John Adams Captured en-route to France. 1778

John Adams was dispatched to Europe, more specifically France in 1778/1779. It is known that his ship escaped capture several times by maraudering British ships. (as dramatized by the HBO John Adams miniseries.)What exactly are the effects of John Adams being captured on his journey to France by the British Navy, and subsequently was placed on trial and executed. Who exactly would take his place as VP, especially to be someone as influential as he was in attaining that position?
 
Jefferson would be the most likely candidate for VP and to replace Adams on his mission to France.

I don't know how this would affect Adams jnr, if his father had not been President would he have become President?
 
My thoughts are:
1. I do not know enough about British policy towards captured high ranking American rebels to know if a trial and execution are likely. My guess is that like his fellow member of Congress and diplomat, Silas Dean, who was captured by the British, there would be an uncomfortable room in the Tower of London waiting for John until the end of the war.
2. With a major member of Congress captured, Congress might be hesitant to send another diplomat across the Atlantic until his safe arrival was more likely. Since Franklin was already in Paris (and thought that Adams was unecessary, and even a hindrance, to negotiations with France) I think the French allinace happens on schedule if Saratoga is an American victory.
3. Assuming that Adams is released at the end of the war, it is still possible that he could be a U.S. diplomat in Europe and then be elected VP in 1788, However, a long stay in the Tower might break Adams' health(both physical and mental) and preclude any immeditate employment.
4. An interesting possibility is that Adams is relaeased at the end of the war, returns home and is named as one of Massachusetts' delegates to the Federal Convention. Adams had drafted the Mass. Constitution and had very definite ideas as to the proper organization of a "mixed" government. His interactions with Madison and Hamilton in Philadelphia might have been very interesting indeed.
5. Assuming that Adams is either dead or not fit for elective office in 1788 but the Constitution is adopted on schedule and GW is the clear choice for President, I would say that the VP will have to be a Northerner and the most likely choices are John Jay of New York (who came in second to Adams in OTL) or John Hancock of Mass.

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I guess the questions would be whether Adams would survive, in-tact, in the tower. Also, depending on when the British would release him anyway, as Falastur said, he would be a useful bargaining chip. .

In all honesty, i'm a little iffy on the whole John Jay appointment to VP, even through he came in third, he is still a good choice.
But considering butterflies, even in a few short years, i would have mores- advocated John Hancock.

Edit: so many Johns, aren't there.
 
Isn't his son, John Quincy Adams, with him on this trip? If he survives, the experience could have a very interesting influence on his personality and later political beliefs.
 
Isn't his son, John Quincy Adams, with him on this trip? If he survives, the experience could have a very interesting influence on his personality and later political beliefs.

oooh... very interesting. It´d be a completely different person.

For some reason it feels like a 19th century dystopian TL
 
No direct french intervention in the American revolution.

They loose then, even given the appaling way the British generals dithered with out French help the rebels loose.

My feeling are that the French intervene anyway, cos they are looking for payback for the Seven Year war and the lose of face that caused. Franklin will be able to pull together the support in France without Adams.

I am not sure that Adams makes a good chip, the other leaders know they are for the chop if the Brits win, so they must continue the war and hope to be victorious.

Unlike other American diplomats captured Adams has signed the Declaration of Independence, so is a traitor to his King. I would not rate his chances of surviving the Tower.
 

Dirk_Pitt

Banned
No direct french intervention in the American revolution.

No. Franklin was already there and was far more popular and therefore much more likely to get the job done. Adams was the almost exact opposite of Franklin. In fact a good analogy for the two would be Franklin was the cool kid in school and Adams was the nerd. In fact Franklin believed that Adams would be a hindrance in France although I don't know much on this topic to be a good judge. The main butterflies would come from 1788 and beyond. A less foreign policy capable Federalist President might have declared war on France!
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
No direct french intervention in the American revolution.

Actually, this scenario makes French intervention more likely rather than less likely. The French pretty much hated John Adams.

However, it DOES make it far less likely that the American revolutionaries will obtain critical financial loans from the Dutch in 1780, and that has the potential to massively impact the course of the war.
 
France has already entered the war by the time Adams is captured. It should be noted that during the negotiations Franklin saw Adams as complicating negotiations not helping them. Franklin was negotiating the possible acquisition of Canada despite the fact the US didn't have a single soldier in that province. Britain was open to the idea France and Spain much less so.
 
Franklin floated the idea to the British negotiators to help get the conference started. There were various ideas about the US getting its northern border extended across the Ontario peninsula. The French and Spanish would only accept that if the US agreed to a western border at the Allegheny and Appalachians. Adams brought the issue to a head to begin negotiations when he and I believe John Jay to begin bi-lateral negotiations with the British instead of waiting for France and Spain to join the table.
 
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