Hello, first thread posted on this site. I have numerous What if? questions about WWII, though the search function has answered most of them. And seeing as I don't want to start my first thread by asking yet another question on the sea mammal that shall not be name, I'd like to ask a question regarding something that has bothered me for a while. The status of the other Axis powers in an Axis victory timeline. Mainly Italy, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, the French State and Finland. For the sake of brevity let us not count the virtual puppet states of Slovakia, Croatia and the other occupation governments (If for some reason I'm incorrect in this list do tell me).
This idea came about due to the literal horde of 'Germany wins, Nazis R TEH AWESOME/TEH EVULZS' threads I've seen, or the idiotic 'Japan conquers China, kicks US and the British Commonwealth out of Asia' ones as well. Most people I've met, thankfully almost no one on this site, seem to entirely forget there were Axis powers besides Germany and Japan, and I sometimes think us Americans would forget them too if not for the memory of Pearl Harbor being shoved down our throats. Many forget that the vaunted Afrika Korps was comprised primarily of Italians, and the Italians contribution (For better or worse) in the Second Great War itself. There's little mention of Hungarian, Romanian, or general collaboration in regards to the Holocaust, or their general goals in the war. So I wanted an Axis victory timeline that isn't focused entirely on Germany or Japan, but in these minor players.
To start off, let's imagine a scenario for the Axis victory. It might be a tad ASB in nature, I admit, but considering this isn't a serious timeline bear with me here.
1)The UK signs an armistice under Lord Halifax with the German Reich and the rest of the European Axis as they had planned to do. Perhaps this is caused by various factors, maybe the Italians actually being competent and/or well-supplied and taking Malta and Egypt, though this can happen without the UK losing any territory if you prefer. I can't bear to even think of Germany actually invading Britain, so that's the most likely way for their to be peace in the west.
2)The US either stays neutral, or gets into a singular war with Japan, and defeats it as in OTL, even faster actually due to the lack of a Germany to focus on. Due to the peace with Britain, Germany and the US do not declare war on each other, as Hitler finds no reason to support his 'Asiatic inferiors' when his Anglo-Saxon brothers across the channel have become so amicable. Or if you prefer Roosevelt manages to get a declaration of war, or Hitler does his usual stupid shit and declares war, but even then the US cannot get a decent base to invade 'Fortress Europa.' Let us also handwave nuclear weapons away, due to the quick defeat of Japan and huge casualties ITTL's Operation Downfall eliminating the need or desire for nuclear weapons, as either the new found peace will delay nukes, or the US feels this single bomb, no matter how powerful, will stop a continent wide empire without killing needless civilians under Nazi rule. For the sake of the scenario, once again bear with me.
3)As in CalBear's The Anglo/American-Nazi War, the lack of German divisions in North Africa allows the Heer to totally pound the Soviet Union into submission, due to more units and just a tad more luck then in OTL. The entire western Soviet Union is annexed up to the A-A line.
That's the scenario as it is so far, feel free to point out the most likely numerous flaws in this scenario. Now, the questions are:
1)Territory of the minor Axis nations as a result of 'victory' in the war?: Let's start with what we know. First of all:
-Romania would gain Besserabia back, and gain Transnistria as a reward for their commitment to the war. I had a thought of giving them all of Crimea as well, but that sounded too ridiculous to me, so Transnistria is all they get.
-Hungary would most likely keep Northern Transylvania due to German assistance, plus the Yugoslav provinces they take during that short war. Forgive me, I forget the name of them at the moment.
-Now here's the more direct questioning. Where would Italy go first of all? They, as stated earlier, might receive parts of Egypt and Malta, and would retain their African colonies. The coast of Dalmatia as well, and Greece would be under occupation with some territories annexed. Mussolini, boosted in popularity by these relatively easy annexations, might go on a spree of African or Middle Eastern annexations, with the approval of Hitler, against the French State, which would only give minor protest as a result of their German watchers turning on them. Maybe even Turkey, if Mussolini's feeling particularly stupid and daring. The possibilities are all over for the vainglorious 'great power'.
