Happy and Glorious.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Devolved

Happy and Glorious

continued


January 31st 1947


USSR

Using an airbase in Northern Turkey in order to maximise range an unescorted B29 flew high over Tula one of the cities that Hitler's panzers failed to take. At 10.04 am the Atom Bomb was released and the now depressingly familar mushroom cloud appeared shortly after. This time however, a squadron of Yak 9s armed with RS 82 air to air rockets caught the B29 a quarter of an hour later and opened fire with a barrage of rockets. One of them hit the B29s fusilage causing her to progressively lose altitude and making her an easier target for another Soviet fighter squadron to intercept her on her return flight path. The bomber was eventually brought down just 10 miles short of the Black Sea.

Moscow

Stalin had decided to remain on the outskirts of Moscow as he weighed up his options about Beria. He had decided not to send him to the Caucasus and never even raised the matter. He was instead thinking of sending him to Leningrad within the next few days if Zhadanov failed to restore authority in the city. His plan B was to replace Beria in Moscow with Viktor Abakumov the head of SMERSH who had been in Gorkiy awaiting instructions. After moving Beria to Leningrad and away from his men he would then order his arrest. The presence of large numbers of NKVD troops and men in plain clothes that he didn't know made him wary of taking decisive action.

During the night Stalin had been woken by gunshots very close to his hotel. He was told that looters were being shot and that he was not to worry. The next morning he found that 6 of the 'looters' were part of his own personal bodyguard patrolling the area. He was told that there had been a terrible mistake as the men were found walking the streets after curfew by common NKVD troops who for security reasons had no idea that Stalin and his men were in the area. He was told that 5 NKVD officers had been arrested and were undergoing interrogation by the Moscow authorities. Stalin was now very worried and asked for radio messages to be sent to Krustchev and Abakumov. He no longer trusted the telephones. He also ordered his men to form a perimeter around his hotel and he moved his quarters to the hotel basement.

TBC

Devolved

Not sure why Tula other than it is near Moscow and hence might send a signal. It did survive virtual encirclement during the latter stages of Typhoon but suspect that few will attach much relevance to that.

Things in Moscow sound interesting. I wonder who's going to come out on top. Can't see Beria going that far unless he's very certain of his ground in a clash. Either way its only going to disrupt things more for what's left of the Soviet government. Also rather like the old case of two bald men fighting over a comb.

Steve

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by stevep

Devolved

Not sure why Tula other than it is near Moscow and hence might send a signal. It did survive virtual encirclement during the latter stages of Typhoon but suspect that few will attach much relevance to that.

Things in Moscow sound interesting. I wonder who's going to come out on top. Can't see Beria going that far unless he's very certain of his ground in a clash. Either way its only going to disrupt things more for what's left of the Soviet government. Also rather like the old case of two bald men fighting over a comb.

Steve

Tula had an extensive armaments industry and there was the issue of Moscow being further from Turkey with stronger air defences. The Americans have now lost their first Atom Bomb modified bomber.

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by Devolved

Tula had an extensive armaments industry and there was the issue of Moscow being further from Turkey with stronger air defences. The Americans have now lost their first Atom Bomb modified bomber.

It's also a major railway junction. It's forcing more and more traffic around Moscow to get to the West. There's no more AK-47's coming out of the Tula Arms factory, along with a lot of other small arms.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Devolved

The Americans have now lost their first Atom Bomb modified bomber.

And? stevep didn't ask or comment about that. It's not like the USAF can't modify other B-29's, and they'll have plenty of still modified B-29s surviving (nevermind the possibility of modified incoming B-50's), plus enough bombs to last for quite a number of weeks yet. Not to mention the Soviets must have stripped the front of high altitude capable aircraft to provide enough to cover the intercept, plus the luck involved, particularly since anything coming from the northern half of the approach vector would have had been blown/burned out of the sky.

[PMN1]

Originally Posted by Devolved

The Americans have now lost their first Atom Bomb modified bomber.

Given the situation, I cant see that being much of a problem, i'd have thought there was a program for modifying all B-29's the Silverplate configuration.

The biggest problem is that they are not now interceptable, at least to an alert system which s going to impact on the missions they will do.

[Tyg]

Originally Posted by PMN1

The biggest problem is that they are not now interceptable, at least to an alert system which s going to impact on the missions they will do.

You meant that they're are now interceptable, right?

