Could Kennedy Avoid Assassination?

oshron

oshron

this is kinda important to me since i need to figure this out in order for me to keep going with my ATL. im certain that theres been more than one thread on this very subject before, but im lazy so im just gonna post a new one :D

anyway, what are the minimum differences that can be made within reason to OTL in order for kennedy to not be assassinated? for the sake of this discussion, lets not focus on there being some environmental difference to that particular day (for example, Oswald just happening to miss) and lets avoid conspiracy theories. basically, what would need to happen in order for oswald to not decide to kill JFK?
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

Kennedy could duck on the second bullet.
Oswald could miss with the second bullet.
The driver could manage to speed off before the second bullet could hit Kennedy.
Kennedy could not announce the parade route, and thus Oswald would not be able to plan to kill Kennedy.
Oswald could manage to kill General Walker, thus not feeling the need to kill Kennedy.
Oswald could be caught and arrested for trying to kill General Walker, thus being in jail and not able to kill Kennedy.
 
Cook

Cook

Banned
Emperor Norton I said:
Kennedy could duck on the second bullet.
Click to expand...
No, he couldn’t.

Kennedy was wearing a back brace that kept him rigidly upright, even after half his head had been blown off. The was no way for him to duck.
Emperor Norton I said:
The driver could manage to speed off before the second bullet could hit Kennedy.
Click to expand...
The limousine was travelling at a brisk walking pace. When the driver realised that they were being fired at he accelerated and one of the security detail was still able to jump off the side of the following limo, run forward, and climb onto the rear of the president’s car. These were standard early 1960’s limousines built for luxury and a smooth ride, not for security and rapid acceleration; even had the driver floored it after the very first shot the car could not respond quickly enough to make the shot significantly difficult.
Emperor Norton I said:
Kennedy could not announce the parade route, and thus Oswald would not be able to plan to kill Kennedy.
Click to expand...
Not much point going to a city to boost your popularity if you make it impossible for people to see you.

It’s worth noting that Kennedy is the only politician to have been killed by a sniper from a distance. Until then the threat was seen as someone stepping forward from the side of the road and firing a pistol.
 
Last edited:

Lord Grattan

Top up on the limo.
Could JFK have decided, for whatever reason, not to wear his backbrace? I have no idea how essential/necessary his backbrace was.
 
RogueBeaver

RogueBeaver

Have the Secret Service ignore JFK's request and ship a closed limousine to Dallas. Problem solved. You can't accelerate quickly enough, can't duck, and there is no emergency release on the back brace.
 
oshron

oshron

my question was mainly what changes OUTSIDE of the actual environment of that day in dallas could result in kennedy's assassination being butterflied away

as a second question, what does everyone think would happen considering that kennedy would (presumably) live to see the end of his term and possibly be re-elected?
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

Cook said:
No, he couldn’t.

Kennedy was wearing a back brace that kept him rigidly upright, even after half his head had been blown off. The was no way for him to duck.
Click to expand...

I know that. I should have probably been more specific to mention the back brace needing to be off.

The limousine was travelling at a brisk walking pace. When the driver realised that they were being fired at he accelerated and one of the security detail was still able to jump off the side of the following limo, run forward, and climb onto the rear of the president’s car. These were standard early 1960’s limousines built for luxury and a smooth ride, not for security and rapid acceleration; even had the driver floored it after the very first shot the car could not respond quickly enough to make the shot significantly difficult.
Click to expand...
I know that also. But had the instinct to drive off hit the driver just a bit sooner after that first bullet that hit struck Kennedy and the governor, the bullet would have had a better chance of missing Kenendy.

And would the car really be that slow to respond? The 1961 Lincoln Continental had an acceleration of 0-60 MPH in 9.8s/ 0-100 kmPh in 10.4s, with a top speed of 195 km/h (121 mph).

Not much point going to a city to boost your popularity if you make it impossible for people to see you.
Click to expand...
It wouldn't have been impossible. And, likewise, the motorcade was not the main point of the trip. Kennedy was on his way to a luncheon to try to unite the Texas Democrats who were infighting at the time. People would have the ability to still see their President since they know the general route from the Hotel to that Luncheon. Just not the specifics. The motorcade route (which was actually rerouted to go where it did) was to go right by where Oswald worked. Oswald saw that, and saw his chance.