-Next, the French State. After the war, and with the guarantee of loyalty by Petain, Hitler withdraws from France after the approval of the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine to Germany, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica to Italy, and the occupation of certain ports like Cherbourg for a certain number of years. The Republican remnants in Africa would remain a nuisance, so war or diplomacy will end the threat between them. France has no where to go really, except if the Germans are feeling generous and give them Wallonia as some compensation for the loss of Alsace-Lorraine. But in the end, France would remain a loyal Axis member, without their Asian colonies and possibly some African land maybe. Thoughts on this idea and the territorial status of the French State in this timeline would be appreciated.
Finally, Finland. From the little time most Axis victory timelines spend on Finland, they either regain the land they lost in the Winter War, or maybe even annex all of Karelia. I've seen some speculation of them annexing some northern portions of Norway as well.
Question 2) New members of the Axis?
-I think it's fair to say that Spain would acquiesce quickly to a German-dominated Europe. Franco was in all but name an ally of Hitler's, so if there was no threat to his reign if he sided with Germany, he would do so in a heartbeat. Same with Antonio Salazar. Spain might look hungrily at both Gibraltar and portions of French Morocco, and depending on your thoughts they could gain both. Portugal might seek investment or aid from Germany in policing Angola and Mozambique, which they may or may not adhere to, your choice. For this timeline I'm not having Germany build up a huge African Empire or anything, the very thought of it being more then a bit stupid to me. Italy, Spain, and Portugal will be the only ones with eyes on Africa, French and Belgian Africa to be more precise, while at worst Britain will stand by doing nothing.
-I might see Sweden leaning further towards the Axis overtime, what with being surrounded by them and all. After loyalist governments are fully-formed and stabilized in Denmark and Norway, German occupation forces leave on the promise of Sweden joining their alliance. They accept. Or they may not.
-Any other nations that might join the Axis? With Europe being under their domination, possibly Turkey, though I lean towards them continuing to play them off still. I don't see any South American nations joining them, besides maybe Argentina at best, and even that's asking a bit much.
Question 3) Society in post-war Axis
-We all know the depressing parts of this. Jews, Slavs, Roma, and such would all be 'removed' from the Axis nations over time. Or, actually, they may not. A decent idea that's been wriggling around in my head for an ATL was Mussolini showing some back-bone in regards to Hitlers demands for anti-Semitic laws, what with Fascism drawing in many Italian Jews at first. The same might happen in Bulgaria, and Romania as well, though most certainly not the the Hungarians and French Fascists who were more keen on the whole 'kill the untermenschen' thing.
-Yugoslavia would be practically depopulated save for the Croats, and the former USSR would be sheered down over time. If their would be significant resistance in the USSR still from partisans would be up to you I suppose. Finland pretty much told Germany to fuck off to that whole Final Solution thing, so whether this incurs the ire of Germany after the war is to be determined.
Now, some might say the other Axis nations would become little more then puppets to Hitler, and I can see some merit in this. Though once Germany wins in the East, I cannot imaging them diverting forces to occupy their allies. Thus why they would withdraw from France, Denmark, Norway, and the other assorted lands divisions are in, they need all the manpower they have available to occupy their Lebensraum. Thus, I see the other Axis nations being relatively independent, still maintaining cordial relations with Germany at the very least.
-The Jews might actually find sanctuary in Italy, Romania (The Holocaust in Romania being more inconsistent then anything else really), and Finland, moving there en masse. Hitler may or may not even accept this, with no Jewish Holocaust even happening in favor of diverting those Jews out of his land, making them some other nation's problem. This seems a little unlikely to me honestly, but I have heard it proposed it before, so do discuss. Most Slavs, Poles, Roma, and Homosexuals are pretty much fucked though, sadly.