This is probably going to lead to future missions being done with simultaneous decoys, or with the nuclear bomber in a conventional bomber formation that peels apart toward multiple potential targets.

Might the next nuclear target be east of Moscow this time? Maybe a critical junction connecting Ural mines and industries to the west?

I suppose it pales in comparison to the European front, but taking out Omsk looks like it'd sever Soviet connections to eastern Siberia and the Far East. Might be tougher to hit from existing bases though.

[PMN1]

Originally Posted by Tyg

You meant that they're are now interceptable, right?

Yep.......i blame the Grofield........really should not post anything after coming home from the pub.

[Devolved]

Happy and Glorious

continued


January 31st 1947

USSR

The exact death toll in Tula was never fully known but estimates in later years said that over 38,000 were killed and 75,000 injured in some way. As with the other attacks the death toll was lower than feared because of the flight of almost 50% of the city's population. A significant proportion of the dead were NKVD and police who were being used to keep key workers in place for armaments manufacture.

The news of the bombing in Tula spread to Moscow at an incredible speed that almost matched 21st century social media. In the late afternoon there was a further attempt at an exodus and this time there were NKVD and army personnel throwing away their uniforms and mingling with the civilians. As before there was gunfire and many were killed and injured but the authorities couldn't contain everybody. There were also attacks on known food depots by armed gangs and gun battles were heard across the city.

Stalin was now determined to leave the city and ordered his men to secure a route for him. However he was told that it would be difficult to guarrantee his safety if his entourage (already small for security fears of attracting attention) was identified. Already some locals knew Stalin was in the area and although most were supportive and saying that his presence in Moscow gave them strength there were many who openly hurled abuse at the guards, something unthinkable a few weeks earlier.

Abakumov the head of SMERSH had been contacted by Stalin who asked him to bring hand picked troops to Moscow and secure the airfields as a prelude to an airlift of other troops to secure Moscow and arrest Beria. The activities of the previous night had scared Stalin out of his wits and he knew he had to act before Beria arranged an unfortunate incident for him too. Abakumov had no love for Beria but he wondered what could be achieved by being Stalin's lap dog. He had seen Stalin kill so many loyal people and now Beria was his enemy too. How long would it be before Stalin was ordering troops to be used against him!

He sent a radio message to Stalin saying he would gather his men and be there shortly. After sending his message he went to bed to catch up on some sleep.

Meanwhile Beria had been busy too. The killing of some of Stalin's bodyguards really was a genuine misunderstanding that took place when NKVD troops returning from a patrol ran into men in civilian clothes loking through a shop window. They challenged the men who replied that they were on government business. The troops had heard too many excuses like that in the previous few days and the arrogance of the men annoyed them so much that they opened fire killing 3 and injuring another 3. They examined the men and found that they really were working for the government. In a panic they decided to get rid of witnesses by executing the 3 wounded.

Beria knew no one would believe it and that Stalin would probably be pushed over the edge by having 6 of his men shot a few hundred metres from his bed. He summoned a meeting of his closest officers many of whom were scared to death of both Stalin and Beria. He ordered the area around Stalin's hotel to be sealed off for the leader's own 'safety'. He told them that with increasing lawlessness it was not inconceivable that some member of the proletariat would allow fear to overcome logic and try to harm anyone in high authority. As a result he requested that a Tank division be moved to defend his bunker and more troops were to be sent to the airfields to ensure 'supplies' could land uninterrupted by bandits. He also warned thatmany bandits would be wearing uniforms.

In the Caucasus Zhukov had set up checkpoints along all the main roads into and out of the region. In some places his troops set them up in defiance of the police and even NKVD. Armenia and Azerbaijan were mostly under his control although in reality large areas of the countryside had become lawless. He was glad that the Turks were showing no action on the Caucasus front and that the Iranians were in no condition to attack anybody. Only the RAF seemed to be fighting the war now.

The next target for Zhukov was to secure Georgia. This was the homeland of Stalin and Beria although he didn't think that was too important anymore but he did want to take control of Tiblisi. To do that would mean either taking on the local NKVD or at least making a deal with them. He would try deal first but to make sure he gave the riskiest order of his career. He ordered two divisions to leave the Caucasus front and head for Tiblisi. His officers were already guessing their commanders intentions and had seen what he had done in Baku but this was blatant and they were scared.

