Life Expectancy for Famous People Who Died "Early"?

theReturner

We've all probably thought about PODs that involve some famous person who died in OTL living past their OTL death date. The most famous example would probably be JFK surviving his assassination. JFK was of course porbably older at the time of his death than most people who use this forum are right now, so while he didn't technically die young, most people would say he died to early, hence the title of this thread.

Anyway, one of the problems in my eyes of these kinds of PODs is that it's impossible to be sure how long some of these people would have lived if they had not died when they in fact did. So, the goal of this thread is to find as many famous people who died "early", and try and figure out what the life expectancy would be for this person assuming they hadn't died when they did. I'm assuming we can figure this out based on their known heath, the health of the family members, what situations they would have lived in, and other stuff like this.

Here are just a few people I can think of who died early, or could have likely lived longer...

Abraham Lincoln
Thomas D'arcy Mcgee
John F. Kennedy
Robert F. Kennedy
John F. Kennedy,Jr.
Martin Luther King,Jr.
Malcolm X
John Lennon
Marilyn Monroe
James Dean
River Phoenix
Adolf Hitler
George Patton


Anyone have any idea what the life expectancy for these people would be?
 
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Alternatehistoryguy47

For Hitler, I don't see him making it past 1960 at the very latest. He was a hypocondriac that had numerous diseases and was taking pills from a quack doctor that was a slob himself. A lot of the medicines he was taking contradicted each other and often came into conflict.
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

theReturner said:
Abraham Lincoln
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This is controversial. Some say he could have lived to a ripe old age. Many others say that his depression was already killing him, and/or disease, meaning he'd die shortly after the presidency.

John F. Kennedy
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There's a consensus, at least here, that he'd possibly succumb to complications of Addison's some time in the 80s or possibly 90s (or, possibly 70s, if you're more dystopic).

Robert F. Kennedy
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He was very healthy, exercised rigorously, and was an outdoors man. He could live quite the long time. Possibly even still alive today.

John F. Kennedy,Jr.
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Definitely be alive today, though I don't know when he'd die.


John Lennon
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Alf Lennon died at 63, but John Lennon as both of a generation which would live longer, and Alf probably lived a far more menial and grueling life than John. I think he'd still be alive today.

Adolf Hitler
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Dead by the 50's due to a number of ailments. Syphilis, Alzheimer's, and a whole other list of things were up against Adi. If you're an optimist, you can get him to the 1960s at most.
 
Plumber

Plumber

Abraham Lincoln
John F. Kennedy
Martin Luther King, Jr.
Marilyn Monroe
Adolf Hitler
George Patton

Would probably die of natural causes five years to a decade of their actual death. Except JFK, he could last another two decades or so.

Thomas D'Archy McGee dies in the 1880s-1900s I think. Maybe even the 1910s.

Marilyn Monroe
Malcom X
RFK
James Dean

Would have died in the late 1990s or 2000s I think. They might still be alive.

River Phoenix
JFK Jr.

Are still alive.
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

MLK could have lived for a while. I don't see him dying in 1973. 1983, or 1993, perhaps. His father died at 84. That would make him live until 2013 if he lived to the same age.
 

theReturner

kevvy2010 said:
For Hitler, I don't see him making it past 1960 at the very latest. He was a hypocondriac that had numerous diseases and was taking pills from a quack doctor that was a slob himself. A lot of the medicines he was taking contradicted each other and often came into conflict.
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Emperor Norton I said:
Dead by the 50's due to a number of ailments. Syphilis, Alzheimer's, and a whole other list of things were up against Adi. If you're an optimist, you can get him to the 1960s at most.
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Hitler's problem would be the noose, not any ailment he might have had. Unless we're talking about an Axis Victory TL.
 
Plumber

Plumber

Personally I'm a fan of Lincoln dying on July 4, 1876, the Centennial.

Quentin Roosevelt dies in his 60s I think. His brothers who died of natural causes died in 50s and 80s, but the Roosevelts who were Presidents (and Quentin would have been President I'm sure) died in their early 60s.

Emperor Norton I said:
MLK could have lived for a while. I don't see him dying in 1973. 1983, or 1993, perhaps. His father died at 84. That would make him live until 2013 if he lived to the same age.
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The coroner was amazed that he had the heart of a man in his late sixties when he died.
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

Plumber said:
The coroner was amazed that he had the heart of a man in his late sixties when he died.
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That was due to the extreme stress of leading the Civil Rights movement. Which, if its the heart of a 60 year old man, would still permit King to live into the 80s.

