Not really a potential country but....
The Holy State of Acholi, basically a country in central Africa run by Joseph Kony and Alice Auma, if they could have joined forces and if the governments around them were just a little bit more incompetent. Regardless of how militarily weak they would be compared to a major power, in their neighbourhood massive armies of guys with small arms seems to work just fine. Just imagine if Uganda, the DRC, South Sudan, Chad and the CAR were overrun by the LRA and turned into a quasi-Christian tribal totalitarian theocracy. Baaaaad shit right there.
Another bump....
Is no one interested?
Another bump....
Is no one interested?
I don't know a whole lot about East African history, so I'm probably about to put my foot in my mouth, but since no one else is replying...
My impression of Kony and Auma is that both are/were too insane to hold a country together, even a small one. I generally discount claims that a political leader is nuts. But Auma claimed to see visions on a regular basis, and Kony... I don't know if Kony actually hallucinates, but there's something not right in that guy's head.
Also, I thought Kony didn't emerge as a significant force until after Auma had been defeated? My impression of Auma was that she was a decent human being, and I doubt they would have worked together, although he might have been able to use her as a puppet.
So that's my two Ugandan shillings: I don't think they could pull it off. Take it for what it's worth - and, if you look up the exchange rate, you'll know exactly how little that is.
The way I saw their "state" working out was less of an internationally recognized state and more of an area of territory controlled by the LRA or an LRA equivalent, with sovereignty technically falling to recognized governments and no one willing to commit the resources to clear the LRA out.
My 1st PoD i that Yoweri Museveni is killed in a car accident in Mombasa in 1984. The 2nd PoD is that Idi Amin decides not to invade Tanzania, but slowly becomes more and more insane, with his hold of Uganda weakening. Uganda will eventually splinter and fall apart, with various generals vying for power with foreign backing. With this, Alice Auma's Holy Spirit Movement, with Joseph Kony as "Christ's Hammer" (the military leader) and Auma as the spiritual leader, "liberates" Acholiland from Uganda and forms the "Holy State of Acholiland". Its army, called the Lord's Crusade (LC), launches attacks into neighbouring regions including Lugbara, south Sudan and the unstable DRC in order to gain weapons, territory, slaves and items for sale to purchase more weapons. Kony and Auma, with some covert financing from evangelical groups funnelled through South Africa, begin to construct a sort of state, based on a quasi-biblical model of roaming "holy judges", who essentially act as a hybrid of military governor, judge, and secret police. They are supported by troops from the LC, and they quickly bring tribal leaders under their rule. Enterprising young local commanders of the omnipresent LC begin production of marijuana as well as human, arms and drug trafficking. Much of this foreign currency will be taxed and placed into either Swiss bank accounts or used to purchase more black market weapons.
By the early 90s, with the collapse of the USSR, the Americans will get more involved in fighting Acholiland, supporting Smuts Guweddeko, the now-President of a rump Uganda, in his war against Kony and the Lord's Crusade. Fighting continues until today, with few gains being made against the entrenched Acholi militias. Few have ever visited the Holy State, and even fewer have made it out alive.
I suspect eliminating the second Obote regime would butterfly Auma and Kony away entirely. The second Obote regime wasn't nearly as well known as Amin, but it was probably about as bloody. Also, I think you may be being a bit too harsh on Auma - she was never even a tenth as evil as Kony is. Thinking about it more, I doubt he'd even be willing to use her as a figurehead - he claims to have his own deific visions, after all; he doesn't need her.
If you can get hold of it, I highly recommend Alice Lakwena and the Holy Spirits: War in Northern Uganda, 1985-97, by James Curry. Goes into considerable detail on Auma and the Holy Spirit Movement. It's where pretty much all I know about Auma comes from, and it's a fascinating book in its own right.
I like Azander's scenario, although I would imagine the support of foreign evangelicals would dry up real fast once they realize what manner of monster Kony is.
I'll take a look, try to find that. But why would the continuance of the Amin regime butterfly away an Acholi rebellion? It was my impression that they were heavily repressed under both the Amin and Obote governments.
I'm not so sure. Think about what they are very openly supporting in Uganda right now, with laws essentially built to exterminate homosexuals from the Ugandan population. While I would agree that the more mainstream evangelicals might stop donating, and the money would have to flow in secret, i doubt it would stop. It's not like the people the Lord's Crusade are fighting are that much better than them.