TBC

[The Oncoming Storm]

Can't be much longer now, the only issue is what finally kills off the USSR, internal coup, collapse or more Atom Bombs

[stevep]

Originally Posted by The Oncoming Storm

Can't be much longer now, the only issue is what finally kills off the USSR, internal coup, collapse or more Atom Bombs

The Oncoming Storm

My opinion would be internal coup, collapse then a nasty civil war. I think Vatutin is going to find himself very, very isolated soon. [Although he might not realise it for a week or two]. Does he then surrender or try and fight his way back eastwards? If he surrenders there will be a lot of people wanted to avenge his army's behaviour, especially when reports of Berlin and the massacres in occupied territory gets out.

Presumably another general has been in charge of the forces that overran Poland so he will have to make some unpleasant decisions as well, as will those commanding forces attacking Greece and Turkey and the ones with Tito.

Think the key question is how much the allies try to clear up. They will seek to liberate and restore order to Poland, Germany, Czechoslovakia etc. However will they either depose Tito or at least restore a pro-western N Yugoslavia? Will they try doing anything in parts of the former SU and if so which or just cordon it off and let the warlords fight it out? Similarly with China and the mess there? Think Korea will be unified but how much further would the US, since it would basically be them there, seek to exert authority?

Steve

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by stevep

The Oncoming Storm

My opinion would be internal coup, collapse then a nasty civil war. I think Vatutin is going to find himself very, very isolated soon. [Although he might not realise it for a week or two]. Does he then surrender or try and fight his way back eastwards? If he surrenders there will be a lot of people wanted to avenge his army's behaviour, especially when reports of Berlin and the massacres in occupied territory gets out.

Presumably another general has been in charge of the forces that overran Poland so he will have to make some unpleasant decisions as well, as will those commanding forces attacking Greece and Turkey and the ones with Tito.

Think the key question is how much the allies try to clear up. They will seek to liberate and restore order to Poland, Germany, Czechoslovakia etc. However will they either depose Tito or at least restore a pro-western N Yugoslavia? Will they try doing anything in parts of the former SU and if so which or just cordon it off and let the warlords fight it out? Similarly with China and the mess there? Think Korea will be unified but how much further would the US, since it would basically be them there, seek to exert authority?

Steve

A lot of these questions will be answered in time but there's no way Tito will be allowed to stay. He is a Soviet ally and he wouldn't be tolerated in a post WW3 Europe won by the West. The same will be true of Enver Hoxha.

[PMN1]

Originally Posted by Devolved

They examined the men and found that they really were working for the government. In a panic they decided to get rid of witnesses by executing the 3 wounded.



TBC

Not a life enhancing move I suspect.........

[stevep]

Originally Posted by PMN1

Not a life enhancing move I suspect.........

PMN1

I think they concluded, rightly in my opinion, their chances of surviving would be better if the 3 wounded bodyguards couldn't give their side of the story. If they did I think it would be a race between Stalin and Beria who would kill them first.

Steve

[Otis R. Needleman]

Originally Posted by Devolved

A lot of these questions will be answered in time but there's no way Tito will be allowed to stay. He is a Soviet ally and he wouldn't be tolerated in a post WW3 Europe won by the West. The same will be true of Enver Hoxha.

Funny you mentioned Hoxha. Was shopping in the commissary yesterday and encountered a young foreign couple. Asked the husband where he was from and he said, "Albania". Got a chance to use my few words of Albanian. Had never met an actual Albanian. The young man and his wife were very nice, an Albanian military family here for the husband's schooling. Wished them a great stay in the USA.

[Otis R. Needleman]

Originally Posted by stevep

The Oncoming Storm

My opinion would be internal coup, collapse then a nasty civil war. I think Vatutin is going to find himself very, very isolated soon. [Although he might not realise it for a week or two]. Does he then surrender or try and fight his way back eastwards? If he surrenders there will be a lot of people wanted to avenge his army's behaviour, especially when reports of Berlin and the massacres in occupied territory gets out.

Presumably another general has been in charge of the forces that overran Poland so he will have to make some unpleasant decisions as well, as will those commanding forces attacking Greece and Turkey and the ones with Tito.

Think the key question is how much the allies try to clear up. They will seek to liberate and restore order to Poland, Germany, Czechoslovakia etc. However will they either depose Tito or at least restore a pro-western N Yugoslavia? Will they try doing anything in parts of the former SU and if so which or just cordon it off and let the warlords fight it out? Similarly with China and the mess there? Think Korea will be unified but how much further would the US, since it would basically be them there, seek to exert authority?

Steve

Yup, the fans are revving and the shit is starting to enter by the boatload.

