AHC: Surviving Poland by 1900?

RookieHistorian · Sep 25, 2011

Using whatever POD's you can (that are within reason for this case) create a Poland that manages to survive all the way up to 1900. It does not have to be a major power, but it must possess at least 85% of what makes up 1939 Poland.

Bonus points go to whomever can manage it in a way that leaves both Russia and Germany disunited.

Scipio Africanus · Sep 25, 2011

RookieHistorian said:
Using whatever POD's you can (that are within reason for this case) create a Poland that manages to survive all the way up to 1900. It does not have to be a major power, but it must possess at least 85% of what makes up Modern Poland today.

Bonus points go to whomever can manage it in a way that leaves both Russia and Germany disunited.

This doesn't make much sense since much of modern Poland his only been Polish since 1945, and before that had been German for the better part of a millenium. Might I suggest using 85% of Poland in August 1939, which is I believe a better representation of Polands medieval and early modern borders?
As for how to do that, I'm not sure, German history is more my thing

.
Scipio

Enigmajones · Sep 25, 2011

And before that it was Polish. You could have the Polish conquer Prussia instead of the Teutons. Without the Teutons, the Polish conquer Prussia and hold the territory. Brandenburg may become powerful and other powers may grow out of the Holy Roman Empire, but a Catholic Poland with control of Prussia, which also becomes and remains catholic. But without Prussia, there is serious destabilization of the the prospects of German unification. Another possibility is splinter Polish states, possibly resulting in a world with more than one Polish country.

wolf_brother · Sep 25, 2011

Pick a POD and run with it.

MSZ · Sep 26, 2011

You would need a middle ages era POD for Poland to keep 85% of its present day territory, as it's the only way for it to keep a Oder-Neisse border. No mongol invasion, or Henry IV surviving and succeding in future wars with Brandenburg (to regain Lubushland and Pommerania) are kind of standard scenarios.

A strong, centralized Piast Poland with broad access to sea could then keep eastern Germany disunited just as France kept western Germany disunited for centuries. Also, a Piast Poland could mean no PLC, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania staying independent, it's center of power moving from Vilinius/Samogitia to Kiev/Ukraine and developing into essentialy a Ukraine-wank state (next to Muscovy; maybe Novogorod).

ctesiphon · Sep 26, 2011

Empress Elizabeth of Russia does not die in 1762 (POD). As an effect, the Russians destroy Prussia and Frederick II abdicates and commits suicide. Prussia (as in, the historical province of Prussia, a.k.a. East Prussia or Ducal Prussia) is Russian war gain and gets traded with Russians' protectorate Poland for some of it's eastern lands, and perhaps official control over Courland. Should be over 85%, or somewhere near, but i didn't do the math.

Without Prussia there are no partitions, and Russia has no reason to annex Poland - it already controls it as a protectorate, also, it's likely too much to grab at once, even for them.

Later it reforms and is able to last to 1900 no problem. Fin.

informationfan · Sep 26, 2011

Hi,

how survive this poland in the 19th century?
austria an russia will do 50:50 and poland is finished
game over

the question was, how will poland (from 1939!) will at last survive with 85% of its borders... this mean the poland with 85% of 1939 is much bigger as todays poland.

sorry, the plot to do so isn´t possile with 1762... if you start in 1000 or 1100, maybe, but later? no way

Enigmajones · Sep 26, 2011

In 1222, have the Order of Dobrzyn succeed against the Prussians and the Wends, by forcibly christianizing the pagans. The Pagans are ruled over by the polish and eventually assimilated. The Teutons still have the Livonian State, so the German state goes in Livonia.

RookieHistorian · Sep 26, 2011

informationfan said:
Hi,

how survive this poland in the 19th century?
austria an russia will do 50:50 and poland is finished
game over

the question was, how will poland (from 1939!) will at last survive with 85% of its borders... this mean the poland with 85% of 1939 is much bigger as todays poland.

sorry, the plot to do so isn´t possile with 1762... if you start in 1000 or 1100, maybe, but later? no way

Any large Polish state that tries to exist past 1762 would likely need some big major help from an outside power, as the way I see it, Austria, Russia, and Prussia will likely work together to crush any such state.

Which is why I personally see any TL with a decent sized Poland requires either a weaker or more divided Germany/Prussia, a weaker Austrian-Hungarian Empire, or a weaker/divided Russia. Not neccessarily all three at once, as that incites Polishwank (which is not neccessarily bad...they deserve some wanks too

) but I think at least one of them is required for Poland to have the best chance of surving all the way up to 1900.

Enigmajones said:
In 1222, have the Order of Dobrzyn succeed against the Prussians and the Wends, by forcibly christianizing the pagans. The Pagans are ruled over by the polish and eventually assimilated. The Teutons still have the Livonian State, so the German state goes in Livonia.