-Fascism would still be prevalent, maybe even throughout the rest of the twentieth century in fact. Ion Antonescu remains in power in Romania, though perhaps after time a Franco-esque scenario may emerge where Monarchists oust him from power, or he might stay in power till a suitable heir is groomed. Horthy remains popular in Hungary due to his territorial gains. The Tsar stays in power in Bulgaria, and as said before Italy would remain largely the same. Petain and Action Francaise rules a relatively content France, with German occupying forces mostly gone now and the Milice proving an adequate deterrent to any possible revolutionaries.
-The question is though, would they maintain their current hold in power, or would revolution sweep them out? If so, I could see Germany moving in to 'set up order', i.e making them puppets in all but name.
-Or, plans form. In the years following the final defeat of the Soviet Union, the other powers see Germany's hold on Europe being just a bit too tight. Germany has gotten complacent. A bit too assured in their ideals of racial superiority. Numerous things could cause this France yearns for Alsace back. Italy wants to be the sole main power in the Axis. The Balkan nations wanting to shake off the German yoke thrust upon them. No matter what, feelers are sent out to the rest of the Axis excluding Germany, and possibly even the US. An alliance is made.
-Soon, divisions from Romania are sent into German Ukraine, facing stiff resistance but overwhelming the garrisons in time. Bulgaria and Hungary drive them out of Yugoslavia. Finnish troops land in the former Baltic states and in St. Petersburg. French tanks and infantry storm through Alsace, catching the complacent Germans off guard. Depending on how you want this to go, US supplies or even troops flow into the nations, a ceasefire being accepted with the only condition being a complete annihilation of Hitler's regime. The fighting is fierce, as veteran Wehrmacht divisions are drawn back into arms, but let's say through luck, and just a bit of skill and preparation, the Neo-Axis (As I shall refer to them) reach Berlin itself, the now terminally-insane Hitler biting his tongue out before Bersaglieri units force their way into the mental hospital he is held in.
That is only a thought mind you, a perhaps desperate grasp at thinking the other nations of the Axis would turn humane over time and side on the relative right side, whether out of their own gain or to save their own peoples. Nevertheless, think over the questions I've proposed, and answer them genuinely. I'd love to hear thoughts on this. Thanks for reading.
This idea came about due to the literal horde of 'Germany wins, Nazis R TEH AWESOME/TEH EVULZS' threads I've seen, or the idiotic 'Japan conquers China, kicks US and the British Commonwealth out of Asia' ones as well. Most people I've met, thankfully almost no one on this site, seem to entirely forget there were Axis powers besides Germany and Japan, and I sometimes think us Americans would forget them too if not for the memory of Pearl Harbor being shoved down our throats. Many forget that the vaunted Afrika Korps was comprised primarily of Italians, and the Italians contribution (For better or worse) in the Second Great War itself. There's little mention of Hungarian, Romanian, or general collaboration in regards to the Holocaust, or their general goals in the war. So I wanted an Axis victory timeline that isn't focused entirely on Germany or Japan, but in these minor players.
To start off, let's imagine a scenario for the Axis victory. It might be a tad ASB in nature, I admit, but considering this isn't a serious timeline bear with me here.
1)The UK signs an armistice under Lord Halifax with the German Reich and the rest of the European Axis as they had planned to do. Perhaps this is caused by various factors, maybe the Italians actually being competent and/or well-supplied and taking Malta and Egypt, though this can happen without the UK losing any territory if you prefer. I can't bear to even think of Germany actually invading Britain, so that's the most likely way for their to be peace in the west.
