Explosion heard around the world... Or Elser succeeds

[abc123]

Shaby- a question.

What happend with WC ( aka Liver of Steel )? Did he resign from Chamberlain's Cabinet after Amsterdam Peace Agreement?

[cimon]

Originally Posted by abc123

No, I didn't say that they can't ever operate the carrier, but I wanted to say that they need a few years of learning the trade with smaller vessels and then go to carriers.
It's like giving Jumbo Jet to fly to someone who started lessons on Cessna 172. Nobody say's that he cant ever fly Jumbo jet, but he has many years until then...

Well,something like that they did later with their airforce and from Canberras they came up with Miraz fighter bombers! capital outlay and bilateral agreements about intensive training on the machines and their ordinance created in an extremely short period of time a very formidable airforce along with a spare part production and maintainance plant and overwhaul facilities.The naval installations there were very advanced-of course I only speak about what I saw there at the time of the white government there and what I was told that it existed there before.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by cimon

Well,something like that they did later with their airforce and from Canberras they came up with Miraz fighter bombers! capital outlay and bilateral agreements about intensive training on the machines and their ordinance created in an extremely short period of time a very formidable airforce along with a spare part production and maintainance plant and overwhaul facilities.The naval installations there were very advanced-of course I only speak about what I saw there at the time of the white government there and what I was told that it existed there before.

Again, IIRC, in 1939 South African Naval Service had a few ASW whalers. Not even a few destroyers, not to mention light cruisers.
And now, you would want that they jump in aircraft carrier. Escorted with whalers?

Also, the main thing, why South Africa ( or better: Boers/Hertzog there ) needs an aircraft carrier at the first place?
OTL they didn't want to send their land forces out of Africa and now, in time of peace, with no threat less than 5000 km from South Africa, they would want to operate carrier out of sheer solidarity with British Empire so to help British to fight against Japanese?

Yes, they can buy people and equipment, but if you somehow convince Government in Pretoria that they need strong Navy, I don't think that they will want to have "rent a Navy"...

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by abc123

Shaby- a question.

What happend with WC ( aka Liver of Steel )? Did he resign from Chamberlain's Cabinet after Amsterdam Peace Agreement?

Winston resigned as he threatened, and Sir Oliver Stanley was appointed First Lord in his stead.

Alas, not much I can do to retcon navy posts. Unfortunately, month has passed since I posted those. But I'll make it that British reconsider for some reason.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Shaby

Winston resigned as he threatened, and Sir Oliver Stanley was appointed First Lord in his stead.

Alas, not much I can do to retcon navy posts. Unfortunately, month has passed since I posted those. But I'll make it that British reconsider for some reason.

Thanks for answer.
Simply IMO it is too early for something so large in New Zealand and South Africa. And while SA may one day be able to operate carrier, New Zealand will never be able, unless of course he disbands all other defence services.

[naraht]

Originally Posted by abc123

Thanks for answer.
Simply IMO it is too early for something so large in New Zealand and South Africa. And while SA may one day be able to operate carrier, New Zealand will never be able, unless of course he disbands all other defence services.

I think New Zealand has a better chance of disconnecting the Islands from the bottow of the Ocean giving oars to half of the sheep and teaching the other half to fly than using one of the British Carriers.

[Shaby]

Bucharest, Romania, April 1st

While attention of the whole world was focused on China, government of Romania received an ultimatum from Moscow. The ultimatum was delivered to Romanian embassy in Moscow and reached Bucharest an hour later. The ultimatum left two weeks deadline for response and acceptance or face the might of the Red Army. The King invited Prime minister, foreign minister, minister of defense and chief of staff of the army to discuss the issue. Foreign minister Gigurtu first briefed them on reports of anti-Romanian campaign in Soviet press, coupled with 'spontaneous' demonstrations in bordering cities demanding 'liberation' of Ukrainian people from Romanian yoke. Next, Tenescu, the chief of General staff, read the reports from border garrisons that during the last two weeks they frequently heard revving of the tank engines, while Navy reported numerous demonstrations by ships of Soviet navy. They never violated territorial waters, always turning about at the last moment. Tenescu expressed his opinion Soviets were spoiling for fight, testing responses of Romanian defenses. On orders from him, Army was refraining from any active defense and maintain secrecy of defensive positions and guard border with vigilance but avoid open confrontation at any cost.

King Carol expressed his opinion that integrity of Romanian territory is inviolable and Soviet request should be summarily rejected and general mobilization proclaimed. Chief of staff replied this should not be undertaken lightly as there was no information on the Soviet forces now concentrating across the border. Judging by radio communication intercepts at least 30 divisions were arrayed on the front and possibly even more. Estimates based on Soviet standard TO&E hinted those amounted up to half million soldiers, depending on the force structure. Amount of tanks was unknown, but any more than 200 would outnumber entire Romanian tank park. On paper, based on purely military considerations, any fight against Soviets would amount to national suicide. However, Tenescu said, fortifications on the border would present significant force multiplier, coupled with the fact the Romanian forces will be on defense. Defensive position relied on Nistru river and after spring thaw started, the river turned into significant obstacle to any advance.

