WI: Hungary won the Battle of Mohács in 1526

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Moh%C3%A1cs

Let's say that the Hungarians somehow managed to win the battle.
Does it prevent Hungary from being ovveran by the Ottomans?
What's next? How much is history changed?
Does it prevent Hungarians from becoming a minority people in Greater Hungary? (and therefore preventing the Treaty of Trianon).

Sang said:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mohács

Let's say that the Hungarians somehow managed to win the battle.
Does it prevent Hungary from being ovveran by the Ottomans?
What's next? How much is history changed?
Does it prevent Hungarians from becoming a minority people in Greater Hungary? (and therefore preventing the Treaty of Trianon).

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How are the losses? a victory with a exhausted winner is just some bought time.... a devasting victory (like vienna 1683) is something different. But something like 1683 isn´t realistic... also the hungarians had huge problems with themself, so even if they win the battle, the country can go down in civil war and unrest...

informationfan said:

How are the losses? a victory with a exhausted winner is just some bought time.... a devasting victory (like vienna 1683) is something different. But something like 1683 isn´t realistic... also the hungarians had huge problems with themself, so even if they win the battle, the country can go down in civil war and unrest...

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Well, civil war and unrest is still better than Turkish occupation.
The Hungarians could have possibly won if they had more soldiers, or maybe some sort of fortifications.
Either way, even making the Ottomans lose enough men (Pyrrhic victory) would be enough to prevent them from invading the country.
The Ottoman invasion of Hungary was a failure for both sides in a certain way. The Ottomans never even conquered all of Hungary, and held the conquered parts only for 150 years.
On the other hand, the Hungarians lost a lot of their population, and became a minority in Greater Hungary, ultimately causing the Treaty of Trianon in 1920, Hungary losing 72% of their land.

Sang said:

Well, civil war and unrest is still better than Turkish occupation.
The Hungarians could have possibly won if they had more soldiers, or maybe some sort of fortifications.
Either way, even making the Ottomans lose enough men (Pyrrhic victory) would be enough to prevent them from invading the country.
The Ottoman invasion of Hungary was a failure for both sides in a certain way. The Ottomans never even conquered all of Hungary, and held the conquered parts only for 150 years.
On the other hand, the Hungarians lost a lot of their population, and became a minority in Greater Hungary, ultimately causing the Treaty of Trianon in 1920, Hungary losing 72% of their land.

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Hi,

you still have to give informations about what happens at mohacs...

as i said, if the hungarians beat the osmans big style, they have bought some time (but still the austrians can take over...you know, neigbours tend to take everything if you lay on the ground 100% exhausted) or they have won a gigantic battle (1:50 in losses, but this is asb)

hungary in 1526 wasn´t able to withstand the osmans, not forever... they could buy some time and later the osmans beat the hungarians AND the austrians (being a problem for all in europe) weather cannot be so bad every autum... so the big osman guns can come to vienna and it will fall...

the end of hungary (with a long border to the total enemy osman empire brings it in a hopeless stratetic situation) is near certain... only a BIG victory in 1526 (and the next three years) can change this... the osmans won easily at mohacs... so you also need to explain how and why the hungarians win...

the civil war i mentioned is not the better solution, cause in this civil war the austrians and the osmans will be involved... so a lot more hungarians will be killed, cities and villages will be extingished and so on... so it could be better or worse...

even if the hungarians survive (how?), the fate isn´t safe.. the austrians or another nation around could take over... not in a double monarchy but with the hungarians as suppressed people... we cannot say so, it is your turn to make this scenario

but remember, untill LATE in the osman wars the osmans tend to beat enemy armies fast and with less losses, only if they try to take defended cities they had problems (with the weather for example)

I think keeping King Louis alive while still losing the battle would damper down a lot of the problems Hungary would have later. It would end up being likely a vassal of the Ottoman Turks but at least King Louis of Hungary would still be alive and would maintain his holdings in Bohemia at the very least.

Cuāuhtemōc said:

I think keeping King Louis alive while still losing the battle would damper down a lot of the problems Hungary would have later. It would end up being likely a vassal of the Ottoman Turks but at least King Louis of Hungary would still be alive and would maintain his holdings in Bohemia at the very least.

