Explosion heard around the world... Or Elser succeeds

[Deckhand]

Originally Posted by abc123

Since Romanians are pretty in rush right now, Germany could send them Me 109 from LW operational units while later reequipping same squadrons with more modern types. And, naturally, charge Romanians more for doeing such favour to them.

They could get double paid for them. The first wave gets blown out of the sky and then they get to replace them, and most of the rest of the wrecked Romanian equipment after the war.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Deckhand

They could get double paid for them. The first wave gets blown out of the sky and then they get to replace them, and most of the rest of the wrecked Romanian equipment after the war.

Yep. And they get eternal gratitude of Romanians for help in hour of need.
Win-win situation for Germans.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Well, at this point IMO we can safely assume that the Little Entente system is dead and buried, and Britain/France have largely disengaged from Central and Eastern Europe.

As long as Germany establishes its sphere of influence in the region by economic-diplomatic means or providing strategic protection against Soviet onslaught, the Western powers are not going to care overmuch.

It is done by 'acceptable' means and does not put the security of Britain and France to a serious risk; if anything, German power is gainfully harnessed to keep the Bear at bay. That much was implied in the appeasement strategy, which is vindicated ITTL.

Yes, but I'm not sure that Entente ( especially France ) can allow that she remains without friends east of Rhine...
That's diplomatic catastrophe for France, not vindication of appeasment.

[Deckhand]

Originally Posted by abc123

IMO direct armed help for Romania is ITTL a MUST BE thing for France and UK. because Romania was important member of Little Entente. With Poland defeated and reduced, Czechoslovakia dismembered, only Romania and Yugoslavia are still there as countries that could be considered as allies of UK/France. And now leawing even them in hour of need, and letting GERMANY to help/save them- it's foreign policy suicide for UK and France...
Or they can say that they give whole Central and Southeastern Europe to Germany..

The little Entente died at Munich. The whole point was to encircle Germany and preserve the ToV order. It is now gone. Having sold the Polish down the river, they won't be too enthusiastic about Romania.

France won't intervene unless Britain does, and the breakup of Molotov-Ribbentrop would suit Chamberlain perfectly. Having Germany and the Soviets hostile is a great way to keep the west out of any entanglements, especially if Germany gets to do all the dying against the Communists.

Enforce the peace conditions, so germany is hobbled, and let them guard the bogeyman of Russia. A nice guard dog chained to his house so he can't go too far seems right in line with western thinking.

[Deckhand]

Originally Posted by abc123

Yep. And they get eternal gratitude of Romanians for help in hour of need.
Win-win situation for Germans.

As long as you aren't one of the German trainers sent with the planes it is. Oh well, Oak leaves and swords posthumously is always nice. :-)

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Deckhand

The little Entente died at Munich. The whole point was to encircle Germany and preserve the ToV order. It is now gone. Having sold the Polish down the river, they won't be too enthusiastic about Romania.

France won't intervene unless Britain does, and the breakup of Molotov-Ribbentrop would suit Chamberlain perfectly. Having Germany and the Soviets hostile is a great way to keep the west out of any entanglements, especially if Germany gets to do all the dying against the Communists.

Enforce the peace conditions, so germany is hobbled, and let them guard the bogeyman of Russia. A nice guard dog chained to his house so he can't go too far seems right in line with western thinking.

More or less yes. Of course, the Entente powers must still ensure that the Soviets do not threaten to overrun Germany itself or the Near/Middle East, because in that case their own security would be at a dire risk, well beyond the issue of who gets to be the regional hegemon of Eastern Europe.

[KACKO]

Actually Slovakia can supply something too. Bunch of Czechoslovak tanks, aircrafts, artillery and others (older and newer) in warehouses can be sold to Romania and new equipment bought in Germany. It would help all 3 parties. Romanians would get weapons, Slovaks will make some money and buy new equipment in Germany which would make their Armed forces more compatible. I believe Romanians were using some Czechoslovak equipment anyway.
During WWII Slovakia and Romania cooperated as much as possible, or at least tried so.

[KACKO]

Originally Posted by Deckhand

The little Entente died at Munich. The whole point was to encircle Germany and preserve the ToV order.

Little Entente worked mostly against Hungary. As all 3 members had some border disputes with Hungarians. Romanians actually partially mobilized in March 1939 but as Slovakia declared independence and Prague agreed with Germans demands, there was no point for Romanians to oppose Hungarian occupation of Ruthenia.

[Hero of Canton]

With no Winter War I agree with the idea that the USSR still has a "high-falutin" opinion of its military prowess. However, they do have enormous numerical superiority, especially without the losses suffered in the OTL Winter War. Even with aid from Germany I cannot envision a Soviet defeat unless Britain and France honor their words.

I cannot wait to see what the West does in response.

Hero of Canton

[ccdsah]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

With no Winter War I agree with the idea that the USSR still has a "high-falutin" opinion of its military prowess. However, they do have enormous numerical superiority, especially without the losses suffered in the OTL Winter War. Even with aid from Germany I cannot envision a Soviet defeat unless Britain and France honor their words.

I cannot wait to see what the West does in response.

Hero of Canton

If Turkey is in the war and knowing Stalin wanted the Straits post WW2 in OTL I can see UK and France being worried about that fact too in this ATL

[Hörnla]

@abc123

Two thumbs up, I very much agree with your assessment As well As with the assignment of the Karpatenfuchs!

DRK, by the Way, already is the Deutsche Rote Kreuz, the German Red Cross.