Agree, internal coup, some sort of Soviet civil war, the effort in the West collapses. Retreat turns into a rout and not much organized Red Army gets back to the Rodina. The Allies retake all lost ground in Central and Eastern Europe, including Hungary, Romania, and Czechoslovakia. Tito and Hoxha are out and Yugoslavia and Albania are liberated. The Allies advance to the pre-WWIII border with the USSR and hold hard, under orders to advance no further.

[Tyg]

Originally Posted by Otis R. Needleman

The Allies advance to the pre-WWIII border with the USSR and hold hard, under orders to advance no further.

And which border will that actually end up being? Strictly speaking, under that scenario the Allies would hold the Baltic states, Bessarabia, the areas that were part of Poland, and Carpathian Ukraine.

If the Allies are willing to liberate the Baltic states, they might as well be prepared for occupation of pre-'39 Soviet territory at the very least to secure their military position in those areas. If Soviet armies are still trying to fight the allies, even if simply at the Soviet border of 1939, then they still have yet to be defeated.

After all, why would the Allies feel compelled to offer anything to Beria if he manages to wrest control from Stalin? He wouldn't be in a position to make any demands himself, and should the Allies seek justice in the manner of the Nuremberg trials, Beria would almost certainly end up having an appointment scheduled with a hangman.

Beria's own moral culpability aside, would he even be recognized as the new Soviet leader by anyone outside Moscow's environs? The Soviet armies in the West have swept to the Rhine, angry and vengeful over the atomic bombings, and Beria presumably wants to surrender. Would they accept that? Beria cannot compel Tito, Hoxa, or Mao to give up either, so what good is he to the Allies?

[Otis R. Needleman]

Originally Posted by Tyg

And which border will that actually end up being? Strictly speaking, under that scenario the Allies would hold the Baltic states, Bessarabia, the areas that were part of Poland, and Carpathian Ukraine.

If the Allies are willing to liberate the Baltic states, they might as well be prepared for occupation of pre-'39 Soviet territory at the very least to secure their military position in those areas. If Soviet armies are still trying to fight the allies, even if simply at the Soviet border of 1939, then they still have yet to be defeated.

After all, why would the Allies feel compelled to offer anything to Beria if he manages to wrest control from Stalin? He wouldn't be in a position to make any demands himself, and should the Allies seek justice in the manner of the Nuremberg trials, Beria would almost certainly end up having an appointment scheduled with a hangman.

Beria's own moral culpability aside, would he even be recognized as the new Soviet leader by anyone outside Moscow's environs? The Soviet armies in the West have swept to the Rhine, angry and vengeful over the atomic bombings, and Beria presumably wants to surrender. Would they accept that? Beria cannot compel Tito, Hoxa, or Mao to give up either, so what good is he to the Allies?

Good question. For the present time the Allies hold hard at the pre-WWIII border. They aren't in any condition to do much more. Going to need to rebuild and refit their forces.

I can see the Baltics being freed after the Soviet civil war. Couldn't even hazard a guess as to who'll end up in charge, or if the USSR breaks up into its' constituent republics, as in 1992. The only thing certain right now is uncertainty. Your guess is as good as mine.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Devolved

There was naval activity at the beginning but the Russians have broken through in Bulgaria and will soon be threatening Istanbul and could trap the Allied ships in the Black sea.

Good point. Turkey's harbors on the Black Sea are very limited in scope, though they are fed by rail lines. Their only large ports are between Istanbul and the Syrian border.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Derek Pullem

Slight anachronism (unless something butterflied it) - SMERSH was merged back into the army in 1946 OTL. But it's such a great name!

I butterflied that. I did check on Wikipedia about SMERSH before writing but I figured that with a different ending to WW2 and a short pause before WW3 the Soviet's would have kept most of their WW2 structures in place.

[Roisterer]

Originally Posted by Tyg

Beria's own moral culpability aside, would he even be recognized as the new Soviet leader by anyone outside Moscow's environs? The Soviet armies in the West have swept to the Rhine, angry and vengeful over the atomic bombings, and Beria presumably wants to surrender. Would they accept that? Beria cannot compel Tito, Hoxa, or Mao to give up either, so what good is he to the Allies?

Look at Beria's survival time after Stalin's IOTL. He was hated by most of the politburo and the army. I can maybe see him carving out a fief around Moscow with his own retinue, but Secretary of the Party? Unlikely.

Regards

R