What could be butterflied, however, is who dies. Gonzalo de Sandoval was part of the vanguard, as was Diego de Ordaz and Francisco de Lugo, so they live. Malinche was heavily protected close to the vanguard as well, along with the two priests Father Olmedo and Father Díaz. But what about the others? I don’t want this to become “Cortés Dies during La Noche Triste” so it is a given that he lives during this episode. The other important people are fair game though. I give each of them a 60% chance of survival, much higher than the regular foot soldier’s chance of survival. Using random.org for random numbers… Wow, better than I thought. Pedro de Alvarado perishes, but Velázquez de León, the other captain of the rearguard, survives, a swap of OTL. Also counted amongst the survivors were Alonso de Ávila, Cristóbal de Olid, Martín López, Jerónimo de Aguilar, one of the most skilled horsemen, Lares (unlike OTL), and the astrologer Botello (unlike OTL). Montezuma’s son Chimapopoca still dies, but his sister does not (unlike OTL). I think the most important change in all of this is the death of Alvarado and the survival of Velázquez.

The Battle of Otumba might cause butterflies? I say it is unlikely, though the victory seemed miraculous. The Spanish didn’t do anything especially out of the ordinary, just launched their cavalry attacks and kept in a reinforced square formation. Aztec deaths could have been as high as 20,000 out of 40,000. The Spanish really did have an advantage with their cavalry and especially when Cortés leads a thrust against the highly-decorated Aztec general and the other feathered chiefs in his contingent, who quickly fell. This destroyed morale amongst the Aztec army and more importantly their organization, leading to a retreat. The same events will likely play out here.

By the time Cortés reaches Tlaxcala in this point of the story, there are only a few divergences from OTL. First of all, Hernán Cortés is a little more disturbed and paranoid. His men, especially those that were from the Narváez contingent are even less trusting of their captain-general. Pedro de Alvarado is dead and his position has been given to Velázquez de León. Do the Tlaxcala still push for an alliance? Yes, especially because Velázquez survives. He had a strong relationship with the Tlaxcala after marrying into the local nobility. In the short-term though, there is a strong rebellious streak among the Spanish soldiers. They form around the leadership of Cortés’ business partner, Andrés de Duero, a shrewd man who declares that the best option is to cut their losses, return to Veracruz and reassess their circumstances (as well as turn in Hernán Cortés as a traitor and murderer and establish new leadership for the expedition). Unlike in OTL, they don’t even write a letter expressing their opinions, they come out against him vocally, demanding a retreat.

There is a chance here that Andrés de Duero could have lead a successful mutiny, but Cortés had dealt with rebellion before. The man who burnt his own ships to keep his men motivated has only become more of a megalomaniac. Things get more heated than OTL: there are violent scuffles and some men desert the main group into the jungle, but Cortés establishes order by executing the ringleaders of the rebellion. One of them is Andrés. Cortés will not return to Cuba to face the gallows. He makes his OTL rousing speech about how "fortune favors the bold”, but it is a little less inspirational and a little more damn scary and intimidating.

Things could have gotten worse, but Cortés makes his OTL deal with his men. They’ll launch an offensive with the Tlaxcalans against the Aztec stronghold of Tepeaca, which they would need to anyway in order to return to Veracruz safely, and if it goes well, they’ll continue on their conquest. It sounds reasonable enough; the soldiers really have no reason not to follow through with it, and they might just get to bring some gold back with them to Veracruz after the battle. Any plans for a mutiny are kept dormant until after Tepeaca is taken. On the first of August the Spanish host with two thousand Tlaxcalan warriors depart to the southwest for another battle against the Aztecs.

This is the biggest examination on butterflies that ive ever seen.

Really? I'm sure there are some zoological journals out there that would impress you much more.

Retribution from Cuba?

No, not yet. La Villa Rica de la Vera Cruz, the settlement that Cortés had founded and which provided him resupply was under the command of a trusted captain, Alonso Caballero, who in OTL at least twice lured unsuspecting groups of Spanish into the port only to arrest them at sword-point and send them overland under guard to Cortés so that they could be used. All this he did with Narváez illegally imprisoned at Vera Cruz. In OTL, he was Narváez's jail keeper, and he must have at least imagined that he could be made into a traitor if Cortés didn't achieve what he said he could have. He was a rebel and a risk taker and seemed to enjoy taking unsuspecting Spanish hostage in order to press gang them into Cortés' army. This might have been because, once a jail keeper of Narváez, even by freeing him and informing Governor Velázquez of the situation he could still be condemned as a traitor. He had picked sides.

However, with Narváez dead, Caballero could plead ignorance and possibly still escape with his life if not reputation if he turned against Cortés. It doesn't happen. Alonso is still competing for gold and glory with his brothers Hernando and Diego who are involved in the government in Santo Domingo. To give up now on this expedition would mean going back to Santo Domingo empty-handed and Alonso Caballero would rather take the risk that Cortés would make him rich. He keeps the information to himself, and by September 1520 Governor Velázquez is still in the dark.

Velázquez sent a henchman of his, Pedro Barba, to reinforce the Narváez expedition which Velázquez felt had been successful in capturing Cortés and conquering New Spain. Alonso Caballero lured them into the port, pretending to be part of the Narváez group, but when the moment was right he and his men held them up and took away their weapons. Everything of value, including Pedro Barba and thirteen soldiers, a stallion and a mare, is sent westwards to the captain-general Hernán Cortés. When Pedro Barba asks what happened to Narváez, Caballero merely replies that he is dead, without giving more information. Pedro Barba and his men don't ask many more questions, and luckily enough for Cortés they declare their loyalty to his expedition when they get to him (as in OTL).

The next group is not so lucky. It is another supply ship for Narváez from Cuba and it is loaded with much needed cordage for fabricating crossbow strings. Its captain and fourteen soldiers are commandeered by Alonso Caballero and before they can be marched off to the west, it is learned that Narváez was killed by Cortés when they came into contact. Halfway to Cortés’ camp, fearing that they will also be executed by Cortés, the captain and five soldiers try to make a run for it. Two men are killed by the guards, the rest disappear into the jungle and are never seen again.

Similar incidents happen once or twice afterwards with other pressganged Spanish men, unlike in OTL. Almost all of the supplies meant for Narváez make it to Cortés’ camp, thanks to Alonso’s loyalty, but not all of its men. Rumors keep on spreading that Cortés is paying only lip service to the Spanish crown, and will kill anyone who wants to make a big deal about it. The rumors prove absolutely true. To most it doesn’t bother them… don’t all conquistadors pay only lip service to Spain? Maybe, but most aren’t planning a declaration of independence from the Spanish Empire.

Still, Governor Velázquez can do nothing to inform King Carlos V of Cortés’ killing of Narváez, because every time he sends a ship to figure out what is going on, no one returns. After October he begins to suspect the worse, that either Cortés or the natives have destroyed Narváez’ expedition, but even if he could confirm these hunches, bad weather will prevent a ship from sailing to Spain until March. No one in the Spanish Empire knows what is happening in the lands of the Mexica.

And, by the way, there is no second letter from Hernán Cortés to King Carlos V on October 30, 1520. In his mind, he's already passed the point of no return. It isn’t even worth the effort to act as if he is loyal to the crown, maybe to some of his men, but he won't write a letter to a man he is sure is already mustering an army to send against him. This means that from August 1521 on, when Carlos would have been somewhat reassured of Cortés’ loyalty, he isn’t, and that’s when trouble starts.

Tepeaca and the Segura de la Frontera

Cortés and his men take Tepeaca easily as in OTL. He also lets his Tlaxcalan allies raze, plunder, and kill as many of their enemies as they want. The scene is so terrible that it sickens even the Spanish, who had already caused a number of massacres themselves. Staring out over the carnage and recognizing fear and distrust on his men’s faces, Hernán Cortés realizes something important. If he is really going to go through with this and become the Emperor of the Mexica, he’s got to start depending on the natives. The visions of good Spanish families filling empty Aztec cities are gone. That won’t be possible now. It is the last massacre he impassively turns a blind eye to. After all, Alvarado had massacred the natives in cold blood and what had the Creator done in return? God had struck him down during La Noche Triste. Cortés needed the favor of the Lord to survive here in this kingdom that would be his, among these people who he would make good Christians. No more massacres. It’s already established that he is willing to execute any Spaniard who complains and suggests they return to Cuba, so here is a new rule from the new increasingly authoritarian Hernán Cortés: you kill enough innocent Indians in cold blood, you’ll be taken into the jungle and executed. That would apply to the Tlaxcalans, too, as soon as he could talk to Maxixcatzin and the other Tlaxcalan leaders. Taking slaves was fine, taking the spoils of war okay, but no killing innocents and certainly no cannibalism. As he is pondering all of this, he forgets to go through with his plan to brand the faces of the prisoners of war taken at Tepeaca.