2)The US either stays neutral, or gets into a singular war with Japan, and defeats it as in OTL, even faster actually due to the lack of a Germany to focus on. Due to the peace with Britain, Germany and the US do not declare war on each other, as Hitler finds no reason to support his 'Asiatic inferiors' when his Anglo-Saxon brothers across the channel have become so amicable. Or if you prefer Roosevelt manages to get a declaration of war, or Hitler does his usual stupid shit and declares war, but even then the US cannot get a decent base to invade 'Fortress Europa.' Let us also handwave nuclear weapons away, due to the quick defeat of Japan and huge casualties ITTL's Operation Downfall eliminating the need or desire for nuclear weapons, as either the new found peace will delay nukes, or the US feels this single bomb, no matter how powerful, will stop a continent wide empire without killing needless civilians under Nazi rule. For the sake of the scenario, once again bear with me.
3)As in CalBear's The Anglo/American-Nazi War, the lack of German divisions in North Africa allows the Heer to totally pound the Soviet Union into submission, due to more units and just a tad more luck then in OTL. The entire western Soviet Union is annexed up to the A-A line.
That's the scenario as it is so far, feel free to point out the most likely numerous flaws in this scenario. Now, the questions are:
1)Territory of the minor Axis nations as a result of 'victory' in the war?: Let's start with what we know. First of all:
-Romania would gain Besserabia back, and gain Transnistria as a reward for their commitment to the war. I had a thought of giving them all of Crimea as well, but that sounded too ridiculous to me, so Transnistria is all they get.
-Hungary would most likely keep Northern Transylvania due to German assistance, plus the Yugoslav provinces they take during that short war. Forgive me, I forget the name of them at the moment.
-Now here's the more direct questioning. Where would Italy go first of all? They, as stated earlier, might receive parts of Egypt and Malta, and would retain their African colonies. The coast of Dalmatia as well, and Greece would be under occupation with some territories annexed. Mussolini, boosted in popularity by these relatively easy annexations, might go on a spree of African or Middle Eastern annexations, with the approval of Hitler, against the French State, which would only give minor protest as a result of their German watchers turning on them. Maybe even Turkey, if Mussolini's feeling particularly stupid and daring. The possibilities are all over for the vainglorious 'great power'.
-Next, the French State. After the war, and with the guarantee of loyalty by Petain, Hitler withdraws from France after the approval of the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine to Germany, Nice, Savoy, and Corsica to Italy, and the occupation of certain ports like Cherbourg for a certain number of years. The Republican remnants in Africa would remain a nuisance, so war or diplomacy will end the threat between them. France has no where to go really, except if the Germans are feeling generous and give them Wallonia as some compensation for the loss of Alsace-Lorraine. But in the end, France would remain a loyal Axis member, without their Asian colonies and possibly some African land maybe. Thoughts on this idea and the territorial status of the French State in this timeline would be appreciated.
Finally, Finland. From the little time most Axis victory timelines spend on Finland, they either regain the land they lost in the Winter War, or maybe even annex all of Karelia. I've seen some speculation of them annexing some northern portions of Norway as well.
Question 2) New members of the Axis?
-I think it's fair to say that Spain would acquiesce quickly to a German-dominated Europe. Franco was in all but name an ally of Hitler's, so if there was no threat to his reign if he sided with Germany, he would do so in a heartbeat. Same with Antonio Salazar. Spain might look hungrily at both Gibraltar and portions of French Morocco, and depending on your thoughts they could gain both. Portugal might seek investment or aid from Germany in policing Angola and Mozambique, which they may or may not adhere to, your choice. For this timeline I'm not having Germany build up a huge African Empire or anything, the very thought of it being more then a bit stupid to me. Italy, Spain, and Portugal will be the only ones with eyes on Africa, French and Belgian Africa to be more precise, while at worst Britain will stand by doing nothing.
-I might see Sweden leaning further towards the Axis overtime, what with being surrounded by them and all. After loyalist governments are fully-formed and stabilized in Denmark and Norway, German occupation forces leave on the promise of Sweden joining their alliance. They accept. Or they may not.
-Any other nations that might join the Axis? With Europe being under their domination, possibly Turkey, though I lean towards them continuing to play them off still. I don't see any South American nations joining them, besides maybe Argentina at best, and even that's asking a bit much.