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Is brother in law and successor Ferdinand was in a similar position and also added the Austrian Lands... Although for a while there was a three way division between the Ottoman Empire, the Habsburgs and Transylvania.

And the armies of the Austrian Habsburgs and their commander prince Eugene of Savoy, where important for the reconquest of the kingdom.
One could say that they also were responsible for the resettlement of deserted areas of Hungary with a lot of nationalities. OTOH any other ruler of that area would have done the same; to prevent that IMHO preventing a loss at Mohacs or being able to eventually force the Ottomans to redraw within a short term (like the OTL reign of Ferdinand I) would be needed.

What's likelier is Louis II not, well, dying at Mohacs. The Ottomans have the tactical and technological advantage (primarily because the Hungarian Jagiellons didn't keep Corvinus' Black Army) here, so a Hungarian victory is unlikely (but not impossible).

SavoyTruffle said:

What's likelier is Louis II not, well, dying at Mohacs. The Ottomans have the tactical and technological advantage (primarily because the Hungarian Jagiellons didn't keep Corvinus' Black Army) here, so a Hungarian victory is unlikely (but not impossible).

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If Louis survives though, Hungarians will still become a minority within greater Hungary. And lets say Louis ends up having an heir so his lands don't end up in Hapsburg lands. Very soon Bohemia would become the senior partner of the political union, between Hunagry and Bohemia, and since the part of Hungary that survived the Ottoman invasion was pretty much Slovakia, I don't see it going to well for the Magyar population. Even if things end up better for the Czech/Slovak lands than in OTL.

jycee said:

If Louis survives though, Hungarians will still become a minority within greater Hungary. And lets say Louis ends up having an heir so his lands don't end up in Hapsburg lands. Very soon Bohemia would become the senior partner of the political union, between Hunagry and Bohemia, and since the part of Hungary that survived the Ottoman invasion was pretty much Slovakia, I don't see it going to well for the Magyar population. Even if things end up better for the Czech/Slovak lands than in OTL.

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Ethnic distributions would be changed with so far a POD (which means that the Serbian migration northward in the early 18th century will be butterflied away). Not to mention that ethnic nationalism may also be butterflied away TTL.

jycee said:

If Louis survives though, Hungarians will still become a minority within greater Hungary. And lets say Louis ends up having an heir so his lands don't end up in Hapsburg lands. Very soon Bohemia would become the senior partner of the political union, between Hunagry and Bohemia, and since the part of Hungary that survived the Ottoman invasion was pretty much Slovakia, I don't see it going to well for the Magyar population. Even if things end up better for the Czech/Slovak lands than in OTL.

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This is a very interesting possibility! A *Czechoslovakia-like entity originating in the sixteenth century...lots of big butterflies here. If this state later works on reconquering Hungary, could it fill territory similiar to OTL's Austrian Empire? It could be like the Austrian Empire minus Austria.

What would Bohemia-Hungary's relations with the HRE and the Hapsburgs be like? If I'm not mistaken, it would be half in the Empire and half outside, yes? If Bohemia-Hungary ended up becoming Protestant (I don't know how likely that is, though), it would have huge effects on the sixteenth-century wars of religion.

Desmond Hume said:

This is a very interesting possibility! A *Czechoslovakia-like entity originating in the sixteenth century...lots of big butterflies here. If this state later works on reconquering Hungary, could it fill territory similiar to OTL's Austrian Empire? It could be like the Austrian Empire minus Austria.

What would Bohemia-Hungary's relations with the HRE and the Hapsburgs be like? If I'm not mistaken, it would be half in the Empire and half outside, yes? If Bohemia-Hungary ended up becoming Protestant (I don't know how likely that is, though), it would have huge effects on the sixteenth-century wars of religion.

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Likely enough (in OTL Bohemia and Hungary went Protestant, which was only changed with the Counter-Reformation), but given the close family ties of the Bohemian Jagiellons to the Habsburgs, this isn't too likely. OTOH, one possibility is them adopting the tolerance policy of their Polish relatives (remaining Catholic, but allowing non-Catholics to worship).

hello!

i try to give answers to all of the questions

informationfan said:

Hi,
you still have to give informations about what happens at mohacs...

