Abyssinia avoids the Abyss

Or: the Awakening of the Conquering Lion of Judah.

Noticing the paucity of timelines that deal with Africa & African history, and the fact that many timelines treat Africa with neglect, I've wanted to write a timeline centered on the continent for a while. Of course, from reading African history I've always enjoyed Ethiopian history the most and have always dismayed its almost complete collapse following the Revolution of 1974 and rise of the Derg. So, naturally, I've decided to write a timeline based around Ethiopia and having it turn out much better than OTL.

While I've had many of the idea's for this timeline for a while (cf. the UN-iverse, which is another timeline I'd like to get to after The 51st State), I started writing this after getting writer's block while trying to get last week's update for The 51st State up (the next update for The 51st State will be this weekend, for those few fans I have). This timeline will update erratically at best, as The 51st State will continue to be the focus of my poor writing efforts. The style will be a mostly traditional timeline style and it's pretty rough. It's really a version 0.3, and I eventually want to make it into a version 1.0. I am by no means an expert in Ethiopian history, but I've done my fair share of reading on it and am confident enough to give the timeline a stab.

The timeline will probably stretch plausibility a little bit from time to time, but I'm not going to take Ethiopia from 1941 and turn it magically into an First World OECD country by 2010, armed with nukes, spaceflight, stealth fighters, and everything covered in chrome. But the lot of Ethiopia and the average Ethiopian will be better, its position on all fronts will be an improvement on its condition from 1974, and the country will not sink into the sad, sorry state it is in today. There'll probably be some peripheral benefits for other nations as well.

Without further ado, part the first.
 
The Second World War, 1941-1945


1941
May 5 to July 31: After the liberation of Addis Ababa, Emperor Haile Selassie has become convinced that his empire must modernize and liberalize in order to avoid becoming a further target for colonization and dismissal. He his appalled by the revolutionary and destructive order that the Italians wrought and vows to bring Ethiopia to greatness [1].

August: The Atlantic Charter is promulgated by the United States and United Kingdom. The document makes its way to British forces serving in East Africa during 1942 and reaches the Emperor. After some deliberation, Emperor Haile Selassie sends representatives to Washington to request a meeting with the other Allied powers [2]. This creates enormous tension between the Ethiopians and the British, who are de facto administering the territory, although the British are far more concerned with the course of the North African campaign and let the diplomatic mission go [3].

September: Emperor Haile Selassie begins talks with Coptic Orthodox Pope Joseph II of Alexandria on the promotion of the Ethiopian Church to an autocephalous Patriarchate.

December: Using the large caches of weapons the Italian forces left, Emperor Haile Selassie reestablishes the Kebur Zabanga ("Imperial Guard") and places his cousin Ras Haile Darge in command. By the end of 1942, the Imperial Guard numbers some five battalions of about 1000 men each.

On December 8, the United States enters the Second World War against Japan. Germany and Italy declare war several days later.

1943
January 14-25: Casablanca Conference. Emperor Haile Selassie is invited to join the conference by President Roosevelt, and arrives on January 15, after weather held up his sizable group group which includes representatives of the Kebur Zabanga. While the Casablanca Conference focuses on the Italy campaign, the Emperor offers the reconstituted Kebur Zabanga ("Imperial Guard") to participate in Allied operations "wherever they are needed." Furthermore, during Roosevelt's conversations on the status of Jewish immigrants in North Africa after the war, the Emperor offers to take "any and all Jews willing to immigrate to Ethiopia," explaining their historical role in the Solomonic dynasty [4]. The Emperor's offer appeals to Winston Churchill as a possible post-war resolution to the problems in Palestine, if an unlikely solution.

President Roosevelt forms a friendship with the Emperor and agrees that the five battalions of the reformed Kebur Zabanga should participate in the war [5][6]. Furthermore, President Roosevelt promises to meet with the Emperor "once more" to discuss post-war Africa. After some discussion, it is decided that the soldiers will be sent to England to "properly train for the eventual invasion of Italy."

On January 25, Emperor Haile Selasie signs a document bringing Ethiopia formally into the war against Germany.

Ethiopia becomes eligible for lend-lease at this point, although most of the lend-lease is in the form of tractors, oil, and fertilizers instead of tanks and guns.

July: The under-trained Kebur Zabanga arrive in England. They are attached to the 8th Infantry Division and are given American equipment. Under Shaleqa Haile Darge, the troops train intensely [7].

November 23-28: First Cairo Conference. Emperor Haile Selassie joins Churchill, Roosevelt, and Chiang Kai-Shek in Cairo to discuss post-war Asia and Africa. Here, Roosevelt and Haile Selassie begin to strike up sharp disagreements about the threat of communism to the world, with the Emperor going so far as to contemplate "launching a war against them [the Communists] at the earliest opportunity." However, Chiang finds the sentiment admirable and expresses hope for formal Sino-Ethiopian relations "when the Tojo and Mao are both buried."

Despite a growing rift over confronting communism, both Haile Selassie and Roosevelt agree that decolonization should be the ultimate post-war goal (pointing to the Atlantic Charter) for Africa and Asia, to Churchill's chagrin. All parties in attendance agree to continue deploying military force against Japan until it surrenders unconditionally and liberates Manchuria, Formosa, and Korea.

Emperor Haile Selassie signs a document which announces formally brings Ethiopia to war against Japan. The United Kingdom formally relinquishes control over Ethiopia, at Roosevelt's insistence.

1944
June 5: With clear skies and calm seas, the Allies launch Operation Overlord, the invasion of France.

July 4: The "Kagnew Regiment" attached to the 8th Infantry Division land in Europe.

August-September: The Kagnew Regiment is relegated to a rear guard role during the Battle for Brest, although they assisted fighting in the outskirts of Brest.

September-November: The 8th Infantry Division makes its way over to the Ruhr, reaching the Western Front in time for Operation Queen.