Foreign minister, prompted by Prime minister Tatarescu said that Romania could rely both on guarantee by British and French, as well as alliance with Turkey and Yugoslavia. Germany should also find interest in supporting Romania as it was well known they were the leading anti-communist power in Europe. It was true that they agreed with Soviets to divide Poland, but they couldn't leave Romania to its fate, could they, he asked rhetorically. Everyone agreed and they came to the conclusion following steps must be taken at once:

a) limited mobilization as a precursor to general one
b) immediately establishing contact with French, British, German, Yugoslavian and Turkish governments to inform them on Soviet actions
c) responding to Soviet ultimatum with proposal for negotiations, with the aim to gain time, and partly to determine if Soviets are serious about their threats
d) inform the general population on everything to instill national unity in case the worst happened.

If foreign support could not be secured, Prime minister opined, then only remaining option would be accepting the Soviet demands. He was supported by chief of general staff, Tenescu. The king disagreed, but accepted to withhold the decision for a week, until foreign powers were contacted. Foreign minister expressed his hope that France and Britain would stand up to their guarantee, especially since Romania fostered close relationship with France. Minister of defense wanted authorization for procurement of additional weapons and foreign minister was tasked to start discussions with French and contract delivery of new batch of tanks.

Far East

Meanwhile, Japanese offensive was stalled again after advancing 50 more kilometers into Chinese territory. The corridor now stretched 100 kilometers back and was some 25 kilometers wide. To advance further more troops were needed, so Yamashita took leave to Tokyo to try and persuade Imperial General Staff to reinforce his troops. Promised three guards brigade were late in coming and Yamashita had to expend some of his first rate combat troops in security tasks in the rear. Experiment with Chinese troops proved a failure as it required almost as much Japanese as Chinese troops to maintain the discipline of those security units. Some of the Japanese officers even took to calling them insecurity units.

In Tokyo, meanwhile there was a heated debate between the civilian politicians, supported by Navy and military, supported mostly by the threat of force, on what to do about American ultimatum. Prime minister wanted to start negotiations while Hata wanted to continue the offensive in China, promising that Chinese would never recover after this defeat and would have to agree to favorable peace. Foreign minister emphasized that in case Japan fails to respond o American demands, process of slow strangulation will begin. Once Japan runs out of raw materials, no military activity would be possible at all. Yonai further added that even import from other countries not adhering to the sanctions would be in doubt. By virtue of its island position, Japan entirely relied on imports of raw materials by sea. Japanese faced the danger of being isolated from the rest of the world. Furthermore, added minister of finance, if US followed on the threat of freezing Japanese assets in USA and if France, UK and The Netherlands joined this, Japan would be unable to buy anything at all, regardless whether they would find anyone willing to defy some of the greatest powers in the world. Germany joining the initiative was the most ominous news. Hata waved all of the concerns off and claimed that in two or three weeks, Chinese would be on the brink of defeat.

The discussion went back and forth with no side able to bring the other one around. Yonai and Hata threatened to resign in turns and finally, issue was settled by Prime minister calling for a vote on the issue. Sole opposing vote came from Hata, who announced his resignation. This event brought Japanese government to an impasse, as no decision could now be brought. Immediately, consultations on a new government started. Yorinaga announced that Council of peers will consider possible candidates and choose the most appropriate one.

[Eurofed]

Nice to notice that the overwhelming pressure of reality is apparently worming its way in the super-thick skulls of the Japanese military.

The Romanian situation could evolve in many different ways, depending on Anglo-French and German reactions.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Nice to notice that the overwhelming pressure of reality is apparently worming its way in the super-thick skulls of the Japanese military.

The Romanian situation could evolve in many different ways, depending on Anglo-French and German reactions.

I agree.
I wonder, what would France and Britain do ( not to even menton Germany ) in light of tensions with Japan? Will they appease USSR?

[EmmettMcFly55]

And, of course, there are the Hungarians, who are probably also contemplating their options both in case the Romanians choose war and if they choose negotiations. In the case of the former, I wonder if the idea of reclaiming Transsylvania is enough to push an anti-communist like Horthy to ally with the USSR in a big European war.

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by EmmettMcFly55

And, of course, there are the Hungarians, who are probably also contemplating their options both in case the Romanians choose war and if they choose negotiations. In the case of the former, I wonder if the idea of reclaiming Transsylvania is enough to push an anti-communist like Horthy to ally with the USSR in a big European war.