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its easy... the cavalry charge succeds (the sultans bodyguards stopped them after all) and they either kill or capture the sultan, and routing not only the left flank, but the center too

as i said, if the hungarians beat the osmans big style, they have bought some time (but still the austrians can take over...you know, neigbours tend to take everything if you lay on the ground 100% exhausted) or they have won a gigantic battle (1:50 in losses, but this is asb)

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as for buying some time, you have right
however, if the sultan is killed or captured (and released after a big ransom and some some hollow treaties), an internal turmoil within the ottomans (sucession or pretenders) could happened
moreover, there is a chance, that the ottomans after a defeat, turn against east (and let Francis be damned)

as for the austrians, Ferdinand could have not take over after a battle won, or even if Lous survives (hell, even after the lost battle he could not take over easily when he had legal claim and internal support)
oh, and by the way, they were allied, and brothers in law

as for the losses OTL: the hungarian losses are pretty clear: practically all of the infatry, almost all of the heavy cavalry and some of the light cavalry were done
the ottoman losses are not so clear... ottoman oroginal sources clearly underestimating the losses (50 or so? - come on), however, two things we should consider: the ottoman army got flanked, by heavy cavalry, big time
and after the battle, for a day (or two?), they buried only their own dead

but lets go back to ATL: the important thing is not the number of the losses, but the quality of the losses... if the ottomans lose a few thousands akindzsi, no problem.. but if they lose the janisarries... thats hard

hungary in 1526 wasn´t able to withstand the osmans, not forever... they could buy some time and later the osmans beat the hungarians AND the austrians (being a problem for all in europe) weather cannot be so bad every autum... so the big osman guns can come to vienna and it will fall...

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well, the chances, that hungary could resist the ottomans forever, are pretty slim - but not unachieveable
and i cant see, how and why would be the austrians a problem ITL
about Wien, you should take into account the siege of Kőszeg and the first non-siege of Wien - when Suleiman practically did not dare to win the siege, because after that he had to take a battle with Charles
(and in 1529, the absence of the big guns, the weather i think are pretty much just a bad excuse)
long story short, the fate of the ottoman empire and hungary had been decided at the western part of europe - Francis or the Louis XIV against the HRE etc.

the end of hungary (with a long border to the total enemy osman empire brings it in a hopeless stratetic situation) is near certain... only a BIG victory in 1526 (and the next three years) can change this... the osmans won easily at mohacs... so you also need to explain how and why the hungarians win...

the civil war i mentioned is not the better solution, cause in this civil war the austrians and the osmans will be involved... so a lot more hungarians will be killed, cities and villages will be extingished and so on... so it could be better or worse...

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only could have been better...

even if the hungarians survive (how?), the fate isn´t safe.. the austrians or another nation around could take over... not in a double monarchy but with the hungarians as suppressed people... we cannot say so, it is your turn to make this scenario

but remember, untill LATE in the osman wars the osmans tend to beat enemy armies fast and with less losses, only if they try to take defended cities they had problems (with the weather for example)

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uhm... objection!

first of all, we survived
yes, the cost was great, 150 years of constant war took its toll
and at those time, nations did not tke over.. monarchs did (hell, you could say that before mohács, the chezcs took over hungary)

as for the later one, the ottomans are overrated a bit... after mohács, they made several attempts on Wien, none sucessful
they got bogged down hopelessly in hungary, and they got the devils luck at least 2 times in the 16 century (right after mohács in 1530, when charles supposed to take the battle too, and reconquer hungary, and in 1596, Mezőkeresztes)

jycee said:

If Louis survives though, Hungarians will still become a minority within greater Hungary. And lets say Louis ends up having an heir so his lands don't end up in Hapsburg lands. Very soon Bohemia would become the senior partner of the political union, between Hunagry and Bohemia, and since the part of Hungary that survived the Ottoman invasion was pretty much Slovakia, I don't see it going to well for the Magyar population. Even if things end up better for the Czech/Slovak lands than in OTL.

