The Second Opium War - The Scramble for China

[Corder]

I was thinking about a TL were the death of Lord Elgin (captured and tortured along with Parkes and Loch, shortly followed by his death while still a prisoner) causes the war to expand.

I am thinking about the potential ramifications:

1. Britain and France seeking territorial concessions and potentially interfering in the governance of China (I cannot stomach the phrase "regime change") in order to extort reparations and guarantee access to trade.
2. The potential survival, at least in the short term, of the Taiping government as the Imperial forces are redirected.
3. The Ever Victorious Army (whether under Ward, Burgevine, Gordon or perhaps Graham who was offered command) is still raised and taken into British pay but against the Imperials instead.

I am looking at either a potential scramble for China in the 1860s and 1870s (with Britain, France and Russia as the main players) or a Chinese Raj (but I cannot see Russia and France standing for this without substantial territorial concessions so we get back to the scramble scenario).

Any thoughts or suggestions?

[Alex Richards]

Well, for any sort of partition, the likey starting points would be:

1. Independence of Mongolia and East Turkestan under Russian patronage
2. Independence of Tibet under British patronage
3. French controlled Hainan and Guangxi (annexed to Indochina?) and probably a puppet in Yunnan.

Manchuria may go to Russia or Japan, Guangdong is British influenced, along with Shanghai and the Yellow River, possibly German Shangdong.

[Corder]

With the Meiji Restoration and the North German Confederation still just under 10 years away, Germany and Japan could get left behind. A Scramble for China on its doorstep could (will I think) have a dramatic influence on the development of Japan.

[Antiochus]

Originally Posted by Alex Richards

Well, for any sort of partition, the likey starting points would be:

1. Independence of Mongolia and East Turkestan under Russian patronage
2. Independence of Tibet under British patronage
3. French controlled Hainan and Guangxi (annexed to Indochina?) and probably a puppet in Yunnan.

Manchuria may go to Russia or Japan, Guangdong is British influenced, along with Shanghai and the Yellow River, possibly German Shangdong.

So you see China staying largely intact? What about Manchuria?

[Alex Richards]

Originally Posted by Antiochus

So you see China staying largely intact? What about Manchuria?

Probably Russian if this is before Meji.

[Corder]

Originally Posted by Alex Richards

Probably Russian if this is before Meji.

Possibly. I need to swat up on Russian's infrastructure in Siberia at this point to see if a 60s or 70s penetration and control of Manchuria is possible.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by Corder

Possibly. I need to swat up on Russian's infrastructure in Siberia at this point to see if a 60s or 70s penetration and control of Manchuria is possible.

Not much, I think. Peking called for Outer Manchuria to be part of Russia, and it wasn't until the 1890's that the Chinese Eastern Railway was considered being built.

Hmmm.... I wonder what the splitting up of China would do to Joseon at this point..... This was before the isolationist Heungseon Daewongun came to power, so perhaps the concessions could force Joseon to open up earlier.....

[Corder]

I hadn't begun to think about the fate of poor King Cheoljong and his successors.

Will France be to involved with China for the short war with Korea to occur in the mid-60s, or will having forces in China already mean that France can proceed more aggressively.

I begin to wonder if the Andong Kims will get rid of their ungainly puppet (I believe the current view is that they murdered the King) in the early 60s.

Korean history is my main blind spot in East Asia...