It’s worth noting that Kennedy is the only politician to have been killed by a sniper from a distance. Until then the threat was seen as someone stepping forward from the side of the road and firing a pistol.
Click to expand...
I wanted to bring up an interesting thought. Say Kennedy makes it to the Luncheon and Oswald doesn't manage to snipe anyone or try to snipe anyone. Could he take the pistol he used to kill Officer Tippet in the OTL and shoot Kennedy at the Luncheon?
 
RogueBeaver

RogueBeaver

Emperor Norton I said:
I know that. I should have probably been more specific to mention the back brace needing to be off.


I know that also. But had the instinct to drive off hit the driver just a bit sooner after that first bullet that hit struck Kennedy and the governor, the bullet would have had a better chance of missing Kenendy.

And would the car really be that slow to respond? The 1961 Lincoln Continental had an acceleration of 0-60 MPH in 9.8s/ 0-100 kmPh in 10.4s, with a top speed of 195 km/h (121 mph).


It wouldn't have been impossible. And, likewise, the motorcade was not the main point of the trip. Kennedy was on his way to a luncheon to try to unite the Texas Democrats who were infighting at the time. People would have the ability to still see their President since they know the general route from the Hotel to that Luncheon. Just not the specifics. The motorcade route (which was actually rerouted to go where it did) was to go right by where Oswald worked. Oswald saw that, and saw his chance.



I wanted to bring up an interesting thought. Say Kennedy makes it to the Luncheon and Oswald doesn't manage to snipe anyone or try to snipe anyone. Could he take the pistol he used to kill Officer Tippet in the OTL and shoot Kennedy at the Luncheon?
Click to expand...

How would Oswald get into the dinner? It was invitation only for big donors. He'd have to take a staffer hostage, swap clothes, enter the hall... hard to do without being noticed.
 

Alex1guy

my question was mainly what changes OUTSIDE of the actual environment of that day in dallas could result in kennedy's assassination being butterflied away
Click to expand...

Where do you want to start? Oswald shot himself at some point according to Wikipedia, I don't know maybe he died from blood loss? That's rather obscure.
 

John Fredrick Parker

Donor
I like the idea of Oswald missing the second shot most, with the first shot happening as OTL -- that way, the months following give Kennedy and his agenda the same (or very similar) waves of public sympathy and support.

The big question then is how -- do you go with Oswald just missing, the car accelerating sooner, maybe Jack falls between the seats, or maybe a soft breeze blows*?

*though that would be against the OP

EDIT ADD: Wait, wasn't Kennedy wounded by two shots, where the second one was fatal?
 
Last edited:
oshron

oshron

hmm...lets say that oswald misses the first shot like IOTL and the car accelerates, causing the second bullet to miss. alternatively, the second bullet hits kennedy but isnt fatal--maybe it hits his shoulder or something, or even grazes his neck. oswald is caught (im honestly not sure what his fate would be at that point) and kennedy recovers with sympathy votes as well as his OTL popularity

mainly what i want to figure out now is what the effects of a continued kennedy presidency would be. in my ATL, i decided to make it so that kennedy still dies in office, but because of an injury sustained in a fall in 1966 related to his OTL back problems. that aside, though, what could his continued presidency be like?
 
Emperor Norton I

Emperor Norton I

I went with the route of having hte car speed off sooner so that the bullet hit the back of the car for the Timeline I had going. I hope to get back to that Timeline as soon as possible. I have some reading to do first, and I have to finish my current timeline.

You could probably find a few sources on Kennedy continuing his presidency. If you promise not to steal what I'll say about what he would have done, I will say them:

Detente with Soviets, Normalizing relations with Cuba, possibly neutralizing of Cuba and Vietnam between the US and USSR, withdrawal from Vietnam of advisers by 1965 at the earliest and 1968 at the latest. Better foreign policy overall, as LBJ was not good in that area. No joint Soviet-American moon landing; people like to make believe it would happen because JFK said it'd be a good idea. Really, he may just have been using that as political theatre knowing the Soviet leadership could not accept it and thus making them look bad and the US look friendly. And even if he did mean it, the Congress passed a bill which stated that if the US worked jointly with the Soviets in space, Congress would remove all funding for NASA. Domestically, things probably stay the course save for the more disreputable elements. No Vietnam means only the Flower Power Hippies and no, or very, very few militants. Sideburns still come into style, Psychedelic is in vogue, and America unpuckers its collective butthole and grows its hair and starts to let mom out of the kitchen and Beaver starts smoking pot. Imagine JFK with sideburns, and maybe even a post-Presidency funkadelic beard. It's a wonderful thought. Civil Rights probably continues on schedule and in similar form. The Congress was already on course with that. Medicare and Medicaid is debatable since LBJ did a good deal of politicking to get those through with the Right Wingers saying it'd end freedom and all that. Economy does better without Vietnam sucking it dry.
 
