Explosion heard around the world... Or Elser succeeds

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

This shook the faith of the ruling elite, especially industrialists in wisdom of present course and they joined the moderate current gathered around the navy, giving Konoe an opportunity to propose Yonai take the mandate to form the new government. After Hata, not unexpectedly, refused the offer to forego his objections to the policy of moderation, position of minister of war was offered to Hideki Tojo, who accepted it. Zenga accepted to retain his position of navy minister. The new government was formed and the first act was to announce Japanese intention to start negotiations.

And the second act of the new government was to replace the pm and three other ministers, who had just been assassinated.


Seriously, merely floating the possibility of peace was enough to get you assassinated. Actually starting talks?

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

And the second act of the new government was to replace the pm and three other ministers, who had just been assassinated.


Seriously, merely floating the possibility of peace was enough to get you assassinated. Actually starting talks?

Yes, this is a real possibility...

[Deckhand]

Add to that the Western Powers including the USA. Business is Business. Plus Germany Stands against the Evil communists while Not being at war with others...

That is true, but the business interests in the other countries will want money, while Russia was content with barter and promises. And Germany is broke.

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

And the second act of the new government was to replace the pm and three other ministers, who had just been assassinated.

Seriously, merely floating the possibility of peace was enough to get you assassinated. Actually starting talks?

Be mindful, the military is split about the peace talks. The Navy is backing the moderates.

[Shaby]

Researching Japanese army officers for the purpose of writing previous update, I was totally (once more) amazed that not a single of the highest ranking general was described as a moderate. Those that were moderate, were suficiently disgraced (or dead) to have no chance of taking any position in the government. In the end I was compelled to choose Tojo.

Japanese did in fact enter some sort of negotiations with US even in OTL, though how much of it was simple smoke and mirrors is hard to deduce. At least some of them hoped that an agreement might result. Frankly, my opinion is that even if they managed to agree with US, somebody in China would commit some gekokuio and get them back into war. In conclusion, it is not beyond posibility for the hotheads in the army to tolerate the negotiations for the time being, IMHO.

[stubear1012]

As time permits, I would like to see an update on the Jewish immigration to the USA. In the original timeline, the US State Department unofficially did not fill all of the immigration quotes for Jews. I suspect that it will require followup to make sure that the State Department really does fill the quotes.

Stubear1012

[Eternity]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Be mindful, the military is split about the peace talks. The Navy is backing the moderates.

Keep in mind that Admiral Yamamoto was made Commander in Chief of the Combined Fleet in 1939 and sent to sea, so that his 'Army Guards' could not assissaniate him so easily as he opposed their plans, the alliance with Germany and did not wish for war against America.

IMHO The only reason he was still alive in 1941 to plan the Pearl Harbour attack was because of this. Had he stayed on land, he would have been killed by the army because of his opposition to them.

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by Deckhand

That is true, but the business interests in the other countries will want money, while Russia was content with barter and promises. And Germany is broke.

I agree, but still, it is easier for a Company to work from within a fiscally unreliable State than suffering that burden plus being Cut off the World market.
The Reich has basically been broke since 1914; that didn't hinder a good deal of its Economy from being competitive.

I agree, though, that war against the Soviet Union is Not much in Germany's interest (except if Swift victory is guaranteed - ha ha). Besides, Stalin should Be Quite useful As a bogeyman. Göring should IMHO follow These Four platforms in the 1940s:

1. Security
Create a viable forum to check continued Soviet Expansion and to defuse tensions in South-East-Europe. this might take Too Long to Safe bessarabia (bummer!) but it should Be desirable to get As Many Nations on Board As possible. Romania, slovakia, yugoslavia (guaranteeing its border with Italy), turkey, Finnland. Perhaps Greece and poland As well. All the while work diplomatically to have the benevolence of Paris and London on this defensive project.
Once Stalin Finds a Unified bloc in Central Europe which has no issues with the Western Powers, He will probably suspect a capitalist bloc up against him and Refrain from further disturbances and Play it Safe.

2. Ecenomic Sphere

Work towards As much free-Trade-Agreements As possible. Autarky is an Economic principle in national-socialism; but it is expansive, impossible without conquering the Soviet Union and doesn't fit Germany's economy. It Needs to Import and to Export freely to thrive Best. Any step towards that should Be desirable.

