Explosion heard around the world... Or Elser succeeds

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by 00idiot

The US, in the meantime, will finish all 4 SoDaks, build all six Iowas, and start in on the Montanas.

Thanks for drawing my attention to this. The way I see it, this world might just end up in a new naval race. Talk about unintended consequences. Unless something happens that stops this. We will see... Stay tuned. I probably won't have time to post an update before thursday.

[abc123]

I wonder what will happen with neutrality of Netherlands, belgium, Denmark, Norway, Sweden...

For Sweden and Netherlands i'm pretty sure that they will remain neutral.

About belgium, they might see that France and UK saved them from Germany, so they could go with them.

Denmark and Norway will probably try to remain neutral, but what with Finnland?

[Hörnla]

Originally Posted by abc123

About belgium, they might see that France and UK saved them from Germany, so they could go with them.

Not necessarily. They saw it all worked out fine and Germany went back to a peaceful way without invading Belgium. Why bother afterwards? Also, the King might be drawn even closer to Germany with its "softer" Nationalsozialismus ITTL.

And anyways, being saved by Britain and France was not a new experience to Belgium anyways.

[Shaby]

Ironically, The Netherlands might be more drawn to Allies because of Japan. Belgium will (probably) not face the same pressure as Dutch to align anywhere as yet.

Just want to inform I was busy being happy, as my sister gave birth to a daughter, so I hadn't have time for writing an update. I hope I'll manage to write next post during the weekend.

[ccdsah]

In this timeline, with no european distraction I'd doubt Japan will try something insane like Pearl Harbour attack. I see it focusing more on China. I wonder if Germany would not intervene for a mediation between China/USSR and Japan and maybe Japan can get all the resources she needs from USSR just like Germany

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Shaby

Just want to inform I was busy being happy, as my sister gave birth to a daughter,

Congratulations daidža.

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by abc123

Congratulations daidža.

Welcome to the ranks of U.N.C.L.E.

Hero of Canton

[Adler17]

Congrats!

Adler

[Shaby]

Thanks everyone for congratulations. And finally, an update follows.

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by Ciano's Diary, January 10th

Il Duce and I met with Ante Pavelic, self proclaimed leader of Croats and head of the Ustashe movement. Once Benito started his scheme in Yugoslavia, I pointed out that to include this insurgent into it could only help. In two hours we spent talking to him and his lieutenant Kvaternik we discussed the ability of this movement to further our schemes in Yugoslavia. Duce wanted to have some semblance of legality in his bid to cause Yugoslavia to fall apart. Having a rebellion would enable Italy to come to the aid unhindered under the guise of interested party, summoned by friendly Croatian neighbors. Precedents to this were apparent in Slovakia and Manchuria and we have no reason to think this would not work here. Of course, our aim was to acquire certain important ports on the Eastern Adriatic coast and access to important raw material deposits in Yugoslavia.

While willing to help us, Pavelic refused to talk about handing parts of Adriatic coast in Dalmatia to Italy after the Yugoslavia was destroyed. He pointed out that popularity and legitimacy of his movement depended on appearing stronger than Serbian-dominated Yugoslavia. Pavelic pointed out that this was ideal moment as establishment of Banovina Hrvatska instigated more separatism from Croatians. The fact that central government controlled almost everything in the province, didn't help much either. Mussolini agreed and I pointed out that Italian only desire and goal would be to establish a secure ally on the other side of the Adriatic sea.

Once more discussion headed to the question of territorial demarcation and both Duce and I demanded that cities of Spalato and Ragusa be ceded to Italy as naval bases. After fifteen minutes of impasse, we agreed to leave those questions aside and focus to practical matters. Pavelic stated that his forces amounted to a brigade of infantry trained for insurgency. He also claimed he could raise full insurgent movement after infiltrating Croatian populated territories of Dalmatia and Herzegovina, creating large scale disturbance that would wreck the ability of Yugoslav army to resist Italian invasion. After the rebellion challenged legitimate authorities, Italy will recognize separatist government and Pavelic will then invite our forces to help. Our proposal to create Kingdom of Croatia in personal union with Italian monarch was met with vehement refusal by both Croats.

After they left, I informed Duce Hungary has pledged to support us directly if they can be sure of non-interference of western powers and once Yugoslavian forces defending their front weaken or indirectly by concentrating their troops on the border, forcing Yugoslavian army to respond. In return for this support Hungary demands Yugoslav province of Vojvodina be ceded to them, claiming it historically belonged to Hungary. Despite the fact they decided to play it safe, Duce and I decided to use their support, but they will be informed that borders will be determined after the war and they will receive no guarantees or promises beforehand. Bulgaria refrained from taking part in the scheme, citing ill prepared and weak army.