The edict doesn't put an end to tragedy and barbarity among the Spanish, but the large massacres don't happen. When Cortés is presented with the two thousand men of the city of Quechula that had surrendered before the army of Cristobal de Olid, he doesn't have them lined up and killed. Instead they are made into slaves. The other similar outright massacres at Izucar, Tecamacalco, Acapetlahuacan do not happen, even though many are killed in battle, taken into slavery, and the Tlaxcalans do grab some to be sacrificially cannibalized. The Spanish are still able create a terrible reputation for themselves in the surrounding region, but the edge is taken off, and that will be very important in the future.

The stronghold is renamed La Segura de la Frontera and it becomes Cortés base of operations. The next item on the list was to take control of the surrounding region in order to cut Tenochtitlan from the eastern sea. His men take few casualties, especially now that smallpox is tearing through the region weakening all of their enemies, and more importantly they are rich once more. Gold, slaves, and other treasures begin to fill the treasury at former Tepeaca, and there is much more of it now that Cortés has stopped sending it back east. The allegiance of the Spanish under Cortés control is assured once more, though there are still mutinous whispers if you make friends in the right circles.

While this was underway, supplies came in from Veracruz. This included 180 new Spanish soldiers (instead of 192), 21 horses, weapons and ammunition, and five ships, three of which had belonged to Francisco de Garay, the current governor of Jamaica. What to do with the ships? Some suggested he send back treasure and men to Santo Domingo in order to convince the colonial government of his loyalty and the importance of his campaign for the Spanish Empire. They could also buy needed supplies, horses, and advertise the wealth of the Mexica’s empire in order to attract more volunteers. Cortés says no. What about Alonso Caballero, one of your loyal subordinates? His brothers are influential in the city government of Santo Domingo… surely if you are afraid of having all of this declared illegal, Alonso could go in secret and procure supplies through his brothers. Cortés shuts this suggestion down as well. He couldn’t risk it. He was becoming ever more paranoid. In his mind, the ships would be confiscated along with any men and treasure he would send with it and used against him.

Instead, four ships are sent to Jamaica, two which had just been captured and two others that had been captured from Narváez, none of which belonged to Garay. The others are beached and stripped of valuables. They go to purchase what horses, mares, weapons and ammunition they can from Governor Garay himself. They have a lot of treasure, but Jamaica isn’t a large island with lots to sell. Garay at some point comes into contact with the two ships and inquires concerning his colonial project up north. He knows full well that some of the men on the ships were part of it. The captains declare that his colony was attacked by natives and all of his ships lost at sea in a storm. Luckily they were able to pick up some of the survivors that had pledged their allegiance to them. Garay doesn’t trust men loyal to Cortés. One sailor manages to get a short conversation in with Garay: the Spanish have resorted to cannibalism in Mexico, Cortés has sworn an oath to worship heathen gods and attacks any Spanish vessel that approaches Veracruz. As soon as the ships leave Governor Francisco de Garay writes a wordy letter to Governor Velázquez who would receive it that November. Unfortunately, the ship bearing the letter also has some Aztec gold that was attained during the transactions with Cortés’ men and the sailors are excited to share news of a city of gold that Cortés is preparing to invade.

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Damn, now I know why Cuauhtemoc started three different threads based on the adventures of Hernán Cortés: it is so fun! It would be cool to write this to an interactive audience though.

I don't intend to turn this into a long-term project though, I've got some other timelines to work on. This probably won't progress passed a weekend diversion. Comments are welcome though.

I don't know enough about the setting to offer any meaningful commentary, but it certainly is an interesting read!

Hnau said:

I don't intend to turn this into a long-term project though, I've got some other timelines to work on. This probably won't progress passed a weekend diversion. Comments are welcome though.

Click to expand...

Diversion or not, this was absolutely splendid and a joy to read. Thank you for writing it.

Some notes concerning the sequence of events

- In OTL, Pánfilo de Narváez was thoroughly anti-Cortés and believed him to be a traitor the Spanish crown... until he was captured. Then he pretended to "respect and admire" the victories of Cortés, most likely in order to be freed. Instead he was imprisoned. Why is he so vocal when he is finally captured by Cortés ITTL that Cortés is a traitor and that he will be hanged before the year is over? In OTL, during the battle between the two Spanish groups, Narváez took a pike to the eye and was bleeding heavily. His own mortality seemed very finite and so he decided to grovel to Cortés and everyone around him. In this timeline, the Point of Divergence is that Narváez narrowly dodges the pike that would have extracted his eye and instead surrenders with merely burnt feet (due to when the shrine he was holding up in was lit on fire by Cortés' men). He surrenders, but he is much more bold and pissed-off than panicked. It's the wrong attitude to have when he is brought in shackles to Cortés: he takes two stabs to the chest.

- I forgot to mention that Andrés de Duero, who was much more mutinous ITTL following La Noche Triste, and who Cortés hanged before his assault on Tepeaca, was a priest as well as a businessman. Ooops! Not only do Cortés' men behind his back whisper that he is a cannibal, a chapel-burner and murderer. He's also a priest-killer. You can see how, little-by-little, Cortés is forced further into a corner with his worse reputation. At least the natives are slightly less terrified of him, thanks to his insistence that there be no more massacres, but, that's going to change to when he has a less than nice talk with Xicotenga the Elder, chief of the Tlaxcala...

Nervous Laughs in Tlaxcala

It is December. Just after a phenomenal, showy ceremony in Tlaxcala in which Xicotenga the Elder and his son are baptized as Christians, Hernán Cortés takes the aged, blind elder of the Tlaxcala nation aside and, through Jerónimo de Aguilar and Malinche, communicates a reprimand against the Tlaxcalan soldiers that have been serving alongside his men. They’ve been killing innocent people in the most terrible fashion and eating the meat off of their bones afterward. Xicotenga frowns. "So what?" he thinks. Cortés angrily tells him that now that he is a Christian, he has got to put an end to the ritual cannibalism among the Tlaxcalan warriors or the Christ God will strike them all down before they can get to Tenochtitlan. Looting and slaving is fine, killing innocents and eating them is not.

Xicotenga the Elder is frustrated. It is a poor way to be introduced to a new faith. But, he passes the information along to the other chiefs and generals, who are more shocked and baffled by Cortés demand than he was initially. Put an end to cannibalism? Eating one’s enemies was a way to show gratitude to the gods and appease them. Even ignoring possible divine wrath, how could they sell it to their warriors? Some of the generals tell their men, which spooks them… when Cortés asks for men, if there will be no cannibalism, they are going to sit out for whatever campaign the Spanish are planning. Other generals tell their soldiers that it’s not exactly a rule to NOT cannibalize your enemies, but you’ve got to do it far from Spanish eyes, because they worship other gods. It is controversial and offensive, but nothing to keep men of war from the glory of combat. Other generals just flat-out don’t communicate the new rules to their armies. But word gets around. It is somewhat demoralizing to the Tlaxcalans, but they are already involved too deep in this war against the Mexica. They’ve got to follow through as long as the crazy Spanish were giving them an edge against their ancestral enemies.

Later, Cortés speaks in private with Chichimecatecle, who has been selected to lead the Tlaxcalans in the coming offensive against Tenochtitlan, after HIS baptism. The Spanish want more order among his warriors, and if any of them are found eating or sacrificing the innocent or causing unnecessary chaos amongst the enemy, Chichimecatecle is to put them to death however he wishes or the Spanish will do it for them. Chichimecatecle is pro-Spanish and a friend, but this is a challenge. Fortunately for Cortés, this Tlaxcalan general will uphold the new edict and declare it amongst his troops… but he’ll only execute those that have overwhelming evidence against them. In reality, it cuts down considerably on cannibalism and wanton destruction from the Tlaxcalans, but does not outright remove it.