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not likely - altough immediate after the battle, the ravaging were on real high scale (the killed and the captured and taken into slavery could be well above the 300 000), the following 150 years of constant warfare were disasterous

SavoyTruffle said:

Likely enough (in OTL Bohemia and Hungary went Protestant, which was only changed with the Counter-Reformation), but given the close family ties of the Bohemian Jagiellons to the Habsburgs, this isn't too likely. OTOH, one possibility is them adopting the tolerance policy of their Polish relatives (remaining Catholic, but allowing non-Catholics to worship).

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if you rule Bohemia, you better be tolerant at those times... the husites were not long ago

The Bohemian Jagellons are next in line to the Polish throne, so there is a possibility of Zapadoslavia.

Well then, killing the Sultan in the middle of battle (let's say that the Hungarian cavalry charge suceeds) would likely cause a lot of problems for the Ottomans.
It would probably delay - if not completely prevent - an Ottoman conquest.

If Louis were to win at Mohacs, I wonder whether or not, his kingdoms would become Protestant. In OTL, both Louis's wife Mary and his tutor, George, Margrave of Brandenburg-Ansbach were supportive of the Lutheran doctrine. Perhaps with time they would have been able to convert Louis and/or his heirs.

kasumigenx said:

The Bohemian Jagellons are next in line to the Polish throne, so there is a possibility of Zapadoslavia.

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Then Hungarians will certainly be a minority within the kingdom. However because ethnic nationalism is still a long way away from the POD. This Bohemia-Hungary-Poland political union will likely be seen by all, as Europe's great buffer against the East whether it be against the Turks or Russia. An interesting country but it might not last very long. Especially since the Jagellons were not very good a producing heirs, at the right time.

However, I can see the Czechoslovakia like entity (consisting of the Bohemian Crown Lands and Upper Hungary) surviving for a while. Independent from Austria, it will likely be tolerant of non-Catholic Christians. This would likely help it develop an identity separate from Austria. And it it plays its cards right, I think it could become a valuable ally of France against the HRE. Yes, the Jagellons had deep political ties with the HRE but ultimately, it is probably best for its survival to switch side. Especially if it gets the Ottomans off their tail.

Down the line, could we could see a Czecho-Magyar Empire? I think the butterflies would spread quite far.

jycee said:

Then Hungarians will certainly be a minority within the kingdom. However because ethnic nationalism is still a long way away from the POD. This Bohemia-Hungary-Poland political union will likely be seen by all, as Europe's great buffer against the East whether it be against the Turks or Russia. An interesting country but it might not last very long. Especially since the Jagellons were not very good a producing heirs, at the right time.

However, I can see the Czechoslovakia like entity (consisting of the Bohemian Crown Lands and Upper Hungary) surviving for a while. Independent from Austria, it will likely be tolerant of non-Catholic Christians. This would likely help it develop an identity separate from Austria. And it it plays its cards right, I think it could become a valuable ally of France against the HRE. Yes, the Jagellons had deep political ties with the HRE but ultimately, it is probably best for its survival to switch side. Especially if it gets the Ottomans off their tail.

Down the line, could we could see a Czecho-Magyar Empire? I think the butterflies would spread quite far.

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Yes, I think we could easily see a surviving Bohemian-Hungarian empire that might fill a similar niche (and similar lands) to Austria-Hungary. That would be a very exciting timeline for someone to write!

With a surviving Czechomagyaria (awesome name, BTW), would it be more likely that the Hapsburgs would eventually unite Germany in a way more centralized than the HRE? Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself here, but if the Jagiellon empire eventually retakes significant land from the Ottomans (which probably shouldn't be taken for granted), well...that's a lot of land (and prestige for military victories) that the Hapsburgs don't get ITTL. Maybe uniting and centralizing Germany could be an alternate project for the Austrian Hapsburgs? If the Jagiellon empire is Protestant and/or allied to France, such a project might be necessary for the Hapsburgs too. This might lead to a more Catholic Germany.

The problem with uniting the HRE is that the other princes don't want "a united, centralized HRE" in the sense someone who is Emperor would. A working coalition or federation, maybe. One Empire, with the Emperor as supreme ruler? They've been fighting that since at least Henry IV.