November 23-December 16: The 8th Infantry Division joins the Battle for Hurtgen Forest. The Kagnew Battalion participates more fully during the Hurtgen Forest Operation. The stiff German resistance costs the 8th dearly and advancement is slow. The Kagnew Regiment is mostly ignored by German forces, being composed of "untermensch," and the Kagnew Regiment manages to outflank German forces during the battle, ultimately cutting them off. The Kagnew Regiment will receive the Presidential Unit Citation for its actions during the Hurtgen Forest.

December 16: Ardenne Offensive. The Kagnew Regiment doesn't participate in the famous "Battle of the Bulge," instead positioned near Aachen.

Statistics, 1945 [8]:
Population: 20.92 million people
GDP: US$ 6.75 billion
GDP PC: US$ 322

1945
February 11-15: The Kagnew Regiment breaks through to the Ruhr River, spearheading the 8th Infantry's to the river. Three days later, the Kagnew Regiment is part of the Allied Offensive over the river. The Kagnew Regiment takes heavy losses but pushes through into Duren, Germany. The unit will be awarded the Army Meritorious Unit Commendation for its actions during the "Ruhr breakout."

March 1: The 8th Infantry Division reaches the Rhine. Preparations are made to clear the Ruhr Pocket.

March 17-April 3: The Battle of the Ruhr Pocket. The Kagnew Regiment is held up in Duren keeping the peace.

April 1: President Franklin D. Roosevelt dies. Vice President Truman becomes President.

April 20: The 8th Infantry encounters the Wilhemshaven concentration camp (part of the Neuengamme concentration camp), with its 800 prisoners starving to death [9]. The sight of the emaciated prisoners has a great effect on the Kagnew Regiment, who remain in Wiliamshaven for several weeks.

April 21: German forces in Italy and Western Europe surrender to the Democracies. V-E day declared in many nations. Forces in the East will continue fighting against the Soviets for another week before collapsing.

April 25 to June 26: United Nations Conference on International Organization. The Emperor sends representatives to the proceedings.

May 31: The Kagnew Regiment is withdrawn from Wilhemshaven and sent back to Ethiopia to acquire additional replacements and recruits. They will remain in Ethiopia during July and then ship out to the Pacific Theater "when transport becomes available." The Regiment, almost down to a man, volunteers to reenlist in the hopes of confronting fascism in the Pacific.

July 5: General Election in the United Kingdom; Winston Churchill's Tory government is swept out of office and Clementt Attlee's Labour party is swept into power.

July 16: Trinity Nuclear Test is successful; the nuclear age begins.

July 17: Potsdam Declaration: Japan is given the option of surrender or "complete destruction."

August 6-9: Hiroshima is destroyed by an atomic bomb. The Allies repeat their demands, threatening to use "these terrible new weapons until Japan submits." To underscore their demands, Kitakyushu is hit with the second bomb.

August 7: "Operation August Storm" begins in Manchuria as Soviet forces begin striking Japanese forces in Manchuria [10].

August 11: Despite a coup attempt, Emperor Hirohito agrees to unconditionally surrender to the Allied forces following the destruction of Hiroshima and Kitakyushu. V-J Day. World War II has formally ended.

September 24 to October 31: Emperor Haile Selassie, along with some of the soldiers of the Kagnew Regiment, journeys to San Fransisco to sign the United Nations Charter as well as carry out a good will trip and offer open immigration to all Americans who wish to immigrate to Ethiopia. He'll find a spokesman for the movement in Paul Robeson, a famous singer, actor, and Pan-Africanist who agrees to immigrate to Ethiopia "in the near future."

Emperor Haile Selassie proves to be a minor celebrity in the United States among the African American community, as well as America at large.

October 24: Ethiopia signs the charter of the United Nations, becoming one of its founding members.

October 29: The Food and Agriculture Organization is formed, with the goal of ending world hunger.

October 30: India joins the United Nations.

December 1: The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is declared.

December 2: The Democratic Republic of Vietnam is declared.

December 5: The International Monetary Fund begins operating.

Undated
Jewish survivors of the holocaust begin immigrating to Palestine and America, although a small percentage will immigrate to Ethiopia, settling in and around Addis Ababa. They are welcomed warmly by Emperor Haile Selassie and less so by the nobles.

===============
[1]- This is the POD: Basically, Haile Selassie takes on a more reformist mantle post-war instead of focusing increasingly centralizing the power of the state (and thus his own power). This would, of course, weaken his own power base noticeably, but if successful will pretty much neuter the nobility; at least, weaken the uppity Mesafint (hereditary nobles) to the benefit of the Mekwanint (appointed nobles) over whom the Emperor has more sway. So it's not inconceivable.
[2]- Leul Ras is an aristocratic title. Leul refers to those of imperial blood, and Ras is a rank.
[3]- Really, the Brits were pretty restricted in what they could do to an upity Ethiopia; there was still a minor guerrilla war being waged that opposed the Brits and they needed Haile Selassie on their side to help keep those vital lines of communications open to India.
[4]- We can debate the actual role of Solomon in establishing the Solomonic dynasty (i.e., the modern dynasty probably has no relation to Somolon), but it's a useful propaganda piece.
[5]- I might be reaching a little bit, but it's certainly not impossible; both men had a strong attraction to the idea of collective security and the formation of a workable successor to the League of Nations.
[6]- Roosevelt would later write that the decision to have the Kebur Zabanga participate in the war was a "political" move that could be used for propaganda purposes both in America and around the world. It helps to show that the Nazis are fighting against everyone: Slavs, Anglos, French, Belgians, Americans, and even black Africans.
[7]- Litterally, "Commander of a Thousand."
[8]- Statistics for Ethiopia prior to 1980 are hard to come by and tend to conflict a lot, so I've done some extrapolation to estimate Ethiopia's population and GDP in 1940. It is most certainly wrong, but precise numbers aren't too much of an issue.
[9]- ITTL, it was kept running until the last second.
[10]- That is the actual name of the operation ITTL, a slightly arrogant title.
 