3. Cut costa

The Reich will continue Defizit-spending (similar to the New-deal-US), brought under Control. The end of war and of hastened re-armament will help a Lot. some welfare-Programmes will have to be cut back. Constitutional Reform should make Administration leaner, Party-Reform should professionalize its Ranks and Fight corruption. No "Germania", cool Infrastructure Projekts are only Done if they promise benefits down the line.

4. Raise competitiveness.

This is a Bit of hindsight, but the knack for Innovation shown during the war has to Be funneled into the Peace-Economy. Fight Brain-drain. Encourage effective production methods. Less friendiness towards Trusts and cartels. Reward high-qualiy Maß-productable innovations. Keep the promise on Car-ownership. Bring "Fernsehen".

If Europe remains peaceful, but war erupts in East Asia, Germany could

[Hörnla]

...Benefit from an analogue to the Korea-Effekt of OTL, One of the Main controbutors to the Wirtschaftswunder.

[cimon]

Originally Posted by Hörnla

I agree, but still, it is easier for a Company to work from within a fiscally unreliable State than suffering that burden plus being Cut off the World market.
The Reich has basically been broke since 1914; that didn't hinder a good deal of its Economy from being competitive.

I agree, though, that war against the Soviet Union is Not much in Germany's interest (except if Swift victory is guaranteed - ha ha). Besides, Stalin should Be Quite useful As a bogeyman. Göring should IMHO follow These Four platforms in the 1940s:

1. Security
Create a viable forum to check continued Soviet Expansion and to defuse tensions in South-East-Europe. this might take Too Long to Safe bessarabia (bummer!) but it should Be desirable to get As Many Nations on Board As possible. Romania, slovakia, yugoslavia (guaranteeing its border with Italy), turkey, Finnland. Perhaps Greece and poland As well. All the while work diplomatically to have the benevolence of Paris and London on this defensive project.
Once Stalin Finds a Unified bloc in Central Europe which has no issues with the Western Powers, He will probably suspect a capitalist bloc up against him and Refrain from further disturbances and Play it Safe.

2. Ecenomic Sphere

Work towards As much free-Trade-Agreements As possible. Autarky is an Economic principle in national-socialism; but it is expansive, impossible without conquering the Soviet Union and doesn't fit Germany's economy. It Needs to Import and to Export freely to thrive Best. Any step towards that should Be desirable.

3. Cut costa

The Reich will continue Defizit-spending (similar to the New-deal-US), brought under Control. The end of war and of hastened re-armament will help a Lot. some welfare-Programmes will have to be cut back. Constitutional Reform should make Administration leaner, Party-Reform should professionalize its Ranks and Fight corruption. No "Germania", cool Infrastructure Projekts are only Done if they promise benefits down the line.

4. Raise competitiveness.

This is a Bit of hindsight, but the knack for Innovation shown during the war has to Be funneled into the Peace-Economy. Fight Brain-drain. Encourage effective production methods. Less friendiness towards Trusts and cartels. Reward high-qualiy Maß-productable innovations. Keep the promise on Car-ownership. Bring "Fernsehen".

If Europe remains peaceful, but war erupts in East Asia, Germany could

Smells a lot of Albert Speer with a sprinkle of von Neurath!

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by cimon

Smells a lot of Albert Speer with a sprinkle of von Neurath!

I understand your comment in a Way that you deem these directions As feasible for a Göring-leadership.

[cimon]

Originally Posted by Hörnla

I understand your comment in a Way that you deem these directions As feasible for a Göring-leadership.

partly yes,they are;Goring was a very intelligent individual,but how do we keep his fingers clean?

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by Hörnla

...Benefit from an analogue to the Korea-Effekt of OTL, One of the Main controbutors to the Wirtschaftswunder.

5.) Adequately fund Heisenburg's atomic research instead of building battleships.

Hero of Canton

[Wendell]

You know, if this results in the survival of Nazism or the NSDAP to the present day, one wonders if it would make fascism and similar ideologies seem more credible or be more popular today.

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

5.) Adequately fund Heisenburg's atomic research instead of building battleships.

Hero of Canton

I agree that Germany should't need a formidable Navy in this scenario. But I Fear that sufficient funding for a Nuclear programme is Even more expensive. Abs it would Not Be clean how far down the Road Net gain would wait.

---

Keeping göring's hands clean? Far Too Late by 1940. We have to Accept him As a lesser Evil.