Also, there's nothing to say he couldn't improve as things calmed down domestically, or have gotten treatment when his health got bad enough to be noticed, like a heart attack.
 

theReturner

Some more people I've thought of...

Kurt Cobain
Elvis Presely
Buddy Holly
Brian Epstien
Sid Vicious
Princess Diana
Reinhard Heydrich
Heinrich Himmler
 

APreston

Diana is still alive today and probably giving the Brit tabloids plenty to write about vis-a-vis Camilla.

Barring a successful rehab Cobain's habits catch up with him by mid-2000s at the latest. You can't do that many drugs for that long and live a normal lifespan. Personally I see him taking himself out a few years later than OTL, when grunge moves on and Nirvana disbands or becomes less-relevant, unless he finds a new project which is unlikely IMO.

Elvis, similarly, needs lipo or a drastically changed outlook on life to make it into the 80s or 90s. He's eating himself to death, and all the ailments that come along with it will follow at some point.

I don't know what the vices and habits of Buddy Holly were but given his contemporary and partner Waylon Jennings made it to 2002 its reasonable to assume Holly will go about that far as well.
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

We should always take into account both the parents and the habits. The parents for a clean benchmark of how long they're genetics will take them, keeping into account any of the parents' vices. The Habits for the obvious reason that its like friction which wears them down faster.

Buddy Holly's father, for example, lived till he was 84. If Buddy lives the same, he'll live until 2020.
 

drcynic

Some of you guys are looking to the father's ages, but statistics tend to show that males tend to follow the mother's side of the family, including life expectancy.
 

Archibald

Banned
Here come the space program :rolleyes:

Astronauts have top health screening for obvious reasons, they tend to live quite old (about 80% of moonwalkers are still alive today, very few have died of any illness).

Gagarin still alive if no accident, aged 80 or so - he was somewhat depressed with Soyuz 1 and grounding but was recovering fast early 1968.

Von Braun: had a friend that was a reputed doctor in Houston. The friend discovered symptoma of cancer at the worst moment in Von Braun life - early 1969 !
The cancer had to wait, then Von Braun repeatedly neglected symptomas until 1975, when it was way too late.
Born 1912 he would have died somewhere in the 80's if no cancer. Perhaps long enough to see a man on Mars :rolleyes:

Korolev: most of his health problems that ultimately killed him stemmed from the 1938 -1943 period. Torture by stalin henchmen, followed by years in the gulag losing all his teeths.
He would have lived slightly longer, perhaps until the 70's.

Chelomey: late 1984 he was stupidly crushed by his Mercedes.
The broken leg resulted in an unpexcted thrombosis that killed him.
No reason the rocket designer could not survive the Cold War, with plenty of interesting stories to tell (he was good friend with Krushchev son). Dies aged 80, in 1994.
 
Plumber

Plumber

Emperor Norton I said:
That was due to the extreme stress of leading the Civil Rights movement. Which, if its the heart of a 60 year old man, would still permit King to live into the 80s.

Also, there's nothing to say he couldn't improve as things calmed down domestically, or have gotten treatment when his health got bad enough to be noticed, like a heart attack.
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Well I agree that he would probably would live to 1980s, but not 2013.

drcynic said:
Some of you guys are looking to the father's ages, but statistics tend to show that males tend to follow the mother's side of the family, including life expectancy.
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Really? What about the mother's father?
Either way I guess I will live quite a while :cool:
 

Peelitebkearns

I think you have to consider how exactly you avoid the deaths. For example, if Oswald nearly kills JFK, there are various reasons his life span could be different from in a TL where Oswald is never born/doesn't consider shooting the president at all.

For a start you've got the possibility of physical injuries to consider. If a full recovery is made, there's also the possibility of the assasination attempt shocking the potential victim in to making drastic changes in their lives they otherwise wouldn't have made, eg MLK adopting a more healthy lifestyle.

That said, I think the likes of Lennon, Holly and Dean would still be alive today. Not too sure about MLK though-I'd imagine he'd live until the mid to late 90's. RFK is probably still alive today at least, though JFK probably lives until the late 80's/early 90's.

Anyway, got a few more names to add to the list:

Lenin without the assassination attempt, Glenn Millor, Nicolass II and family, Tupac, Notorious BIG, Grace Kelly, William Mckinley and Jo Kennedy JR.
 
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