PC: Mexican Cuba?

[Enigmajones]

After winning independence from the Spanish, many Mexican politicians agitated for capturing and conquering Cuba from the Spanish to take away an y stage for reconquest. Could Mexico have pulled off such an invasion? And if they did what butterflies would occur?

[Thande]

I've wondered about this as well. If Mexico did get it, would it then become a target for the US in any future Mexican-American War? (Not necessarily exactly like OTL, but some sort of clash seems fairly inevitable).

The scenario I had in mind was Spain doing better in its Reconquista attempts in South America during the 1810s; they take the policy decision to focus there and manage to hang on to the Viceroyalty of La Plata and maybe the Viceroyalty of Peru as well, but write off Mexico and end up conceding all their North American possessions to it: Cuba, Puerto Rico...maybe even Florida?

[TheMadPPSh]

According to Wikipedia, Santa Ana wanted to invade Cuba in 1824 while he was the governor of Yucatan.

[Enigmajones]

Originally Posted by Thande

I've wondered about this as well. If Mexico did get it, would it then become a target for the US in any future Mexican-American War? (Not necessarily exactly like OTL, but some sort of clash seems fairly inevitable).

The scenario I had in mind was Spain doing better in its Reconquista attempts in South America during the 1810s; they take the policy decision to focus there and manage to hang on to the Viceroyalty of La Plata and maybe the Viceroyalty of Peru as well, but write off Mexico and end up conceding all their North American possessions to it: Cuba, Puerto Rico...maybe even Florida?

Well that late in the game the US is going to be taking Florida. I doubt that Mexico would be able to project power that far. But who knows. On another note, I've read that the US was in favor of continued Spanish control of Cuba, so that would be a blocking point, but any ideal Mexican invasion would be supported by the British or French.

[miguelrj]

TTL Mexico would find it very difficult not only to conquer Cuba but also to keep it.
The easier way Mexico can get Cuba is to have a less balkanized Hispanic America. Before Iturbide proclaimed Mexican independence there were proposals to offer the throne of New Spain to a Bourbon. Make this happen and perhaps, if you're an optimist, Mexico/New Spain can even get to keep the Philippines.

[jycee]

You would need an earlier POD. Say the Mexican independence insurgency begins in December of 1799 with a successful Conspiracy of the Machetes, and gains it by 1808. This would be a huge blow for Spain, and would likely trigger earlier insurgencies in South America as well. By the time Spain gets entangled in the whole Napoleonic affair, it might not be in any position to keep a hold on to Cuba.

The US would probably snatch Florida in the process, and if Mexico acts smartly work with the US to divide Louisiana Territory, in the best interest of both nations, which by this point would technically be Mexican. Plus if Mexico and the US establish their borders this early on, (with Mexico granting the US Louisiana) Mexico would have a legitimate claim on Texas and Cuba recognized by the other local power.