Mussolini then invited Badoglio and given him instructions to prepare the army for spring campaign. We opened the huge table map of Yugoslavia and Badoglio indicated main axles of advance. Bulk of invading forces would come from direction of Istria and Friuli, where 20 divisions will be arrayed, including Ariete and Littorio Divisions, one motorized, three alpine divisions and 12 infantry divisions. To link up with insurgents, two infantry divisions will advance from Zara. Besides, two cavalry divisions now being mobilized in order to be used in securing lines of communication for the invasion forces. In addition, one corps including one alpine, one armored and two infantry divisions will advance from Albania. Also, almost entire Italian air force will be thrown into fray, first to defeat Yugoslav air force and then to support Italian forces as they advance. Mussolini approved the plan and directed Badoglio to prepare everything for early April. He also proposed to integrate as much veterans from Spain as possible into invasion units. Badoglio agreed, saying this is a good idea. After that, Badoglio and I were dismissed and we left.

Mussolini and Pavelic photographed in Rome


January 15th, Zhengzou China

Yamashita was named CO of the Japanese 5th Area Army, newly created formation, subordinated directly to the China Expeditionary Army. He requested he be granted permission to name his staff and elected to name Tadamichi Kuribayashi as his Chief of Staff while he wanted to have General Homma to command one of the two armies under his direct command and Renya Mutaguchi to command the other one. Nishio agreed to forward this proposal with favorable recommendation to the Imperial General Headquarters. The two armies will be formed with four divisions each and armored division will be under direct command of General Yamashita, as army level asset. Preliminary date for the operation was set on mid February to early March, when he expected to formulate a comprehensive plan. Timetable had to be hurried because he was informed by Commander in Chief Nishio that they had only three more months for resolving Chinese incident. After that government will have to 'consider other solutions'.

Through his private channels Yamashita heard that there was German proposal of mediation. Nishio also spoke of this proposal, but dismissed the German view of 'honorable peace' as unacceptable, while refusing to even quote the opinion of Hata and Prince Kan'in, thus leaving little to imagination. Japanese High Command was confident that large scale Chinese defeat in this operation will bring China back to negotiating table. Yamashita's opinion was somewhat different, but he could do nothing but obey the orders from his Emperor hoping the outcome will be positive for his army and his nation. The most he could do was to employ the best of his abilities to ensure this outcome.

[Hero of Canton]

I sense two full-fledged fiascos in the making.

Hero of Canton

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

I sense two full-fledged fiascos in the making.

Yugoslavia defeating Italy ? Not any likely. The Italian army was much, much more prepared to fight Yugoslavia than Greece (it's more or less the default war scenario they have been preparing for in the last two decades), they have a much better logistic chain, help from Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croat separatists, and no second front in Africa. Plus I wouldn't bet much on the willingness of Slovene, Croat, and Macedonian recruits to fight for 'Greater Serbia' to the death.

It may certainly take Mussolini some more time and effort than the Wehrmacht's 1941 Blitzkrieg, but if the Entente doesn't step in (rather unlikely, IOTL they never bothered to give a military guarantee to Yugoslavia, unlike Poland, Romania, and Greece, especially if Croat separatism is the casus belli), Yugoslavia is going to fold.

[Urban fox]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Yugoslavia defeating Italy ? Not any likely. The Italian army was much, much more prepared to fight Yugoslavia than Greece (it's more or less the default war scenario they have been preparing for in the last two decades), they have a much better logistic chain, help from Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croat separatists, and no second front in Africa. Plus I wouldn't bet much on the willingness of Slovene, Croat, and Macedonian recruits to fight for 'Greater Serbia' to the death.

It may certainly take Mussolini some more time and effort than the Wehrmacht's 1941 Blitzkrieg, but if the Entente doesn't step in (rather unlikely, IOTL they never bothered to give a military guarantee to Yugoslavia, unlike Poland, Romania, and Greece, especially if Croat separatism is the casus belli), Yugoslavia is going to fold.

Yugoslavia had internal problems true, but Mussolini had cocked-up the Italian Army so badly that he made Luigi Cadorna look like bloody Napoleon.

I also doubt Hungary & Bulgaria would make a move before the Yugoslavs were safely beaten. Which means Mussolini's army is in for intresting times...

[abc123]

Hmm, the thing is: alltrough Croats and Slovenes don't like Yugoslavia very much, attack by Italy alone ( without Germany ) is pretty much only thing that can force Croats to fight for Yugoslavia, because they did know that Italy attacks Yugoslavia only because she want's Dalmatia and eastern coast of Adriatic and if Hungarians help them, that would be additional impetus for Croats to fight for Yugoslavia as they will see that attack as attempt of their former hegemons Hungarians to take control over Croatia again.