---

On the later image of nazism: sadly, hitler will Be remembered As a Great statesman, at least in germany. His Name will only Be connected with economic Recovery, national unity, the diplomatic defeat of Versailles... Criticism, Even if Not suppressed, would find Few followers. If the Regime fails, Blame will Fall upon His successors and/or murderers.

Generally, even if fascism/nazism fail later on; if OTLs ww2 As we Know it and the Holocaust are mainly butterflied Away, apologetis of These governments will have a Far easier Time.

[Shaby]

Berlin, April 2nd to 4th

Neurath, Goering, Todt, Canaris and Brauchitsch met after Neurath received Romanian note proposing mutual defense treaty and asking for immediate help. Neurath gave a brief resume of the situation and interpretation of stipulations of the Non-Aggression pact. While the pact recognized Soviet Union has the right to annex Bessarabia, Northern Bukovina was not subject of the treaty. The mere fact that Soviet demands extended beyond the treaty indicated Soviets consider Germany weak. Allowing this breach to go unnoticed may encourage Soviet Union to further beaches. Goering, being enthusiastic about the offer, wanted to cease on the opportunity. He saw a way to spread German influence on Romania and if Romania choose to stand fast against Soviet Union he felt compelled to aid them. Todt opined that continuous supply of raw materials from soviet Union was critical to Germany and that Germany could ill afford to cut relations with Soviet Union now. Steel production especially will suffer from lack of critical alloy compounds, such as manganese and nickel. Oil also presented a problem, although less so as it was possible to replace Soviet supplies by Romanian. Todt admitted even if imports from Soviets were cut right now, Germany could maintain current level of industrial output for a few more months. However, once existing stockpiles go empty, total industrial collapse will result.

Goering stated he expects crisis might be resolved by that time, or failing that, alternative sources be found. He asked Brauchitsch for an opinion on strategic situation on both Romanian and German front towards Soviets. General replied Soviet occupation of areas demanded in the ultimatum would put their forces beyond main Romanian defenses located along Dniester river. Red Army would have an open route to further attack Romania and subjugate the country. In short, the best defensive position for Romania is along Dniester and if they lose that, than there are no natural obstacles for mobile thrust to the capital. Brauchitsch said that OKH is confident that any Soviet attempt to attack East Prussia could be contained easily. The front there was narrow, fortified and suited for defense. The most appropriate attack route for Soviets lays across Polish territory and Soviets would not be foolish enough to re-ignite the general war with Entente.

Neurath expressed his belief that Soviets do not intend to subjugate Romania, at least not in foreseeable time. The demand for Northern Bukovina is Stalin's way to test how much he can get away with and what Germany will tolerate. All of the information on Soviet Union and Stalin in possession of Foreign ministry indicated Stalin does not want open war and should Soviets face the threat of one, they would retreat. He concluded with statement the 'we should show German government takes the agreements and pacts seriously and we will not allow the slightest breaches'. Neurath was convinced firm stance now will open up door for more favorable trade terms with Soviets later on.

Canaris opined that Abwehr shows no indication of Soviet military preparations anywhere but in the Romanian sector. Intelligence sources in Baltic states showed no increase in Soviet forces to levels necessary for invasion of German territory. Beyond the 100.000 troops deployed to those countries according to mutual assistance pacts Soviets signed with three countries, no additional troops were in evidence. Abwehr conclusion was in accordance with that of Foreign ministry - Soviets aimed at strictly localized conflict.

Having heard all that, Goering contemplated what to do. It was probably impossible to make a deal with Romanians and retain present relationship with the Soviets, a relationship that was becoming a burden. Romanian offer was too tempting to pass up. Ownership share in the Ploesti fields would guarantee direct German control over the most important resource for war. There was no danger of Soviets attacking Germany directly with Poland in between them, and with Soviet main thrust in Romania they would not be able to press on German forces in East Prussia in a highly unlikely prospect Soviets would choose to attack. After all Goering had no intention to declare war on Soviets in any case. Finally, he decided that sending German units to Romania was out of question. 'Volunteers' and 'advisers' would go, same as in Spanish war, but not German army units. Germany would deliver weapons Romania asked for and sign a secret protocol with them. He called on others to voice their opinion on the idea. Only Todt was against, worrying that Germany will be cut off from resources, without any alternative supply available. Goering assured him that in two weeks, the Romanian crisis will be solved. After all, Soviets will not risk open war with Romania backed by Germany. Neurath proposed Germany contact surrounding countries, and use the fear of Soviet Union most of them shared, offering German arms in exchange for economic cooperation or sign a mutual defense treaty. Germany would also guarantee their borders and promise help in fending off potential communist uprisings or insurgencies. The more countries join, the easier it would be for Germany to deter Soviet bear from attempting to further encroach Central and Eastern Europe.