Question 3) Society in post-war Axis
-We all know the depressing parts of this. Jews, Slavs, Roma, and such would all be 'removed' from the Axis nations over time. Or, actually, they may not. A decent idea that's been wriggling around in my head for an ATL was Mussolini showing some back-bone in regards to Hitlers demands for anti-Semitic laws, what with Fascism drawing in many Italian Jews at first. The same might happen in Bulgaria, and Romania as well, though most certainly not the the Hungarians and French Fascists who were more keen on the whole 'kill the untermenschen' thing.
-Yugoslavia would be practically depopulated save for the Croats, and the former USSR would be sheered down over time. If their would be significant resistance in the USSR still from partisans would be up to you I suppose. Finland pretty much told Germany to fuck off to that whole Final Solution thing, so whether this incurs the ire of Germany after the war is to be determined.
Now, some might say the other Axis nations would become little more then puppets to Hitler, and I can see some merit in this. Though once Germany wins in the East, I cannot imaging them diverting forces to occupy their allies. Thus why they would withdraw from France, Denmark, Norway, and the other assorted lands divisions are in, they need all the manpower they have available to occupy their Lebensraum. Thus, I see the other Axis nations being relatively independent, still maintaining cordial relations with Germany at the very least.
-The Jews might actually find sanctuary in Italy, Romania (The Holocaust in Romania being more inconsistent then anything else really), and Finland, moving there en masse. Hitler may or may not even accept this, with no Jewish Holocaust even happening in favor of diverting those Jews out of his land, making them some other nation's problem. This seems a little unlikely to me honestly, but I have heard it proposed it before, so do discuss. Most Slavs, Poles, Roma, and Homosexuals are pretty much fucked though, sadly.
-Fascism would still be prevalent, maybe even throughout the rest of the twentieth century in fact. Ion Antonescu remains in power in Romania, though perhaps after time a Franco-esque scenario may emerge where Monarchists oust him from power, or he might stay in power till a suitable heir is groomed. Horthy remains popular in Hungary due to his territorial gains. The Tsar stays in power in Bulgaria, and as said before Italy would remain largely the same. Petain and Action Francaise rules a relatively content France, with German occupying forces mostly gone now and the Milice proving an adequate deterrent to any possible revolutionaries.
-The question is though, would they maintain their current hold in power, or would revolution sweep them out? If so, I could see Germany moving in to 'set up order', i.e making them puppets in all but name.
-Or, plans form. In the years following the final defeat of the Soviet Union, the other powers see Germany's hold on Europe being just a bit too tight. Germany has gotten complacent. A bit too assured in their ideals of racial superiority. Numerous things could cause this France yearns for Alsace back. Italy wants to be the sole main power in the Axis. The Balkan nations wanting to shake off the German yoke thrust upon them. No matter what, feelers are sent out to the rest of the Axis excluding Germany, and possibly even the US. An alliance is made.
-Soon, divisions from Romania are sent into German Ukraine, facing stiff resistance but overwhelming the garrisons in time. Bulgaria and Hungary drive them out of Yugoslavia. Finnish troops land in the former Baltic states and in St. Petersburg. French tanks and infantry storm through Alsace, catching the complacent Germans off guard. Depending on how you want this to go, US supplies or even troops flow into the nations, a ceasefire being accepted with the only condition being a complete annihilation of Hitler's regime. The fighting is fierce, as veteran Wehrmacht divisions are drawn back into arms, but let's say through luck, and just a bit of skill and preparation, the Neo-Axis (As I shall refer to them) reach Berlin itself, the now terminally-insane Hitler biting his tongue out before Bersaglieri units force their way into the mental hospital he is held in.
That is only a thought mind you, a perhaps desperate grasp at thinking the other nations of the Axis would turn humane over time and side on the relative right side, whether out of their own gain or to save their own peoples. Nevertheless, think over the questions I've proposed, and answer them genuinely. I'd love to hear thoughts on this. Thanks for reading.
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