Last edited:
Haile Sealssie's ultimate problem was that if he tried to modernize, the aristocracy would depose of him, and if he didn't, well the oppressed peasants and the "disadvantaged" ethnic groups would just be more and more pissed, and revolts would become more frequent. He was in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

Remind me, was Yohannes Iyasu's clumsy coup attempt in 1942 or 43 (I'm quite sure it was shortly after the liberation) or later. If it was, did it happen in this TL?
 
Last edited:
Interesting. It would be nice to see Ethiopia doing well. Perhaps Italy is forced to assist in modernising the country post WW2 as part of a treaty. Or a failed Communist putsch with direct links to Moscow scrambles the western allies to prop up the traditional african kingdom as a potential template for future independent nations in the region. Either way can't be worse then what they are today sadly.
 
Haile Sealssie's ultimate problem was that if he tried to modernize, the aristocracy would depose of him, and if he didn't, well the oppressed peasants and the "disadvantaged" ethnic groups would just be more and more pissed, and revolts would become more frequent. He was in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

Remind me, was Yohannes Iyasu's clumsy coup attempt in 1942 or 43 (I'm quite sure it was shortly after the liberation) or later. If it was, did it happen in this TL?

Well, looking at the evolution of Ethiopia from the start of Haile Selassie's reign through the Revolution, the Emperor had significant opportunities to overhaul the underpinnings of the Ethiopian state, especially in the first decade or so post-war. Of course, Haile Selassie became more concerned with international politics as an end themselves (e.g., being way too involved in building the Non-Aligned Movement and the Organization of African Unity while things were beginning to get hectic in the 1960s domestically), rather than as leverage to modernize Ethiopia. After all, the 1931 Constitution gave Haile Selassie unprecedented control over the state. The question is, could he have more effectively wielded the state's power to break the Mesafint? From what I've read, the answer is yes, but it'd be painful; painful but doable.

As for Yohannes Iyasu's coup attempt, he was shunted into the Kagnew Regiment and sent to Europe at the Emperor's insistence, where he died at Hurtgen. The coup attempt centered around Iyasu V's line & Yohannes Iyasu (more accurately Lij Iyasu) wasn't carried out in the aftermath of the liberation, although most of the movers and shakers are still around.

Interesting. It would be nice to see Ethiopia doing well. Perhaps Italy is forced to assist in modernising the country post WW2 as part of a treaty. Or a failed Communist putsch with direct links to Moscow scrambles the western allies to prop up the traditional african kingdom as a potential template for future independent nations in the region. Either way can't be worse then what they are today sadly.

Well, I'm not gonna tip too much yet. There will be reasons why Ethiopia doesn't devolve into a train-wreck, although the politics of the country mean that it won't be smooth sailing for generations.

Interesting. There are a couple of points where the footnotes refer to bits missed out of the text though.

Think I fixed what you're referring to :eek:.
 
Very interesting start, I've always been interested in Ethiopian history myself so I'm quite intrigued to see where you take this. A solid Western style democracy in Africa or something else entirely?
 
It's rare that you find an Ethiopian timeline in the board. I like it. Can't say I know too much about Ethiopia at all but it's a nice start to me.
 
Looking forward to this - and to 51st State. I'm surprised the Ethiopians didn't get sent off to Italy like the Brazilians did.
Perhaps Ethiopia could agree to take in Jews from the DP camps? Not sure many would come (or stay), but it's something.
 
Well, looking at the evolution of Ethiopia from the start of Haile Selassie's reign through the Revolution, the Emperor had significant opportunities to overhaul the underpinnings of the Ethiopian state, especially in the first decade or so post-war. Of course, Haile Selassie became more concerned with international politics as an end themselves (e.g., being way too involved in building the Non-Aligned Movement and the Organization of African Unity while things were beginning to get hectic in the 1960s domestically), rather than as leverage to modernize Ethiopia. After all, the 1931 Constitution gave Haile Selassie unprecedented control over the state. The question is, could he have more effectively wielded the state's power to break the Mesafint? From what I've read, the answer is yes, but it'd be painful; painful but doable.

As for Yohannes Iyasu's coup attempt, he was shunted into the Kagnew Regiment and sent to Europe at the Emperor's insistence, where he died at Hurtgen. The coup attempt centered around Iyasu V's line & Yohannes Iyasu (more accurately Lij Iyasu) wasn't carried out in the aftermath of the liberation, although most of the movers and shakers are still around.

Well, of course Iyasu's coup could never have worked, since Haile Selassie had him watched. (I mean of course he was watched, a hero of the resistance, son of a deposed emperor that Haile Selassie probably had assassinated when he fled the country, and Iyasu had made it no secret that he considered himself the true emperor since he had stayed and fought while Haile Selassie "cowardly" had fled to Europe. Would be retarded to not have him watched).

A good thing is that the Italians have already weakened the aristocracy, but they'll still fight back. They are still the large landowners, and have a strong influence. And most of them have never really liked Haile Selassie. If the Italians hadn't attacked he would probably have been deposed sometime in the late 30s.

The appointed nobility is easier to control, since they owe their fortune to the emperor, however they can be much more ruthless. It was no secret that they robbed the provinces under their control bare, and usually took the treasury with them when they were dismissed from their posts. They didn't have huge lands to fall back on, but usually just used their power to get as much money out of it as possible. Before the slave trade collapsed due to the Italian invasion, many of them were deeply involved in it.

Dealing with both the hereditary nobility who want to protect their old rights and their land and the appointed nobility who just want to gain as much as possible from their position will be a challenge. While Mengistu was one of Africa's worst leaders ever, it was really no surprise the empire fell. So much injustice, and so little the government could do about it.
 
