Heya folks, I was wondering; in the Battle of Stalingrad, the Germans had a chance to save the Sixth Army at Stalingrad by directing them to the nearest lake, but Hitler said that they should keep Stalingrad at any cost. I was wondering, how would World War 2 venture if Hitler said yes on the saving of the Sixth Army?
German saving of Sixth Army at Stalingrad.
- Thread starter Alue26
- Start date
Snake Featherston
Banned
The attempt would have failed as Sixth Army did not have the resources to break out of the ring it was in. By the time of Operation Ring the Sixth Army was surrounded, and it was surrounded by over 1 million troops when it totaled somewhere around a quarter that number. The Germans had the problem of a lot of the other forces in Stalingrad being more vulnerable satellite armies which the USSR could and did break to worsen the situation for them, so any attempt to break out could easily flounder if German troops succeed but the Soviets punch clean through Italian or Romanian forces and thus pocket another part of the German army in a second pocket within the pocket.
BlairWitch749
Banned
There are certainly 2 sixth army survives scenarios that have been discussed here (1 before and 1 after operation uranus)
Scenario 1: Some sort of POD occurs in north africa or in the US that either delays or cancels operation torch; meaning the germans keep 3 divisions (10th panzer HG panzer and 2nd parachute) plus a shitload of air transport in reserve instead of having them consumed in Tunisia... this gives Manstein a much more substantial relief force allowing him to break through and free the 6th army
Scenario 2: Paulus (or someone else) doesn't ask Hitler's permission to break out the moment forces at detected locking the pincers at Kalach and Kotelnikovo; instead Paulus (or someone else) immediately masses the still very large and potent sixth army for a breakout to the south west in conjunction with relieving forces marching from the north and south (if handled brilliantly this actually has some chance of pinching off some of the spearheads behind Paulus)
Snake Featherston
Banned
Scenario I requires the USSR to just sit there and do nothing in this context, not altering the plan for Little Saturn any at all.
Scenario II ignores the problem of all the satellite troops and the ever-present reality that if 200,000 Germans plus 200,000 Romanians are trying to attack, the Soviets just have to puncture the satellite armies to weaken the German attempt without doing anything to the Germans.
Not quite. General Marshall wanted an invasion of France in 1942 (SLEDGEHAMMER). The problem was that a) the bulk of the forces would have been British and there weren't enough landing craft even if Brooke had agreed to it and b) the US forces were totally unseasoned - Kasserine Pass may have been a disaster but it taught some very valuable lessons.
Snake Featherston
Banned
Germany doesn't have what it takes to destroy the Soviet Union. Historically when Stalin destroyed his entire officer corps and left an inexperienced officer corps understandably scared to step the least little bit out of line saddled with obsolete equipment too far forward at Stalin's own request the Nazis were incapable of bringing any of their great tactical victories into a strategic result, in no small part because the Soviets were shifting a lot of the industry the Nazis wanted to loot past the Urals along with a lot of the workers and in part because the Nazis very strongly underestimated the potential of the Zerg Rush as a desperation tactic.
At least on the surface the USSR of 1941 was ripe for the pickings, but when the Germans slammed into Soviet armies they did not know existed starting at the Battle of Smolensk and going on from there their plan had already failed as they were drawn into the interior of the USSR against army after army.
By the time of Stalingrad the results of the previous year of war had attenuated German power to the point that they were betting heavily on capturing both Stalingrad, to isolate the Caucasus, and the Caucasus and were drawn by the Soviets into the kind of fight where Chuikov and Eremenko negated everything the Germans had previously done successfully and where they had insufficient manpower to secure their supply lines and even get to Grozny, let alone Baku.
Germany can't defeat the USSR, and if it goes for Barbarossa and can't do that then its defeat is a matter of time.
BlairWitch749
Banned
I don't exactly know what they could do differently with little saturn if manstein's relief forces where larger... the smart thing would be to shift them south to combat Manstein's spearheads directly to keep him from breaking into the city; those forces being able to hold a reinforced Manstein is at best 50/50
The forces in Paulus rear during the link up phase of Uranus where still relatively small; certainly inferior to the massed strength of his 20 German divisions (which included an AA division and a panzer corps) whilst they still had a decent amount of supplies on hand. This move undoubtedly costs the Germans a shitload of equipment; but the 6th army was strong enough where if it broke out immediately it could break the forces on its rear whilst conducting a strong rear guard and keeping open an escape route for army group A
Snake Featherston
Banned
Not necessarily, given the vulnerability of Manstein's own spearheads at the time and the reality that all the Soviets have to do with Sixth Army is crack open a few satellite forces and that army will have to fall back, which isn't likely to spur Manstein on more if he thinks he's walking into a buzzsaw. Man was rather smarter than that.
You keep forgetting about the Italian and Romanian forces still in the city, those aren't really going to want to *stay* in Stalingrad and if the Soviets want to crack up any breakout, smash a few Romanian and Italian divisions and make the Germans double back to prevent a double encirclement of even part of Sixth Army and that will keep the breakout from happening.