Meanwhile, Hernán Cortés reviews his troops. They look fine, but they have very little in gunpowder. He has eight efficient field guns (instead of nine in OTL), and out of the 520 Spanish foot soldiers mustered, eighty are harquebusiers and crossbowmen. By this point, there are 30 Spaniards missing from Cortés group in comparison to OTL. These were either executed following the Duero mutiny, deserted into the jungle, were hung because they killed too many innocent natives in broad daylight, or have been killed in combat where they wouldn’t have been in OTL due to the debilitating effects of low morale. At least none of the harquebuses or crossbows has been lost. It should be noted that those counted among these dead include all of the captains of Narváez’ expedition, to the dismay of many who had beforehand been under their authority. They just couldn’t stop talking about how much they wanted to return to Santo Domingo… There are thirty-eight ready cavalrymen instead of forty IOTL. Morale had increased since they had last gathered in Tlaxcala following La Noche Triste: the men had gold and slaves again and Cortés’ host had claimed the eastern half of Mexico for his personal rule… I mean, for Spain. Yeah, their commander was crazy and scary and getting crazier and scarier, but, other than that, what was there to be upset about? At least he was a military genius.

They are now ready to begin the first phase of their offensive against Tenochtitlan. They would march up the mountains to Texcoco, one of the cities of the Triple Alliance. The Spanish hosts along with their Tlaxcalan allies are assembled in the central square of Tlaxcala and Hernán Cortés bellows out a fine speech which is translated by Malinche to Nahuatl. “The principal reason for us coming to these parts is to glorify and preach the Faith of Jesus Christ, even though at the same time it brings us honor and profit, which infrequently come in the same package.” So far perfectly OTL. But later on something is different. Instead of claiming that in marching against the Mexica they are “punishing rebellious vassals of Spain”, Cortés instead says that the reason is to “punish the murderers of Spanish citizens and the bloodthirsty tyrants of Mexico”. In fact, not once does he mention King Carlos, Spain, or even Castile. He says the word “Spanish” a lot, that these lands belong “to the Spanish”, but there is no mention of the crown. It is much more directed towards the natives than in OTL and makes up for the demoralizing restriction against their cannibalistic tradition. The Mexica aren’t evil because they are rebellious against the Spanish crown, they are evil because they are unjust rulers that have kept the land in bondage for too long. The Spanish aren’t the good guys because they are the legal authorities in the land, but because they are followers of Jesus Christ.

He then finishes this speech up by laying down a few ground rules. No blaspheming, no quarrelling, no wagering away your horse or weapon, no raping the women, no overburdening yourself with treasure, no killing the innocent, follow the Ten Commandments, yada yada yada let’s go to Texcoco! At least, that’s how it would have happened in OTL. ITTL, Cortés gets this gleam in his eye that is even gleamier than usual and says, “…or you’ll be hung.” There’s whoops and hollers like in OTL, but ITTL there are also some nervous laughs behind it all.

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You guys liking my more humane, yet more totalitarian Cortés?

The Devil is So in the Details: Yep, here's a summary of the first month and a half of the Siege of Tenochtitlan

By now you should have noticed that while there were some possible significant butterflies that could have happened during La Noche Triste, at least from a strategic point of view, by the time Cortés gets to Tlaxcala with Martín López, there’s really nothing stopping him from following his OTL strategy. Pacifying the eastern Mexica while building up his forces for a general siege of Tenochtitlan, sending López to build a secret fleet of brigantines… why wouldn’t this different Cortés follow such a plan? If anything he is even more motivated to take Tenochtitlan because he is more paranoid, and this is the best way to do it. It should be said, though, that there is a delay in certain things: slightly fewer men, fewer horses, less ammunition and a more paranoid Hernán Cortés means a few more days of planning and training. Instead of leaving Tlaxcala on December 26 Cortés decides to wait until New Year’s Day.

The five hundred Spanish and the ten thousand Tlaxcalans head west, climbing the mountains that separated Tlaxcala from the Valley of Mexico. They arrive in Coatepec unmolested. Cortés is visited by Ixtlilxochitl, the brother of Coanocochtzin the current king of Texcoco, as in OTL, who offers his allegiance to Cortés in return for his brother’s throne. Later, as the host approaches Texcoco, scouts return bearing news of peaceful chieftains who wish to surrender the city. Cortés was suspicious of subterfuge at this point and ITTL he will be even more so, but he receives them. They report that King Coanocochtzin desires an alliance with the Spanish. Right… well, if Coanocochtzin wants an alliance so bad, why don’t they send him a huge charitable offering of Aztec gold? The messengers shrug and say that if they come into the city they can talk it over with their king. Now Cortés is sure it is a trap. He takes the messengers hostage and sends more scouts into the city to see what they can find. In OTL they just barged in that day.

When they do cautiously enter Texcoco on January 7, instead of a trap, Hernán Cortés and his men find a ghost town. No sign of Coanocochtzin either. What happened? If they had been there a day earlier, they would have sighted the exodus of the city’s populace towards Tenochtitlan. The rage Cortés would have felt at being deceived would have led him to brand and enslave the small remainder of the populace and burn down some random buildings. Here he is disappointed, but more mystified than angry. Where the hell did everyone go? How could he base his invasion out of Texcoco without any people in it to supply his troops? People were still enslaved, the city was still looted for food, idols were smashed, but at least there was no burning or branding. The next day the lords of three nearby tribute towns (that had also been evacuated) arrived at the city to beg forgiveness of Cortés. They had been forced by the Mexica to abandon their homes, and now they wanted an alliance. Sure thing, just get back to your homes and supply my troops! Not everyone came back, but many did, unwilling to spend another day in the woods and hillsides. A few days later Cortés finds Ixtlilxochitl and makes him Texcoco’s puppet ruler.

What doesn’t get burned down? Well, two beautiful palaces that contain the royal archives of Texcoco aren’t burned down. Many priceless maps, codices and genealogical records are thus preserved. That’s good, right?

Hernán Cortés finds himself in complete control of Texcoco and they hadn’t even come to bloodshed yet. So far so good. Slaves are instructed to begin the expansion of the canals that will be needed to launch the brigantines that will be built here. Unfortunately, the people of the city are only able to supply the soldiers for so long. After eleven days, the Tlaxcalans are complaining that they will begin to starve. Cortés decides that they need to launch a raid against Tenochtitlan for the purpose of stealing food and treasure. Their target will be Iztapalapa, a satellite of Tenochtitlan, most of which was built on stilts over the lake. Cortés, ever more paranoid, brings 200 Spanish soldiers and 8,000 Tlaxcalans and Texcocans for the raid, more than in OTL. They face minor opposition in the beautiful waterborne city of Iztapalapa… it is easy to take, almost too easy. Then Cortés notices that the ground at his feet begins to fill with water. It was a trap! The Mexica had opened the dike of Nezhualcoyotl, sending salt water pouring into Iztapalapa. They were going to sink the city in order to drown Cortés inside of it.

Cortés came close to disaster at this part in OTL. Had we butterflied his realization that the city was sinking just an hour or two later, they all might have been drowned. Cortés is, however, as we mentioned, more paranoid here and comes to this realization even sooner. He leads a rapid retreat back to Texcoco. There are two less Spanish casualties and a horse is saved, but quite a few more Tlaxcalan ones because of their increased numbers. More of the gunpowder is saved. Otherwise, it wasn’t a very successful raid: very little was looted. At least they came out of it with their lives. In the long-term though, it was a victory for the enemies of the Mexica. All throughout the valley it is declared that Cortés sunk Iztapalapa! What destructive power! Emperor Cuauhtémoc slaps his forehead and makes a formal declaration that it was HE, in fact, which had sunk Iztapalapa, but those that believe him just raise an eyebrow. You did what to your own city? Without killing a single Spaniard? FAIL.

Food problems in Texcoco would soon come to an end, though. Messengers arrived at c palace reporting the advance of a major Mexican force on four villages loyal to the Spanish. Cristóbal de Olid and Velázquez de León go with Cortés with a force of two-hundred-and-fifty to defend the villages and realize that the Mexica are there to take the large maize plantations that are ready to harvest. Tenochtitlan is starving as well, after all, with all of those refugees. The Mexica are defeated and Cortés promises that forever after the villages can depend on the Spanish to defend their plantations. Afterward, when Texcoco runs short on food, they merely send for maize from these villages, though in the months ahead there will be further Mexican raids on the territory.

On Cortés’ return messengers from Chalco are there to inform that they will swear allegiance to Cortés if he could liberate their city from the Mexican garrison that had been built there. Cortés sends his second-in-command, Gonzalo de Sandoval to win a new ally to their side. The Aztec foot soldiers meet Sandoval on the open plan and are easily stricken down by the Spanish cavalry. A force of Tlaxcalans are left to guard and maintain control of the city, about 1,000 more than in OTL. Sandoval and Lugo return to Texcoco with the son of Chalco’s deceased emperor as a spoil of war. Cortés performs the acts of inauguration himself for the young prince and declares him the lord of Chalco, Tlamanalco, and Ayotzingo (in OTL, there were two princes, but… butterflies).