Very interesting start, I've always been interested in Ethiopian history myself so I'm quite intrigued to see where you take this. A solid Western style democracy in Africa or something else entirely?

We'll see, we'll see :).

It's rare that you find an Ethiopian timeline in the board. I like it. Can't say I know too much about Ethiopia at all but it's a nice start to me.

Well, I hope I'll live up to your expectations.

Looking forward to this - and to 51st State. I'm surprised the Ethiopians didn't get sent off to Italy like the Brazilians did.
Perhaps Ethiopia could agree to take in Jews from the DP camps? Not sure many would come (or stay), but it's something.

The Kagnew Regiment was under-trained and under-equipped, so they were sent to the UK (where most of the men and material were going at that point) to actually train with modern equipment. So, they get attached to the 8th while in the UK.

As for what happens with the Jews post war, I've got a few ideas...

Well, of course Iyasu's coup could never have worked, since Haile Selassie had him watched. (I mean of course he was watched, a hero of the resistance, son of a deposed emperor that Haile Selassie probably had assassinated when he fled the country, and Iyasu had made it no secret that he considered himself the true emperor since he had stayed and fought while Haile Selassie "cowardly" had fled to Europe. Would be retarded to not have him watched).

Pretty much.

A good thing is that the Italians have already weakened the aristocracy, but they'll still fight back. They are still the large landowners, and have a strong influence. And most of them have never really liked Haile Selassie. If the Italians hadn't attacked he would probably have been deposed sometime in the late 30s.

One of the reasons I selected post-liberation was the Italian weakening of the aristocracy. Their the biggest roadblock to Ethiopia's development and deserve a share of the blame for the rise of the Derg. And they will fight back, although the first coup attempt has been averted by Iyasu's very convenient dying.

The appointed nobility is easier to control, since they owe their fortune to the emperor, however they can be much more ruthless. It was no secret that they robbed the provinces under their control bare, and usually took the treasury with them when they were dismissed from their posts. They didn't have huge lands to fall back on, but usually just used their power to get as much money out of it as possible. Before the slave trade collapsed due to the Italian invasion, many of them were deeply involved in it.

All depends on how things are played, although their tendency to take everything, bolted down or not, will not be abated. We'll see how the public and the government will deal with it.

Dealing with both the hereditary nobility who want to protect their old rights and their land and the appointed nobility who just want to gain as much as possible from their position will be a challenge. While Mengistu was one of Africa's worst leaders ever, it was really no surprise the empire fell. So much injustice, and so little the government could do about it.

Well, there's is more the government could have done about, especially when land reform became a popular issue in the 1960s. At least, the Emperor could have tried to do something about it. But by that point, Haile Selassie was starting to show signs of megalomania, or at least an inflated ego (Haile Selassie I University, Haile Selassie I Airport, being really involved with building the OAU, etc.) and seemed to care little for what the student protests and peasant protests wanted. Combine that with tax reforms that are pissing off the peasants to no end, waning American interest in the region & falling financial support, add in some famines, and the perfect storm was set up for revolution by 1974.

Of course, the entire PoD is that Haile Selassie actually wants to make substantive changes to Ethiopia post liberation, that it becomes his primary mission. How successful he can be is another question ;).
 
This is definitely interesting. I only wonder for now is what the effects on Rastafarianism will be, and if Robeson will be only the first of many pan-Africanists to emigrate to Ethiopia.
 
I guess the growing ethnic tensions between the Amharas and the Tigre versus the Oromos and the southern groups would have to be addressed too. Of course this often went hand in hand with the question of land.
 
This is definitely interesting. I only wonder for now is what the effects on Rastafarianism will be, and if Robeson will be only the first of many pan-Africanists to emigrate to Ethiopia.

I have ideas for Rastafarianism. As for other Pan-Africanists... we'll see.

I guess the growing ethnic tensions between the Amharas and the Tigre versus the Oromos and the southern groups would have to be addressed too. Of course this often went hand in hand with the question of land.

Ethnic tensions will be coming to a boil fairly soon, especially if land reform becomes an issue.
 
Anywho, here's the next part. I warned you it's a little rough.


The Early Cold War, 1946-1949

1946
January: The Central Intelligence Group (later CIA) founded.

Albania falls to the Communists in a coup.

March: France declares the "Autonomous Republic of Cochinchina," covering the southern third of Vietnam. Relations with North Vietnam cool, and the Indochinese Wars begin as France moves in to protect Cochinchina.

Syria is recognized as independent from France.

The Kingdom of Transjordan is founded.

April: Greece reestablishes the monarchy.

North Vietnam is declared a one-party communist state.

The Chinese Civil War intensifies.

May: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development is founded (later the World Bank).

The Greek Civil War begins, as the Communists begin fighting against government forces.

The Emperor announces a reshuffling of his cabinet and the associated ministries in his government. The new, consolidated ministries include: the Ministry of War, the Ministry of Agriculture and Water, the Ministry of Justice, and the Ministry of Transportation and Electricity. The posts of Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Tsehafi Tezaz (Minister of the Pen) also remained important positions. This consolidation and reshuffling allowed the Emperor to send away more untrustworthy elements of the court while further consolidating his hold on the central government.

The Premiership was given Leul Ras Imru Haile Selassie, the Emperor's cousin and a man with similar pro-reform views. The Deputy Premiership went to Walda-Giyorgis Walda-Yohannes, a Mekwanint who previously served as Minister of the Pen from 1941-1945. The Tsehafi Tezaz went to the relatively unknown Abebe Aregai, a former resistance fighter and officer in the Kebur Zabanga. This new cabinet was tilted much more strongly in favor of reform and modernization than the Emperor's War Cabinet from 1941-1945.