Supposing a deeply undeserved element of luck is with the Germans in this scenario, leading to the "handled brilliantly" outcome, what is the Soviet countermove? Do the Russians pull back to the city and the Volga to build up a defense (again), or would they have the capacity to keep the pressure up even with the loss of those offensive spearheads?
Snake Featherston
Banned
The Soviet countermove is simply to exploit the same satellite Achilles' Heel that allowed them to make the encirclement outside Stalingrad and put Paulus at risk of having Russians in his rear and able to start bashing into him from the other side. It wasn't just German troops that marched into captivity and the Gulag in 1943, and those same troops will be smashed like a sledgehammer hitting a gnat if Paulus actually tries this and all the brilliant handling in the world won't repair that confusion if it's just ignored.
BlairWitch749
Banned
i don't follow your first point regarding scenario I. operation uranus saw the 3rd and 4th romanian armies destroyed north and south of stalingrad respectively with 20 german and 2 romanian divisions trapped inside the stalingrad kessel... the 2nd gaurds army cannot battle manstein's spearheads frontally to keep them out of the city and assault the italian 8th army to the north for little saturn at the same time; plus they lose several days in transit... if manstein has those extra 3 divisions he could hold the 2nd gaurds to the north whilst having his winter storm spearhead reach the city without asb's
within scenario 2 i was suggesting the 6th army and all of its subordinate formations mass to the southwest and bail the fuck out of the city; recapture their railhead at kotelnikovo and withdraw towards rostov whilst keeping a supply corridor open for army group a to pull back; withdrawl towards the dawn dramatically shortens the front plus not being confined in the city allows german divisions to adopt more natural spacing as opposed to being locked into a death hell hole... no force behind the germans in the 3rd week of november couldn't be overwhelmed or shoved aside by the concentrated combat power of the 6th army and the luftwaffe;
BlairWitch749
Banned
well the brilliant scenario would probably be less decisive than the 3rd battle of kharkov in terms of russian manpower losses; however with the 6th army successfully able to withdraw behind the don river; the germans still come out massively ahead in the math and create a vastly different strategic and tactical picture for 1943 (although long term they are still fucked)
Snake Featherston
Banned
The point is that no matter what happens with the breakout the Soviets can simply tear through satellite armies to collapse German positions and Manstein's too intelligent to try to bang on through to save an army incapable of saving itself and smart enough to notify Hitler of his withdrawal only after the fact.
Except that all its subordinates includes the aforementioned satellite armies the Soviets would go through like crap through a goose. So the Germans make breakthroughs only to realize the Soviets are in a position to turn a double-somersault on retreating Germans in open terrain. Oopsie......
It might be possible to save part of 6th Army, but it sounds like it would be a matter of a bloody, brutal rear guard - probably a running action and rear guard, and the pieces surviving either being the fastest (not necessarily best) or skeletal formations, and probably both.
And this is assuming things work on the Axis end, which is not a given in these conditions.
Add in Soviet competence and it sucks even worse, so I'm just looking at what the Germans have to work with, which is already too little.
Doom sounds a little harsh, but any possible fate for Sixth Army is not going to be a good outcome. Just "Total disaster" with OTL being not even the worst scenario (Imagine a costly relief effort plus OTL's losses) on one end to "unaffordable disaster" where men escape but not much in the way of equipment as the very best case scenario.
And this is assuming things work on the Axis end, which is not a given in these conditions.
Add in Soviet competence and it sucks even worse, so I'm just looking at what the Germans have to work with, which is already too little.
Doom sounds a little harsh, but any possible fate for Sixth Army is not going to be a good outcome. Just "Total disaster" with OTL being not even the worst scenario (Imagine a costly relief effort plus OTL's losses) on one end to "unaffordable disaster" where men escape but not much in the way of equipment as the very best case scenario.
Snake Featherston
Banned
It would be possible to save parts of it, but the results of a protracted Soviet destruction of the great bulk of it would damage German morale more than the army taken captive did. Those troops that survived will have an understandable reluctance to see the Soviets as inferior subhumans, and the morale damage will only get worse as the Soviets are getting stronger......and of course smashing satellite armies ain't gonna help the Germans with their allies any at all.
Yeah. I think saving a few divisions would be worth it, myself, given how bad OTL was - but its not really a set of choices even a stronger (in the sense Lincoln was strong, say) and wiser man than Hitler would be comfortable with.
Churchill doing the same as Hitler is unpleasantly plausible, to pick someone whose mentality wasn't that far from the Corporal's when it came to telling pride to heel.
So...its a problem. The army can't hold Stalingrad, can't evacuate without losses of greater or lesser levels of "heavy".
Any thoughts on the idea of formations escaping with heavy equipment losses (in both the sense of heavy losses of equipment and losses of heavy equipment) as far as that's a "best possible outcome"?
Germany cannot afford to lose that much manpower.