There are a lot of Mexican prisoners of war by now and not a lot of food to go around. Instead of sending some of them to Cuauhtémoc in order to suggest peace they are sold as slaves to the Spanish.

As soon as Sandoval returns to Texcoco, Cortés orders him to lead a small force to Tlaxcala in order to check on the progress of the brigantines, which should be on their way by now. Cortés is more rushed than before due to his later start on his campaign: Sandoval is not to march through Zultepec which has a small Mexica garrison. They’ll destroy them later. Sandoval finds Martín López already on his way over the mountains with fifty-thousand Tlaxcalan porters bearing food, supplies, and the planks and timber shaped for assembly into brigantines. They arrive in Texcoco on February 16 and immediately begin putting together the ships in the channels previously dug in the vicinity of the city. The plan was to roll out the brigantines all on the same day and thus catch the Aztecs in surprise that they will attack Tenochtitlan by naval assault. Cortés orders Martín López to finish the assembly of the ships in fifteen days; in the meantime, he will lead a force to the other side of the lake in order to conduct reconnaissance and perhaps see if an ally could be made out of Tlacopan.

Let’s review the divergences so far:

- Though there was a six-day delay on the campaign and they spend a day outside of Texcoco where in OTL they didn't, by February 16 we are effectively aligned back with OTL as the brigantines arrive only a day later and this event kind of guides Cortés’ strategy.

- Texcoco is being ruled by Ixtlilxochitl from the beginning as a puppet leader, which means he doesn’t participate in the offensives, which only leads to slightly more Texcocan casualties during the various raids. Much less of Texcoco was burned down by the Spanish and people there are a little less terrified of the Spanish, which could be a good thing or a bad thing. Ixtlilxochitl is a better leader than the two boy-kings that would have been put on the throne in OTL, so Texcoco is in a better place all-around.

- Many more Tlaxcalans are left in Chalco to protect it than in OTL, and the possessions of Chalco are ruled by a single son of the deceased emperor, rather than two.

- A few hundred more Tlaxcalan casualties from the raid on Iztapalapa. Also, the Tlaxcalans are behaving themselves much better, though they still go crazy once and a while. They are somewhat more demoralized than in OTL… Cortés speech was good and all, but still no authorized cannibalism and some of them are in fact hung when they do without being careful.

- Zultepec and the surrounding region has yet to be fully pacified, though it isn’t that strong of a region. The Spanish just haven’t had the time to formally force them to submit.

- While more gunpowder was saved at Iztapalapa and one less horse was lost, Cortés force is still slightly smaller, less motivated and less supplied compared to OTL. Effectively it hasn’t caused too many problems, as Cortés sends out in his offensives even more men than OTL and leaves fewer behind to manage Texcoco, which seems to counteract against the less spirited morale… but eventually it will catch up to him.

- Less burning and raping and killing of innocents than in OTL, though by this point there wouldn't have been too much of that by February 15. The divergences with this will catch up to us later.

- No peace overtures to Cuauhtémoc, no return of prisoners of war, as such, quite a few more slaves to put to work in Texcoco.

Trouble in Tlacopan and Texcoco

Hernán Cortés will be at the head of the army to take Tlacopan; he had been sitting in Texcoco long enough waiting for the return of Gonzalo de Sandoval. Part of me wants to say his more cautious nature causes him ITTL to send a subordinate, but, no, better to prove his worth as a military commander to the men. He does delay leaving Texcoco for five days though, and with an army of 30,000 Tlaxcalans (the higher end of the 15,000 to 30,000 he is reported to have taken in OTL). They take the northern route around the lake, which takes them at first to the city of Xaltocán. There really isn’t too much for butterflies during the combat, they still take the city and take with what gold and valuable goods they can find, but they burn only a few military-related structures rather than the majority of the city.

For the next few days Cortés takes his army around the northern headland of Lake Xaltocán and finds one more abandoned city after the next. The inhabitants have dispersed after being warned of his advance. Most residents have left to seek refuge in Tlacopan, the same city that Cortés intended to take. In OTL it was supposed that Cortés went to take Tlacopan at this point in order to initiate diplomacy with Cuauhtémoc and perhaps punish the residents for their participation in La Noche Triste. Here, his motivation is completely strategic: Tlacopan does have, after all, the shortest causeway into Tenochtitlán. The Aztecs are waiting for their arrival and have prepared a number of ditches in order to deny the Spanish their advantage with cavalry. It doesn’t change things much, though, the Mexica ranks are broken up and Cortés leads his army into the abandoned city center and lodges them in the large houses there.

When Cortés wakes up the following morning, it is to hollers and whoops of Indians, and he fears an attack, especially when he smells smoke in the air. What was going on? His subordinates look up at him fearfully… the, uh, Tlaxcalans are burning the city. The temptation had been too much for them, this was, after all, one of the great cities of the Triple Alliance and an ancient enemy of the Tlaxcalans. They hadn’t been able to burn Texcoco down, at least Tlacopan would suffice. What would Cortés do? Well, Cortés is pissed. He goes to Chichimecatecle and tells him to order his men to cease and desist. Chichimecatecle is Christian now, yes, and he had agreed to punish those of his men who cannibalized their victims, but this was Tlacopan! Of course they were going to burn it down, at least most of it. That’s when the shit hits the fan. Cortés takes a contingent of the Spanish, goes to the nearest shrine that is being burnt down, and orders his men to arrest the nearest Tlaxcalans that look to be the culprits. The order to arrest turns into the order to attack and it doesn’t take long for Tlaxcalan warriors to start shouting, “Castile has betrayed us! The Spanish have allied themselves with Tlacopan!”

Chichimecatecle has his hand forced. It would be suicide for them to kill the Spanish now; it would destroy the entire anti-Mexica alliance they had been building around the Valley of Mexico. He had to side with Cortés and take control of his men. Throughout the morning he leads his captains throughout the city to take control of the troops, keep them from attacking the Spanish, convince them that they were still allied with Cortés, and to stop burning the city. In the end, the two sides come back together when the Aztecs launch a raid at this inopportune moment, but the situation is not good. Nearly a hundred Tlaxcalan warriors have been killed, with many more wounded. Many of the Spanish had also been wounded; though none killed (they had the element of surprise). Yeah, the Spanish were really cool guys and all, helping the Tlaxcalans take out the Mexica and all, but killing a hundred of their fellow warriors? That puts a damper on a relationship.

Cortés had wanted to lead a raid along the causeway into Tenochtitlán and perhaps see if he could find some of the treasure they had abandoned there (what was he thinking? It’s been almost a year, the Aztecs have cleaned up all traces of La Noche Triste by now), but now it seems the best thing to do is to return to Texcoco and forget the whole thing ever happened. They spend another two days in the city, looting but definitely not burning anything, destroying a few Mexica raids here and there, and then they make their way back around the lake to Texcoco. Cortés thus avoids an OTL battle on the causeway that would have lost him several Spanish soldiers, but would have also educated him considerably on the danger of fighting on the causeways without the support of brigantines.

When Cortés and the Tlaxcalans pass Xaltocán, they are met by a small band of Tlaxcalans and a Spanish page. The page reports that there has been an insurrection in Texcoco. It almost happened in OTL, in which at this point a soldier tipped off Cortés that a mutiny had been planned on his return which involving nearly all of the Spaniards that had been left there. Here, there are only 200 rebellious Spaniards instead of 300, thanks to more fear of repercussion and fewer numbers, and with worse leadership: the ringleaders like Antonio de Villafaña who IOTL led the mutiny have already been singled out and hung in the last few months. But they are much more motivated to abandon ship due to Cortés’ increasingly totalitarian and treasonous manner. They managed to isolate Cortés second-in-command Gonzalo de Sandoval and have him assassinated. In the resulting chaos, the mutineers prepared their things, took as much treasure as they could and five horses, and left Texcoco for the quickest route to Veracruz. The remaining loyal Spaniards, only thirty strong and led by Andrés de Tapia, manage to gain the protection of King Ixtlilxochitl and the Texcocans, but they dare not pursue them.

When Hernán Cortés finally arrives at Texcoco after marching his troops hard through the night, the mutinous Spanish are already three days gone. The Texcocans and the Tlaxcalans are stunned with the recent turn of events: they needed the Spanish in order to keep the Mexica from delivering retribution, and now the Spanish were divided amongst themselves. They would help of course, in any way possible. Among the Tlaxcalan warriors, news is told of the deaths at Tlacopan. See? That’s what happens when you don’t ceremoniously cannibalize your enemies! The Spanish just don’t get it! To Cortés his biggest worry is now Martín López. Is the shipbuilder still alive? Yes, he had been protected by the Tlaxcalans, but since the mutiny no work has continued on the brigantines.