June: The Warner Robins Lynching. A middle class white family is brutally murdered in Warner Robins, Georgia. The case is poorly handled and a local African-American vagabond is arrested in the immediate aftermath of the crime, but is later released as other evidence points the father's mentally unstable brother (i.e., both fairly unique bloody murder weapons are found in the brother's apartment). Following the release of the vagabond, local racist groups round up a total of seven African American men and hang them from a tree. The crime, occurring so close to a federal facility (Warner Robins Air Force Base) and the shoddy police work when handling the case makes the issue one with national attention.

In the aftermath of the Warner Robins Lynching, Paul Robeson and Emperor Haile Selassie will reiterate Ethiopia's offer to take in American immigrants. About 15,000 people, mostly African American, will immigrate to Ethiopia in 1946, with another 35,000 immigrating by the end of the decade [1]. Almost all settle in and around Addis Ababa, the most developed city in Ethiopia.

July: Tensions between Arabs and Jews in Palestine begin to rise as attacks and retribution begins to make its rise.

After Prime Minister Attlee promises independence to India "following the ratification of a constitution; tensions between Muslims and Hindus rise.

The First Indochinese War begins as France sends forces to support Cochinchina.

September:
Communists seize power in Romania and Bulgaria.

Paul Robeson's passport is revoked based on alleged communist links and several off-the-cuff remarks made by Robeson that basically admire Stalin. Robeson will continue speaking out in favor of African-American immigration to Ethiopia "until such time as the government recognizes that 'separate but equal,' is neither separate nor equal!" Robeson's pro-Ethiopia rhetoric will cool down over the next a few years as Ethiopia becomes unabashedly anti-communist.

October:
Siam joins the United Nations.

Ethiopian Air Lines begins operation as the rainy season concludes, with flights to a half-dozen cities in Africa, including Cairo, Nairobi, and Durban. The Airline uses a half-dozen ex-military C-47s, with some converted for passenger flight.

November:
Emperor Haile Selassie offers to send the Kangew Regiment to China to support the Kuomintang in their fight against the Communists. President Chiang Kai-Shek declines the offer.

December:
The United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) is founded.

The International Labor Organization becomes part of the United Nations system.

1947
January:
Communists take power in Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.

February:
Emperor Haile Selassie makes a state visit to Washington, D.C., in part to discuss the spread of communism in Eastern Europe. He proposes that Ethiopia could help form a "base" for further containing communism, since its spread to Africa is as inevitable as its spread to Asia. President Truman considers the offer.

The International Civil Aviation Organization begins operating.

March:
The Truman Doctrine is promulgated.

Emperor Haile Selassie announces that Ethiopia shall only recognize the Greek monarchy as the legitimate government of Greece.

April:
James L. Farmer, Jr., a notable civil rights figure, has become enraptured by the Pan-African movement and immigrates to Ethiopia, taking up residence in Addis Ababa.

July:
Voice of America begins broadcasting in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union.

President Truman makes US$ 400 million available to Greece and Turkey after signing a bill that begins implementing the Truman Doctrine.

After the British deny a ship carrying 4500 Shoah survivors the right to dock in Jaffa, Emperor Haile Selassie offers land for them to relocate. The ship will dock in Masawa, Eritrea and the Jews will settle near Addis Ababa. As word spreads among displaced Jews about their royal welcome in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa begins to become a minor magnet for Jewish immigration.

August:
India and Pakistan split into two separate countries. Pakistan becomes a UN member state.

After a falling out with President Truman, General Douglas MacArthur elects to resign rather than be "reassigned" by Truman. He later becomes heavily involved with the New York Republican Party. General Matthew Ridgeway becomes the Military Governor of Japan.

September:
An initial aid package of US$ 7 million is granted to Ethiopia; US$ 2.5 million is to be used for military purposes and US$ 5 million are earmarked for the development of civilian infrastructure. Emperor Haile Selassie announces plans that the money shall go to damming up many of Ethiopia's rivers "to reduce the risk of famine and drought," and to improving Ethiopia's meager rail network. Among Ethiopia's first purchases with its military aid are discounted North American P-51D Mustangs, Republic P-47 Thunderbolts, M4 Shermans, M3 Half-Tracks, and other equipment necessary for a modern military [2].

October:
The Ogaden territory is formally recognized as part of Ethiopia proper by the United Nations.

The Kebur Zabanga now stands at 6 battalions, with most of that from the Kagnew Regiment. American advisers and trainers are brought to train the newly formed Royal (Ethiopian) Air Force and begin assisting the development of a fully modern Ethiopian Army. Emperor Haile Selassie, relying heavily on American aid, announces conscription to bring this number to 10 battalions. The Kebur Zabanga will also be reorganized into 2 regiments of 5 battalions of 1000 men each. Some of his subjects openly worry at the growing size of the Emperor's bodyguards.

November:
The United Nations votes to partition Palestine into a Jewish and an Arab state. The plan is rejected unanimously by Arab states.

December:
The International Telecommunications Union and International Postal Union become organs of the United Nations.

The small number of Jewish immigrants to Ethiopia begin create Kibbutzim in Ethiopia.

1948
January:
The civil war in the Palestinian Mandate becomes increasingly violent as fighting between Jewish and Arab forces intensifies.

February:
The Netherlands announces its intent to withdraw from the East Indies "in the near future." Talks begin between the Dutch and Sukutro's forces.

The Treaty of Brussels is signed between the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, and France for a collective security arrangement. This treaty lays the foundation for future defense and economic agreements.

The 1948 Winter Olympic Games are held in St. Moritz, Switzerland, the first Olympic games since the outbreak of the Second World War. Ethiopia does not participate in the games.

March:
President Truman signs the Marshall Plan, authorizing US$ 5 billion in funds for the war ravaged countries in Europe in 1948. A smaller bill authorizes US$ 10 million in funds to be disbursed to Ethiopia, which in turn is used to begin damming up the Blue Nile and other major rivers in Ethiopia.