oshron

oshron

well you dont have to worry about me stealing much, if anything from your ATL :D mine is ASB (controlled butterflies) so the soviet union and vietnam war dont exist at all in my ATL. i probably wont even have oswald as JFK's attempted assassin and instead reassign that role to a fictional character.
 

Archibald

Banned
My favourite "Kennedy avoid bullets" scenario

Lee Harvey Oswald actually worked at the Texas school book depository - and, incidentally, fired at Kennedy from the building sixth stage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_School_Book_Depository

Now Oswald had plenty of colleagues working there, notably Bonnie Ray Williams.
Incredibly, that fateful day, William ate his lunch on the sixth floor, leaving at 12.20 to see the motorcade. He and two colleagues watched the motorcade from the FIFTH floor and actually heard Oswald rifle above their heads.
Now most of Oswald colleagues planned to watch the motorcade from the very sixth floor (!), but the group finally split in two halves - some guys on the fourth floor, others went outside.

Can you figure Oswald face had a group of his colleagues invaded the sixth floor as he prepared to shot the president ? ;)

Why did you go to the sixth floor?
Mr. WILLIAMS. Well, at the time everybody was talking like they was going to watch from the sixth floor. I think Billy Lovelady said he wanted to watch from up there. And also my friend; this Spanish boy, by the name of Danny Arce, we had agreed at first to come back up to the sixth floor. So I thought everybody was going to be on the sixth floor.
Mr. BALL. Did anybody go back?
Mr. WILLIAMS. Nobody came back up. So I just left.
Click to expand...

http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/russ/jfkinfo3/exhibits/ce482.jpg

Oh, and Charles Givens actually forgot its jacket at the very stage from which Oswald was preparing to shot the president. He actually saw Oswald only minutes before the shooting.
Mr. BELIN. When did you see Lee Harvey Oswald next?
Mr. GIVENS. Next?
Mr. BELIN. Yes.
Mr. GIVENS. Well, it was about a quarter till 12, we were on our way downstairs, and we passed him, and he was standing at the gate on the fifth floor.
I came downstairs, and I discovered I left my cigarettes in my jacket pocket upstairs, and I took the elevator back upstairs to get my jacket with my cigarettes in it. When I got back upstairs, he was on the sixth floor in that vicinity, coming from that way.
Mr. BELIN. Coming from what way?
Mr. GIVENS. Toward the window up front where the shots were fired from.
Mr. BELIN. Just a second, where did you go? Where were you when you saw him on the sixth floor?
Mr. GIVENS. I had went and got my jacket and was on my way back to the elevator.
Click to expand...

So, if you really want JFK not killed, the best thing IMHO is having Oswald colleagues deciding to eat their luch, collectively, on the sixth floor, and watch the motorcade from there. Oswald would be disturbed...
 
Last edited:

Andrew Hudson

Kennedy could have accepted advice not to visit Dallas and risked any political consequences of not visiting Texas.

In an earlier stage the motorcycle cop could have beaten Oswald to the draw or apprehended Oswald
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Kennedy had already assassinated the leader of South Vietnam. LBJ largely continued his Vietnam policies. The Vietnam war still happens, but the exact outcome is butterflied away.

Kennedy was a far less skilled legislator than LBJ. He was not pushing the civil rights bill effectively or hard. The Civil rights act of 1964 does not pass or is a shadow of the one passed in our time line. This will butterfly away much of the 1960's civil rights movement.

Kennedy will be a one or two term president who is viewed as a below average leader. His failures at the Bay of Pigs will be judged much more harshly, and his decisions leading up to the Cuban missile crisis will be second guessed more.
 

mats

Banned
was there enough time between the shots for a secret service agent to jump in front of the president between the shots?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top