If you thought the earlier divergences were interesting, this one will be the most impacting so far. Cortés curses at his poor luck... if Sandoval had just been able to keep the men in line for another week or two, they could have launched the brigantines on schedule and taken the city by summertime. Now there was one more delay to this assault. Cortés would have to do what he always did when there were other Spanish soldiers in Mexico that didn’t heed his command: he would seek them out and eliminate them. Velázquez de León is now his second-in-command, and he is to sit tight in Texcoco, oversee the continued assembly of the brigantines with eighty Spanish soldiers and keep the Tlaxcalans and Texcocans under control. Hernán Cortés and Cristóbal de Olid will ride out with all but two of the horses to punish the mutineers. May God have mercy on them all.

The Battle of La Segura de la Frontera

Well, time to continue this story that all of you are enjoying so much. Jerks. You know, just because you all are such a great audience, I am going to cut down on the details in every installment. My only purpose now is to finish it to get it out of my head and go to work on Bronze Age New World v2.0 or A Modern Mormon Missionary in Antebellum America or some other project. Do I sound bitter? You’re damn right I’m bitter.

Where were we? Ah, yes, 200 mutinous conquistadores have left Texcoco and are marching to the coast with Cortés hot on their tails. By now I’ve done enough research to figure out who is actually leading them, and it isn’t someone you’d think: Leonel de Cervantes, a Castilian noble who in OTL was a supporter of Cortés, but wanted to return home to bring back his seven daughters to wed to the other conquistadores. He is more concerned with his nobility and landholdings than this venture, and fears he may never return if he doesn’t lead the mutiny. Other leaders include Gonzalo de Mexia and Pedro de Briones who in OTL would have rebelled years later. The group has only five horses, so they don’t move as fast as Cortés’ group which has thirty horses. By the time they get to Tlaxcala, Cortés has made up good time and is right behind them, perhaps a day. Cervantes stays long enough to surprise the Tlaxcalans and steal some food, in which he loses some soldiers, and then he orders the Spaniards forward towards La Segura de la Frontera. Why taking the southern route instead of the northern? The rebels desire to gain the allegiance of Francisco de Orozco and his men at La Segura which would give them a decisive advantage over Cortés. It is assumed that a battle is inevitable. When Hernán Cortés and Cristóbal de Olid arrive in Tlaxcala, the city is in chaos. It is suspected that the Spanish have betrayed their alliance. There is a scuffle with the soldiers of Cortés and it takes some hours before it can be successfully communicated that the Spaniards who ransacked the city were rebels.

Cortés knows he has lost his advantage by nightfall. He could continue the chase and catch the mutineers on the open road, but he is cautious. He doesn’t think he can deal with the mutineers the same way he did with Narváez, that is, with diplomacy then deception. He pleads with Xicotenga the Elder to give him five thousand men in order to bring the rebellion to an end. The Tlaxcalan leadership is pissed off. There are a few Tlaxcalans with Cortés’ group, and one of them leaks the news of the brawl the Tlaxcalans had with Cortés at Tlacopan. These Castilians are a pricy investment. But it is an investment that they’ve already committed to. No one in Tlaxcala wants to fight the rebel Spanish, and almost all of the experienced Tlaxcalan warriors are already occupying various cities on Lake Mexico. Nonetheless, they supply Cortés with food and 2,000 warriors… they better get back to Texcoco soon, though, it wouldn’t take much to destroy everything the Spanish-Tlaxcala alliance has been working for.

In two days Cortés is outside of La Segura de la Frontera with 2,000 Tlaxcalans, 230 Spanish soldiers and 30 horses. The rebels have indeed taken over the settlement and have put to use all of their weapons. Francisco de Orozco remained loyal to Cortés with a couple of other men which are now imprisoned. Scouts report something strange: the mutineers under Cervantes have grown to nearly 330 Spaniards with 25 horses! The only explanation had to be the arrival of untimely reinforcements from Veracruz. Cortés is not so sure now that he will be able to seize victory. Two messengers are sent in with the flag of truce in order to negotiate the surrender of the mutineers. Unlike Narváez, Cervantes orders the imprisonment of the messengers. The only way they’d be subdued would be by battle. More messengers are sent, but they too are captured. Cortés’ hand is forced. The mutineers have the advantage of the fortifications of La Segura, as well as its cannons and now more Spanish soldiers than Cortés and roughly the same number of horses. The only advantage Cortés has is the host of Tlaxcalan warriors. As usual, Cortés waits until night for a surprise attack, but the men under Cervantes are a little bit more careful than Narváez was. They have many sentries awake waiting for an attack. The Tlaxcalans and Spanish cavalry surge into La Segura and a massacre begins. The artillery is put to effective use, but the overwhelming numbers of the Tlaxcalans are more advantageous still. They soak up casualties and keep the mutineers on their feet even when Cortés orders tactical retreats. In the end, they force the rebels to surrender.

It isn’t an easy victory by far. Leonel de Cervantes knows about Cortés’ cavalry advantage and so prepares his men with a great number of pikes. Eight horses from both sides are killed in the fighting. The Tlaxcalans take hundreds dead. The Spanish on both sides take more casualties than they have in any battle for months: nearly thirty dead and many more wounded. Leonel de Cervantes, Gonzalo de Mexia, and Pedro de Briones and twelve other leaders are executed and all others imprisoned during the night.

Hernán Cortés discovers that the mutineers allied themselves with a group of 70 Spaniards that arrived in La Segura just a day before them. They are adventurers and treasure-hunters from Hispaniola that came to Veracruz looking to join Cortés’ expedition to take the fabled El Dorado, the City of Gold. They brought with them twenty horses, four of which are now dead. At this point in time in OTL, Cortés’ supporters did indeed send 200 Spanish soldiers and 60 horses, however, Cortés for almost a year has made very little effort to contact Santo Domingo and advertise his campaign, so the people that arrive aren’t organized, just self-interested profiteers who came following rumors. Many of these men are pardoned by Cortés, as they had been deceived by Cervantes and the other rebellious leaders. So, too, are pardoned the majority of the men of La Segura de la Frontera who were forced to join the mutiny once Orozco was put in chains. Indeed, it is probable that these 130 men who were in the wrong place in the wrong time contributed to the success of the Cortés loyalists due to their lack of motivation in the battle.

Cortés is quick to pardon others as well, knowing that his campaign in Tenochtitlan is now jeopardized due to lack of men and equipment. He keeps all of their names noted however, to keep an eye on them. All of those who participated in the rebellion in Texcoco are given lashes and have their gold taken away, but only 60 will be hauled back to Tlaxcala in chains. Cortés reinstates Francisco de Orozco as the commander of La Segura de la Frontera and leaves 40 soldiers with them, most of them wounded and those who’ve been exhausted by the campaign.

At Tlaxcala, a few days later, Cortés gives to Xicotenga the Elder a sign of his loyalty and trust: the 60 mutinous conquistadores are to be imprisoned by the Tlaxcalans. Cortés repeats that they may not be sacrificed or in any way killed, but otherwise the Tlaxcalans can do with them as they would. To prevent collaboration among the prisoners, Xicotenga divides the prisoners in groups of six and sends each group to different cities in the Tlaxcalan confederation. Many will die in the following imprisonment, a few will be sacrificed to the gods, some will thrive and be married to Tlaxcalan daughters, but most will just languish in miserable Indian jails for a year or more. One thing Tlaxcalans love to do is to strip the Spaniards of their clothes and stuff them into small wooden cages. In this way they are paraded around the various villages and pelted with rocks, rotten fruit and feces. The message many Tlaxcalans want to communicate to their people outside of the view of Cortés is “Look, the Spanish are humans, too. They aren’t gods.” In a few instances, the European prisoners will teach the Tlaxcalans about wheels, gunpowder, horsemanship, Spanish steel, tactics, and art… but this influence is negligible.

Hernán Cortés makes his return to Texcoco in late March with 450 Spanish soldiers and another 10,000 Tlaxcalan warriors. Spanish forces at Texcoco are now at 530 soldiers and 48 horses. The new arrivals brought with them much needed new weapons, ammunition, and supplies from the Spanish Caribbean. It somewhat makes up for the terrible mutiny, but at this point in OTL Cortés’ position was much stronger. They arrive at Texcoco just in time to hear news of a Mexican army that was marching on Chalco.