Washington D.C., same week

Soviet ultimatum to Romania confirmed some of the darkest suspicions members of Dies Committee nurtured. It was obvious that final intent of Soviet Union was so called World Revolution. The committee called for nation-wide investigation in order to once and for all end the Red Conspiracy that threatened the liberty of all Americans. Senator Dies also called on Committee on Foreign Relations to recommend executive branch to break off diplomatic relations with Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on account of abusing diplomatic representatives to mount numerous spying and subversive operations in USA. The Committee forwarded evidence that second secretary of the Soviet Embassy, one Konstantin Kukin, is a resident of Soviet intelligence and is actively conducting espionage. In the opinion of the Committee, the entire Soviet embassy in Washington D.C. was a vipers' nest of espionage.

Roosevelt and Cordell Hull met in the White House. Franklin announced his intention not to run for third term in the Presidential election. He did not want to undermine democratic campaign by his nomination. Roosevelt suggested Hull should submit his bid for nomination for Democrats, promising to endorse if he nominated. This promise meant that Hull would almost certainly win nomination, as Democrat party was supporting Roosevelt almost unanimously. Normally, Roosevelt would have chosen his vice president as a successor, but the gap that opened between them lead him to opt for Secretary of State instead. Hull was pleasantly surprised, but refused to commit himself just yet, as he wanted to think it over.

Satisfied, Roosevelt turned to the subject of Far East. He commented on surprising turn around in German stance toward Japan and China. In addition to assigning a ship to the international task force and joining sanctions against Japan, it appeared they even sent some weapons to Chinese. Hull responded that he finds German actions hard to fathom, but in all probability new leadership is ditching the Japan in lieu of China due to purely economic benefits, as well as trying to reconcile with their former enemies taking the shortcut. Hull warned president that German involvement should be carefully observed as they might be planning to foster right wing government in China in the long term. Both men agreed even should this be the case, it would be process stretching over several years with many opportunities to counter such development.

Roosevelt wanted to discuss a more immediate danger, presented by Soviet Union. Cordell agreed that Soviet Union was acting with utter disregard to the established norms of behavior. The ultimatum to Romania was only the latest instance of this sort. Romanians have called upon France and UK to help them resist Soviet demands but the response has so far been lackluster one. Once more United States could offer nothing but reassuring words America stands against tyranny and for democracy and liberty of all peoples. "I have no authority to do anything else!" lamented the President. Hull also reflected on the Dies committee, worrying that it could go too far and develop into modern witch hunt. Equally worrying was the ability of Soviet intelligence to penetrate that deep into US. British seemed to have the same problem and French were close to having their war effort paralyzed by Communist party at one point. All those dots connected in a way to make both men nervous about what future plan of Soviets implied.

Poland

Poland in the meantime intensified the reconstruction of their almost ruined economy. Thankfully Germans were unable to dismantle the heaviest (and by extension the most expensive and the hardest to rebuild) industrial facilities. Unfortunately, many machines and tools essential for operating those facilities were taken away, though, remarkably, Germans did not attempt to sabotage the facilities they left behind. Foreign minister has already submitted the complaint to Court of international arbitrage, but Germans answered by counter claim for damages suffered by Germany in the war, costs of occupation and financing the resettlement of Polish population to justify their plunder representing it as reimbursements. The process was not going any where fast, and Polish people had to live somehow, so government in Warsaw set about to rebuild shattered economy. To this purpose, Poland intended to use half of the gold reserves, which were transferred to Paris at the beginning of hostilities as a collateral to obtain industrial and farming machinery and necessary raw materials, while other half would be used as a base of Polish currency.

Strasburger, as minister of finance, proposed to employ an economist from Britain, certain John Maynard Keynes as an adviser for Polish government. Strasburger read his book and thought the policies outlined in it could be the solution for Poland. He also proposed a scheme to bank roll the state funds for investment in Polish industry. Polish government will issue bonds on international market at 4,5% interest rate and use the proceeds to credit Polish companies at slightly higher interest, thus providing them with capital at favorable terms, while enabling Poland to cover the bond issue and cover the emission expenses. In addition, prominent Polish citizens in USA would attempt to draw American companies to invest in Poland or form joint-ventures with Polish companies.