That sounds interesting. I may have to look into that...unless someone beats me to the punch

EDIT: Interesting tidbit. It seems the Ottoman's were the only state to not recognize the partitioning of Poland between the three powers. They even kept a place open in their diplomatic corps for an ambassador from Poland. I wonder....hmmm...

The Kiat · Sep 26, 2011

Weaken or eliminate Russia, that should do it. After all, the Bear was going around eating all his neighbors.

Tursiops Amicus · Sep 26, 2011

Scipio Africanus said:
This doesn't make much sense since much of modern Poland his only been Polish since 1945, and before that had been German for the better part of a millenium.

Enigmajones said:
And before that it was Polish

And before that was germanic, and so on

If you can move backward or forward in time you always will find what you are looking for...

It's a sort of childish discussion: my dxxx is bigger than yours!!!

Enigmajones · Sep 26, 2011

Tursiops Amicus said:
And before that was germanic, and so on

If you can move backward or forward in time you always will find what you are looking for...

It's a sort of childish discussion: my dxxx is bigger than yours!!!

Yes it was Germanic. I never said it wasn't. But before it was German, which is different from Germanic, regardless of what the Kaiser and the Nazi's thought.

thrashing_mad · Sep 27, 2011

Tursiops Amicus said:
And before that was germanic, and so on

If you can move backward or forward in time you always will find what you are looking for...

It's a sort of childish discussion: my dxxx is bigger than yours!!!

13th century, with established feudal states, is quite different from Dark Ages/migration period though, and we could easily see Poland hold on Silesia, Lubusz land, and parts of Pomerania under right circumstances with such PoD.

Since going back in time to find a PoD suitable for OP requirements is the whole point of this thread, you may be confused as to what 'childish discussion' is.

ctesiphon · Sep 27, 2011

Oh, I misread the OP, it's 85% of 1939 borders. I assumed it's today since it was supposed to be a challenge.

EDIT: oh, it was edited in. Well, this works for both variants.

informationfan said:
austria an russia will do 50:50 and poland is finished

Why would they?

Razgriz 2K9 · Sep 27, 2011

Well for the most part, Poland continuing to hold Prussia as a vassal would help somewhat in the matter. But the primary matter would be to ensure that Poland is able to resist Russian influence, since from the period between 1683 (the Siege of Vienna) to 1772 (The First Partition) Poland-Lithuania had fallen from major European Power to a de-facto Russian Protectorate. Another contribuiting factor to at least delaying, if not outright preventing the Partitions would be for the Ottomans to actually defeat the Russians in the 7th Russo-Turkish War (1768-1774). I think with that, Poland should be able to maintain at least most, if not all its territorial integrity to see itself past 1900.

Janprimus · Sep 28, 2011

Enigmajones said:
And before that it was Polish. You could have the Polish conquer Prussia instead of the Teutons. Without the Teutons, the Polish conquer Prussia and hold the territory. Brandenburg may become powerful and other powers may grow out of the Holy Roman Empire, but a Catholic Poland with control of Prussia, which also becomes and remains catholic. But without Prussia, there is serious destabilization of the the prospects of German unification. Another possibility is splinter Polish states, possibly resulting in a world with more than one Polish country.

If the Polish manage to conquer Prussia and maybe even the other Baltic tribes, that could be interesting. Less periods of division between various branches of the house of Piast might help too; maybe the High Duke of Poland (in later division the High Duke was in name the most senior and first of the Polish duke manages) to keep their Royal Crown.

No Prussia doesn't have to destabilize the prospects of German Unification, one could just as well claim that it will make the process more stabile, however it depends on which states control this 'Germany' or maybe it is united early on, before it really fell apart.

Razgriz 2K9 · Sep 28, 2011

If anything, Polish Prussia could serve to hamper German Unification a bit, though if anything, Saxony or Hannover could rise to take Prussia's place in that timeline.

Enigmajones · Sep 28, 2011

But without a German Prussia, it could lead to a German Livonia, which would be Terra Mariana. Polish Prussia would definitely help Poland in the long run, and without a German Prussia, who pushes for german Unification but the Austrians, which is totally open to butterflies.

history nerd · Sep 29, 2011

here is an alternate idea... what if poland-lithuania is able to maintain controll of muscovy during the time of troubles, thus expanding their territory significantly and getting rid of russia entirely?

kasumigenx · Sep 29, 2011

Enigmajones said:
But without a German Prussia, it could lead to a German Livonia, which would be Terra Mariana. Polish Prussia would definitely help Poland in the long run, and without a German Prussia, who pushes for german Unification but the Austrians, which is totally open to butterflies.

Or a Norse Livonia because Scandinavia is more near than Germany.