The World Health Organization is formed as a body of the United Nations.

April:
The Organization of American States is founded in Washington, D.C.

The First Indo-Pakistani War breaks out as Indian troops move on Pakistani positions in response to a massacre of Hindus in Pakistan.

The Organization for European Economic Cooperation (later the OECD) is established in Brussels, Belgium.

May:
The independent nation of Israel is declared on May 14, and the Israeli War of Independence begins on the 15th as neighboring Arab countries invade Israel.

Ethiopia is the second nation in the world to recognize the independence of Israel on May 16, the first being the United States (May 14), after Emperor Haile Selassie promulgates a declaration. This declaration wins the admiration of Ethiopia's small Jewish community (both immigrants and members of the Bete Israel community) and isolates the areas Muslim populations (who are concentrated in the Eritrea, Wello, Tigray, Hararghe, and Bale provinces).

In the British Gold Coast, a riot breaks out in Accra. Ex-service members demanded pensions and pay promised for their service in the Second World War, and the otherwise peaceful riot was broken up by police, leaving twelve dead. This sparked further protests, which soon turned into a riot. After the riot, the local governor general promised further reforms, which the English parliament agreed to later that year. The Gold Coast parliament is given significant autonomy and elections are scheduled for 1951.

June:
The National Party of South Africa is swept into power in South Africa, ushering in the policy of Apartheid in South Africa.

A communist uprising topples the government in Malaya and the People's Democratic Republic of Malaya is declared; the British lead Australia, New Zealand, and anti-communist Malay troops land later that month in Singapore and begin fighting the loosely organized communist forces. The British will accept Emperor Haile Selassie's offer to send a regiment to support anti-communist fighters, which will be attached to the African soldiers the British send to Malaya [3].

June 21-26: Republican National Convention; the 1948 Republican National Convention will go down in political history as one of the most contentious in history. Two surprise candidacies split the primaries: former Governor Harold Stassen of Minnesota and retired General Douglas MacArthur of New York entered the ring and split the vote between Taft and Dewey. Gridlock ensued during the first three ballots, although Stassen folded after the third ballot and threw his support behind Dewey. Over the next several ballots, Taft's support dwindled and MacArthur, whose popularity proved immensely powerful, won the nomination by the end of the ninth ballot. MacArthur, after some deliberation, selects conservative Governor John W. Bricker of Ohio as his running mate.

July:
The Kagnew Regiment is sent to Malaya to support the anti-communist campaign. Many of the Kagnew Regiments officers were the same ones who served in the Second World War and personally witnessed the dangers of socialism and were highly attached to the cause of containing communism [4]. Equipped with cast-off American equipment, the Kagnew is the best trained and most well equipped force the Ethiopians have.

The Summer Olympics are held in London. Ethiopia does not participate.

Soviet soldiers completely withdraw from North Korea.

July 12-14: President Harry Truman becomes the Democratic nominee for President, and he selects Senator Alben Barkley as his running mate.

August:
The Russians begin blockading Berlin. President Truman organizes an airlift to keep Berlin supplied during the Blockade.

September:
The Republic of Korea is established in the American-occupied portion of Korea. Two weeks later, the Democratic Republic of Korea is proclaimed in the Soviet-occupied portion of Korea.

October:
The United Nations adopts the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

November:
President Truman is reelected as President of the United States, defeating Republican Thomas Dewey and State's Rights Democrat (Dixiecrat) Strom Thurmond [5]. The 1948 Presidential Election goes down in history as a wasted oportunity for the Republicans. General MacArthur brought a wave of vitality to the campaign and hurt Truman's attempt to paint the legislature as a "do-nothing" congress. However, it was ultimately MacArthur's big mouth that got him into trouble; he was strongly in favor of interventionism to a degree most American's weren't willing to accept and his brash demeanor and political inexperience hurt him in late election debates. He ultimately lost previous Republican strongholds in the Northeast, but in the South the Republicans won their first states since the 1920s, with both Virginia and Tennessee voting slightly in favor of MacArthur's strong anti-communist rhetoric, the strongest of any candidate in the field.

The 1948 election was also the first election in which the State's Rights Democratic Party (alias Dixiecrats) won electoral votes. Entirely a Solid South Party, the Dixiecrat's main platform was the maintenance of segregation and Jim Crow laws in the South. Ridding on Truman's public support of Ethiopia, the Dixiecrats captured five states: Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The Dixiecrats stubbornly refused to fold after the election, fearing Truman's secret "Negro Obsession" with Ethiopia would further undermine the social system in the South.

AAtA_US_1948.PNG

President Harry S. Truman (D-MO) / Senator Alben W. Barkley (D-KY): 287 EV, 27 states
General Douglas MacArthur (R-NY) / Governor Thomas Herbert (R-OH): 197 EV, 16 states
Governor Strom Thurmond (SR-SC) / Governor Fielding Wright (SR-MI): 47 EV, 5 states

December:
The First Indo-Pakistani War ends as the UN brokers a cease-fire.

The anti-communist forces in Malaya capture Malacca from the communists.

The Israeli War of Independence ends, with an Israeli victory. Its borders are roughly OTL borders, including a divided Jerusalem and uncontested control of the Negev. Despite UN resolutions, Arab refugees are not allowed to return to Israel.

1949
January:
The anti-communist forces begin pushing north towards Kuala Lampur. The Kagnew Regiment, in conjunction with the Australian 3rd Division, succeeds in defeating a disorganized communist force numbering at least 20,000 on the outskirts of Malacca.

Israel holds its first parliamentary election. David Ben Gurion forms a government with the Mapai, United Religious Front, and Progressive Party.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is formed in Washington, D.C. Original members include Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

February:
The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon) is founded in Leningrad.