Polish citizens who escaped from the territories ceded to Germany flocked into Poznan, Lodz and Warsaw. Authorities were on the verge of being overwhelmed by masses of people lacking shelter and without means of subsistence. Massive solidarity effort by entire nation managed to overcome the food crisis and Red Cross joined by British and French helped to alleviate shortage of grains. Polish families moved into homes vacated by Germans and this accounted for a three quarters of refugees from German held territory. The rest moved into former army barracks and hotels transformed into refugee centers while some had to accept temporary accommodation provided by the Polish citizens who had a room or apartment to spare. Government hoped that, by winter, emergency housing reconstruction program will provide with sufficient apartments to move the people out of the makeshift arrangements of barracks and hotels.

Off Alexandria

On board KMS Admiral Graff Spee admiral Lütjens observed the British port of Alexandria through binoculars. Only few months ago the coastal batteries he could see deployed around the naval base would be blazing with fire from numerous guns should any German ship be foolish enough to dare come within their arc. Amused at this turn of events he trained binoculars on the procession of ships in front of the bow of his ship. They were going to refuel in British base before moving on to Suez. 'The Suez!' Mere thought that he was going to sail through this channel, called 'Artery of the Empire', escorted by British and French ships caused him to brake into a smile. They were sailing astern of French battleship Dunkerque, built specifically for the purpose of catching the ship on which he was right now. Magnificent French vessel sailed from Toulon and joined the task force with her sister Strasbourg as they were passing through Mediterranean. Behind him was British cruiser of Town class, bearing the name HMS Southampton, beyond it another one. 'Now I've seen everything!' admiral thought. He heard Captain Langsdorff granting permission to port pilot to climb aboard the ship in order to guide the ship into British base safely. Moments later, the captain came to the bridge. He reported the pilot also brought an invitation for both officers to join British Mediterranean fleet commander, admiral Andrew Cunningham, for supper. 'Will wonders ever cease?' wondered German admiral.

Tokyo, Japan

After the government announced the decision to start negotiations with the Chinese, there was huge uproar from the military. Rumors of potential coup by generals circled the capital. Prince Konoe pleaded with Emperor to publicly support government policy and give a speech that would calm the most extremist generals down and stave off any possibility of the coup or even worse, civil war. Reluctantly, Emperor agreed and he gave a short radio address to the nation, reading one of his haiku poems, cryptically warning of dangers befalling a man taking on a burden harder than one could take.

Meanwhile, Navy deployed what limited amount of ground trained personnel they possessed to guard the most vital buildings. War in China has seen to it that only limited amount of heavy weapons was stationed in the homeland and Navy could counter it from its ships, so there was a real possibility to defeat any army attempt to capture important buildings by force of arms. Assassins remained the danger, though, and countering it was police personnel and specially trained bodyguards that started escorting Prime minister and other members of the government everywhere.

[voodoomaster]

Looking good and loving the timeline.

Minor nitpick Southampton was a Town Class Cruiser not a County Class

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by voodoomaster

Looking good and loving the timeline.

Thanks a lot. And...

Originally Posted by voodoomaster

Minor nitpick Southampton was a Town Class Cruiser not a County Class

Corrected. Normally I do check for things like that, but I did not have Internet available over the weekend, so I went by the memory.

[abc123]

Intresting. Just continue with good work.
I have one minor nitpick: I'm not sure that Germans would not send their armed forces in Romania, because if they dont do that, Soviets will think that Germans are bluffing...

[Minerb10]

Originally Posted by naraht

I think New Zealand has a better chance of disconnecting the Islands from the bottow of the Ocean giving oars to half of the sheep and teaching the other half to fly than using one of the British Carriers.

AS a New Zealander i am deeply offended and would like to point out although we have alot of sheep the welsh are the original sheep hoarders. Due to population New zealand would not be able to operate a carrier but still even at this time new zealand and australia have very close military ties and would likely unite all navy and airforce operations and could possibly support 1 carrier if combined with aussie

Shaby awesome thread its taken me all week to reach this far and i loved every minute, still germany hasnt discovered soviet spies is this an overlook or part of the story??