Prologue to the Siege

An army of the Mexica 20,000 strong marches on Chalco. Velázquez de Leon is sent to defend the city with an army of Tlaxcalans. He is there several days and helps repels the Mexica, returning to Cortés with a score of Mexica prisoners. Cortés interrogates them and convinces a few to go to Tenochtitlan with peace overtures to Cuauhtémoc to end the war and become his vassals. This is the first time he has done so ITTL, unlike OTL. The losses from the mutiny have forced this crueler, more determined Cortés to do so. But it affects the war in no way whatsoever, like OTL.

Easter Sunday is celebrated on March 31 in Texcoco, and is followed soon afterwards by news of another Aztec attack on Chalco. Cortés takes a force of 300 Spaniards and 25 horsemen to Chalco and arrives to find that the Mexica have already attacked, and that the Tlaxcalan garrison along with the Chalca and other nearby peoples gathered to defend the city themselves from the offensives of Cuauhtémoc. Unfortunately, they have also begun rather openly practicing their ritual cannibalism. Cortés is smart enough to know that one more attack on the Tlaxcala to punish them for this would probably mean outright rebellion, and he’s had enough of that. He turns a blind eye to the practice. (Easy POD here: What if he doesn’t ignore the carnage? He turns on the Tlaxcala in Chalco and thus loses his alliance with the Tlaxcala. The result is probably the destruction of the Spanish army in Mexico…)

Instead, Cortés marches swiftly towards Xochimilca on the south side of the lake with a force of 20,000 Texcocans and Chalca. It turns out to be a much more difficult conquest than he expected. At first things go well, the Spanish with their Indian allies forge across the causeway to the city (which is on an island a half-mile from the shoreline) and capture Xochimilca very quickly. However, in the evening the Mexica arrived to bottle the Spanish up on the island. They carry specially-adapted lances with Spanish swords as the blades and large two-handed swords that the Spanish left during La Noche Triste. During the attack, the advance guard is surrounded, two horses are killed and ten Castilians are captured. In OTL Cortés was part of the advance guard and nearly perished, here his more paranoid nature keeps him from exposing himself as much. The attack is more successful than OTL, which killed only one horse and captured “several” men. The Spaniards that were captured are in soon order dismembered, then their faces flayed off to be made into masks.

Hernán Cortés is forced to spend the night in Xochimilca. Their gunpowder has been all used up. Fortunately they have plenty of Indian allies, which are ordered to fill the causeways in with the rubble from destroyed houses. The next day the Mexica send 12,000 warriors in canoes to attack the island. Fortunately, with the cavalry and filled-in causeways, they survive the siege for three days and kill many, looting much gold in the city before they leave. Hearing of a large impending attack on Chalco, they return to that city to find that the Mexican offensive is more of a raid and fizzles out easily. Cortés takes his forces back to Texcoco, where in OTL he circumnavigated the entire Lake of Mexico. There he receives wonderful news: Martín López is nearing completing of the twelve brigantines and the channel that will carry them secretly to the waters of the lake. The Siege of Tenochtitlan is set to begin. Cortés feels like he needs to know the lake a bit better and do some necessary reconnaissance, but he wants to begin his naval blockade as soon as possible. They would have to just adapt to the situation at hand when it came.

Before the Siege of Tenochtitlan begins, let us look at all of the divergences so far in the military situation…

- Just in terms of numbers, Hernán Cortés has 600 Spanish soldiers and 35 horses (based in Texcoco) compared to 900 Spanish soldiers and 86 horses in OTL. There have been about 1,000 more Tlaxcalan casualties as well. Both the Spanish and Tlaxcalans are more demoralized than OTL, though it should be noted that with less Spanish and no tribute sent back to Spain, the average soldier has much more personal treasure than OTL (perhaps twice as much). The Spanish have much less gunpowder, ammunition and supplies to work with.

- Zultepec and the surrounding region is still pro-Mexica, though it isn’t strategically important.

- The entire region to the south of the lake, including Cuernavaca, Teputzlan, Yautepec, and Xiutepec, Tlaycapan have yet to be pacified and remain pro-Mexica, unlike in OTL. This is an area rich in farming, especially cotton, and could be strategically important if Cuauhtémoc coordinates a combined attack on Chalco nearby, or in order to get food shipped to Tenochtitlan. However, if he is not able to coordinate this, he may not get much out of this region other than some additional tribute.

- There were signs of rebellion in Texcoco at this time, but, better management of the city means that the Spanish and Tlaxcalans are in a better place here. They also have many more Mexica slaves thanks to less sacrifice and returning prisoners of war to Tenochtitlan, which helps the internal economy somewhat. Less of the city was burnt down.

- Chalco is also doing better thanks to a larger Tlaxcalan garrison.

- Less burning, raping, sacrificial cannibalism and killing of innocents in the cities the Spanish have attack, though the Tlaxcalans especially at Chalco are rapidly closing the gap with renewed application of their old cannibalistic traditions. The effect is polarizing: less fear for the Spanish on the enemy side, less hating of the Spanish on the ally side. Also, unfortunately, more Mexican warriors that are slightly better fed because the internal economy of Tenochtitlan is doing better. In the long-term it could be beneficial to the Spanish, in the short-term it won’t help them militarily unless it helps some polity switch to their side.

- No Gonzalo de Sandoval. No Julián de Alderete. No Friar Melgarejo. No Pedro de Alvarado. There are other important nameable people that aren’t part of Cortés’ campaign here, but I’m not sure they matter so much militarily. Oh, and, of course, Velázquez de Leon is alive! He shares the place of Cortés’ second-in-command with Cristóbal de Olid. Cortés isn't sure which he trusts more, as they are both good captains but have been rebellious at times before.

- Did I mention more Mexica in general? Far fewer battles here have lowered their numbers. That's not such a bad thing, either, as they will starve faster once the naval blockade is established... unless their increased numbers allows them to break out of course.

- Cortés has done less reconnaissance and so has a less of an idea of the geography of the Valley and he has also done less causeway fighting so he’s a little bit worse at it compared to OTL.

Did I say that I was going to write in fewer details? Whoops. This is MY timeline, I do what I WANT.

The consistent lack of interest in this detailed timeline I've put together is disheartening, so this will be the last update. I've researched quite a bit about Cortes in books such as Conquest: Montezuma, Cortes, and the Fall of Old Mexico by Hugh Thomas (1993) and Conquistador: Hernan Cortes, King Montezuma, and the Last Stand of the Aztecs by Buddy Levy (2008). I've utilized the latest findings on the Aztecs and their campaigns. I have a good idea of what would happen with a darker Cortes bent on secession from the Spanish Empire, provided that Cortes does not die at any point (which in all fairness he was likely to do so in OTL as well as ITTL).

The siege of Tenochtitlan would not be easy. Instead of putting armies on three of the four causeways that lead to the city, in this alternate scenario the lack of Spanish soldiers and horses and gunpowder would mean only two causeways could be blocked. Likely Coyoacan would be the hole left open, which means that instead of running supplies through Tepeyac, Cuauhtemoc would have supplies come from the south, from the rich region surrounding Cuernavaca. Cortes would have to take the fortress at Xoloc (which itself would not be so easy here) and have the army at Iztapalapa (likely under Cristobal de Olid) move around to cut the supply route. By the time that happens, quite a few supplies will have been moved into the city. Much less will have been burnt, too. The Mexica will still be hungry, but in a much better situation than OTL. Plus, the Tepeyac causeway will still be open! Cortes would have to make a tough decision, to split his armies even further in order cut off this supply route.

With his forces so thin, making headway into the city will be insanely difficult. A more cautious and humbled Cortes would prevent some of the dumb maneuvers that happened in OTL, like when the Mexica surrounded a pocket of Spanish forces and captured fifty Spaniards which were soon sacrificed. That was a wonderful victory for morale and nearly lost Cortes the war because all of his native allies, even the Tlaxcala, abandoned him because they were sure the gods, now satiated with Spanish blood, would sweep them from the valley. That wouldn't happen here, but Cortes will still lose a lot of men because the war of attrition will be much longer. He will be forced to burn down Tenochtitlan, just like in OTL, despite how much more he despises burning down the Mexican cities than OTL.