@eurofed

We Shall See in the Next Updates. I agree, though, that if F/UK do Too Little in the Balkans, Berlin would Become the beacon for all governments in the Region. They wouldn't Even have to push Things.

I Wonder Even, how Long it Takes poland to re-adjust their policies. Wouldn't Cost the germans Too much to demonstrate some good-will ( Lifting Arms limitations if weapons bought in Germany, e.g.;cheap German loans for re-settled polish People but - in Reichsmark)

@Hero of canton

I agree. Although the romanians verengt that Bad, i doubt they can put up that much of the fanatic résistance the Finns displayed. The climate and Season do Not favour them. If turkey Fights the Soviets, the Kaukasus might Be a difficult Front where lessons will Be learnt the hard Way.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

With no Winter War I agree with the idea that the USSR still has a "high-falutin" opinion of its military prowess. However, they do have enormous numerical superiority, especially without the losses suffered in the OTL Winter War. Even with aid from Germany I cannot envision a Soviet defeat unless Britain and France honor their words.

I cannot wait to see what the West does in response.

Hero of Canton

Yes, I agree, Soviets simply have too big numerical superiority and even technological IMO. Also, April is great for armoured warfare in Romania...

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by abc123

Yes, I agree, Soviets simply have too big numerical superiority and even technological IMO. Also, April is great for armoured warfare in Romania...

I concur on both armor-based points, especially since the first T-34s were being deployed in 1940. They will make short work of the early Panzer IIIs if used well.

So we might have;

European Theater of Great War Round 2:

USSR vs Romania, Germany, Turkey, the British Royal Navy and Marines and the French Mediterranean Fleet.

Pacific Theater of Great War Round 2:

Empire of Japan vs. China, the U.S.A. Pacific Fleet, British RN, and the French Pacific Fleet.

What say you Shaby?

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

European Theater of Great War Round 2:

USSR vs Romania, Germany, Turkey, the British Royal Navy and Marines and the French Mediterranean Fleet.

If this came to pass, I'd call it Crimean War part II Empire strikes back.

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

Pacific Theater of Great War Round 2:

Empire of Japan vs. China, the U.S.A. Pacific Fleet, British RN, and the French Pacific Fleet.

The last samurai, really.

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

What say you Shaby?

Do you really want me to tell? All in good time my friends.

[KACKO]

Originally Posted by abc123

Also, April is great for armoured warfare in Romania...

I am not so sure. Winter 1939/40 was pretty strong. Second wave of cold and in late February. Winter was very snowy so with thaw April can be mess at Ukraine and eastern Romania.

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

European Theater of Great War Round 2:

USSR vs Romania, Germany, Turkey, the British Royal Navy and Marines and the French Mediterranean Fleet.

Depending in the circumstances (degree of F/UK Intervention, saviness of German diplomacy, Romanian readiness to make concessions resp. Despair), I'd like to add slovakia, yugoslavia, hungary, poland, Finnland and "volunteer Forces" from elsewhere.

But my bets are on a ceasefire After Stalin "liberates" bessarabia.

[Deckhand]

Originally Posted by Hörnla

Depending in the circumstances (degree of F/UK Intervention, saviness of German diplomacy, Romanian readiness to make concessions resp. Despair), I'd like to add slovakia, yugoslavia, hungary, poland, Finnland and "volunteer Forces" from elsewhere.

But my bets are on a ceasefire After Stalin "liberates" bessarabia.

Sounds right to me. Except for the Hungarians and Polish. Poland can and will do little, and i suppose Hungary might help if they get Trianon revisited, but seeing the Romanians beat down won't offend them too much. If Stalin is clever, he would support their claims on Transylvania.

After the peace euphoria, the west will do nothing but complain. All the hawks were kicked out both the French and British cabinets over peace with Germany. There is no one left to argue for intervention.

The 'peace in our time' crew is in charge, and they want Germany and the Soviets hostile and keeping each other in check.

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by Deckhand

...After the peace euphoria, the west will do nothing but complain. All the hawks were kicked out both the French and British cabinets over peace with Germany. There is no one left to argue for intervention.

The 'peace in our time' crew is in charge, and they want Germany and the Soviets hostile and keeping each other in check.

All it takes is one torpedo hitting a UK/French ship in the Black Sea. Please remember that before Kaiser Wilhelm II fired Bismarck it was Russia and not Germany that was seen as the British's Boogey Man in the Great Game. With the murder of the Romanovs by "the dirty commies" and the USSR trying to export revolution worldwide. If Herr Goering is VERY lucky the UK might get dragged in by "Soviet Perfidy".

Hero of Canton

[Deckhand]

Pretty sure all the red sub captains know the price for torpedoing the wrong ship, or any ship for that matter. The Romanian navy is virtually non existant, and naval support is completely irrelevant in the invasion of Bessarabia. The soviets are not going to start anything at sea, they don't need to. Frankly, all their ships on patrol can just wave and cosy up to anything British, for all the RN is going to actually do anything.

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by Deckhand

Sounds right to me. Except for the Hungarians and Polish. Poland can and will do little, and i suppose Hungary might help if they get Trianon revisited, but seeing the Romanians beat down won't offend them too much. If Stalin is clever, he would support their claims on Transylvania.

After the peace euphoria, the west will do nothing but complain. All the hawks were kicked out both the French and British cabinets over peace with Germany.

I agree in France and Britain unless the SU keeps on growing. Concerning hungary, i Wrote that it depends on concessions. Besides that, the hungarian Government will Be least keen on having a Red border.

Poland is far-fetched; but they have Not only been humiliated by Germany alone. And at least, the Red menace will help them get out off Arms-restrictions.