Hungary would/should not ally with Stalin unless German neutrality is absolutely given.

If not Hungary would be surrounded from the start (esp. if Yugoslavia honors its alliance with Romania) and I presume that the Germans would move far more quickly towards Budapest than the Red Army advances in Bessarabia.

[cimon]

France and England may face a problem of immediate needs;the USSR was too close for comfort and far east was too far for substancial intervention which in reality was above the means of both nations that had come out of a war and not yet fully recovered.What effort were they prepared to make to protect Romania?much would depend on what Germany was prepared to do.Would France and England deliberate with Germany on the matter?
A small detail though:what did the Soviet ultimatum contain?

[Shaby]

Ultimatum itself is identical to OTL one.

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by cimon

France and England may face a problem of immediate needs;the USSR was too close for comfort and far east was too far for substancial intervention which in reality was above the means of both nations that had come out of a war and not yet fully recovered.What effort were they prepared to make to protect Romania?much would depend on what Germany was prepared to do.Would France and England deliberate with Germany on the matter?
A small detail though:what did the Soviet ultimatum contain?

If Stalin quickly Grabs bessarabia and Makes Peace, He would probably get Away with it. If Romania is to Be Turned Red, an Alliance of Strange bedfellows might quickly Form.

Concerning the far East- a Lot depends on the Way Japan Acts henceforth. Of they do Not Attack the Allied navies, they will face war against strengthened Chinese. If they Attack, they will Jump dorectly to 1944; just without the bomb.

[cimon]

Originally Posted by abc123

Again, IIRC, in 1939 South African Naval Service had a few ASW whalers. Not even a few destroyers, not to mention light cruisers.
And now, you would want that they jump in aircraft carrier. Escorted with whalers?

Also, the main thing, why South Africa ( or better: Boers/Hertzog there ) needs an aircraft carrier at the first place?
OTL they didn't want to send their land forces out of Africa and now, in time of peace, with no threat less than 5000 km from South Africa, they would want to operate carrier out of sheer solidarity with British Empire so to help British to fight against Japanese?

Yes, they can buy people and equipment, but if you somehow convince Government in Pretoria that they need strong Navy, I don't think that they will want to have "rent a Navy"...

In 1940 the SANF was formed by fusion of previously existing commands including submarine and anti-submarine command.In 1942 SANF numbered 10332 men rank and file.In 1944 it numbered 87 ships and not exactly what you claim they had.See:www.navy.mil.za

[abc123]

Originally Posted by cimon

In 1940 the SANF was formed by fusion of previously existing commands including submarine and anti-submarine command.In 1942 SANF numbered 10332 men rank and file.In 1944 it numbered 87 ships and not exactly what you claim they had.See:www.navy.mil.za

Yes? How exactly it contradicts to what I said?

We are speaking about January/February of 1940 here? 1942 is still 2 years away and also that what you mentioned happened OTL, in mid of war for survival of British Empire.

Between 1933 and 1934, however, the Great Depression forced Government to return the ships and pay off all but two SANS officers and three ratings who were retained for survey work. The Royal Navy retained three officers, nine ratings and ten civilians to continue the training and supply of the RNVR (SA), which continued to operate.
In January 1940 South Africa established a new naval unit, the Seaward Defence Force, which was commanded by Rear Admiral G.W. Halifax, CMG. The Seaward Defence Force took over responsibility from the Royal Navy for operating the minesweepers, anti submarine services, and the other examination and signaling duties in South African waters.

During the Second World War, South Africa's "little ships" earned an enviable reputation in the Mediterranean. It was said that "the discipline, morale and above all, the marksmanship of the 22nd Anti-Submarine guys, were unequalled in the inshore squadron." In South African waters our ships patrolled the entrances to our ports, escorted convoys between them, swept enemy mines and rescued more than 400 survivors from ships torpedoed by the many submarines operating in the area.

I don't see where you find capability to take over aircraft carrier immediatly when strongest ships in your fleet are frigates and even they are delivered since 1942/43?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...h_African_Navy

This is a list of all ships that were in South African Navy. Now look at commisioning and decomissioning dates, and you will see how many ships and what kind of ships they had.

At the end of war, after recieving big help from UK, they had:


At the end of the war, South Africa received three Loch Class frigates: HMSAS Good Hope, HMSAS Natal and HMSAS Transvaal. HMSAS Natal achieved a war record when she sank the German submarine U714 whilst still on trials off St Abb's Head on 14 March 1945. On 1 May 1946 the SANF was reconstituted as part of the Union Defence Force with compliment of 60 officers and 806 men. Its fleet consisted of the three Loch Class frigates, two boom defence vessels (HMSAS Barbrake and HMSAS Barcross), one minelayer (HMSAS Spindrift) and 12 harbour defence motor launches. In 1947 the Algerine Class ocean minesweepers HMSAS Bloemfontein (ex HMS Rosamund) and HMSAS Pietermaritzburg (ex HMS Pelorus) arrived, both of which were commissioned in September that year.