How long would it take compared to OTL? Most likely, with these circumstances, I'd estimate the campaign would take twice as long. And that's assuming more brigantines aren't sunk here and that none of the leaders are lost, on the Spanish don't make a dumb move and get themselves captured and sacrifices, and that they will still be able to start manufacturing their own gunpowder by taking sulfur from the nearby volcanoes, and that Cortes' allies won't switch sides due to even more bloodshed than in OTL. Good luck to the Spanish. I'd also think you could butterfly away the easy capture of Cuauhtemoc... when he flees the city, probably in November, the higher attrition probably means less brigantines and less of a chance he would be intercepted. He and a few other select Aztec nobles will likely find refuge among the Otomi. That means that the Spanish and their Amerindian allies won't see an official victory even in November... despite the fact that the formal government resistance would have ended and the entire city burnt down and taken, there will still be independent resistance. I would bet that after a few months Cuauhtemoc would be found and captured by other Amerindian groups and brought to be sold to say... Texcoco. He'd then be presented to Cortes and (in this darker timeline) publicly executed after a brief amount of torture to force him to tell the Spanish where more treasure is.

The official end of hostilities thus might not come to an end until *gasp* February 1522. There might not be more than 500 Spaniards left under Cortes' command. The Tlaxcalans and Texcocans and others will have been bled dry... the victory is a pyrrhic one. There will be some bad news, too.

In June 1521, Julian de Alderete will show up, fresh from Santo Domingo and more than a hundred men. He's the nearest royal treasurer, you see, and he's just the man to investigate the campaign underway. His task is to figure out if Cortes is loyal to the crown or not. If he is, he's to exact the royal fifth of all gains made in the campaign and send the treasure to Spain in order to prove the loyalty of Cortes. If he is not loyal, well, he'll get news back to the Caribbean in short order, which will soon be passed on to Spain and King Carlos will have to make further decisions. Julian will land at Veracruz and will be smart enough to keep his men armed when they land in order to prevent being press-ganged into the illegal campaign. They'll hear the usual reports of cruelty and craziness. Intrigued, but not totally convinced, he'll make his way to La Segura de la Frontera and take over the sparsely-manned post there, send a messenger to Cortes in the Valley of Mexico. Cortes will be smart. Suddenly he'll start talking about how great King Carlos is and invite Alderete to come see the City of Gold. He'll want to capture Alderete and take command of his men. But, Alderete will be smarter than that. He will answer to Cortes' invitation by demanding the royal fifth before he complies.

Cortes is not fool enough to stop the siege of Tenochtitlan to deal with Alderete. He'll probably capture the messengers and force an information blackout. Alderete will not be a fool either, and after at most a month he'll leave La Segura as an abandoned fort, take all the Spanish he can find and make towards Veracruz. Based in Veracruz, he will consolidate Cortes' gains for himself, taking over Cempoala, Jalapa, some other nearby towns. There won't be much loot left over, but he'll take what he can find and there's always more Amerindians to enslave. A ship is sent to Santo Domingo with a formal report by Alderete concerning Cortes' insurrection and with a gift of maize and a few Aztec treasures. Alderete wants to be in command of New Spain now, and he will hold the fort until reinforcements can arrive.

And they will arrive! By March 1522 Cristobal de Tapia will arrive with another 170 men. Spanish loyalists under Julian de Alderete will swell to more than 400 soldiers, inexperienced but well-supplied, with sufficient horses and gunpowder for any campaign. Throughout the summer they'll do some raiding and take control of the large coastal system of alliances that Cortes once held.

After a long, demanding siege, Cortes will be forced to rally his allies and mount a defense of the Aztec Empire. By this time, I could easily see him declaring himself as Tlatoani or, to borrow from the Navatlacas timeline, Tlatoanitzin. From the time he "goes dark and crazy", he starts wanting to declare himself the emperor of this land, so he'll do that as soon as he can publicly execute Cuauhtemoc. He'll know what is going on in the east by March 1522, he'll send out spies and so forth. I think it is very possible that at summertime Cortes will organize yet another native army headed this time by 300 experienced conquistadors (200 others left at Tenochtitlan under... Andres de Tapia perhaps?)and lead a direct attack on Veracruz. Alderete wouldn't have a chance... Cortes would prepare his surprise attack well and have the port surrounded on all sides by native warriors wearing their best regalia and armed with pikes to negate the advantage of cavalry. Some survivors will be press-ganged, others imprisoned, others executed. The locals will be informed of Cortes' ascent as emperor and that the other Spaniards were enemies and rebels.

By the way, those who remain under Cortes' command are unlikely to lead yet another mutiny or rebellion. With many fewer soldiers and a Cortes desperate for approval, the encomienda system will be established much sooner and more loot will be divided equally. They'll be wealthier and happier in many ways. There will be some odd cases here and there, but I suspect that most will go along with Cortes' gradual rebellion against the Spanish crown.

By October a fleet from Spain will arrive in Veracruz captained by none other than Nuno de Guzman with more than 4,000 men and a smaller supporting fleet sent by the Jamaican Governor Garay consisting of 900 Spaniards and loyal Jamaican natives. All together their forces will be counted at 5,000. Here's where it would get interesting. Guzman will plow through the coastal regions, already devastated three times by Cortes, Narvaez, and Alderete respectively. He'll be wicked cruel, man, massacring and razing left and right. How will Cortes, after three years of bleeding out both his forces and his native allies, be able to cope? Fortunately, Guzman's forces will be inexperienced and won't have many if any allies, just overworked Amerindian slaves. Cortes' Spanish forces might number 800, but facing so much military might, there will likely be a rebellion led by the men formerly under Alderete. At least Cortes will have the support of the former Aztecs who will see Guzman as a much worse conqueror than Cortes ever could be. Alas, 5,000 well-supplied Spanish soldiers with horses and guns will be a force difficult to reckon with. I'd also expect that with all those new arrivals, that a new epidemic will break out. Measles perhaps? They'll decimate the locals just like in 1519-1520.

There's very little chance that Cortes would win. He'll be smart and take out a lot of the enemy forces, but by this point he would be over-matched. Perhaps he will make a last stand at Tenochtitlan just like the Mexica did two years before. Some rebuilding could be done by 1523, and despite the outbreak of whatever plague, he'll have native allies to help him, unlike Guzman. Cortes will put cannons in towers to create coastal defenses, he will build more brigantines to patrol the lake, and he'd be manufacturing his own artillery by this point. The locals would be using wheeled carts to make logistics easier and they'd be well-trained in using pikes against horses and in keeping the causeways and supply routes open. Cortes might even have bucket brigades organized to douse fires where Guzman lights them and thereby keep the upper ground in reconstructed buildings. But Guzman has no conscience, thousands of men and now a direct supply route from the Caribbean. Cortes would eventually fall.

Perhaps Cortes could lead a host of loyal soldiers to conquer the Tarascan Empire and thereby delay the inevitable. I think this is likely. Guzman would take Tenochtitlan and would have to deal with constant resistance from the Tlaxcalans and might not be able to send a huge force to the Tarascan Empire for years. But they would eventually come. Perhaps when they do Cortes would lead all of those still loyal to him, by this point including a Tarascan army, and forge northwards, to the lands of the Raramuri, or to the Pueblo Indians, or in sailing ships to the San Francisco Bay. I doubt anything would come about of it... more likely he would die somewhere beyond the sunset he rides off to.

And that would be that. New Spain would have had a much more violent birth: two conquests, each bloodier than the last, and a long occupation by Guzman. Less Aztecs. Less native culture preserved. The mestizos thereafter produced would be much more European in nature and culture will mirror that of Spain much more than OTL. Perhaps in this context, Mexico would remain part of the Spanish Empire for as long as Cuba and Puerto Rico, even if someone like Napoleon comes along and invades the Iberian Peninsula. If something like the United States appears, its wars of westward expansion might involve a war against the entirety of the Spanish Empire. But there are so many butterflies.

I think you mistake awe and ignorance for lack of interest. I, for one, am certainly highly interested in your thoughts, but simply lack a decent background in the subject matter to offer any more thoughts beyond 'well that's really cool.'

Is there a slim chance though, for a Cortesian Empire?

It was already so improbable from the beginning! Cortes could have died during La Noche Triste, he could have died during the mutiny, he could have died during the Siege of Tenochtitlan or afterward. So, so improbable! But you want your High King Cortes ruling over the Aztec Empire and introducing Spanish technology and European animals and crops everywhere? Fine! Here's the improbable possibility.

What you need is a great storm, a divine wind, a kamikaze. It has happened a couple times in history. At the point where most seems grim, the invasion force is swept away by mother nature. Careful, to use it even once risks pushing the timeline into ASB territory... to use it TWICE most certainly does so. When should it strike? I would use the kamikaze to scatter Guzman's fleet as it sets sail for Veracruz... such a storm is not impossible in early October. For maximum effect, Guzman's flagship sinks, as does the largest vessel in Garay's small armada. Another three-fourths of the ships perish in the high ocean waves. That's as much as I can give you. In mid-October, the ragtag fleet appears one or two ships at a time at Veracruz. Others land at other small coastal settlements nearby. Other ships will return to the Caribbean colonies. There are some shipwrecks, too. The main leadership is gone, but there will be the lesser captains who can command what is left. Veracruz could press-gang a few of these groups, but this is still a hostile invasion force. It will likely fall one way or another. But, Cortes will have the upper hand and use his forces to divide the weakened, scattered armies. Many will become part of his new empire, others will be imprisoned and killed.