Beijing falls to Communist Chinese forces.

The Berlin Blockade ends.

Work begins on Ethiopia's first intercontinental airport in Addis Ababa. While Ethiopia has a functional airport at Addis Ababa, the Emperor wants to expand Ethiopian Air Lines service, which requires more extensive facilities than the current airport supports.

March:
The Federal Republic of Germany is established.

The Greek Communist forces are finally defeated, ending the Greek Civil War.

The last United States forces leave the Republic of Korea.

April:
The Battle of Kuala Lampur begins. The Kagnew Regiment is one of the first units to cross into the city. The city is captured by anti-communist forces later that month.

Communist Chinese forces take Nanking from Nationalist forces.

Israel is admitted to the United Nations, despite Arab protest.

May:
The Soviet Union detonates its first atomic bomb, ending the American monopoly on the weapon.

Emperor Haile Selassie I makes an impassioned plea before the General Assembly "... to end the production of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons; their indiscriminante nature leaves nothing but mass destruction and death in their wake." His plea will be partially answered by the formation of the IAEA a few months later.

June:
The Netherlands recognizes Indonesia as an independent state. Indonesia joins the United Nations two days later.

Responding to pressure from his immigrant subjects, the Emperor allows the capital city to have a democratically elected government. The first democratic election in Ethiopian history is held. James Farmer wins the mayor's seat as do a number of African American immigrants. Mayor Basha James Farmer pledges to focus on developing the infrastructure in Addis Ababa and increasing electrification and education in the city [6].

July:
Eritrea is recognized as under Ethiopian control. Emperor Haile Selassie will make a tour of the region, which has already made great strides in developing an autonomous government. During his talks with the regional leaders, he promises to respect Eritrea's autonomy and promises a new federal constitution in the near future. The visit bolsters the pro-union groups, but there remains a sizable independence faction in the country which is increasingly vocal after the Emperor leaves.

August:
Chinese Communist forces take Guangzhou from the Nationalists. The Nationalists have been reduced to a few pockets in south China and Taiwan.

September:
The International Atomic Energy Agency is formed as an organ of the United Nations.

October:
Using funds from the United States, Ethiopia plans to upgrade its existing rail network between Djibouti, Dire Dawa, and Addis Ababa as well as expand the current rail network. The new 850 km of rail will link Addis Ababa with the port of Massawa in Eritrea, cutting through Debre Birhan, Dese, Maychew, Mekele, Asmara, and Massawa [7].

November:
Laborers working on Ethiopia's rail lines go on strike, demanding more pay and better hours. Despite strikes being viewed as a form of insurrections, the Emperor is wary of being viewed as unnecessarily harsh [8]. He agrees to hear the workers’ demands. After talking with the labor leaders, the Emperor agrees to increase their pay by 20% and give them three extra days off a month. However, he will tolerate no further strikes until his first round of "infrastructure improvements," (financed by American aid) are completed in 1955. The labor leaders agree to his offer; it's less than they wanted (30% more pay and four more days off a month), but no one wants to see a confrontation yet.

December:
The last Nationalist forces in south China fall; the de facto end of the Chinese Civil War.

Emperor Haile Selassie announces that Ethiopia will not recognize the People's Republic of China as the legitimate government of China.

Watching the blossoming Kibbutzim movement around Addis Ababa, Emperor Haile Selassie, against the advice of the Crown Council, sees an opportunity to further reform land ownership in Ethiopia and weaken the power of the Mesafint. He proposes the creation of "Royal Kibbutz" around Ethiopia, with relatively novel legal constructs. The Royal Kibbutzim (hereafter referred to as Kibbutzim) would function as a quasi-corporate body, complete with a royal charter and eligibility for preferential loans from the National Bank of Ethiopia for the purchase of various types of capital, such as tractors or fertilizer. However, the Kibbutzim could not own land; instead, individual peasants would own the land and would "lease" a certain portion of their crops back to the Kibbutzim to be taken as tax. Members of the Kibbutzim would be exempt from most traditional taxes, including geber (roughly, tribute owed to the nobles), but the Kibbutzim would (in most cases) still owe their tithes to the Ethiopian Church. This move greatly angers the Mesafint, but also proves enormously popular with the northern peasantry (and somewhat less popular with the southern peasantry) [A]. The new, relatively low rate of taxation further popularizes the Kibbutzim among the peasantry, although the Mesafint and, to a lesser extent, the Mekwanint are grumbling with increased annoyance [9].

===============
[1]- Overall, this is slightly less than 0.15% of the African American population at this point, something I don't think is that unreasonable with more publicity for Ethiopia. It's hardly a mad rush, really.
[2]- The discount is as much as 95% off list price. Most consider this Truman's response to Haile Selassie's offer.
[3]- The Attlee government sees using the Kagnew Regiment as a propaganda tool in the colonies, showing independent black Africans fighting against communism. Whether or not it's successful as such is another story.
[4]- The Emperor personally played up the socialism aspect of national socialism, for better or worse. It serves his purposes fairly well, although there are some among Ethiopia's (and else where’s) intelligentsia who are a little peeved by the comparison (and rightfully so, I might add).
[5]- The Dixiecrats do a little better because Truman's backing of Ethiopia was played up fairly strongly in the "strong South," and it cost him a few electoral votes.
[6]- The bestowing of the title Basha is a political ploy to show the Emperor's openness to the immigrant community which is increasingly a part of Addis Ababa.
[7]- Despite the large amount of aid coming in, Ethiopia lacks much in the way of a logistical infrastructure; while the new rail lines are meant to alleviate these problems, it swill be a while before Ethiopia can really having anything resembling modern national infrastructure. Plus, the Djibouti-Addis Ababa railway was not the best-maintained infrastructure in the world, and it's better to link Asmara to Ethiopia then be dependent on the French for shipping supplies.
[8]- Part of the problem is the fact that the Kagnew Regiment, his best and most loyal soldiers, are busy fighting in Malaya, so he's worried about being needlessly harsh. That, and there numerous immigrants working on building the rail; the Empire is very much dependent on their knowledge, which makes the Emperor much more lenient than he'd otherwise be.
[9]- Taxation is lower than OTL at this point because of greater US aid which forms a significant part of the imperial budget.