Also, why would South African Government ( after the war in Europe was concluded without firing a shot ) would invest large money in operating of old aircraft carrier? They much more need frigates or destroyers to patrol their own waters.
The same Government that only 10 years before decided to allmost disband SANS because of lack of funds?

I'm not saying that one day South Africa couldn't operate small aircraft carrier. I just want to say that anything before say 1945 is IMHO too early for that.
And with that I mean 4-5 years of big RN help to SANS in form of ships, training, personell etc.

[cimon]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Nice to notice that the overwhelming pressure of reality is apparently worming its way in the super-thick skulls of the Japanese military.

The Romanian situation could evolve in many different ways, depending on Anglo-French and German reactions.

Yes,but the hardliners are bend on rectifying the situatuion in the composition of a new gov.

[cimon]

Originally Posted by Shaby

Ultimatum itself is identical to OTL one.

Exactly Shaby..so what are the Soviets doing with 30 divisions a...picnick?
I see their eastern front sector(east of Botosani-to Danube Delta) on Dniester they will need two infantry armies,two armoured corps(one on line and one on reserve) and a motorifle corps and a cavalry division to probe for river pores and other special missions,along with multiple army command artilery along with army reserves.
In the Western Ucraine front(West of Botosani to Satu Mare,they will need one army,a mountain corps including a motorifle division,two armoured corps(one front line,one reserve) and the general STAVKA command reserve should be a Motorifle army.In the area south of the Danube delta-north of Constanta the Black sea fleet should be able to land a marine division plus motor and armour elements to threaten the Southern flank of the Romanian army with a bridgehead that will be enlarged within 48 hours from the Odessa command.The total should come up to 36 infantry divisions 8 armoured and three motorifle divisions,3 mountain divisions,1-2 marine divisions, plus reserves.

[cimon]

ABC 123,
1) It was not necessary to quote from the site I gave you,I also read it,but it is necessary to point out that the escort you mentioned,especially in the Mediterranean and the Indian oceans were destroyers;with some of the officers in those ships who were also Rhodesians I had extensive discussions in Salisbury where was also their assossiation and they were discussing what ships the SA government was requesting from Britain including two destroyers...
2) The facts I disclosed from the site were indicative,if for example 10332 persons were serving in 1944,3-5000 could have being serving in 1940 and so on,but unfortunately electronic sites are sadly inadequate in info,and most times inaccurate,and unfortunately I don't have with me any of my books which i could direct you to.
3) don't disclose what ships were decommissioned,but what ships were commissioned,the frigates are mentioned as new ships,NOT that tey were the only ships in their navy.
Please don't underestimate South Africa(the largest country in Africa then) and of course their government,as also other goverments in the Commonwealth were planning for years ahead and I am certain they saw the peace in Europe as an uneasy one,and,all the countries with very extensive coast line would like to project naval power in all directions,something that an aircraft carrier with its escorting vessels was
capable of providing.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by cimon

ABC 123,
1) It was not necessary to quote from the site I gave you,I also read it,but it is necessary to point out that the escort you mentioned,especially in the Mediterranean and the Indian oceans were destroyers;with some of the officers in those ships who were also Rhodesians I had extensive discussions in Salisbury where was also their assossiation and they were discussing what ships the SA government was requesting from Britain including two destroyers...
2) The facts I disclosed from the site were indicative,if for example 10332 persons were serving in 1944,3-5000 could have being serving in 1940 and so on,but unfortunately electronic sites are sadly inadequate in info,and most times inaccurate,and unfortunately I don't have with me any of my books which i could direct you to.
3) don't disclose what ships were decommissioned,but what ships were commissioned,the frigates are mentioned as new ships,NOT that tey were the only ships in their navy.
Please don't underestimate South Africa(the largest country in Africa then) and of course their government,as also other goverments in the Commonwealth were planning for years ahead and I am certain they saw the peace in Europe as an uneasy one,and,all the countries with very extensive coast line would like to project naval power in all directions,something that an aircraft carrier with its escorting vessels was
capable of providing.

Fine, than can you tell me wich ships did South Africa have in February 1940 in rank of destroyer, frigate, light/heawy cruiser etc?

We are not speaking here about RN ships with part ( smaller or larger ) of crew from South Africa/Rhodesia etc.

And I'm not underestimating nobody, least South Africa, but aircraft carrier was out of their league in February 1940. After all, why South Africa OTL never operated anything larger than destroyer? Because she didn't need anything larger.