The Spanish colonies in the Caribbean have been depopulated of men, all because of this mad venture of Cortes'. No more soldiers will be sent to Veracruz. Spain has already sent a large force, would it send another? With Protestantism growing stronger every year, perhaps it wouldn't. Instead after a few years relations would be established with Cortes' empire, which will be Spanish-influenced after all. Trade would happen. There would be an exchange of peoples... some Spaniards would want to return home finally and others will want to live the life of a noble in the Mexican frontier. Spanish diseases will be delayed and with a centralized bureaucracy and Spanish technologies, the native population could rebound fast enough after every epidemic to maintain a population of close to 15 million. The Tarascans and other tributary peoples would be conquered, though Tlaxcala could eventually cause some serious problems. There will be pagan uprisings and conquistador uprisings and minority rebellions, but once a formal Spanish reconquista is out of the question, there is little that could keep Cortes from conquering it all.

There won't be much to gain to the north and to the south of the former Aztec Empire, so those peoples will be left alone for a time. The Mayans kept the Spanish out for a long time, they'll keep Cortes' empire out too. There is a good chance they'll remain independent except for a few Spanish conquests here and there. There is little to keep Pizarro from being interested in Peru, the POD is not far back enough. He'll still go after the Incas, but butterflies could make the campaign there more difficult. I'd say its likely he still takes it. The Spanish Empire will then devote more men into colonizing South America than OTL. Perhaps more of an effort will be made into colonizing Florida and there could even be a Spanish colony on the mouth of the Mississippi. Maybe the French would focus on colonizing Canada rather than the Mississippi river basin. English colonies on the Eastern Seaboard, if they still happen, would have to contend with stronger Spanish colonies to the south and to the west. Cortesia would eventually expand northward and conquer the Pueblos and California. Perhaps the English-Americans would team up with the Cortesians in order to divide Spanish North America between them. A powerful alliance could be created in this way, resulting in a cross-cultural trade of ideas and technologies that would be very interesting to watch develop. But there are so many butterflies that could push the timeline wherever you want it.

wolfbrother said:

I think you mistake awe and ignorance for lack of interest. I, for one, am certainly highly interested in your thoughts, but simply lack a decent background in the subject matter to offer any more thoughts beyond 'well that's really cool.'

Click to expand...

I apologize. I know there must be some of you that are reading all of this and interested in the sequence of events and divergences I am putting together. I thank you for that and I salute you. But unless you put a decent effort forward to motivate me, I'm putting this timeline away in order to favor others that seem to have more of a following. I'm looking at you Bronze Age New World... Don't blame me, I just want to entertain as many people as I can with my work, and if that means I have to put some things I am interested in on the sidelines, I am willing to do so.

I sure liked reading this. You did a lot better of a job with this that I did the first two times.

What I learned about creating a Plausible Independent Cortesian Empire in Mexico...

I started this timeline after reading Cuauhtemoc's amazing timeline The Navatlacas: Heirs to Hernan and Montezuma. I've heard of the idea before, but Cuauhtemoc really has put a lot of effort into it. He's started over again and again in order to make his timeline more and more plausible. As Hernan Cortes offered up Tenochtitlan as a shining jewel (more like a smoldering cinder) to his monarch, Emperor Charles V, so do I offer up this thread and everything I have discovered in it as a tribute to Cuauhtemoc. I salute you, Cuauhtemoc, so masterful in your creations of Alternate History.

There are some conclusions I have made with much research that I hope will help you in the creation of your own timeline.

- Hernan Cortes was loyal to the bone, man. He didn't want to live out his life in New Spain, his motivation during the entire conquest was to return to Spain in glory and become famous in his native land. He wanted to awe and respect of the Iberian Spanish and its nobility and especially its monarch. He was a regular fanboy to Emperor Charles V, you can see it in his letters. How do you punk someone like that to become a secessionist?? In this timeline I resorted to trauma and paranoia, which by itself was pretty implausible, as Cortes had committed other questionable activities comparable to killing Narvaez. Imprisoning him wasn't that much better. Somehow, you'll have to shock Cortes into a different mindset or it won't be plausible for him to declare independence from Spain. This is your toughest challenge, in my opinion.

- In Navatlacas you have Diego Colon leading a fleet of containing more than 17,000 soldiers and thousands of horses to punish Cortes' secession from the Empire, arriving in 1521. Maybe, no, and no.

--- You have King Charles V choose Diego Colon to head the fleet?... it is a strange choice to me, but not implausible. Seeing as Charles sent Guzman, who was one of Cortes' most vehement opponents in Spain from the very beginning and a confidante of the Spanish Crown, to assert more royal authority in Mexico in OTL no less, I have no reason to believe it wouldn't be him here as well. But butterflies are butterflies... go with Diego Colon if you so desire.

---But he wouldn't arrive with 17,000 men, no way. Cortes had hundreds of men, not thousands and not tens of thousands. Natives don't count, Spain certainly had no reason to expect that the native Amerindians would have any weight on the battlefield. In my educated opinion, I don't think Spain would send less than 2,000 men and no more than 6,000. For this timeline I chose the number in the middle: 4,000. Just to put your 17,000 number in perspective... that force would likely outnumber the Spanish population of the Caribbean colonies. In 1602, eighty years later, the entirety of Cuba only had a Spanish population of 20,000.

---And, finally, a formal military response from Spain wouldn't arrive in 1521. I know that Cortes in your timeline takes Tenochtitlan sooner, but the response would be delayed. Information crossed the Atlantic too slowly, and Charles V had a lot of problems to deal with. In his memoirs he barely mentioned Cortes and New Spain, he didn't think too much of the events happening there. There was a Spanish civil war to avert and the rise of Protestantism to curb. Honestly, I think that summer of 1523 is the soonest a Spanish punitive force could arrive in Mexico even if Cortes takes Tenochtitlan sooner and sends hostile letters. In this timeline, I chose October 1523 for such a response, the month and year where, in OTL, Cortes finally received news from Charles V and his long-awaited appointment as Governor of New Spain.

- The Aztec Empire didn't have no 25 million people before Cortes. As much as I love 1491 by Charles C. Mann, he is wrong in this figure. The figure was derived with a faulty methodology by high-counters Cook and Borah decades ago. While it is true that the pre-Columbian Americas were probably more highly populated than we have previously thought, the Aztec Empire, at most, had no more than 15 million inhabitants before being depopulated by war and disease and oppression. At least that means that European diseases weren't so apocalyptic.

- A Cortesian Aztec Empire would have horses, wheeled carts, gunpowder weapons, crossbows, chickens, goats, sheep, cattle, pigs, wheat. Gunpowder could be produced from local sulfur deposits. Its armies would have defeated the Tarascans and crushed independent Pacific polities. It would build European-style ships. Knowledge of iron-working would disseminate from the Valley of Mexico after Cortes begins manufacturing his own cannons. The pulley, the nail, the screw, the candle are easy technologies that would spread very quickly and revolutionize the Empire in small, notable ways here and there. The few Spaniards that stay with Cortes and remain loyal to him will quickly create a generation of mestizo nobility that will remain at the bureaucratic heart of Cortesia for a long time, at least as long as the British controlled India or the descendants of African Americans dominated Liberia. Its culture, despite the spread of Christianity and some European ideas will swiftly be considered alien to other European powers.

- And finally, less to Cuauhtemoc and others who wish to perpetuate this idea in alternate history: Cortes should have been a dead man. The conquest of the Aztecs shouldn't have happened. The beginning of the campaign was a fluke and its victory was stranger still. There were so many times it could have all gone downhill for Cortes, when he could have been slaughtered in Mexico. It is far more likely that history would have seen an Aztec Empire slowly opened up to trade and conquered only later following the onslaught of diseases and civil war, or an Aztec Empire that would have emerged even stronger after destroying an attempt at invasion. These possibilities now seem more interesting to me, as they are possibilities we only narrowly avoided.

EDIT: I posted a map of the Valley of Mexico and Tenochtitlan a bit upthread for those of you completely confused by my mention of various cities beyond Tenochtitlan. Hope it's not too big to be useful.

Hmm, another Cortes timeline. So Dingo isn't the only one drawn to this character.