[A]- Little bit of background: Emperor Menelik II's conquests to the south and east basically set up the conditions for extensive tenanting/sharecropping in the south, as rich northerners could slowly but steadily take up the land once owned by Oromo and other ethnic groups that did not readily submit to Menelik's rule. By the 1940s/1950s, a substantial portion of the privately "held" land in southern Ethiopia was owned by nobles and the land was worked by tenants (land ownership in Africa is a wonderfully fascinating topic, at least to me). The actual dynamics behind Ethiopia's traditional land ownership system is somewhat complicated, but, at its core is a feudal, clan-based system. Since I doubt most want a multi-page exposition on land ownership that'll draw heavily from a few books I'm rereading, I'll direct people to two books that'll help explain things in much better detail than I can:

Africa and Africans by Paul Bohannan and Phillip Curtain - gives a pretty nice, broad overview of traditional family-based land ownership/tenanting relations for Africa, among many other things.

A History of Ethiopia, 1855-1991 by Bahru Zewde - gives a more specific, Ethiopia-centric view of land ownership, kinship, geber, and the rest.

- The Kibbutzim are not actual Kibbutzim, but more like joint-stock companies, really. But it's a step forward from the traditional methods of thinking about land and agriculture. We'll see how successful the joint stock concept is...


AAtA_US_1948.PNG
 
So he makes his move against the traditional land owners in the north. But what to do about the South? Support the soldier landowners considered invaders, or the peasants whose loyalty already is low? Of course in the south there is an ethnic dimension too. At least the Gabbar system was abolished after WW2 (officially, unofficially it was business as usual).

Will Eritrean nationalism be as much a bitch as OTL?
 
So he makes his move against the traditional land owners in the north. But what to do about the South? Support the soldier landowners considered invaders, or the peasants whose loyalty already is low? Of course in the south there is an ethnic dimension too. At least the Gabbar system was abolished after WW2 (officially, unofficially it was business as usual).

Both the South and the North will be featured in the next part, as well as the ethnic dimension to the problems in the South. A fair bit of the land in the South is owned by the Mesafint; absentee landlordism was fairly common as time went on in the South, to the tune of 40-60% of arable land being owned by nobles, although this varied a great deal province to province.

If anything, the Kibbutz is a two fold threat: an economic threat in the north where traditional power structures reign (a formal end to the gabar with the necessary political protections to finally kill it), and a political threat in the South, where the Kibbutz could produce images of an idyllic lifestyle for those poor Oromo sharecroppers if they could but own their own land (immigrant Jewish Kibbutzim function pretty well for that purpose). So it's liable to piss off all the nobles, ultimately, but it depends on who's getting hurt more quickly: the northerners or the southerners?

Will Eritrean nationalism be as much a bitch as OTL?

Eritrean nationalism will be taking a very different tack, especially after the revised constitution is promulgated. Let's just say that Eritrea will be rather divided in its loyalties under the new constitution.
 
Interesting update.
Minor correction: the first sentence of the November 1948 entry refers to the Republican candidate as Dewey, not MacArthur.

By intercontinental, do you mean service to the Mideast (especially Israel), India, to Europe, or to America? And is Ethiopian Airlines going to be picking up a couple Lockheed Constellations for intercontinental routes? That would be a nice sign of Ethiopian modernity... but rather expensive.
One other idea - could Ethiopian Airlines have lent a few Skytrains to the Berlin Airlift?
 
Interesting update.
Minor correction: the first sentence of the November 1948 entry refers to the Republican candidate as Dewey, not MacArthur.

Errr.... Crap, thought I had fixed that :eek:. *faint sounds of cursing in the background*

By intercontinental, do you mean service to the Mideast (especially Israel), India, to Europe, or to America? And is Ethiopian Airlines going to be picking up a couple Lockheed Constellations for intercontinental routes? That would be a nice sign of Ethiopian modernity... but rather expensive.
One other idea - could Ethiopian Airlines have lent a few Skytrains to the Berlin Airlift?

The US gives them a few more C-47s to use, with more ex-US military aircraft coming down the pipe. Service in Addis Ababa expands to cover more stops in the Middle East and Africa, especially for cargo; Addis Ababa is nicely positioned to service quite a few major locations, if it was properly developed as a hub.

Once again, you've outdone yourself Hunam. I look forward to seeing how you plan to save Ethiopia!

Well thanks. I do enjoy writing this one, even if the update schedule doesn't make it seem like that :eek:.

------
Anyway, here's the productivity update:

I've been pretty involved with the 51st State the last month or so, but I'm almost finished with Chapter 7 of that one, which is my "preset stop point" to review things and outline the story in more detail. Ironically, the 51st State has been so easy to write the last month that I have done very little with Abyssinia Avoids the Abyss :rolleyes:. But, now that I am in possession of very much free time in the short term, I can wrap up the next chapter of 51st State in the next couple of days and then I'll turn back to this one and finally finish writing the next couple of chapters; plan is to get through the 1960s by the end of December, so we'll see. Hopefully, AAA will get as fertile a writing period as 51st State did :).

Sorry to keep all those waiting who really looked forward to this timeline. To quote rob, "My timeline's don't die; they just take long naps." Oddly, the last month has been the longest I've ever written anything without any major speed-bumps in the creative process; go figure :). Anyway, thanks for your patience people and I hope I can have a chapter or three up before (or during!) the holidays for you to enjoy.
 
Top