The Hlinka Guard might be a headache and require some stomping on, but otherwise I don't see a German-Hungarian division of Slovakia affecting all that much.
I personally see Hungary getting all of it if it doesn't go independent. The Nazis didn't want to deal with it IOTL.Would it be plausible for such a partitioning to even occur though?
Eh? Nobody's doubting a German takeover of Bohemia and Moravia. It's Slovakia that's in question and, if not granted independence, is probably going to be annexed by an irredentist Hungary.This could very well lead to WW2 in March instead of September if Hácha's meeting with Hitler goes differently. Needless to say, the Germans are going to get royally screwed without the free booty they got from the Czechs.
Eh? Nobody's doubting a German takeover of Bohemia and Moravia.
I am.
Hitler sheduled a German invasion of Bohemia and Moravia for the morning of 15 March.
On March 13 he invited Tiso.
On March 14, Slovak independence was declared.
On March 15 he summoned Hácha to Berlin and threatened a Luftwaffe attack on Prague. Hácha suffered a heart attack and gave in to Hitler's demands.
No Slovak declaration of independence might give Hácha enough balls to try and negotiate with Hitler, who might or might not order an invasion later that day to bully him into accepting. If he does and there is no stand-down order, then the Germna army will have to fight the Czechs.
That they will win is without a doubt. The fact that they won't get their hands on a ton of modern tanks, equipment, intact industry etc. should, in this scenario, IMO, also be clear.
Would the Germans want to bother incorporating it/holding it down? The great thing about client states is that they can keep things quiet(ish) on the homefront while you focus on the battlefront.My thought was that the country might get converted into Gau Pressburg and Gau Hauerland. Later, perhaps there is after all a Gau Beskidenland
Would the Germans want to bother incorporating it/holding it down? The great thing about client states is that they can keep things quiet(ish) on the homefront while you focus on the battlefront.
Then this probably gets moved up a few days.
All Tiso's refusal does is buy CZS a tiny bit more time.
Therefor, the Hungarians were in no position to invade CZS properly, only its most easterly province.Hitler, made it absolutely clear that either Slovakia would declare independence immediately and associate itself with Nazi Germany, or he would let the Hungarians, who were reported by Ribbentrop to be massing on the border, take over the country. In fact, encouraged by the Germans, the Hungarians were largely massing on the adjacent Ruthenian border
Much of that Czech materiel will have already been aquired via the anneation of Sudetenland.
If Tiso would not declare independence, it's most likely somebody else would - Prague's authority over Slovakia was weakening by the month since Munich, and it was only a matter of time if Czecho-Slovakia (the post Munich version) would change it's constution de jure accepting Slovakia's autonomy, or if Slovakia would gather enough international support to declare independence on it's own.
They didn't most of the equipment, for example tanks LT vz. 35 and 38 in numbers around 450 were acquired only after March 15th.Much of that Czech materiel will have already been aquired via the anneation of Sudetenland.
The thing is, if Tiso has doubts, the Slovak assembly might not reach a consensus in time. Que the German and Hungarian invasion, and there's nothing binding people together like enemies shooting up both of them.
There were even speculation for Czechoslovak air force to go to Poland. Around 500 fighter planes B-534 could help a bit. And maybe even parts of the tanks German got in march could instead reinforce Poland after retreat.
Actually support for alliance with Poland among Slovak politicians was lost after Poland annexed small parts of Slovak territory in November 1938. After Munich and Vienna it was probably the last drop.Possible. Relations between Poland and the Slovak political parties was quite warm, as Poland considered Czechoslovakias dissoluton inevitable in the first place, and an independent Slovakia gave them more hope for a Intermarum Alliance (Slovakia without the Hungarian territories lost in 1938 no longer had reasons to block such a broad alliance, the Hungarians could be stopped from anexing more territories, and Poland was seen by some as a power capable of stoping the Germans without dominating Slovakia).
As for the Soviet Union - it would do nothing. It still would have to march through Romania or Poland to act, and neither would allow it.
Actually support for alliance with Poland among Slovak politicians was lost after Poland annexed small parts of Slovak territory in November 1938. After Munich and Vienna it was probably the last drop.