Also, at the moment ( early 1940 ) Croats are pretty much satisfied in Yugoslavia ( Cvetković-Maček Agreement was only a few months before, so the mood in Croatia is pretty much sober optimism about Yugoslavia ( Croatia did get substantial authonomy by that Agreement, and Croatian Peasant Party, that had 80% of Croat votes than was behind that Agreement ), so Ustashes were a small minority than. And it will remain so until Italy puts them on power.

[stubear1012]

I remember the 90's in the original time line and the long bitter war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The war dragged on for several years. Many innocent people were raped, tortured, or killed. There was a great deal of destruction done.

Will this war trigger the same type of ethnic cleaning, death, and destruction?

Thank you

Stubear1012

[abc123]

Originally Posted by stubear1012

I remember the 90's in the original time line and the long bitter war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The war dragged on for several years. Many innocent people were raped, tortured, or killed. There was a great deal of destruction done.

Will this war trigger the same type of ethnic cleaning, death, and destruction?

Thank you

Stubear1012

This is perhaps better map:



Red- Catholics
Blue- Orthodox
Yellow- Muslims

[stubear1012]

Thank you, your map is better in terms of showing the potential problem.

Stubear1012

[Hero of Canton]

Originally Posted by Eurofed

Yugoslavia defeating Italy ? Not any likely. The Italian army was much, much more prepared to fight Yugoslavia than Greece (it's more or less the default war scenario they have been preparing for in the last two decades), they have a much better logistic chain, help from Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croat separatists, and no second front in Africa. Plus I wouldn't bet much on the willingness of Slovene, Croat, and Macedonian recruits to fight for 'Greater Serbia' to the death.

It may certainly take Mussolini some more time and effort than the Wehrmacht's 1941 Blitzkrieg, but if the Entente doesn't step in (rather unlikely, IOTL they never bothered to give a military guarantee to Yugoslavia, unlike Poland, Romania, and Greece, especially if Croat separatism is the casus belli), Yugoslavia is going to fold.

What I meant was that it seemed to me that both of the planned "short, glorious offensives" were going to end up with the aggressors hip-deep/deeper in a quagmire. China is already proving to be such for Japan and Yugoslavia might well prove so for Il Duce's "Glorious Legions".

Hero of Canton

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Hero of Canton

What I meant was that it seemed to me that both of the planned "short, glorious offensives" were going to end up with the aggressors hip-deep/deeper in a quagmire. China is already proving to be such for Japan and Yugoslavia might well prove so for Il Duce's "Glorious Legions".

Well, if we talk of Italy (and its would-be partition partners) getting mired in a guerrilla quagmire in the depth of ex-Yugoslavia fueled by the usual ethnic mess, that's another issue entirely. This may easily happen.

I was just making a reference to the fact that Italy, nasty stereotypes to the contrary, is not any likely to suffer a *conventional* defeat or stalemate from Yugoslavia. Most of the conditions that caused the Greece/Compass debacle simply aren't present.

However, if indeed Mussolini can place the Ustase in charge of Croatia-Bosnia, in all likelihood it shall be a huge humanitarian tragedy, given the anti-Serb bloodthirstiness of Pavelic and co. (those guys had the rare distinction of making the Nazis have issues with their brutality); but those thugs can to a large degree be tasked with dealing with Serb and Muslim insurgents in Bosnia and Krajina. This would lessen the military burden.

[PsihoKekec]

Yugoslavia defeating Italy ? Not any likely. The Italian army was much, much more prepared to fight Yugoslavia than Greece (it's more or less the default war scenario they have been preparing for in the last two decades), they have a much better logistic chain, help from Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croat separatists, and no second front in Africa. Plus I wouldn't bet much on the willingness of Slovene, Croat, and Macedonian recruits to fight for 'Greater Serbia' to the death.

The oppression that Slovenes and Croats in Italia were subjected was well known in Yugoslavia, after all twenty years of fascist rule made almost half of million of them into refugees. So while there would still be considerable ustashe sabotage of war effort (small chance of uprising though), the Slovenes and Dalmatia Croats would fight, not out of love for Serbia but because the enemy is Italy.
Another set of problems is that Italy is also the enemy that the Yugoslavia has been preparing to fight for years. Border is fortified (although not as much as on the Italian side) and the terrain favors the defender. Due to rather narrow main front, this is bound to turn into bloody slugfest, unless Hungary and Bulgaria enter the war.